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Utah Economic Report
The Governor’s Utah Economic SummitApril 11, 2013
Natalie GochnourAssociate DeanDavid Eccles School of BusinessUniversity of Utah
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Utah’s race to the top
U.S. economy “bumbling” along
What should keep us awake at night?
City/state reborn
Outline
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A tribute to economic leadership
Utah’s race to the top
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
-5.1%
-0.6%
2.3%
3.3% 3.5%
Utah Job Growth Rate
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
(80,000)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
(63,837)
(7,217)
27,030 39,031 43,700
Utah Job Creation
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
36,766
51,100
105,645 109,041
90,062
76,998 73,000
Utah Number of Unemployed
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
7.6%
8.0%
6.7%
5.7%5.2%
Utah Unemployment Rate
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
19,600
4,500
2,300
5,000
10,400
Utah Net Migration
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-4.5%
3.0%4.6% 5.0%
4.2%
Utah Personal Income Growth Rate
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -
5
10
15
20
25
$10.3
$13.8
$19.0 $19.1$21.0
Utah Exports
Source: World Trade Center Utah
(in billions)
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) -
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
10.5 9.3
8.8
12.7
16.0
Utah Dwelling Unit Permits
Source: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Revenue Assumptions Working Group
(in thousands)
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
-8.8%
-7.3%
6.7% 6.9%
4.0%
Utah Retail Sales Growth Rate
Source: Utah State Tax Commission and Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget
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Top Seven Job Growth States
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
January 2012 – January 2013
North Carolina
Washington
Colorado
Nevada
Texas
Utah
North Dakota
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
2.2%
2.3%
2.5%
2.5%
2.9%
3.1%
5.4%
Year-Over Percent Change
Utah has the 2nd fastest growing
economy
U.S. average = 1.5%
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Utah Job Growth by IndustryFebruary 2013
Government
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health
Prof. and Business
Financial Activities
Information
Trade, Trans, Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Natural Resources
Total
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
0.3
2.6
7.8
3.2
4.4
6.2
11.54.5
3.5
6.7
0.0
4.0Chart Title
Year-Over Percent Change
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
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A criticism of economic leadership
U.S. economy bumbling along…
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-- Mark Twain
The difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and lightning bug.
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Job Losses in Recent Recessions
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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U.S. New Monthly Payroll Jobs
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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U.S. Unemployment Rate by Duration
Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Besides North Korea
What should keep us awake at night?
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Fiscal insanity
Utah education warning signs
Certain uncertainty
Risks
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Fiscal Insanity
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Fiscal Crises Naming Conventions
• Debt ceiling stand off (August 2011) ANDREA
• Super Committee deadline (December 2011) BARRY
• Fiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012) CHANTEL
• Fiscal cliff (January 2013) DORIAN
• Start of sequestration (March 2013) ERIN
• Debt ceiling revisited (May 2013) FERNAD
• Next crisis GABRIELLE
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Utah Fiscal Checklist
Balanced Budget
Requirement
Line Item Veto
AAA Bond Rating
Rainy Day Fund
Appropriation
Limitation
BondLimitation
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U.S. Fiscal Checklist
Balanced Budget
Requirement
Line Item Veto
AAA Bond Rating
Rainy Day Fund
Appropriation
Limitation
BondLimitation
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Utah Education Warning Signs
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Percent Utahns with Bachelor’s Degree of HigherBy Age Cohort: 2011
25-34 35-44 45-64 65 plus TOTAL20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
26.0%
28.0%
30.0%
32.0%
34.0%
29.3%
31.5%
30.5%
26.4%
30.4%
Source: American Community Survey, 2011
Utah College Completion Rates are Falling
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Utah’s Math Test Score Rankings are Headed in Wrong Direction
1992 1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 2009 20110
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
12 12
18
28
24
2827
19
1012
1918
2930
2526
4th Grade 8th Grade
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation’s Report Card
Utah’s rank among states
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Utah Ranks Last Among Peer States
US
New
Jers
ey
New
Ham
pshi
re
Verm
ont
Min
neso
ta
Wyo
min
g
Sout
h Dak
ota
Uta
h200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
2 3 20
23
25
31
Source: Utah Foundation and National Assessment of Educational Progress
4th Grade Reading Test Scores: 2009
5
National
Rank
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Certain Uncertainty
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Unchartered waters
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The future is bright
A City/State Reborn
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