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Goal-oriented modulation as a model for dealing with problems of sustainable
development
René Kemp
UNU-MERIT, ICIS & DRIFT
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Key problems for GoSD
Dissent Uncertainty about long-term effects Distributed control Changing wants Determination of short-term steps for long-
term change Danger of lock-in Political myopia
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Dealing with dissent through
Problem structuring Formulation of shared goals for
functional systems Exploration of different visions
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Uncertainty about long-term effects Calls for risk assessment, technology
assessment for learning Flexible designs, adaptive
management, portfolios and capital-extensive solutions for increasing the capacity to react
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Changing wants calls for
Flexible options Diversity of options
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Distributed control calls for
Joint decision-making and network management but this is not enough: interactive governance should be concerned with expressing long-term aims and the management of transition processes
The shaping of society from below
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Determination of short-term steps for long-term change
Integrated assessment of futures Path analysis leading to the
identification of robust options, goals and short-term actions that generate useful actions
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Danger of lock-in suggests
Use of portfolios Prudence
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Political myopia
Political commitment to transitions Use of transition agendas, adaptive
programmes for system innovation
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Reflexivity
First-order reflexivity Second-order reflexivity: governance
which understands itself as part of actions-effects feedback loops
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Reflexive strategies injecting feedback in actor-rule system dynamics
Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds
Intended and unintended effectsin material, social, and cultural worlds
Actor structuring: Group formation, socialization
System structuringand restructuring
Governance System: CulturalFrames, social institutions, physical structures and tools
Actors
Strategy building
Actions
Processstructuring
BroaderLandscape: Material conditions, externalagents, larger socio-culturalcontexts
Transdisciplinary knowledge production
Participatory goal formulation
Strategic experiments
Interactive strategy development
Anticipation of long-term systemic effects
Transdisciplinary knowledge production
Participatory goal formulation
Strategic experiments
Interactive strategy development
Anticipation of long-term systemic effects
Source: Voss and Kemp (2005) based on Burns and Flam (1987)
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The Dutch model of Transition management
…. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and
visions… in which different visions and routes are explored:
system innovation and optimisation
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Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic
Political margins for
change
State of development of solutions
Societal goals
Sustainability visions
Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal)
Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic)
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Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management.
... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and control policies
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2050 Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’
2020‘Strategic goals’10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic
2003 2 à 3 %
‘Transition Paths’
C. Biofuels
B. Pyrolysis
A. Gasification
ExpvE
OS
Exp
Exp EOS: experiments : R&D
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No definitive choice is made as to technological means
Different routes are investigated Decisions are made in an interactive
and iterative way Support is temporary Each option has to proof its worth Technology choices are made at the
decentralized level
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Incrementalism Goal-oriented modulation —of which TM is an example
Planning
Key actors Private and public actors
Private and public actors
Bureaucrats and experts
Steering philosophy
Partisan mutual adaptation
Modulation of developments to collectively chosen goals, government is facilitator & mediator
Hierarchy
Structuring form
Polyarchy Heterarchy
Hierarchy
Role for anticipation
Limited (no long-term goals)
Dynamic anticipation of desired futures as basis for interaction
Future is anticipated and implemented
Type of learning
First-order: learning about quick fixes for remedying immediate ills
Second-order and first-order (rethink following problem structuring)
First-order (instrumental)
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Mechanism for coordination
Markets and emergent institutionalisation
Markets, network management, institutionalisation (both designed and emergent)
Hierarchy (top-down)
Degree of adaptivity
Adaptive Highly adaptive thanks to especially created adaptive capacity
Hardly adaptive
Role for strategy and plans
Limited role Important role for goals and strategic experiments for exploring social trajectories, as apart of adaptive programmes for system innovation.
Plans with steps
Interest mediation/ conflict resolution
Individual gains for everyone
Rewards for innovators, phase out of non-sustainable practices through markets and politics
Little mediation (implementation and enforcement)
Type of change that is sought
Incremental, non-disruptive change
System innovation and system improvement
Predetermined outcome
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Transition management as a form of context steering through anticipatory and adaptive governance that is explicitly concerned with learning and institutional change, which relies on variation and selection for dealing with problems of steering.
is perhaps the third way that political theorists have long been looking for
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1. The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism)2. The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to
overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes)
3. Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies)
4. Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability
5. Less domination by vested interests: opening up of policy process
What’s new about transition management?