Download - GNSS National implementation plans
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GNSS Nationalimplementation plans
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20122
Index
Purpose of the plans
Content of the plans
CBA
Main outcomes
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20123
Purpose of the plans
To provide an instrument to countries to support them in the elaboration of a “roadmap for the implementation of EGNOS use in the civil aviation” from the state viewpoint
Development of a “generic” toolIts elaboration for 8 countries
The plan is an enabler: what has to be done, who and when, costs and benefits
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20124
Content of the plans (1) State of play:
– Main stakeholders/decision-makers– Status/plan of air navigation infrastructures
(non-GNSS, GNSS, EGNOS)– Present use and operations– Strategy and plans– Service needs (driven by present use/operations,
strategy/plans, traffic growth)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20125
Content of the plans (2)
Analysis of impacts:– Identification of impacts generated by EGNOS in
terms of: Air transport services quality and demand, Industrial benefits, Environmental benefits, Strategic benefits
– Prioritization and ranking (from 1 to 9) to evaluate the social benefits
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20126
Content of the plans (3) Economical feasibility:
– CBA (cost, economic benefits, social benefits)– Output (financial flows, indirect benefits split,
sensitive analysis)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20127
Content of the plans (4) Action plan:
– Actions (what has to be done and why, who has to do and when)
– Recommendations
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20128
SIRAJ plans (1)
Development of National implementation plans for EGNOS services implementation (*):
In Civil AviationFor 8 countries10 years time lag (2011 – 2021) (**)
(*) sub-regional elements will be considered(**)time lag decided on the basis of a trade-off to ensure robustness
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 20129
SIRAJ plans (2)
Countries:AlgeriaCôte d’IvoireGabonJordanMauritaniaMoroccoSaudi ArabiaSenegal
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201210
It is a proposed roadmap for EGNOS exploitation in Civil Aviation, in the addressed country, in the 10-years period 2011 – 2021.
The GNSS Implementation Plan takes into account the particular needs of the country in the Civil Aviation domain, and the social and economical benefits that the use of EGNOS will generate.
SIRAJ plans (3)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201211
Following a scoping out of the state of play, of navigation infrastructure needs and of the possibility to introduce EGNOS technology, the GNSS Implementation Plan elaborates the country shared policy to facilitate the EGNOS introduction and use.
For this reason, its preparation required various iterations in close interaction with the country stakeholders, for reviewing, discussing and commenting it.
SIRAJ plans (4)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201212
SIRAJ plans – Main sources
1. Info from countries (answers to questionnaire)2. Info from METIS (MEDA countries, non-MEDA countries)3. ACI (Airports Council International) Global Traffic Forecast
2008-20274. SIRAJ outcomes. e.g.:
– Telespazio market analysis on various secondary sources– Telespazio analysis of impacts (see slide)– Assumptions shared with EU ANSP on the basis of EU
model purposely customized for the SIRAJ countries
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201213
SIRAJ plans – Country status in civil aviation
Main stakeholders for Civil Aviation (i.e. decision-makers)
State of play of Air Navigation infrastructure (non GNSS and GNSS):
–Current status –Planned evolutions
Country strategy in Civil Aviation (i.e. available plan and regulations, Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and Regional Groups, Bilateral agreements of interest)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201214
SIRAJ plans – Service needs
Service needs:– Market size (country aviation market size, number of
airport and traffic)– Use of GNSS/ GNSS strategy (i.e. operation needs, status/
plan for GNSS procedures development, strategy in relation to GNSS use)
– Opportunities and issues (peculiar characteristics of the country in relation to SBAS LPV, airports not equipped with conventional navigation aid infrastructures,…)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 201215
SIRAJ plans – Analysis of impacts
Evaluation of impacts generated by EGNOS in the country reliable estimation of social benefits
EC “IMPACT ASSESSMENT GUIDELINES” (SEC(2009) 92) for the investigation of the potential effects of EGNOS service introduction
Impacts prioritization and ranking (inputs from questionnaire and sub-regional elements) estimation of social benefits
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA
Initiative: exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain
EGNOS SoL service
SBAS LPV application
At country level and from the state point of view10 year period, time lag 2011-2021Costs
Benefits (direct and indirect/social)
Financial flows
Key drivers (sensitivity)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Exploitation of EGNOS in the Civil Aviation domain:
EGNOS service - EGNOS SoL service
Business case: SBAS LPV application
At country level and from the state point of view
Economical feasibilityValue chain
EGNOS Operator
EGNOS SoL SP
ANSP AirlineIndustries
Research entities
State
Institutional/Safety-of-life market:
ASNP - Regulated entity (acting for the Public Authorities)
Airlines - final users
Industries/Research entities - Map providers, Terminal/ receivers manufacturers/ integrators, IT companies, Certification entities, Procedure designers, etc.
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA methodology
10 year periodTime lag 2011-2021
Costs for the state: EGNOS SoL opex Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure Benefits for the state: Direct benefits: taxes Indirect benefits (based on impact analysis and prioritization)
CBA outcomes: Yearly financial flows and NPV Sensitivity analysis
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA model
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (1)
Capex (i.e. the costs for the necessary infrastructures, incl. certification) = 0Opex (i.e. the cost for operating the EGNOS SoL service) > 0 (*) , afforded by the states. It is assumed that operation costs to provide EGNOS SoL to a certain area are shared among the states included the area. This implies an agreement on cost-sharing between the states, then each state identifies a suitable origin of funds decides and/ or applies its specific charging mechanism (how to charge, who to charge).
States pay for EGNOS opex starting from the year T0 of EGNOS SoL FOC
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
EGNOS opex evaluation:– METIS min/ max value for EGNOS opex for MEDA
countries (Algeria, Jordan and Morocco)– For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the EGNOS
usage (i.e. number of landings) compared to Morocco - states are divided into 3 categories considering their traffic compared to Morocco (less, equal, major)
Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS costs (2)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions - EGNOS FOC
EGNOS FOC T0 tentative dates just for CBA elaboration purposes:–2012, for MEDA countries (i.e. Morocco, Algeria and Jordan) in line with the METIS assumptions–2015, for African/ non-MEDA countries (i.e. Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Senegal)–2018, for Middle-East/ non- MEDA and Arabic Peninsula countries (i.e. Saudi Arabia)
EGNOS adoption, 1 year after EGNOS FOC in the best case for all countries
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (1)
capex of the EGNOS local monitoring infrastructure/ system (for independent monitoring of the signal, for interference monitoring…)
Evaluation using:–Using METIS costs for MEDA countries–For non-MEDA countries on the basis of the number of airports compared to Morocco
It is assumed that the capex of such monitoring infrastructure/system is afforded by the State, while the opex is afforded by the ANSP starting from the year before the introduction time
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Capex of the local EGNOS monitoring infrastructure (2)
Today such infrastructures is not mandatory, nevertheless it has to be considered that, according to ICAO, each State is responsible for the Air Navigation Service provision over its Country. Additionally the ICAO SARPS standards state the any State that approves GNSS-based operations, also based on EGNOS use, should ensure the recording and retention of the corresponding relevant data. Than, it can be expected that the States will equip themselves of their local infrastructure/ system for monitoring the quality of the GPS/EGNOS service provided over the country area
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (1)
Direct benefits consider the economic revenues for each state directly resulting from civil aviation activities. Their estimation is done by applying to the identified tax base (the value of the foreseen investments) the relevant country tax profile
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Indirect/ social benefits are evaluated by using the shadow price methodology applied in METIS, with further elaborations, specifically tailored on civil aviation and customized for each country (to take into accounts the relevant specificities). Evaluation varies from:–number of landings–GDP–benefit importance using the impacts prioritization and ranking (air transport services quality and demand, industrial benefits, environmental benefits, strategic benefits)
Economical feasibilityCBA assumptions – Benefits (2)
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Economical feasibilityOutput example – sensitivity
Dependence of the economic feasibility from key parameters, to:–Take into account of the assumptions–Support the definition of actions
Min/max+5 years+/- growth+/-1 %
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Action planOpportunities
Recommendations
Proposed actions, actors, and timing
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Algeria (1)
Algeria base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)
Air transport services quality and demand,
0,3
Industrial benefits, 0,2
Environmental benefits, 0,2
Strategic benefits, 0,3
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Algeria (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (13.0 M€)
-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffi c
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
Worst case Best case
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Côte d'Ivoire (1)
Côte d’Ivoire base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)
Industrial benefits; 0,12
Environmental benefits; 0,02
Strategic benefits; 0,06
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Côte d'Ivoire (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (-0.2 M€)
-0,08 -0,06 -0,04 -0,02 0,00 0,02
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffic
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Gabon (1)
Gabon base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)
Industrial benefits; 0,99Environmental
benefits; 0,25
Strategic benefits; 0,50
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Gabon (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (2.25 M€)
-1,80 -1,60 -1,40 -1,20 -1,00 -0,80 -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffi c
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Jordan (1)
Jordan base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)
Air transport services quality and demand;
0,06
Industrial benefits; 0,05
Environmental benefits; 0,07
Strategic benefits; 0,05
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Jordan (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (2.5 M€)
-1,3 -1,1 -0,9 -0,7 -0,5 -0,3 -0,1 0,2
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffi c
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
Worst case Best case
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Mauritania (1)
Mauritania base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)
Industrial benefits; 0,14
Environmental benefits; 0,01
Strategic benefits; 0,07
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Mauritania (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (-0.3 M€)
-0,07 -0,06 -0,05 -0,04 -0,03 -0,02 -0,01 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffi c
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Morocco (1)
Morocco base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2012-2021) (M€)
Environmental benefits; 0,3
Air transport services quality and demand;
0,6
Industrial benefits; 0,3
Strategic benefits; 0,6
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Morocco (2)Delta NPV vs base case (9.7 M€)
-6,0 -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffic
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
Worst case Best case
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Saudi Arabia (1)
Saudi Arabia base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2018-2021) (M€)
Environmental benefits; 4,5
Air transport services quality and demand;
0,6
Industrial benefits; 1,7
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Saudi Arabia (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (52.8 M€)
-30,0 -25,0 -20,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta discount rate
Delta traffic
Delta year of adoption
M€
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Senegal (1)
Senegal base case - Cumulated indirect benefits split (2015-2021) (M€)
Industrial benefits; 0,13
Environmental benefits; 0,04
Strategic benefits; 0,06
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Senegal (2)
Delta NPV vs base case (-0.15 M€)
-0,25 -0,20 -0,15 -0,10 -0,05 0,00 0,05
Delta EGNOS opex
Delta traffi c
Delta discount rate
Delta year of adoption
M€
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Main outcomes –Key messages (1)
Heterogeneous state-of-play and strategies:– Different Conference/Commissions, ICAO Regions and
Regional Groups– Sub-regional/ bilateral agreements for some countries
(e.g. AEFMP, EMCAA, cooperations)– ICAO Regional Groups responsible for strategies for
GNSS– Each State responsible for implementation
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Main outcomes –Key messages (2)
Heterogeneous service needs, in terms of:– Market needs (air traffic movements/ trends)– GNSS based operations implementation/ adoption (e.g.
GNSS RNAV/RNP approaches)– Awareness/ knowledge (e.g. questionnaire feeding)– Interest– Status/ plan of implementation of ICAO Regional
Groups strategy
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Main outcomes –Key messages (3)
Tool for countries and EU Results to be evaluated under regional considerations Robustness depends on the assumptions Re-elaboration/review the assumptions as long as they are
defined/understood:– Plan time lag– EGNOS costs/FOC– Traffic (direct benefits)– Impact/economical parameters (indirect benefits)– Airports implementation/evolution– Cost sharing/allocation
SIRAJ Workshop , Rabat, 28 May 2012
Main outcomes –Recommendations (1)
Consolidate EGNOS service coverage in terms of technical, economical and planning aspects, programmatic/institutional/legal framework
Only in few cases EGNOS costs have a significant impact on the CBA
The delay in adoption has a significant impact on the CBA in all cases (*)
(*) Recommendation is to anticipate development of enablers to reduce the delay of adoption, including implementation of strategy