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TOURISM AUSTRALIA GLOBAL MARKET MONITOR
February 2010
Editionvii
TheTourismAustraliaGlobalMarketMonitorisproducedquarterlytoprovideanupdateonthe
currentstateofAustraliantourism.TourismAustralia(TA)drawsonarangeofavailabledataand
summarisessurveyresponsesfromdomesticandinternationaltourismsuppliersandsellers.Thank
youtoallwhocontributedtothisreport.
ExecutiveSummary
DespitetheglobalfinancialcrisisandtheoutbreakoftheH1N1virus,Australiantourismmanagedto
defytheglobaldownturnlastyear.TAManagingDirectorAndrewMcEvoysaidGiventhatglobal
tourismfellby4%in2009,Australiaperformedcomparativelywell.Inboundtouristarrivalswere
unchangedin2009comparedto2008.
January2010arrivalsareestimatedtoremainflatcomparedtoJanuary2009reflectingthisyearslater
timingofChineseNewYear(i.e.14Februarycomparedto26Januaryin2009).
Figure1
%
change
on
last
year
in
international
arrivals
by
month
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan09 Feb09 Mar09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 Jul09 Aug09 Sep09 Oct09 Nov09 Dec09 Jan10(e)
%changeoverthesamemont
hinthepreviousyear
ChangeininternationalarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
Nb.January2009resultswereboostedbytheearliertimingofChineseNewYear,whileApril2009 resultswillbeboostedbythelatertimingofEasterthisyear.
(e) Tourism Australiaestimatesonpartialdata
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2BeyondFebruary,thereareclearsignsofrecoveryandimprovementsinconsumerconfidencein
NorthAsiawithChinaandKoreashowingsignsofgrowth.SouthEastAsiaappearsupbeathowever
Indiaindicatorsaremixed.ThereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidenceintheUK,Europe,USand
Canadaalthoughthecontinualimprovementofconsumersentimentworldwideisconstrainedbyhigh
unemployment,lossesinwealthandcautiouslending.
Growthreturned
to
international
tourism
in
the
last
quarter
of
2009
contributing
to
better
than
expectedfullyearresults.TheTourismForecastingCommittee(TFC)hasforecastamodestrecovery
acrossallkeysectorsoftheAustraliantourismindustryin2010.Strongcompetitionfromworldwide
destinations(shorthaulinparticular)continuestochallengethecompetitiveadvantagesenjoyedby
Australiaoverthepastyear.Arrivalsarenowforecasttogrowbetween3%and4%in2010.
TheappreciationoftheAustraliandollaraffectsAustraliantourism.Consumertravelbuyinghabits
reflectpricesensitivityandincludelastminutebookings.
Theglobalaviationindustryreportedimprovedtrafficvolumesinthelastquarterof2009.Global
capacitycontinuestorise,boostedbyworldwideincreasesinbothfrequenciesandcapacityinthelow
costsector.
The
Australian
aviation
industry
is
performing
relatively
well.
International
capacity
to
Australiahasincreasedby4.7%althoughdomestictrafficfell2.6%fromJanuarytoNovember2009.
Industrysectorssuchasbusinessevents,accommodation,attractionsandinboundtouroperatorsare
reportingsignsofimprovedbusiness.Industryfeedbackonenquiriesandforwardbookingsisalso
optimistic.
Theaccommodationsectorcontinuestobechallengedbydecreasingyieldsandshortbookinglead
times.Attractionsoperatorshaveexpressedmixedopinionsand,likeothersectors,areimpactedby
lastminutebookingswhichmakeforecastingdifficult.
InboundTour
Operators
are
confident
moving
into
2010
despite
strong
competition
from
short
haul
destinations.ManyAsianinboundtouroperatorscontinuetocitethehighAustraliandollarandairline
seatcapacityastheirprimaryreasonforlowerbookings,howevertherearefewercancellationsacross
allmarketsduetothedeclineofpandemicinfluenzaH1N1.
Whiledomestictourismcontinuestobe75%ofthemarket,itremainshighlycompetitivewithtrends
indicatethatAustraliansaretravellinglessforfewernightswithinAustralia.Australiaspositive
economicoutlookissupportedbyimprovedconsumerconfidencerates.Thecostsofbothdomestic
andoverseasholidaysarerisingandtheappreciationoftheAustraliandollaraddsfurthercompetition
fordomestictourism.
Whilstthere
are
positive
signs
of
aturning
point
in
tourism
for
Australia
in
2010,
it
is
not
yet
clear
the
timeframenorthesustainabilityoftherecovery,andassuchthereiscautiousoptimism.
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3Contents
1. TOURISMAUSTRALIASCURRENTGLOBALACTIVITIES....................................................... 4
2. GLOBALTOURISMCONTEXT.............................................................................................. 6
3. RISKSTOAUSTRALIANTOURISM....................................................................................... 9
3.1 TheAustralianDollar......................................................................................................... 9
3.2 ImpactsoftheEconomicCrisisonAviation...................................................................... 11
3.3 OtherRiskstoInboundTourism....................................................................................... 12
4. SECTOROUTLOOKS.......................................................................................................... 13
4.1 BusinessEventsMarketOutlook...................................................................................... 13
4.2 IndustryPerspectives...................................................................................................... 13
4.3 DomesticTourismOutlook.............................................................................................. 14
5. INDIVIDUALMARKETOUTLOOKS..................................................................................... 17
5.1 UnitedStates................................................................................................................... 17
5.2 UnitedKingdom............................................................................................................... 18
5.3 NewZealand................................................................................................................... 19
5.4 Germany......................................................................................................................... 19
5.5 France............................................................................................................................. 20
5.6 Canada............................................................................................................................ 21
5.7 Ireland............................................................................................................................. 22
5.8 Japan............................................................................................................................... 22
5.9 China............................................................................................................................... 23
5.10 HongKong....................................................................................................................... 24
5.11 Korea............................................................................................................................... 25
5.12 Singapore........................................................................................................................ 25
5.13 Malaysia.......................................................................................................................... 26
5.14 India................................................................................................................................ 27
5.15 Taiwan............................................................................................................................ 28
5.16 OtherMarkets(outsidetheabove15)............................................................................. 29
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41. TOURISMAUSTRALIASCURRENTGLOBALACTIVITIESWithsomepositivesignsinrecentvisitorarrivalnumbersandareturninconsumerconfidencein
manyofourkeyinternationalmarkets,TAiscontinuingtofocusongeneratingvolumeaswellasits
traditionalbrandbuildingrole.
Routinely,and
in
line
with
market
seasonality,
the
second
half
of
the
fiscal
period
is
when
the
majority
ofourmarketingspendoccurs.Asignificantcomponentofthesecondhalfoftheyearspend,$35.6
million,willbebrandcooperativeactivitywithourkeyairlineandtradepartners.Notably,wewillalso
increaseourbudgetforFrance,withbrandmarketingincludingadvertising,PR,digitalanddirect
consumerpromotionsaswellasanumberofmajortraveltradeevents.
Inadditiontotheseexistingcampaigns,lastOctoberMinisterFergusonannouncedthat$9million
wouldbebroughtforwardfromTAs10/11budgetappropriationforimmediateactivitytoboosttravel
toAustraliafromshortandmediumhaulmarketsaswellasthedomesticbusinesseventstravel
sector.WiththismoneyTAhassecuredanadditional62campaignswithatotalvalueof$20million
with11airlinepartners,sevenstatetourismorganisations,andtworegionaltourismoffices.
TheseactivitiesincludecooperativetacticalcampaignsinNewZealand,China,HongKong,Japan,
India,Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,Vietnam,KoreaandGulfregionaswellasmarketingsupportfor
24specialcharterorsupplementaryflights,bringingmorethan7,000additionalseatsintoAustralia
fromGreaterChinaandJapaninFebruaryandMarch.
ThebudgetbringforwardwillalsoenableTAtoassisttheBusinessEventssectorrecoverywitha$2
millionprogramofinitiativeswithindustrypartnerstostimulatedomesticbusinesseventstravel.
Asstated,theseactivitieswillbeadditionaltoourplannedactivityinmajormarketswhichareas
follows:
MajorconsumercampaignsinNorthAmericaincludeAustraliaNowtargetingtheluxurysector,
phasetwoofOneWeekWalkaboutintheUS,aswellasadigitalYouthcampaignintheUSand
Canada.
IntheUK,majoractivitiesincludephasetwooftheEmiratesregionalcooponline,outdoorandradio
campaignaswellastheSingaporeAirlinescoopTVandonlinecampaign.PhasetwooftheQantas
TwoWeekWalkaboutcoopprintandonlinecampaignwilllaunchinMarch.
ForthegrowingFrancemarket,theQantasTwoWeekWalkaboutcooponlinecampaignran
throughoutJanuaryfollowedbyaSingaporeAirlinescooponlinecampaigninFebruary.TheTwo
WeekWalkabout
co
op
online
and
outdoor
campaign
in
partnership
with
FTI
Touristik
and
Singapore
AirlinesisrunninginGermanyuntilFebruary.
IntheEuropeanyouthsegment,anintegratedcampaignwaslaunchedattheCampusStudentFairin
RomeandinGermany,auniversityroadshowtotendifferentcitieswasheldduringJanuary,both
campaignspromotingAustraliaandtheWorkingHolidayVisaProgram.InFranceduringMarch,a
universityroadshowwithradiostationNRJwilltakeplacein10citiesvisitingupto20universitiesto
promoteyouthexperiencesandAustraliaasadestinationforyouthtravel.DedicatedFrenchand
GermanFacebookpageswerealsolaunched.
MajorNewZealandactivitiesincludeanAustralianExploremagazinesupplementintheNewZealand
Heraldas
well
as
amajor
promotion
on
TV3
Sunrise
in
January
and
March.
The
OZTalk
trade
and
consumerexpoisplannedforMarchandWholeofAustraliacoopcampaignwithFlightCentrewill
launchinMarch
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5ThenewandinnovativeAussieOjiCampaigntargetingwomenintheir20sand30slaunchedinJapan
usingdigital,retailengagementandPRandwillcontinuewithanincreasedemphasisonPRandsocial
mediachannels.DigitalactivitytargetingJukunensegmentandpromotionoftheSchoolExcursion
websitewillstartinFebruary.
TacticalcampaignsinChinaincludeanH1N1recoverycampaignwithQantas,PremierAussieSpecialist
campaign,Cathay
Pacific
celebrity
endorsement
promotion
and
adirect
mail
campaign
with
Visa.
The
nextphasesoftheBrandcampaigncommencedinDecemberviaprint,digitalandoutdoorinthe
primaryandsecondarymarketsandaGreaterChinaSearchEngineMarketingcampaignhas
commenced.
AGITcoopcampaignwithmajorKoreanagentsandKoreaAdventureSeekerdigitalcampaign
concludedinDecember.TheFirstTimeExperienceSeekerDigitalcampaignwaslaunchedinTaiwanin
December.
InSingapore,consumertacticalactivitiesincludeaFamilyPlaytimecampaignwithSingaporeAirlines,
VillageRoadshowandSTOpartnersinDecemberandaGreatAustralianJourneyscampaignin
Februarywith
Qantas
and
Chan
Bros.
In
Malaysia,
aGreat
Australian
Journeys
tactical
campaign
continuedwith7StateandTerritoryand11tradepartners.
IntheDomesticMarket,theNoLeaveNoLifeprogramhascontinuedtochallengeAustralianstouse
their123milliondaysofstockpiledannualleavefordomesticholidays.
NoLeaveNoLifehasprovidedapartnershipplatformthathasbeenembracedbyindustry,fromthe
largewholesalepartnersthroughtothesmallandmediumsizedoperatorscontributingtotheNo
LeaveNoLifetacticalmagazines,resultinginalevelofcooperativemarketingnotpreviouslyseenin
thedomesticmarket.
Aspart
of
the
program
TA
created
aTV
series
which
aired
on
Channel
7for
seven
weeks
from
early
December.Theseriesexceededallexpectationsattractingmorethan1.1mviewersperepisode,
winningitstimesloteveryweek,runningasthesecondmostpopularlightentertainmentshowacross
thewholeSaturdayeveningschedulewithloyaltygrowingoverthecourseoftheseries.Behindthe
scenestheresultswereequallyasstrong,bringingTAtogetherwith6StateandTerritoriesand65
operatorstopartnerintheproduction.
TradeActivities
TradeeducationandengagementcontinuestobeanimportantelementofTAsstrategy.Recenttrade
eventsattendedbyTAincludedtheInternationalLuxuryTravelMarket(ILTM)inFranceduring
Decemberas
well
as
the
European
Incentive,
Business
Travel
and
Meetings
Exhibition
(EIBTM)
in
Spain
duringDecember.InJanuary,weparticipatedatkeyEuropeantrade/consumerfairs:Vakantiebeursin
theNetherlands,CMTinGermany,MATKAinFinland,FITURinSpain,andFESPOinSwitzerland.TAwill
alsobeatBorseInternazionaledelTurismo(BIT)inItalyinFebruary,InternationaleTourismusBorse
(ITB)inGermanyandTURinSwedeninMarch.AlsoinMarch,TAwillconducttheUK/EuropeNew
ProductWorkshopsinLondonandtheSouthAfricaWorkshopsinJohannesburg,DurbanandCape
Town.
FromtheAmericas,aLatinAmericafamiliarisationvisitwillbeinSydneyinApril,OzTalk2010willbein
March2010inAucklandandtheJapanAustraliaMission(JAM)andKoreaTravelMission(KTM)2010
willheldjointlyinTokyofrom2426February.JAMwasprecededbyaSchoolExcursion&GroupTour
Workshopon
23
February.
The
Gulf
Road
Show
was
held
in
February
2010.
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6
2. GLOBALTOURISMCONTEXTAccordingtotheUnitedNationsWorldTourismOrganisation(UNWTO),globaltourismisontrackfor
recoveryafteranexceptionallychallenging2009.In2009internationalglobaltouristarrivalsdeclined
anestimated
4%
to
880
million.
This
better
than
expected
result
was
boosted
by
a2%
upswing
in
the
lastquarterof2009(following14monthsofdeclines).AsiaandthePacificandtheMiddleEastregions
ledtherecoverywithconsumerspreferringtotravelclosertohome(aresponsesimilartoprevious
crises).ApartfromAfrica,allworldregionsreporteddeclinesintrafficforthefullyear2009.Europe
wasthehardesthitregionwithAmericasandMiddleEastalsoreportinglarge(6%)declines.
Giventherecentupturnintourismfiguresandmorepositiveeconomicindicators,UNWTOforecasts
internationalarrivalswillgrow3 4%in2010.Thisrecovery,whichisstillfragileanduneven,isalso
reflectedinUNWTOsPanelofExpertsConfidenceIndex.Thisindexhasrisensteeplyin2010,reaching
nearpeaklevelsexperiencedin20042007.Businessandconsumerconfidencecontinuestoimprove
andpentupdemandisexpectedtoassistfurthergrowth.Itisanticipatedthatmajorevents(e.g.
VancouverWinter
Olympics
in
February,
South
Africa
FIFA
Football
World
Cup
in
June
and
Shanghai
WorldExpofromMaytoOctober)willalsocontributetoincreasesintourismtraffic.However,
unemploymentremainsachallenge,alongwithvolatileoilprices,securitythreats,environmental
measures(includingtaxes),reducedbusinessdemandandpotentialforthespreadofinfluenza
(H1N1).
*Provisionalfigureordata(2009*)
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7FromanAustralianperspective,theTourismForecastingCommittee(TFC)hasforecastamodest
economicrecoveryacrossallkeysectorsoftheAustraliantourismindustryin2010:
Inboundvisitors(+4.3%) TotalInboundEconomicValue TIEV(+3.3%) Domesticvisitortrips(+4.0%) Domesticvisitornights(+2.3%) TotalDomesticEconomicValueTIEV(+2.9%) Outbounddepartures(+4.1%)
Anumberoffactorswillinfluencethisrecovery:
ThevalueoftheAustraliandollaragainstthemajorworldcurrencies(inboundandoutbound)andpricecompetitivenessofAustraliasinboundtourismmarket
AirlineseatcapacityandpricediscountingonAustraliainternationalroutes Globalconsumersentiment
Inthe
Pacific
Asia
Travel
Association
(PATA),
Quarterly
Tourism
Monitor
Report
(December
2009),
Australiacontinuedtoperformbetterthanmostotherdestinationsbasedonvisitorarrivalsinthefirst
ninemonthsof2009.Australiasvisitorarrivalsdeclinedby2.0%inthefirstninemonthsoftheyear
whiledestinationssuchasNewZealand,Canada,Hawaii,USAandSingaporedeclinedby1.9,7.6,
5.9,7.8and7.6%respectively.OthersourcesrevealUKandIrelandsimilarlydeclined(8.6%and11.2%
respectively)inthefirstninemonthsof2009whileSouthAfricaincreased4.2%.
Table1:InternationalVisitorArrivalsbyCountry,December2009
JanuarySeptember %Change09/08
Touristarrivals 2008 2009 JanuarySeptember
Vanuatu
133,148 172,507 29.6Myanmar 137,613 158,210 15.0
Korea(ROK) 5,025,164 5,776,184 14.9
ChineseTaipei 2,838,887 3,166,497 11.5
NewCaledonia 174,510 193,932 11.1
CookIslands 69,992 75,691 8.1
Samoa 86,676 92,976 7.3
Malaysia 16,329,855 17,378,040 6.4
SouthAfrica 6,984,413 7,278,767 4.2
Indonesia 3,851,952 3,940,344 2.3
Kiribati
2,880 2,915 1.2
Chile 1,954,325 1,959,297 0.3
Cambodia 1,492,392 1,496,077 0.2
Tuvalu 1,209 1,199 0.8
NewZealand 1,743,045 1,709,734 1.9
Australia 4,045,496 3,965,740 2.0
Nepal 257,181 251,523 2.2
SriLanka 317,546 309,142 2.6
HongKongSAR 21,768,811 21,159,973 2.8
China
(PRC)
97,297,410 93,938,400
3.5Bhutan 16,175 15,535 4.0
Hawaii 5,180,324 4,876,919 5.9
Mexico 15,337,643 14,315,379 6.7
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9
3. RISKSTOAUSTRALIANTOURISM3.1 TheAustralianDollarTheAustraliandollarpeakedagainstmajorcurrenciesinmid2008.SinceJanuary2009,theAustralian
dollarhasbeenhighlyvolatileandhasincreasedsignificantlyacrossallmajormarkets,althoughin
mostcasesisstillbelowthepeaksof2008.TheAustraliandollarhasstrengthenedagainstmostmajor
currencieswithmanycurrenciesreportingincreasesofaround30% 40%inJanuary2010compared
toJanuary2009.
TheseimprovementsintheAustraliandollarhaveanegativeimpactontheAustraliantourismindustry
asotherdestinationsbecomemorepricecompetitive.Forallmajormarketsthishasaffectedproduct
pricing(reflectedthroughoutcommentaryinthisreportfromAustraliansellers,InboundTour
Operators,theAccommodationsectorandAustralianattractions).
Figures2,3and4 Exchangeratesofselectedforeigncurrencies,ReserveBankofAustralia(RBA),
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/histexchangerates/index.html(10February2010)
Figure2
SouthEastAsiancurrenciesto$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Singapore
Indonesian
Malaysian
India
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http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.html -
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10Figure 3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan2003
May2003
Aug2003
Nov2003
Feb
2004
May2004
Aug2004
Nov2004
Feb
2005
May2005
Aug2005
Nov2005
Feb
2006
May2006
Aug2006
Nov2006
Feb
2007
May2007
Aug2007
Nov2007
Feb
2008
May2008
Aug2008
Nov2008
Feb
2009
May2009
Aug2009
Nov2009
NorthernAsiancurrenciestothe$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia
Japan
Korea
China
HongKong
Figure 4
Westerncurrenciestothe$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
USA
Euro
NZ
UK
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113.2 ImpactsoftheEconomicCrisisonAviationAnumberoforganisationshavedeclaredthattheworstoftheeconomiccrisisappearstobeover.The
InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)reportedastrongfinishtotheendof2009withglobal
passengerdemandincreasing4.5%duringthemonthofDecember.Overalldemandforthefullyear
2009fell3.5%whileinternationalcapacityfell3.0%.Yieldshavesimilarlyimprovedinrecentmonths
(dueto
tighter
supply
demand
conditions)
but
they
still
remain
below
2008
levels.
According
to
IATA
nosignificantimprovementsareexpectedasnewaircraftaredelivered.Thistogetherwitharangeof
otherfactorsincludingrisingfuelprices(seeFigure5)willcontinuetoimpactairlineprofitability.
AccordingtoIATA,theairlineindustryisexpectedtoloseafurtherUS$5.6billionin2010followingan
estimatedUS$11billionin2009.IATADirectorGeneralandCEO,GiovanniBisignanistatesIntermsof
demand,2009goesintothehistorybooksastheworstyeartheindustryhaseverseen.Wehave
permanentlylost2.5yearsofgrowthinpassengermarketsand3.5yearsofgrowthinthefreight
business.
Figure5OilPrices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2/01/1998
2/05/1998
2/09/1998
2/01/1999
2/05/1999
2/09/1999
2/01/2000
2/05/2000
2/09/2000
2/01/2001
2/05/2001
2/09/2001
2/01/2002
2/05/2002
2/09/2002
2/01/2003
2/05/2003
2/09/2003
2/01/2004
2/05/2004
2/09/2004
2/01/2005
2/05/2005
2/09/2005
2/01/2006
2/05/2006
2/09/2006
2/01/2007
2/05/2007
2/09/2007
2/01/2008
2/05/2008
2/09/2008
2/01/2009
2/05/2009
2/09/2009
2/01/2010
Dailys
potprices(Dollarsperbarrel)
Comparing daily jet fuel prices aginst crude oil pricesSource: Energy Information Administration
Singapore Jet Fuel prices WTI Crude Oil prices
MiddleEasterncarriersreportedtheonlyregionalyearonyeartrafficgrowthin2009,asthey
continuedtogainshareoflonghaulconnectingtrafficovertheirhubs.CarriersintheAsiaPacific,
Europe
and
North
America
recorded
declines
in
traffic
during
2009,
but
Asia
Pacific
prospects
are
improvingfasterthanotherregionswithan8%improvementindemandduringDecember.In2009the
AsiaPacificregionbecametheworldslargestaviationmarketovertakingtheNorthAmericanmarket.
AccordingtoBisignaniTheglobalairtransportindustrywilltripleinsizewhenAsianstravelasmuch
asthoseintheUS.IATAslatestindustryoutlookanticipatesaverageinternationalpassengergrowth
ofaround4%in2010.
Astheglobalenvironmentcontinuestoopenup(e.g.IATAsmultilateralagreementsignedin
November2009)andcompetitionintensifies,alliancesappearmoreimportantthanever.Inrecent
monthsanumberofairlineshaveannouncedorhintedalliances(e.g.Qantas/AirAsia,Japan
Airlines/AmericanAirlines/OneWorld,Virgin/Delta/SkyTeam,Qantas/BritishAirwaysJointService
Agreement
draft
approval).
However
airline
membership
to
associations
may
start
to
be
challenged
withQantasandAirNewZealandrecentlydecidingnottorenewtheirmembershipwithAssociationof
AsiaPacificAirlines(AAPA).
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12Australiacontinuestoperformrelativelywell.AccordingtotheBureauofInfrastructure,Transportand
RegionalEconomics,internationalcapacitytoAustraliaincreased4.7%duringJanuarytoNovember
2009(comparedtothesameperiodinthepreviousyear),andAustraliandomestictrafficfell2.6%.
LoadfactorsonAustralianservicescontinuetofall(internationaldown2%duringJanuaryto
November2009).TAexpectsAustraliawillcontinuetoperformaboveglobaltrendswithinternational
capacitytoAustraliaforecasttoincreaseafurther9%in2010anddomesticcapacityexpectedto
rebound(up
5%)
in
2010.
In
December
2009
the
Australian
Government
released
its
Aviation
White
Paperfurtherhighlightingtheimportanceofthegrowingindustry.InadditionTArecentlyannounced
planstoinvestA$20millionwithairlineandtourismpartnerstocapitaliseupontheglobaleconomic
recoveryandstimulatetraveltoAustralia.
FeedbackfromAustraliasleadingairportsindicatesastrengtheningincapacityduringthelastquarter
of2009althoughconsiderablevariabilityremainsbetweenairports.Asshownintable2,domesticand
internationalseatcapacitythroughSydneyairportreboundedinthelastquarterof2009.International
capacityremainsstrongforMelbourneandAdelaideairports,whiledomesticcapacityremainsweak.
TheGoldCoastcontinuestoreportstronggrowthininternationalcapacityandimprovementsin
domesticcapacity.PerthandDarwinairportscontinuetoreportgrowthindomesticandinternational
capacitywhile
Brisbane
and
Cairns
report
declines
(but
the
outlook
is
improving).
Table2 Changeininternationalanddomesticseats 12monthstoDecember2009for
selectedairports
Source:TourismAustraliasurveyresponsesfromAustralianairports.
January F ebr ua ry Ma rch A pr il Ma y June July August September October November December
Sy dn ey Do me sti c 3% 5%
International 2% 4% 3% 5%
Melbourne Domestic 1%
International 11% 7% 17% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12%
Brisbane Domestic 4% 1% 5% 3% 0% 3%
International 2% 0%
GoldCoast Domestic 0% 8% 12% 5% 6%
International 154% 136% 150% 145% 189% 153% 101% 148% 147% 43% 46% 35%
C ai rns Do me sti c 4% 1%
InternationalAdelaide Domestic 3% 12%
International 6% 7% 1% 5% 7% 14% 16% 8% 7%
P erth Dome sti c 13% 8% 15% 13% 9% 8% 10% 7% 9% 4% 1%
International 17% 4% 9% 12% 10% 9% 18% 26% 25% 24% 17% 9%
Dar wi n Do me sti c 8% 2% 17% 30% 31% 14% 15% 9% 15% 17% 17%
International 2% 28% 18% 6% 15% 6% 18% 1%
%changeonsamemonthpreviousyear
0% 7% 5% 5% 11% 6% 2% 1% 2% 0%
1% 6% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0%
9% 5% 3% 10% 6% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4%
4% 3% 1% 3% 6% 6%
3% 3% 7% 6% 6% 6% 4% 3% 4% 5%
3% 16% 13% 0% 11% 9% 7%
2% 4% 13% 14% 1% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
45%
54%
48%
46%
46%
40%
41%
46%
48%
42%
48%
23%5% 11% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 6% 6% 2%
2% 2% 1%
1%
1%
4% 21% 24% 9%
3.3 OtherRiskstoInboundTourismWhilepandemicinfluenzaH1N1transmissionspersist,overallactivitycontinuestodeclineinmost
countries.During2009morethan212countriesandoverseasterritoriesorcommunitiesreported
confirmedcases
of
the
pandemic
influenza,
including
at
least
15,292
deaths.
In
South/South
East
Asia
andEurope,theviruscontinuestocirculatewidelyacrosstheregionbutoverallactivityisdeclining.
WhileChinahasrecentlydetectedanincreasingproportionofseasonalinfluenzaBviruses,lowlevels
ofseasonalH3N2andtypeBvirusesarealsocirculatinginpartsofAfrica,EastandSouthEastAsia
(Source:WorldHealthOrganisation,7February2010).
AustralianandUSofficialsmet(10Jan2010)todiscusstheenhancedbordersecurityproceduresput
inplacefollowingtheNorthwestFlight253incident.TheAustralianGovernmentstresseditwould
workcloselywithUSauthoritiesandairlinestoimplementthemeasuressofarannouncedbythe
ObamaAdministration(Source:CentreforPacificAviation11Jan2010).
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4. SECTOROUTLOOKS4.1 BusinessEventsMarketOutlookTherewere145,400inboundvisitorstoAustraliawithaprimarypurposeofattendingaConferenceor
Conventionin2009(down23%on2008).Similarly,overallbusinessarrivalsdecreased14%yearon
yearto726,000(source:AustralianBureauofStatistics,OverseasArrivalsandDepartures).Inaddition,
therewere120,000inboundarrivalsvisitingAustraliaaspartofanincentivetriporganisedbytheir
employeryearendingSeptember2009(Source:TourismResearchAustralia,InternationalVisitor
Survey).
Therewerealso715,000domesticovernightvisitorswhoseprimarypurposefortravelwastoattenda
conference/convention/exhibitionintheyearendingSeptember2009.Inaddition,therewere591,000
domesticovernightvisitorstravellingonanincentivetriporganisedbytheiremployerinthetwelve
monthsending
September
2009
(source:
Tourism
Research
Australia,
National
Visitor
Survey).
Thebusinesseventssectorisshowingsignsofimprovementwithoperatorsreportingmoreactivity
especiallyinthecorporatemeetingsandincentivemarket,theareaimpactedmostbytheGFC.
Clientshavereportedmoreleadsfrominternationalmarketshoweverwithagenerallyshorterlead
timeandwithsmallermeetings.Thegeneralviewisthatthemarkethasbottomedoutandispointing
upwards.However,thereisstillconsiderablecautionbeingexpressedbytheindustrythattheremay
stillbetoughtimesahead.Whileincentivebusinessisbeingwritten,thereisstillastrongdesireby
clientstokeepalowprofileandnotattractattentiontotheirmeetingsandincentiveevents.Newsof
thefragilityoftheGreekeconomyinrecentweeksshowsthatEuropeisstillvulnerable.
Intheassociationsector,someverysubstantialpiecesofbusinessarecurrentlybeingpitchedforby
ProfessionalConferenceOrganisers(PCOs)andConventionandVisitorBureaux(CVBs).Theassociation
marketwillcontinuetobecrucialtoAustraliasbusinesseventseconomy.
4.2 IndustryPerspectivesFeedbackfromtheaccommodation,attractionsandinboundtouroperatorsectorswassoughtto
gaugetheirperspectiveonrecenteconomicandexternalfactorsontheirbusiness.Overallsentiment
indicatesthattherearesignsofrecoveryfromtheturbulenceof2009.Thereisstillconcernand
uncertaintyaroundairlinecapacity,shortbookingleadtimes,consumerpricesensitivityandyield,all
ofwhichmakeforecastingarecoverydifficult.However,enquiriesandforwardbookingshaveshown
improvementsacrossmanymarkets.
FeedbackfromAustralianaccommodationprovidersindicatesoptimismfor2010afterthe
accommodationsectoryieldwashithardin2009.
Theeconomicsituationthatwefacedin2009(GFC)isnolongeranissueformanycompanies,we
noticethatalotofInternationalcompaniesaretravellingandrequireaccommodationaswellas
meetingspace
Indicatorsofrecoveryandoptimismfor2010originatefromfeedbackthatbothenquiriesand
bookingshaveincreasedoverthepast3months,andareviewoftrendsforthenext3months.
Providershavegenerallynotedtherearenochangesincancellations.Convention,Incentiveand
eventsbuyershavestartedtoenquireandplanaheadforbookingsin2010.
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Internationalgroupoperatorsarenowstartingtoshowinterestinnewproductdevelopment,
whichwillbegoodforAustraliain2011.Mostgroupoperatorshavenotupdatedprogramsin
thelastcoupleofyears,astheyhavestuckwithcoreitinerariesthatwork
MostInboundTourOperators(ITOs)arequietlyconfidentthatthehardshipsfacedin2009canturn
aroundin
2010.
Again,
the
high
Australian
exchange
rate
and
airline
seat
capacity
has
affected
inboundarrivalsespeciallywhencompetingformarketshareagainstshorthaulmarkets(particularly
forAsiancustomers).
ThetrendfromGrouptoFITbookingsinmaturemarketsischangingatanincreasingpace
suchasinSingaporeandMalaysia.Inparticular,AirAsiaXhasfuelledthischangeinMalaysia
ConsumersstatethatAustraliantoursarerelativelymoreexpensivethanotherdestinationswhilethe
trendofshortbookingleadtimescontinues.
Therearemixedresultsforenquiriesandbookingsacrossallmajormarkets.Enquiriesandbookings
fromJapan
were
down
for
Nov
Jan
with
some
improvement
reported
for
Feb
Apr
while
France
has
experienced515%improvementacrossbothcategories.Themajorityofoperatorsarereportingno
significantchangesincancellationsandwherethishasoccurred,isduetobettereconomicstability
globally,consumersfindingcheaperpricesforproductsontheweboragentsover estimating
demand.CustomersareprogressivelymoreknowledgeableaboutAustralianproductand
consequentlytheycontinuetobepricesensitiveandrepeatedlyseekvalueformoney.
Itlookslikethemarketisbouncingbackafteratoughyearin2009.Welookforwardtoa
promising2010
OperatorsforAustralianattractionsindicatedmixedsentimentsacrossdifferentmarketsforthelast3
monthsof
enquiries,
bookings
and
cancellations.
Japan,
USA,
UK
and
Ireland
in
particular
have
shown
declineswhileChina,Korea,TaiwanandFrancehaveshowngoodgrowthacrossenquiriesand
bookings.OperatorsarenoticingincreasedbookingsinFITformanymarketshowevertheshortened
leadtimesaremakingforecastingdifficult.CompetitionhasgrownamongITOs,astheytrytomaintain
andincreasetheirmarketshare.
4.3 DomesticTourismOutlookDomestictourismcontinuedtoweakenintheSeptemberquarter2009.Asalowershareofdomestic
travelisbookedinadvance,forecastsfordomestictourismaremoredifficultthanforinbound
markets.Also,
leading
indicators
for
domestic
tourism
are
not
available
compared
to
inbound
tourism.
Overthepast18months,Australianeconomicactivityhasproventobemoreresilientthanother
worldeconomies.TheReserveBankofAustraliahasputinterestratesonholdsincethelastraterise
of0.25percentagepointsinDecember2009.
InAustralia,economicconditionshavebeenstrongerthanexpected,afteramilddownturna
yearago.Theeffectsofthefiscalstimulusonconsumerdemandhavenowfaded,but
householdfinancesarebeingsupportedbystronglabourmarketoutcomesandarecoveryin
networth.InterestratestomostborrowersnonethelessremainlowerthanaverageStatementbyGlennStevens,Governor:MonetaryPolicyDecision,2February2010.
DataontheAustralianlabourmarketindicatesthenumberofemployedpersonsinAustraliahasrisen
by1.7%fromJanuary2009toJanuary2010.Theunemploymentrateiscurrently5.3%.
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16
YrendSept03 YrendSept06 YrendSept09
DomesticOvernight
TripPropensity 4.7tripsperyear 4.4tripsperyear 3.9tripsperyear
VisitorNightPropensity 18.8nightsperyear 16.9nightsperyear 14.9nightsperyear
Averagetrip
length
4.0
nights
3.9
nights
3.9
nights
AverageSpendpernight $134 $146 $164
AverageSpendpertrip $537 $564 $635
DomesticDaytrips
Trippropensity 9.0peryear 8.1peryear 8.3peryear
Averagespendpertrip $85 $96 $101
BITREdomesticaviationstatisticsfortheyearendingNovember2009indicatethatpassengerscarried
wereup0.2%overall,withthetoptenroutesup0.5%(however,otherroutesdeclined1.7%).The
currentannual
load
factor
is
79.7%
for
domestic
and
regional
passenger
traffic.
The
NVS
indicates
that
overnighttripsinvolvingairtransportweredown7.3%intheyearendingSeptember2009.
Petrolpriceshavestabilisedoverthepastyear,followingconsiderablefluctuationsin2008.The
averagepetrolpriceacrossthecountryhasdecreasedbyaroundthreecentsperlitreintheDecember
quarteragainsttheSeptemberquarter.Comparedto12monthsagothepricehasdecreasedby4%or
aroundfivecentsperlitre(AustralianAutomobileAssociation).
ABSdataonoutboundtourisminthemonthofDecember2009continuedtoshowstrongdemand
withanincreaseof14%comparedwiththesameperiodin2008.OutboundtravelintheDecember
quartergrew17%onthebackof20%increasesinOctoberandNovember.Atthecalendaryear2009,
therehas
been
an
increase
of
8%
in
short
term
resident
outbound
travel.
Outbound
destinations
both
short(NewZealand+12%,Fiji+3%,SEAsia+14%)andlonghaul(USA+15%,UK+5%,NorthWest
Europe+3%)havebeenthebeneficiariesofthisoutboundmovement.Acontributingfactoristhe
appreciationoftheAustraliandollar,whichmakesoverseastravelmoreattractive,
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175. INDIVIDUALMARKETOUTLOOKSInthecalendaryear2009,inboundarrivalswereflatcomparedto2008. However,themonthof
December2009recordedaslightincrease(+6%)comparedtoDecember2008.Forthepurposesof
thisreportTAsoughtfeedbackfromoperatorsonthelevelofbookingsfortravelintheNovember,
December2009andJanuary2010andforwardbookingsfortheFebruaryApril2010period.Itis
recognisedthat
comparing
current
bookings
with
bookings
held
at
the
same
date
last
year
it
is
difficult
giventheshorterbookingtimeframes.Commentsthereforeonlyprovidearoughindicationofthe
shorttermoutlookandshouldbeusedwithcaution.
5.1 UnitedStatesTouristarrivalsfromtheUSAgrewby9%inNovember2009and19%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatesthatUSAarrivalsforthemonthof
January2010willbeupbyaround5%.
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinUSarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
FeedbackfrommostsellersofAustraliaintheUSAindicatesthatenquiriesfortraveltoAustraliahave
pickedup.
ThetraditionalholidayseasonoflateNov/Decshowedaslowingofenquiriesandthenalarge
upsurgeinJan2010.Newenquiriesseemcommittedtotravelling,takinglesstimetopartwith
$sandarestillbookingaslateas13monthsbeforedeparture
Sellersnotedthereweremarkedimprovementswithfewercancellationsforthelastthreemonths
comparedtolastyear.Thetravelmarketcontinuestoimprovefromthedownturnin2008andearly
2009.Anoverallstabilisationinbusinesscorrelatestoimprovingconsumerconfidenceandimproving
employmentconditionsexceptinmanufacturing.
Sellershaveadvisedthatbookingsthroughoutthelastthreemonthswerestrongwithsomesellers
citinggrowthof20%.Thevalueofthesebookings(TTV TotalTransactionValue)hasalsoincreased
againstthesametimelastyear.
Thewholesalemarkethasreturnedtogrowthasboomersandretireesfeelmoreconfidentto
purchasetravelwhereastheretailmarketisstillfragileasconsumerslookforthesamedealstheysaw
thistimelastyear.Theleadtimeforbookingshasremainedanaveragethreeandahalfmonths.
Theunknownfactorinforwardbusinessisairfaresandwheretheywillgointhenextthreetofourmonths.Consumers,stimulatedbycompetitivefaresin2009stillhuntforthebestdeal,butfromall
indications,airfareswillnotfalltotherecordlowlevelsof2009.
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18TheUSAmarketiscurrentlyinastandoffbetweenconsumerswhoarelookingforlastyearsdeals,
andatravelindustrythatdesperatelyneedtoraiseratestoprotectprofitability.Theusualtravel
marketingeffortshavenoeffectinthisenvironment,unlesstheconsumercanseeaveryclearvalue
propositiononoffer
5.2 UnitedKingdomTouristarrivalsfromtheUKgrewby5%inNovember2009andfell1%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatesthatJanuaryUKarrivalswillhave
beenonparwithlastyear.
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec0 9 J an10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthe
previousyear
ChangeinUKarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
Allbutonesellerhasnotedadeclineinthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelastthreemonths
(NovJan).Whiletherearealargenumberofquotesbeingwritten,thereisalongperiodoftime
betweenquoteandconversion.Theresponsetomarketingcampaignshasresultedinenquiriesfor
packagesratherthanflightonly.
Thereissomevariabilityregardingconsumerbookings,withhalfofsurveyrespondentsadvisingofan
improvementinoverallbookinglevelsforthelastthreemonths,andhalfnotingadecline.The
majorityofsellersanticipateanincreaseinbookingsforthenextthreemonths(FebApr),howeverthe
rangeoftheseincreasesrangewidelybetweenlessthan5%toover25%.
TheonlydisproportionategrowthforAustraliahasbeenintheextendedstay/youthcategory
undoubtedlydrivenbyincreasednumberofstudentswithoutuniversityplacesand
professionalstakingcareerbreaksafterredundancies.
Allsellersreportedadecreaseinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesameperiodofthepreviousyear
(NovJan),towhichtheymainlyattributedreducedconsumerconcernabouttheeconomicsituationas
wellasincreasedconsumerconfidenceregardingjobsecurity.
Thereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidenceregarding2010;UKconsumersare,however,more
priceconsciousparticularlyregardingtheAUDexchangeratewhichhasresultedinanincreaseinthe
salesofpackageddeals.Thetrendforshorterleadtimescontinues.Inordertoreducecostssome
airlineshavecutcapacityonAustralianflights.
Leadtimeappearsalittleshorterwithcustomersdelayingfinalpurchasedecisionsbutthis
hasstarted
to
improve
again
as
confidence
in
the
economic
outlook
returns
ThereisalsoageneralelectionrequiredintheUKbyJune2010whichwillleaveconsumerscautious
aroundspending.
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195.3 NewZealandTouristarrivalsfromNewZealandincreasedby1%inNovember2009andfell1%inDecember2009
comparedtothesamemonthsin2008.TAestimatesthatNewZealandarrivalswillbeonparwithlast
yearforthemonthofJanuary2010.
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan09 Feb09 Mar09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 Jul09 Aug09 Sep09 Oct09 Nov09 Dec0 9 Ja n10(e)
%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinNZarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
ArrivalsfromNewZealandinthecalendaryear2009wereflatagainst2008butperformedaboveTFC
forecastsendingtheyearwith1.11millionfromNZ.Whilstleisurearrivalsarestable,thedeclineinthe
businesssectorisbringingoverallvisitornumbersdownandthisisunlikelytoreturnintheshortterm.
TheNewZealandeconomyandconsumerconfidenceisbeginningtostabilisefollowingthetechnical
endtotherecession,whichwillhelpimproveconsumersentimenttospendontravel.Overall,NZ
internationaldeparturesdeclinedby3%in2009.AsimilartrendwasfoundinthePacificregion,where
departuresweredown3.5%overthesameperiod.
Aggressively
priced
trans
Tasman
airfares
from
both
low
cost
and
legacy
carriers
are
stimulating
the
marketandcontinuetopositionAustraliawell.Twotrendsseenearlyin2009continue.Firstly,
consumersarewaitingforthebestdeals,creatingshorterleadtimesandmakingforecastingdifficult
forindustry.Secondly,thesecheapfaresaredrivingcomponentbuying,withconsumersbuyingair
nowandlandlater,makingdistributionchallengingtocaptureandproductdifficulttoforecast.
IndustryreportsthatenquirylevelsforAustraliaareuponsametimelastyear.Heavypromotion
duringthistraditionaltimefortheUK/Europeappearstohavedeclinedinenquiries/sales.However,
industrysourcespredictareboundinlonghaultravelasconsumerswhoputofftravellastyearare
nowlookingtotravelin2010.KeydriversforAustraliaincludeproximity,priceandincreasedinterest
aroundspecialevents especiallytheatre/sport.
TraveltoAustraliacontinuestohaveveryshortleadtimesasconsumersareattractedbyaggressive
advertisingandcompetitivepricedeals.
BookingleadtimesforAustraliacontinuetoshortenassavvyconsumerswaitforthe
'best'orlastminutedeals particularlyinshorthaultravel
5.4 GermanyTouristarrivalsfromGermanyincreasedbyaround10%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009
comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatessimilargrowthin
Germanarrivals
for
the
month
of
January
2010.
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20
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan0 9 F eb0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un0 9 J ul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec0 9 J an10(e)
%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinGermanarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
Allbutonerespondentnotedanimprovementinthenumberofenquiriesandbookingsreceivedin
thelastthreemonths(NovJan).Thereissomevariabilityregardingconsumerbookingpatterns,with
somerespondentsnotingthatconsumersarestillbookingatthelastminute,whileothersnotethat
bookingleadtimesareincreasing(thisisapositiveconsumerindicatorinthismarket).Acommon
threadthroughoutthefeedbackisthatindividual,FITbookingsareperformingbetterthangroup
bookings.Allrespondents,butone,notednochangeinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesame
periodofthepreviousyear(NovJan).
Halfofrespondentsanticipateamarginalincreaseof5%onbookingsforFebruarytoAprilwithsome
notingthatperformanceisalreadyupon2009levels.Thereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidence
regarding2010.Germanconsumersarenowmorepriceconscious,withothercheaperlonghaul
destinationsrepresentingathreattoAustralia.SomeairfaredealscurrentlyinthemarketforAustralia
couldhelpaddressthepricecompetitionanddriveconversion.TheeconomicsituationinGermanyis
stillholdingpeoplebackfromtravellingtoAustralia,butbookingsarestillbeingmade(withshorter
leadtimes).
5.5 FranceTouristarrivalsfromFranceincreasedbyaround20%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009
comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesslightlylowergrowth(+10%)in
FrencharrivalsforthemonthofJanuary2010.
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan09 Fe b09 M ar09 A pr09 May09 J un09 Jul09 Aug09 Se p09 O ct09 N ov09 De c0 9 J an10 (e)
%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinFrencharrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
Allrespondentsnotedanimprovement,albeitsmall,inthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelast
threemonths(NovJan),andallrespondentsreportedanincreaseinbookingscomparedtothesame
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21threemonthsofthepreviousyear.Acoupleofrespondentsnotedthatthetrendforlastminute
bookingswasstillpresent,probablyduetotheFrenchconsumerstillbeingcautiousgiventheGFC.
Respondentsnotednochangeinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesameperiod.Thereissome
variabilityregardingconsumersbudgetswithsomerespondentsreportingthatconsumersare
challengingprices(doingpricechecks,onlineandwithotheroperators),whileothersreportincreased
personalholidaybudgets.
Themajorityofrespondentsanticipateanincreaseofupto10%inbookingsforFebruarytoAprilwith
somenotingthatperformanceisalreadyahead,andthereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidence
regarding2010.Potentialroomforimprovementsexistsasthereisstilladelaybetweenenquiriesand
bookingconversion.
5.6 CanadaTouristarrivalsfromCanadafellby9%inNovember2009butgrew9%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatCanadianarrivalswillbeonparwithlastyear
forthe
month
of
January
2010.
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeove
rthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinCanadianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
SellersinCanadanotedthatenquirieswereimprovingasagentsfocusedontraining,newbrochures
andonlinecapabilitiesincreasingcoverageofAustralianproduct.Therehasbeennochangein
cancellationsforthelastthreemonthsonthesameperiodlastyear.
Theuseofwebinarshasproventobeverysuccessful.Wehavehadrecordnumbersoverthepastfew
months,where
they
are
conducted
for
the
agent
and
also
clients.
The
purpose
is
to
create
awareness
of
travellingtoAustraliaandweareseeingthelevelsofenquiriesturningintobookings
Sellershavenotedmixedresultswithhalfadvisinganimprovementaround10%intheoveralllevelof
bookingsforthelastthreemonthsandtheremainingsellersnotingsmalldeclines(15%).Lookingto
forwardbookings,mostsellershaveindicatedsteadyincreases.Theratesandmarginsaredownon
previousyearshoweverbookingsareshowingmorepassengersandthusrealistictargetshavebeen
set.TheFITmarketisholdingsteadywhilegroupenquiriesandbookingshaveincreased.Some
interesthasalsobeenseenintheweddingsandhoneymoongroup.TheBoomersegmentisdownon
highsexperiencedin2008.
Canadadoes
not
seem
to
have
been
affected
as
badly
as
the
US
with
the
economic
downturn
of
last
year.Thevalueofourbookingsremainconstantandbookingsaregenerallyfortravelatleastthreeto
sixmonthsinadvance
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22ThereisstillplentyofbusinesstoAustraliaoutthere.Howeveryouneedtobecreativetofind
andsecurenewclients
5.7 IrelandTourist
arrivals
from
Ireland
fell
by
around
15%
in
both
November
and
December
2009
compared
to
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatIrisharrivalswillbeonparorslightlydown
forthemonthofJanuary2010.
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinIrisharrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
Allsellershavenotedanimprovementinthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelastthreemonths
(NovJan),althoughthereportedimprovementlevellargelyvariesbetweenrespondents(fromless
than5%toover25%).AllsellersalsoreportedanincreaseinbookingsforNovJancomparedtothe
samethreemonthsofthepreviousyear,butagainwithvaryinglevelsofreportedincreases. Review
ofresponsesonbookingsforthenextthreemonths(FebApr)revealedthatsellersareallexpectingincreases.AnincreaseinbookingswasreportedbythosegoingonaWorkingHolidayandalsothose
recentlymaderedundant,withrequestsforonewaytickets(oropenreturn).
Nearlyallsellersnotedthatthetrendforlastminutebookingswasstillpresent,withIrishconsumers
lookingfordealsparticularlyonairfares.
Allsellersnotednochangeinthelevelofcancellationscomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.
5.8 JapanTouristarrivalsfromJapanfellby23%inNovember2009andfellby6%inDecember2009compared
tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatJapanesearrivalswillbeonparorslightly
downforthemonthofJanuary2010.
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23
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinJapanesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
MostmajortravelagenciesindicatedthatpackagebusinesstoAustraliaespeciallyHoneymoon
productswasmaintainedoverthelastthreemonths.However,theoverallpackagetrendcontinuedto
beverypricedrivenandANKINTANoriented(cheap,close,shortstay)duetoongoingeconomic
issues.TheoutlookforFebMayisbetterhoweverJuneonwardsisstillsoft.
Groupdepartmentsofkeytravelagenciesreportedtravelbysomeschoolgrouptripswhichwere
postponedduetotheoutbreakofH1N1inJapanduringtheschoolpeakseasonlastyear.
ThereisadefinitetrendtowardsFITstyleoftravel,andpurposedriventravelguidedbyspecial
interestsofconsumers.Therehasalsobeenareportedincreaseindirecttoproductbookings.
MostmajortravelagenciesreportedthatupuntilMarch2010airlineseatshavebeendifficultto
secureduetohighskiseasondemandbyAustralianstravellingtoJapan.ItisexpectedthatJapanese
outboundbusinesstoAustraliawillbeimpactedbyhighinbounddemandforthenextcoupleof
months.Thereintroductionoftheairlinefuelsurchargemayaffectfuturevisitationevenmoreasconsumerscontinuetoshifttocheaper,shortdistancesandshortstaydestinations.
5.9 ChinaTouristarrivalsfromChinagrewby8%inNovember2009butfell2%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatChinesearrivalswillfallbyaround25%for
themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearandcombined
Jan/Febthemarketshouldseegrowth.
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinChinesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
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24TheChinesesellersofAustraliahavehadmixedresultsonenquiriesforthelastthreemonths.Sellers
haveadvisedofpositiveenquiriesforChineseNewYearwhilethereisahigherdemandforFIT.The
decreaseinenquiriescanbemarkeddowntotravellersfocusingonnewanduniqueproducts.
Themajorityofsellershavenotednochangesincancellationsoverthelastthreemonthswhileasmall
fewhavenotedhighincreasesincancellations.
Cancellationsduetolessoptimisticeconomicsituationwhilesomeconsumerstendto save
moneyandselectshorthaultoursinAsia
Thepriceistoohighthisyearwhichisbeyondsomeconsumers'expectations
Thereissomeconsistencyregardingconsumerbookingsasmanysellershaveadvisedofdeclinesof
morethan10%overthepastthreemonthscomparedtothepreviousyear.BookingsforChineseNew
Yearcomparedto2009havebeenaffectedbythestrongerAUDandthecurrenteconomicconditions.
Sellersareoptimisticthatbookingswillincreaseandthemajorityoftheseats(includingcharterand
supplementaryservices)willbefilled.
Increasinglyconsumers
have
more
product
knowledge
of
Australia
and
while
the
economic
situation
continuestoimproveandconsumerdesireforoverseastravelwillincrease,strongcompetitionand
heavypromotionswhichfocusondiscountpriceswillinfluenceconsumersdecisionsonholiday
destinations.
Morecompetition,evenforsamepricerangeproducts,fromUSA,CanadaorDubai
Australiaproductsdonothavecompetitiveedgeinprice,especiallyduringpeakseason
Forwardbookingsforthenextthreemonthsaremorepositivewithmoresellersadvisingofincreases
inthemarket.
5.10 HongKongTouristarrivalsfromHongKonggrewby6%inNovember2009and3%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatHongKongarrivalswillfallbyaround30%for
themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearhoweverJan
/Febcombinedshouldbeatleastonparwithlastyear.
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyea
r
ChangeinHongKongarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
TheHong
Kong
sellers
of
Australia
are
reporting
mixed
enquiry
and
booking
levels
for
the
last
three
months.TheChineseNewYearperiodin2010isnotpredictedtobeasfruitfulasJanuarylastyear.
Bookingleadtimeisshortwithlatebookingsincreasing.Thisisparticularlytrueforgrouptravellers
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26TouristarrivalsfromSingaporegrewby11%inNovember2009and7%inDecember2009compared
tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatSingaporeanarrivalswillfallbyaround
15%forthemonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyear
howevercombinedJan/Febshouldseegrowth.
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinSingaporeanarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
SingaporeansellersofAustraliahavereportedpositiveresultsandanoverallimprovementinenquiries
forthelastquarter2009.Therewerefewercancellationsoverthesameperiod.WhiletheH1N1crisis
midyeardiscouragedtravellersmostsellersquotedbetween5and20%fewercancellationsoverthe
lastthreemonths.TravellersarestillpreparedtopayforaholidayinAustralia,eventhoughcurrency
fluctuationsandhightaxesareaturnoff.Nonetheless,somecancellationshaveoccurreddueto
airlineseatconstraints.
SingaporeansellersofAustraliaadvisestronggrowthinenquiriesforthelastthreemonthsas
economicconditions
improve.
Bookings
over
the
last
three
months
were
flat
as
some
sellers
reported
goodgrowthwhileothersrecordedslightdeclines.Thereareslightimprovementsinleadtime
bookingsforpeaktimetravelhowevertrendstowaitforlatelowpricesremain.
Despitethechallenges,Australiawasstillverypopularforyearendvacationswithlengthofstay
increasingfromsixtoninedaysespeciallyforfamiliesandselfdrive.Thistrendresultedinhigher
spendsandbetteryields.Therewasahigherdemandforlandpackagesasmanyconsumershad
ticketspurchasedthroughearlierpromotionsortravelfairs.Therewerealsoconsumerswhobooked
atthelastminute.
Consumersareincreasinglybetterinformed,oftenmeetingwiththeirtravelagentarmedwith
informationor
brochures
collected
at
past
travel
fairs.
There
are
also
indications
of
growing
trends
for
venturingintoregionalAustraliaandtryingoutmoreadventurousactivitiessuchaswatersportse.g.
surfingandkayaking.
TheagentsrequestedthatAustraliacontinuetoruncampaignswhichattractpotentialconsumers;
theyalsoappreciatethesupportofAustraliansuppliersatvariousNATAS/consumershowsas
ultimatelyspeakingtoanAussieispreferred.Also,therearesuggestionsforAustraliato
differentiateitsproductsmorefromotherWesterndestinationsandhaveexperiencesthatare
sustainableandcancreateacontinuousinterestinthedestination.
5.13 MalaysiaTouristarrivalsfromMalaysiagrewby3%inNovember2009and15%inDecember2009comparedto
thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatMalaysianarrivalswillfallbyaround15%for
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27themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearhowever
combinedJan/Febshouldseesomegrowthoverlastyear.
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinMalaysianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
Generalenquiresweremuchthesameas2008howevergrouppackageenquiresincreasedforthe
yearendandChineseNewYear.AgentsalsoreportedanincreasingtrendinFITprograms.
Cancellationswereunchangedforthesameperiodbutinoneinstanceconsumersfoundbetterdeals
ontheinternetandcancelledtheirbookingwiththeagent.
Bookingsweredown,insomecasessignificantly,forthethreemonthstoDecember.However,thisis
contrarytoactualarrivalswhichremainstrong.Trendsarehardtodetermineforthenextthree
monthsbutagentsbelievetheconsumeriswaitingforthemidMarchMATTAfairwhengooddealsare
usuallyannounced.
Bookingleadtimesremainshorthoweverairlinesareimposingconditionsthatgrouptoursmustbefinalisedonemonthprior.Australiashighexchangeratewasalsoraisedinthefeedbackandsomefelt
itmayimpactonbookingsinthefuture.Consumersstillcontinuetoseekgoodvaluepackages.
Familiescontinuetobethefocusfortravelbutlowcostcarriersofferingcheapfaresareattracting
youngertravellers.Boththesegroupsareverypricesensitive.
Customersunderstandtheconceptof'whatyoupayiswhatyouget'.Valueisdependenton
customersperception
5.14 IndiaTouristarrivalsfromIndiawereonparinNovember2009butgrew15%inDecember2009compared
tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatIndianarrivalswillfallslightlyinJanuary
2010.
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28
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un0 9 Ju l0 9 Au g0 9 S ep09 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinIndianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e)TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
SomeagentssawasignificantincreaseinenquiriesparticularlyforhoneymoonandVFRtravellersfor
thelastquarter2009.Agentswhonotedadeclinecommentedthatstudentissuesandsafetywerekey
concerns.EnquiresareoriginatingfromtheVFRandhoneymoonsegmentswithleisureandMICEalso
increasing.
Howevertherewasnochangeinthelevelofcancellationsoverthesameperiodlastyear.
Bookingresultsweremixedwithverylittlechangereportedbythemajorityofagentswithonlyafew
agentsreportingstronggrowth(25%).Allcustomersegmentsareseenintheseincreasesbutyouth,
familiesandVFRareparticularlyflourishing.Consumersareseekinggoodvaluepackagesandknow
whattheywantsonewdestinationsneedtobepromoted.Bookingleadtimeremainsunchanged.
Thecontinuedstudentissuesareimpactingconsumersentimentwhilstexchangeratesandhigh
airfaresarealsobelievedtobeaffectingbothenquiriesandbookingsforthedestination.
Peopleare
still
travelling
to
Australia
but
try
and
avoid
Melbourne,
which
has
been
in
the
newsforthestudentissues
Despitethis,alltheagentsnotedthatAustraliaisawonderfuldestinationtopromoteandsell.Client
satisfactionisalwayshigh.
5.15 TaiwanTouristarrivalsfromTaiwanincreasedbyaround5%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009
comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatTaiwanesearrivalswillfallby
around15%
for
the
month
of
January
2010.
This
reflects
the
later
timing
of
Chinese
New
Year
this
year,andthatcombinedJan/Febwillbeslightlydownonlastyearduetothelackofcharters.
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29
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinTaiwanesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata
TherehasbeenaclearsignofrecoveryandreturningofconsumerconfidenceintheNorthAsiaRegion
towardstheendof2009withTaiwanrecordingpositivevisitorarrivalsgrowthincalendaryear2009.
MostTaiwanesesellershavenotedincreasesinenquiriesforthelastthreemonthsespeciallyforthe
SydneyNewYearsEvefireworks.TheforecastoftheChineseNewYearseasonispositiveandstrong
demandinoutboundtravelisexpected.
Themajorityofsellersalsoreportedanincreaseinbookingsoverthelastthreemonthsandmoving
forwardtothenextthreemonths.However,thisiscontrarytoactualarrivalswhichreflectweaker
trends.Sellershavenotedthatconsumerconfidenceisstrongerandhavinganimpactonbookingsbut
thefluctuatingexchangeratehasimpactedconsumerleadtimebookings.
Groupsseekingcheapmonoitineraries
Mostsellersnotedaslightdecreasetonochangeinoverallcancellations.
5.16 OtherMarkets(outsidetheabove15)Onefifthoftotalarrivalsin2009camefrommarketsoutsidethetop15.Arrivalsformarketsoutside
theabove15marketsincreasedby6%inbothNovember2009and14%inDecember2009compared
tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyearalbeitformsmallbases.TAestimatesthatarrivalsfromother
marketswillbeupbyaround5%inJanuary2010.Thestrongestgrowthmarkets(outsidetheTop15)
includeIndonesia,Italy,ThailandandBrazil.
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)
%cha
ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear
ChangeinarrivalstoAustraliaformarketsoutsideAustralia'stop15marketsbycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)
Source:ABS,DIACandTA
(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata