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GLOBEC FINAL SYMPOSIUM
Washington, D. C., 4 OCT 2011
Regional Perspectives in a Global Context Thomas M. (Zack) Powell, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley
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A 1997 review...
and approx. 15 years later...
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I. LARGELY VERY POSITIVE. E.g., commended:
a. “...wise...choice of Georges Bank...”b. ...integration “ ...of ‘two distinct
cultures’ -- biology & physics...”c. “effort to bring new
technology...” d. “...level of
communication...” & fair
planning process...”
“...making a significant contribution...”
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II. CRITICAL (i.e., negative) REMARKS.
a. No “inhouse” chem./primary product. information
b. No theoretical studies...on ecosystem function, evolution under climate change
c. Neglect of intermittency
d. Disregard of level of uncertainty, esp., in models
e. Difficulties arising from two-agency collaboration
BUT...
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We question, however, whether the depth of understanding gained in Georges Bank, or any of the
future GLOBEC ecosystems, will be adequate to “understand ecosystem dynamical processes [sufficiently
well] to be able to predict the response of the ocean ecosystem and the stability of the marine food web to
climate change”
We believe the achievement of such a grand goal in a few years is optimistic in even a single ecosystem such
as Georges Bank.
Goals...‘reasonably attainable’...?
“...urge GLOBEC leadership and sponsors to consider modification of its formal goals...”
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Revisit linkages to basin/
global scale processesLARGE
small
?
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1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing, & collabs).
“Before”Mid ‘80s:
Transport into N. Atl. largely via
Fram Strait
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“After”
ca. ’90:
Transport into N. Atl. via
Labrador Sea enhanced
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Bolus of FW
reaches GOM,
MAB ca. ’91
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1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,
& collabs).II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)
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12
Di Lorenzo et al. 2008
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13
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550 - 599
29.1%EOF1:
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250 - 299
10.8%EOF2:
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16
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1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,
& collabs).
II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)
A. NEP hypoxia (OSU teams)
III. S. Ocean (Dinnimann, Klinck, Smith)
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“INIT”:
Modeled dye
dispersion of CDW
onto shelf
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“INIT” +
18 mos.
Modeled dye
dispersion of CDW
onto shelf“FIN”:
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Revisit linkages to basin/
global scale processesLARGE
small
?
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1. NW Atlantic (C. Greene, A. Pershing,
& collabs).
II. NE Pacific (E. Di Lorenzo et al.)
A. NEP hypoxia (OSU teams)
III. S. Ocean (Dinnimann, Klinck, Smith)
IV. ModelsA. McGllicuddy,
CurchitserV. Future?
A. Models
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NEMURO.FISH
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70 years, JJAMean,DIFF
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END