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Global Technology Trends
Fall 2015
“When a distinguished and elderly scientist says something is possible,
he is almost certainly correct.
When he says something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”
Arthur C. ClarkeTechnology and the Future (1972)
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What is technology?
• Everything that’s already in the world when you’re born is just normal.
• Anything that gets invented between then and before you turn 30 is incredibly exciting and creative and with any luck you can make a career out of it.
• Anything that gets invented after you’re 30 is against the natural order of things and the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it until it’s been around for about 10 years when it gradually turns out to be alright really.
Douglas AdamsAuthor, Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
“How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Internet” (1999)
“Technology is stuff that doesn’t work yet.”
Bran FerrenCo-chairman, Applied Minds
Former EVP of Disney Imagineering
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Do you remember 2008?
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I didn’t get it ALL right …
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And I keep changing these slides …
#SoLoMo Atoms vs. Bits
Global Technology Trends
Fall 2015
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Web 2.0“On the Internet,
nobody knows you’re a dog.”
Social Media Foreshadows Web 3.0
Education is Disrupted
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American Council on Education Recommends 5 MOOCs for Credithttp://chronicle.com/article/American-Council-on-Education/137155/
“A teacher that can be replaced by a machine,
should be.”
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Sugata Mitra’s “Hole in the Wall”
Un-Mass Production
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http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21603237-dutch-company-has-come-up-way-print-lenses-which-one-day-could-be-used
A Dutch company has come up with a way to print lenses, which one day could be used to
make prescription glasses on demand.
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http://3dprintingindustry.com/2015/02/26/12-things-we-can-3d-print-in-medicine-right-now http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/04/3d-printed-skeletons
Bionic EarArtificial Heart Valve
Liver Cells (living tissue)Skeleton
Big Data / The Internet of Everything
“Just as water is wet in a way that individual water molecules aren’t, big data can reveal information in a
way that individual bits of data can’t.”Clay Shirkey
author of Cognitive Surplus
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“Soon, only 1/5 of DoCoMo’s users
will be human beings. The rest will be cars, bicycles,
computers, ships, vending machines and
home appliances.”
Dr. Keiji TachikawaCEO, NTT DoCoMo
(January 2004)
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IPv4 Migration to IPv6
IPv432 bits
(192.168.2.1)
4.3 * 109
(4.3 billion)
IPv6128 bits
(3ffe:1900:4545:3:200:f8ff:fe21:67cf)
3.4 * 1038
(340 undecillion)
Genetics-Nanotechnology-Robotics
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Genetics / Personalized Medicine
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Google Lens is being created to help monitor diabetes through a sensor that sends out
information on glucose levels in the wearer’s tears. The information is transmitted through a radio antenna embedded in the lens that is
thinner than a human hair. http://www.economist.com/news/world-week/21607882-business-week
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/google-developing-health-tracking-wristband-for-health-research
Google’s Health Tracker
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August 2015
“Big data will replace the need for 80% of all doctors.”
Vinod KhoslaCo-founder, Sun Microsystems
VC at Kleiner Perkins(2012)
http://www.wfs.org/blogs/thomas-frey/eight-shocking-quotes-2012-will-redefine-our-future
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Nanotechnology
Robotics / Artificial Intelligence
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Don’t worry about your job being
outsourced to China or India
Your job will be outsourced to a computer …
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“To survive in this age, individuals and
organizations must examine what they’redoing to earn a living and ask themselves:
Can a computer do it faster?”
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May 2015
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21650543-powerful-computers-will-reshape-humanitys-future-how-ensure-promise-outweighs
“By mimicking the layers of neuronsin a human brain and crunching vastamounts of data, (computers) canteach themselves to perform sometasks, from pattern recognition totranslation, almost as well as humanscan.
As a result, things that once calledfor a mind – from interpretingpictures to playing video games – arenow within the scope of computerprograms.”
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21650526-artificial-intelligence-scares-peopleexcessively-so-rise-machines
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Completely Automated Public Turing
test to tell Computers and Humans Apart
The Turing Test
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“A computer would deserve
to be called intelligent if it could deceive a
human into believing that
it was human.”
Alan Turing (1912-54)
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/robots-will-be-smarter-than-us-all-by-2029-warns-ai-expert-ray-kurzweil-9147506.html
“By 2029, computers will be able to understand our language, learn from
experience, and outsmart even the most intelligent humans.”
Ray KurzweilDirector of Engineering
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Today’s brains aren’t much better than today’s computers.
1. Ability to make decisions with incomplete data sets (e.g., fight or flight)
2. Low power consumption (20 watts vs. megawatts)
3. Fault tolerance (losing just one transistor can wreck a microprocessor, but brains lose neurons all the time)
4. No programming necessary (brains learn and change spontaneously as they interact with the world instead of following the fixed paths of a predetermined algorithms)
www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21582495-computers-will-help-people-understand-brains-better-and-understanding-brains
Today’s brains aren’t much better than today’s computers.
Which one do you think is roughly doubling in capability
every 18 months?
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Will Your Children Live Forever?
“We have the ability to solve almost all of man’s grand challenges
within the next 30 years.”
Peter DiamandisFounder, X-Prize Foundation
(2012)
http://www.wfs.org/blogs/thomas-frey/eight-shocking-quotes-2012-will-redefine-our-future
Reasons to be Hopeful about the Future
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“The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones.”
Thomas Friedman quoting former Saudi Oil Minister Yamani
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/engineering/news/10-things-that-will-disappear-in-the-next-110-years#slide-1
Some Things That Don’t Have a Future
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Two Things That Do Have a Future
“One only needs two tools in life: WD-40 to make things go and duck tape to make them stop.”
GM Weilacher
Before We Forget the Past …
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ETHERNET Bob Metcalfe 1973(CSMA)
INTERNET Vinton Cerf 1962 / 1974Bob Kahn (TCP/IP)
WWW Tim Berners-Lee 1989 / 1991(FTP / HTTP)
a. Amara’s Law
b. Metcalfe’s Law
c. Moore’s Law
d. Stanforth’s Law
Some More History You Should Know
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“We invariably overestimate the short-term impact of new technologies, while
underestimating their long-term effects.”
Roy Amara (1925-2007)Co-founder, Institute of the Future
www.iftf.org
a. Amara’s Law
b. Metcalfe’s Law
The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2).
It is related to the fact that the number of unique connections in a network of a number of nodes (n) can be expressed mathematically as the triangular number n(n − 1)/2.
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c. Moore’s Law
A long-term trend in the history of computing hardware in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years.
d. Stanforth Rule
There are only two kinds of problems that exist in the world:
Those that violate the laws of physics andthose that time and money can solve.
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“The Mayans lost to the Aztecs, the Romans lost to the Barbarians, and the French lost to the Vietnamese.
In each case the losers had superior technology, but the victors had more troops.”