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June 20, 2012
Global Pork Market Update
Brett Stuart
National Pork Board
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Outline
• Global Trends / Macro Factors
• China Pigs and Corn…
• U.S. Pork Exports and Key Markets
• Outlook
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We are living in extraordinary times!
What does this tell us about agriculture the past 100 years?
What about the next 100 years?
Source: US Department of Commerce, plus other published estimates
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Source: USDA, Macroeconomic Dataset,
Dept of Census, World Bank
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: USDA, Macroeconomic Dataset
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Source: USDA, Global AgriTrends
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: UN/FAO
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Source: USDA/FAS, UN/FAO
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: USDA/FAS (Key Exporting Countries)
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CHINA PIGS AND CORN…
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Source: ERS International Macroeconomic Data Set
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Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
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CHINA PORK PRICES
With per-capita income doubling
every 7 years (over the past 18 years),
consumers can effectively pay twice
as much for pork every 7 years
without affecting their income…
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Source: Weekly average of Chinese regional markets, USDA
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: China and H. Kong Customs
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: USDA/ERS, Chinese Yearbook of Animal Husbandry
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Source: USDA/FAS
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An Inconsistent Triad
China’s Food
Self-
Sufficiency
China’s Food
Inflation (above
world prices)
Unfettered
Access for Ag
Imports
Pick any two, but only two…
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U.S. TRADE & FORECASTS
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Source: Various Countries’ Customs Data, GTIS
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Source: USDA/ERS
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Source: USDA/ERS
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: USDA/FAS
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Source: USDA/ERS, GAT Forecasts
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EU Sow-Stall Ban Three Scenarios:
• Most Likely: Prod falls 5-10%, 10%+ price increase, further integration
• Rigorous Enforcement: Prod falls 10%, real shortages, strong price increases, pork price inflation becomes political (no real solution)
• Fundamental Realignment: Regional shift, more breeders in NW EU selling piglets to feeders in S, E, EU
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Source: Reporting Countries’ Customs Data, GTIS
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2012 Watchlist • Chinese pork diseases, inflation, prices
• EU Sow-Stall Ban – (5-10% EU pork decline?)
• Mexican complaints about U.S. pork imports
• Corn prices will remain volatile on weather/China
• Tight global/U.S. beef supplies, market volatility?
• Japan beef agreement? By yearend?
• Market Access: – TPP: talks by Fall 2012?
– Canada FTA’s: 12+ proposed, Japan?, S. Korea?, China?, EU?
• Policies!
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“There’s going to be a huge shift in American society, American culture, in the places where one is going to get rich. The stock brokers are going to be driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors so they can work for the smart farmers. The farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis.”
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Denver, Colorado
36
Services Offered:
• Global market research
• Specific market reports
• Email alerts
• Monthly newsletter
• Webinars / presentations
Brett Stuart [email protected]
303-803-8716
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Other Pork Reports:
• Japan • China/HK • S. Korea • Australia • Mexico • Russia • Denmark
and Canada (exports)
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Will be 93% compliant:
Germany, Denmark, Poland,
Netherlands, Austria,
Belgium, Finland, Greece,
Slovenia
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Source: Japan Customs
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Source: Korea Meat Trade Association
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Source: KMTA
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China/HK Pork Imports
Source: China/HK Customs
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Source: Korean Customs, GAT forecasts
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Source: USDA/ERS
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