Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
(GECAFS)
Polly EricksenGECAFS IPO, University of Oxford
Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
... is underpinned by Food Systems.
Food Security
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Affordability• Allocation• Preference
• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety
FOOD AVAILABILITY
• Production• Distribution• Exchange
Environmental Security /
Natural Capital• Ecosystems
stocks, flows• Ecosystem
services• Access to
natural capital
Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social & political
capital• Human capital
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology
Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demandDistributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade
Consuming food: preparation, consumption
Food Systems compriseActivities and Outcomes
Ericksen, P. 2008.Global Environmental Change 18
Elements of ACCESS to food
Characteristics of food security
element
Major determinants
Driver of determinants
Affordability Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local.
Costs of local production higher than external. Income determines purchased quantity.
Food System activity: Producing.
Social welfare: income.
Allocation Most food only available in supermarkets.
Supermarket chains dominate in urban areas; local markets have been driven out of business.
Food System activity: Retailing.
Preference Fish and rice are traditional foods.
Cultural preferences; agro-ecosystem characteristics.
Social welfare: Social capital.
Ecosystem services.
Using the Food Systems framework – (hypothetical example)
(Source: adapted from Ingram & Brklacich, 2002; Ericksen, 2008)
Capacity to cope
with, and adapt to,
GEC
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)
Change in type, frequency & magnitude
of environmental threats
FOOD SYSTEMRESILIENCE /
VULNERABILITY
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions, resource accessibility,
economic conditions, etc.
Exposureto GEC
Vulnerability of the Food System to GEC
Vulnerability of the food system to GECis mediated by coping capacity
Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.
Example: Nutritional diversity (milk) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain
Milk production is sensitive to drought (it decreases)
Rural areas:
Urban areas:
Weak coping capacity• weak markets• poor infrastructure• low income• poor storage or processing
HIGH vulnerability• access to milk decreases• nutritional value decreases
Strong coping capacity• robust markets• sufficient infrastructure• higher income• good storage and processing
LOW vulnerability• access to milk maintained• nutritional value maintained
Food security outcome
Adaptation to GEC
• Is aimed at reducing the vulnerability of food systems to stresses
• Requires adaptive capacity of individual actors and…
• An enabling institutional and policy environment
Adaptation to reduce vulnerability of food system outcomes
Food Security determinant
GEC Stress to which determinant will be increasingly exposed
Sensitivity to stress (future)
Adaptation options
Adaptive capacity
Future vulnerability
Nutritional value[Utilisation]e.g. Main protein (pulses)
Affordability[Access]e.g. Household incomes
Production[Availability]e.g. Irrigation potential in Haryana
RESEARCHERS
ACTORS
STATE
PRIVATE SECTOR
NGO/ CIVILSOCIETY
RESOURCEMANAGERS(FARMERS)
ACTIVITIES
PRODUCING
PROCESSING &PACKAGING
DISTRIBUTING &RETAILING
CONSUMING
OUTCOMES
ACCESS-Affordability-Allocation-Preference
AVAILABILITY-Production-Distribution-Exchange
UTILIZATION-Nutritional Value-Social Value-Food Safety
EnvironmentSocial Welfare
Analysing Food Systemsin context of drivers and feedbacks
Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.
Food System ACTIVITIESProducing
Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing
Consuming
Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental
Security, and other Societal Interests
FoodAccess
FoodUtilisation
FoodAvailability
EnvironWelfare
Social Welfare
SocioeconomicDRIVERS
Changes in:Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context, Cultural context
Science & Technology
DRIVERS’Interactions
GEC DRIVERSChanges in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
‘Natural’DRIVERS
e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles
Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs
Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
ImprovedEnvironmental
Benefits
ImprovedSocial
Benefits
ImprovedFood Security
Current food systems
Adapted food systems
Trade-offs
Adaptation involves tradeoffs
• How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?
GECAFS“Fundamental Questions”
Env & Socio-economicConditions
CurrentFood Systems
AdaptedFood Systems
Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks
Adaptation
“It depends…”
where, by when, by how much, how fast, … => Regional research
GECAFS Regional Science Plan & Implementation Strategy
Policy-relevant research at national and regional-levels
Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and feedbacks
Based on improved conceptual understanding and methods
Innovative research partnerships
GECAFS IGP Study Districtscapture trends in socioeconomic &
biophysical conditions across the IGP
Gujarat, PunjabPakistan
• wheat• high ag inputs & effective institutions
• variable water availability• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions
Vaishali, BiharIndia
• rice• low infrastructure & investment
• low income levels• out migration of labour
• little government policy support• seasonal flooding
• variable water availability
Greater FaridpurBangladesh
• rice• low income levels• institutions failing
• drought• seasonal flooding
• sea level & salt water intrusion
Rohini Basin, TeraiNepal
• rice/wheat• out-migration of labour
• seasonal flooding• variable water availability
Ludhiana, PunjabIndia
• rice/wheat• stagnant productivity growth
• high ag inputs & effective institutions• variable water availability
• groundwater depletion• changes in snow/glacier melt
• rising GHG emissions