Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
CONDITIONSUpdated May 2018
Table of Contents1. Indicators of Real Activity
Chart 1. Global GDP Growth
Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production
Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index
Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies
Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index
2. Inflation Indicators
Chart 9. Commodity Prices
Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)
Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)
Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies (Headline CPI)
Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies (Headline CPI)
3. Money and Capital Markets
Chart 14. Money Market Spreads
Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields in Major Advanced
Economies
Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes in Major Emerging Economies
4. Public Finances
Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major
Advanced Economies
Chart 19. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing in Major
Emerging Economies
Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt in Major Advanced
Economies
Chart 21. General Government Gross Debt in Major Emerging
Economies
5. Monetary Policy
Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 23. Central Bank Policy Rates in Major Emerging Economies
Chart 24. Money Supply Growth in Major Advanced Economies
Chart 25. Money Supply Growth in Major Emerging Economies
6. U.S. External Accounts
Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade
Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value
Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance
Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar
Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar
7. Current Analysis
Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances
Chart 32. Bond Spreads for Select Euro Area Economies
Chart 33. Select Economies’ Banking Exposure to Peripheral Euro-
Area Sovereign Debt
Chart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedule for Select Euro-Area
Economies
Indicators of Real Activity
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: National Statistical Offices, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 1. Global GDP Growth
World (2017 Q4 = 4.0)
Advanced Economies (ex. U.S.) (2017 Q4 = 2.5)
Emerging Economies (2017 Q4 = 5.5)
U.S. (2018 Q1 = 2.6)
Percent, Year/Year
NOTE: The advanced economies (ex. U.S.) aggregate includes the Euro Area, Japan, the U.K., Canada, Australia, South Korea,
Switzerland and Sweden. The emerging economies aggregate includes China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, South Africa and Colombia. The world aggregate includes these countries, which make up approximately 80 percent of
world GDP computed using purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP weights.
Sources: OECD; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Index, 2005 = 100
Chart 2. OECD Industrial Production
NOTE: Countries included in the industrial production index are all members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, or OECD (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New
Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and
United States).
Last Observation: Dec = 112.6
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: JPMorgan; Bloomberg
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index
Chart 3. Global Purchasing Managers Index
Manufacturing (Apr = 53.5)
Services (Apr = 53.8)
Composite (Apr = 53.8)
NOTE: This index measures purchasing managers' perspectives of current business conditions. An index value greater than 50
indicates economic expansion from the previous month, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.
Sources: National Statistical Offices, EUROSTAT; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
U.S. (Apr = 3.9)
Euro Area (Mar = 8.5)
Japan (Mar = 2.5)
U.K. (Jan = 4.1)
Canada (Mar = 5.8)
Chart 4. Unemployment in Major Advanced Economies
NOTE: The chart plots harmonized unemployment data for the U.K.
Sources: OECD; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent
Chart 5. Unemployment in OECD Economies
Last Observation: Mar = 5.4
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Chart 6. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
Index, 2000 = 100
NOTE: This series includes data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and covers approximately 97 percent o f
total world trade. Trade volume is calculated as the arithmetic average of world export volumes and world import volumes.
Last Observation: Feb = 185.4
Sources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
Chart 7. Volume of World Merchandise Trade
World (Feb = 183.9)
Advanced Economies (Feb = 149.3)
Emerging Economies (Feb = 277.2)
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
World (Feb = 187.0)
Advanced Economies (Feb = 154.5)
Emerging Economies (Feb = 252.8)
Index, 2000 = 100
NOTE: Import and export series include data from 23 industrialized and 60 emerging market economies and cover approximately 97
percent of total world trade.
Imports Exports
Sources: Baltic Exchange; Bloomberg
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Chart 8. Baltic Dry Index
Index, 01/04/1985 = 1,000
NOTE: The Baltic Dry Index is a maritime shipping index that measures charter rates for shipping dry bulk commodities such as
coal, grain and iron ore.
Last Observation: = 1465
Inflation Indicators
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: Goldman Sachs; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 9. Commodity Prices
Precious Metals (May 09 = 195.1)Agriculture and Livestock (May 09 = 114.5)Energy (May 09 = 113.9)Industrial Metals (May 09 = 88.9)
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
Sources: OECD; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent, Year/Year
Chart 10. Inflation in OECD Economies (CPI)
Headline Inflation (Mar = 2.3)Core Inflation (Mar = 2.0)
NOTE: The headline consumer price index (CPI) is the broadest measure of price changes consumers face in their day-to-day living
expenses. The core CPI excludes energy and food prices.
Sources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent, Year/Year
Chart 11. Global Inflation (Headline CPI)
World (Mar = 3.7)
Advanced Economies (Mar = 1.9)
Emerging Economies (Mar = 4.8)
Sources: National Statistical Offices, European Central Bank; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 12. Inflation in Major Advanced Economies
(Headline CPI)
U.S. (Apr = 2.4)
Euro Area (Apr = 1.3)
Japan (Mar = 1.1)
U.K. (Mar = 2.5)
Canada (Mar = 2.3)
Percent, Year/Year
Sources: National Statistical Offices; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Percent, Year/Year
Chart 13. Inflation in Major Emerging Economies
(Headline CPI)
Brazil (Apr = 1.7)Russia (Apr = 2.5)India (Mar = 4.4)Indonesia (Apr = 3.4)China (Apr = 1.8)South Africa (Mar = 3.7)
Money and Capital Markets
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 14. Money Market Spreads
U.S. Dollar (May 09 = 50.6)
Euro (May 09 = 3.5)
Japanese Yen (May 09 = 2.2)
U.K. Pound Sterling (May 09 = 18.4)
Basis Points
NOTE: The chart plots the spread, or difference, between 3-month interbank offered rates (Libor for the dollar, yen and pound
sterling; Euribor for the euro) and the overnight index swap rate for each currency.
Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, Bank of Canada; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 15. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
in Major Advanced Economies
U.S. (May 09 = 3.0)
Euro Area (May 09 = 0.6)
Japan (May 09 = 0.0)
U.K. (May 09 = 1.5)
Canada (May 09 = 2.4)
Percent
Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 16. Stock Market Indexes
in Major Advanced Economies
U.S. (May 09 = 198)Euro Area (May 10 = 86)Japan (May 10 = 131)U.K. (May 10 = 124)Canada (May 09 = 128)
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index for the U.S, the EURO STOXX 50 Price Index for the Euro
Area, the Nikkei 225 Average Index for Japan, the FTSE 100 Index for the U.K. and the S&P/TSX Composite Index for Canada.
Sources: Financial Times, Wall Street Journal; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 17. Stock Market Indexes
in Major Emerging EconomiesBrazil (May 09 = 201) Russia (May 10 = 66)
India (May 10 = 260) Indonesia (May 09 = 332)
China (May 10 = 111) South Africa (May 10 = 231)
Index, Jan. 2007 = 100
NOTE: Stock market indexes are the Bovespa Index for Brazil, the RTS Index for Russia, the Bombay SENSEX for India, the Jakarta
Composite for Indonesia, the New Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index for China and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Top 40Index for South Africa.
Public Finances
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 18. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
U.S. (2018 = -5.3)
Euro Area (2018 = -0.6)
Japan (2018 = -3.4)
U.K. (2018 = -1.8)
Canada (2018 = -0.8)
Percent of GDP
NOTES: Data for 2018 are estimates; Data for 2017 for Japan and Canada are also estimates.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
Chart 19a. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
NOTES: Data for 2018 are estimates; Data point for 2017 for Indonesia is also an estimate.
Brazil (2018 = -8.3) Russia (2018 = 0.0)
India (2018 = -6.5) Indonesia (2018 = -2.5)
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
Chart 19b. General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
NOTE: Data for 2017 and 2018 are estimates.
South Africa (2018 = -4.2)China (2018 = -4.1)
Japan (2018 = 236.0)
Sources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 20. General Government Gross Debt
U.S. (2018 = 108.0)
Euro Area (2018 = 84.2)
U.K. (2018 = 86.3)
Canada (2018 = 86.6)
NOTES: Data for 2018 are estimates; Data for 2017 for Japan and Canada are also estimates.
Percent of GDP Percent of GDP
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
Chart 21a. General Government Gross Debt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
55
65
75
85
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
NOTES: Data for 2018 are estimates; Data point for 2017 for Indonesia is also an estimate.
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
Brazil (2018 = 87.3) Russia (2018 = 18.7)
India (2018 = 68.9) Indonesia (2018 = 29.6)
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
Chart 21b. General Government Gross Debt
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Percent of GDP
NOTES: Data for 2018 are estimates; Data point for 2017 for South Africa is also an estimate.
China (2018 = 51.2) South Africa (2018 = 54.9)
Monetary Policy
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 22. Central Bank Policy Rates
in Major Advanced Economies
U.S. (May 10 = 1.625)
Euro Area (May 10 = 0.00)
Japan (May 10 = -0.10)
U.K. (May 10 = 0.50)
Canada (May 10 = 1.25)
Percent
NOTES: The chart plots the federal funds rate for the U.S., the main refinancing operation rate for the Euro Area, the base rate for the
U.K., the overnight target rate for Canada and the uncollateralized overnight call rate for Japan applied until April 3, 2013, before the
main operating policy target changed to expanding the monetary base. On February 16, 2016, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopted
negative interest rates applied to excess reserves that financial institutions hold at the BoJ. The Bank also introduced an interest rate
target of around 0 percent for its 10-year government bond yields in September 2016.
Bank of Indonesia Rate (Aug 18 = 6.50)
Repo Rate (May 10 = 6.00)
Bank of Russia Key Rate (May 10 = 7.25)
Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Brazil Russia
India Indonesia
Overnight SELIC Target Rate (May 10 = 6.50)
Reverse Repo Rate (May 10 = 5.75)
7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (May 10 = 4.25)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
Chart 23a. Central Bank Policy Rates
in Major Emerging Economies
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
NOTE: The Reserve Bank of India utilizes the repo rate to inject liquidity into the monetary system and the reverse repo rate to
remove liquidity. On August 19, 2016, the Bank of Indonesia changed its policy rate from the BI rate to the 7-day reverse repo rate.
Average Repo Rate (May 10 = 6.50)
Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
China South Africa
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Percent
Chart 23b. Central Bank Policy Rates
in Major Emerging Economies
1-Year Lending Rate (May 10 = 4.35)
1-Year Deposit Rate (May 10 = 1.50)
Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 24. Money Supply Growth
in Major Advanced Economies
U.S. (Apr = 3.8)
Euro Area (Mar = 3.9)
Japan (Mar = 3.3)
U.K. (Mar = 2.2)
Canada (Mar = 4.6)
Percent, Year/Year
NOTE: The chart plots MZM in the U.S, M2 in the Euro Area, Japan and Canada and M4 in the U.K.
Sources: National Central Banks; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 25. Money Supply Growth
in Major Emerging Economies
Brazil (Mar = 7.0)Russia (Mar = 9.9)India (Mar = 14.2)Indonesia (Mar = 7.5)China (Mar = 8.8)South Africa (Mar = 7.9)
Percent, Year/Year
NOTE: The chart plots M2 for each country.
U.S. External Accounts
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 26. U.S. Terms of Trade
Terms of Trade (Mar = 103.4)
Terms of Trade (Excluding Oil) (Mar = 89.3)
Index, Jan. 1990 = 100
NOTE: U.S. terms of trade are calculated as the import price index/export price index.
Sources: Census Bureau; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 27. U.S. Nominal Trade Balance, Customs Value
Bil. U.S. Dollars
NOTE: The chart plots the nominal trade balance in goods.
Last Observation: Mar = -68.3
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Chart 28. U.S. Current Account Balance
Percent of GDP
NOTE: All values are nominal.
Last Observation: 2017 Q4 = -2.6
Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 29. Nominal Value of the U.S. Dollar
Nominal Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Apr = 102.6)
U.S. Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Apr = 89.7)
U.S. Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Apr = 119.1)
Index, Jan. 2000 = 100
NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United
Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease
represents a depreciation.
Sources: Federal Reserve Board; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 30. Real Value of the U.S. Dollar
Real Exchange Value of the U.S. Dollar (Apr = 95.3)
U.S.Dollar vs. Major Currencies (Apr = 101.3)
U.S.Dollar vs. Other Important Trading Partners (Apr = 92.6)
Index, Jan. 2000 = 100
NOTE: Countries or regions whose currencies are included in the major currencies index are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United
Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Sweden. Countries included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia. An increase in each index represents an appreciation of the U.S. dollar and a decrease
represents a depreciation.
Current Analysis
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Sources: International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Chart 31. Global Current Account Balances
Bil. U.S. Dollars
U.S.
China
Japan
Others
Oil Exporters
Germany
NOTE: Oil exporting countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United A rab
Emirates and Venezuela. The remaining countries not already listed for which there is data comprise "Others". For a sample ofcountries, striped columns denote forecasts.
Sources: Reuters; Haver Analytics
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chart 32. Bond Spreads for
Select Euro Area Economies
Greece (May 10 = 353)
Ireland (May 10 = 42)
Portugal (May 10 = 116)
Spain (May 10 = 75)
Italy (May 10 = 138)
Basis Points
NOTE: The chart shows the spread, or difference, in interest rates between 10-year government bonds for various countries and
German 10-year government bonds.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bank for International Settlements, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
0
5
10
15
20
France U.K. Germany Belgium Ireland Switzerland Spain Austria Italy U.S. Japan Sweden Canada
Chart 33. Select Economies' Banking Exposure
to Peripheral Euro-Area Sovereign Debt
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Percent of GDP
NOTES: The chart plots the claims that banks in each country have, as a share of its 2017 GDP, on sovereign debt in Greece, Ireland,
Portugal, Spain and Italy. All GDP values are based on International Monetary Fund estimates. All values are nominal.
June 2017
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasSources: Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund; Haver Analytics
14
16
13
12 11
10
12
9
76
10
9
7
13
9
5
67
2
4
10
8
3 3
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Percent of GDP
Chart 34. Sovereign Debt Repayment Schedule
for Select Euro-Area Economies
2018 2022202120202019
NOTES: Repayment amounts include both principal and accrued interest. All GDP values are projections from the International
Monetary Fund. All values are nominal.