Download - GFEI at Fuel Economy Detroit
Fuel Economy
State of the World 2016
John German, ICCT
March 17, 2016
Fuel Economy Detroit
Dearborn, MI
Overview
Status of light and heavy-duty vehicle fuel
economy and greenhouse gas emission
standards in the US and globally
Progress towards GFEI target of doubling new
passenger vehicle fuel economy by 2030
In-use emissions data reveals a growing gap
between test cycle and real world emissions.
Global car stock to 2050
UNEP Policy Progress Map
Fuel economy standards around the world
5
Status of LDV (car) fuel economy
standards, normalized to U.S. CAFE
6
US 2025: 56.2
Canada 2025: 56.2
Mexico 2016 : 35.1
EU 2021: 56.9
Japan 2020: 45.9
China 2020: 47.7
S. Korea 2020: 56.7
India 2022: 20.8
Brazil 2017: 40.9
KSA 2020: 40.0
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Kilo
me
ters
pe
r li
ter
(ga
so
lin
e e
qu
iva
len
t)
Mil
es
pe
r g
all
on
(g
as
olin
e e
qu
iva
len
t),
no
rma
lize
d t
o C
AF
E historical performance
enacted targets
proposed targets or targets under study
Source: http://www.theicct.org/global-pv-standards-chart-library
Compliance pathways for US 4-door
sedans
712
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6
Fu
el e
co
no
my
(k
m/l)
Vehicle footprint (m2)
2014 4-cylinder sedans
2010 4-cylinder sedans
Fusion
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Accord
Camry
Mazda 6
Mazda 6
i-eLOOP
Altima
Fuel Economy Standards
Consumer cost and payback
8
Global Fuel Economy Initiative
Progress towards 2030 target
Country by country progress on fuel
economy
Status Region
Projected share
of global LDV
sales in 2030
Reduction in new
LDV CO2 rates
with adopted
standards
2005-2030
China 29% 34%
India 16% 26%
US 13% 52%
EU 12% 39%
Brazil 3% 13%
Japan 2% 27%
Mexico 2% 14%
Canada 1% 49%
South Korea 1% 48%
Saudi Arabia 1% 15%Total 80% 38%
No efficiency
standards Total 20% 4%
100% 27%
Adopted LDV
efficiency
standards
Global sales-weighted average
Source: Fuel Economy State of the World 2016, GFEI
Progress towards doubling new passenger
vehicle fuel economy by 2030
4%
38%
27%
50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
No
rma
lize
d n
ew
ve
hic
le C
O2 r
ate
s
(20
05
ba
se
lin
e =
10
0)
No light-duty efficiency standards
Adopted light-duty efficiency standards
Global sales-weighted average
GFEI target: 50% reduction by 2030
Source: Fuel Economy State of the World 2016, GFEI
Meeting GFEI target will stabilized global CO2
emissions
12Estimated using ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap model (Facanha, et al., 2012). Business as usual
= vehicle efficiency remains at 2005 levels. Adopted = currently adopted policies. GFEI Target = countries adopt
standards that reduce average fuel consumption of new vehicles to 50% below 2005 levels by 2030 (GFEI, 2014).
Compliance Challenges
The importance of mandatory standards
14
Automotive industry self
commitment adoptedCO2 monitoring
system established Formal adoption of
CO2 performance
standards regulation
Review of European
Commission strategy,
decision to introduce
regulatory measures
Rising concern: real world emissions diverging from
standards
15
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road-2014-update
16
Thank you!
John German, International Council on Clean Transportation