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GETTING THE LEAD OUT:How to improve the American Automotive Supply Chain by 1000%
Featuring
DAVE TATMANExecutive Director of the Kentucky Automotive Industry Association
Monday, July 18, 2016 | 1 PM EST
RYAN KELLY
- Consultant to high-tech manufacturing firms- Background in architecture, fabrication and community development
- Associate Vice President for Advanced Manufacturing for WKU- 34 years with General Motors at 13 different locations - 3 countries, 2 continents- Plant Manager for the Corvette Assembly Facility in Bowling Green
Director of Business Operations at MakeTime
DAVE TATMANExecutive Director of the Kentucky Automotive Industry Association
An Industry in Flux
The Pathto Now
Current Challenges
Lean’s Limitations
1000%: Futile or
Inevitable?
The Technology’s
Coming(The Technology’s
Here)
Q&A
WHAT WE’LL COVER
An Industry in Flux
Automotive Supply Chain Innovation Since 1980
HOW HAS THEINDUSTRY CHANGED?
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
Information technology changed the pace
Dramatic improvements in lead time / product
development
Testing / analysis tools
LEANManufacturing Principles
Is a single, common
manufacturing system
Has integrated / interdependent
principles
Focuses on eliminating waste
Builds values Supports the operator
Scales to fit the needs and size of the organization
An Effective Lean Manufacturing System:
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
Bottom Line: Improvements in Cost, Quality and Time to Market
Got organized Paid attention to process
Measured, and continually improved
Work became: better, faster,
safer
Halo effect: pride
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
LEAN DROVE WASTE OUT OF AUTOMAKING
MAINTAINORGANIZECLEARCLEAN
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
The Path to Now
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
DID AUTO
MANUFACTURERS
DREAM OF
ELECTRIC CARS?
The
PAST
Paper-Based Documentation
Manual Data Collection
Improvement was Consistent but Slow
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
IS THE TECHNOLOGY
HERE TO REALIZE THE
FULL POTENTIAL
OF LEAN?
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
The
FUTURE
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
CurrentChallenges
BACK TO REALITY:Current Challenges
Today’s Marketplace / Manufacturing Challenges
Global OEM Development / Manufacturing Challenges
● Shorter product life cycles● Shorter Vehicle Development Process● Greater reliance on math modeling (simulations vs. physical
properties / testing)● Increasing regulatory requirements and design challenges● Meeting increased global fuel economy requirements driving
design challenges
Shorter product life cycles
Shorter vehicle development
process
Greater reliance on math
modeling
Increasing regulatory
requirements / design
challenges
Global economy requirements impact design
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges
Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
Global OEM Development / Manufacturing Challenges
● Focus on order to delivery (not building for the sake of building)● Shorter delivery windows● Smaller supply base with more parts per supplier● Greater reliance on suppliers doing sub-assembly work● Lean facilities and manpower● Non-traditional competitors entering markets
Focus on order to delivery
(not building for the sake of building)
Shorter delivery windows
Smaller supply base with more
parts per supplier
Greater reliance on suppliers for sub-assembly
work
Lean facilities and manpower
Non-traditional competitors
entering markets
An Industry in FluxCurrent Challenges
Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Path to Now
BACK TO REALITY:Current Challenges
Today’s Marketplace / Manufacturing Challenges
Lean’s Limitations
What can still get better?
An Industry in Flux Current ChallengesLean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
Case 1:DELUSIONAL
Case 2: WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS
An Industry in Flux Current ChallengesLean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The Great Ormand Street Hospital (GOSH)
Problem: Children were dying after life-saving surgeries because of issues in transport to ICU
Only incremental improvement trying to do better within the same system.
Went outside their industry for a solution. Where? Formula 1 Racing
Studied Ferrari’s Formula 1 pit crew in action and copied what they did.
Massive transformation of process, practice, culture
Result: Dramatic improvement to children’s well-being and over 60% drop in mortality rate
Takeaway: to get to 1000% you have to be dramatic and try something you’ve never tried before. What needs to change: the culture.
TheGREAT ORMOND STREET HOSPITAL
Children were dying after life-saving surgeries because of issues in transport to ICU.
Only incremental improvement trying to do better within the same system.
Went outside their industry.Where? Formula 1 Racing.
Studied Ferrari’s Formula 1 pit crew in action and copied what they did.
Massive transformation of process, practice, culture.
PROBLEM: SOLUTION:
Result: Dramatic improvement to children’s well-being and over 60% drop in mortality rate
Takeaway: to get to 1000% you have to be dramatic and try something you’ve never tried before. What needs to change: the culture.
Dramatic improvement to children’s well-being and over 60% drop in mortality rate.
RESULT:
To get to 1000% you have to be dramatic and try something you’ve never tried before. The culture has to change.
TAKEAWAY:
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
LESSONS FROM THE PIT CREW
Forecast all possible scenarios and practice them Lessons from a
pit crew:1. Forecast all possible scenarios and practice
them2. Choreograph the changeover3. Use a dedicated overseer (aka the “lollipop
man”)4. Work in total silence
These lessons could not have been gleaned from another OR
Choreograph the changeover
Use a dedicated overseer (a “lollipop man”)
Work in total silence
1
2
3
4An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s
ComingQ&A
1000%: Futile or InevitableThe Path to Now
Where can manufacturinglook to meet today’s challenges?
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
READY OR
NOT
TheACCELERATING PACE OF CHANGE
Agricultural Revolution
Industrial Revolution Light Bulb Moon Landing
WorldWide Web
Human Genome Sequenced
8000 120 90 22 9Years
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
Communication: Mail to email to skypeLogistics: Pony express to AmazonQuality: Noguchi methodsComputation: (Moore’s law, 1979 super computer vs. iPhone)
Huge Innovations in short time span:Rocketry: (nasa vs. spacex)Self driving cars:
1000% BETTER
Communication:mail to email to
Skype
Logistics:The Pony Express to Amazon
Quality:Noguchi methods
Computation:Moore’s Law in
action
Huge Innovations in a short time span: Rocketry:
SpaceX1000% cheaper
Self-driving cars
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
Traveling only 7 miles on a closed 150-mile track,
Sandstorm won the 2004 Darpa Grand Challenge
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
Today,
OVER 1,000,000 autonomous miles have been
driven between Google and Tesla
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s Limitations The Technology’s Coming
Q&A1000%: Futile or
InevitableThe Path to Now
The Technology is Coming
Human Beings and Connected Devices (Millions)
Source: Cisco Systems, LM Ericsson, Raymond James research
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
Convergence: The source of exponential innovation● IoT, sensors, visibility (Incorporates Bits of information we don’t have the
capacity to analyze yet)○ In the factory, and in the field, all going back to the product designers to
make things better● “The cloud” (all information, on any device, at any time)● Improvements in info sharing
○ Model Based Definition (show 3dPDF data packages)● Improvements in design / simulations (fusion 360 w/ Finite element Analysis)● Advances in digital manufacturing (rapid prototyping / cnc)● Robotics
THIS ALL GOES TO IMPROVE QUALITY and reduce COSTS!
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
IoT The cloud Improvements in communication
Improvements in design / simulation
Digital manufacturing
Robotics
CONVERGENCE: The source of exponential innovation
THIS ALL GOES TO IMPROVE QUALITY and REDUCE COSTS.
AUGMENTEDREALITY
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
THE CLOUD:All your info, anytime, anywhere, on any device
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
HYBRID DIGITAL DOCUMENTATION
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
SENSORS
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
CONNECTED FACTORY- Shop floor systems all connected- No more manual systems and materials
CONNECTED SUPPLY CHAIN- Constant data flow
between plant and sub-contractors
CONNECTED PRODUCT LIFESTYLE
IMPROVEMENTS IN QUALITY
WHAT WOULD A 1000% IMPROVED SUPPLY CHAIN LOOK LIKE?
What would a 1000% improved supply chain look like?
● Connected factory (IMAGE OF CONNECTED FACTORY)○ Shop floor systems all connected○ No more manual systems and
materials: (what are they: process control charting, standardized work instructions, trouble-shooting guides (replaced with google glass))
● Connected Supply chain○ Data flow back and forth between
plant and sub-contractors (No more phone calls!)
● Connected Product lifecycle● Improvements in quality
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
21st Century Product Lifecycle
MAKETIME ● “Localized production”● Real time capacity visibility● Distributed (Decentralized, agile
supply chain) vs. hierarchical● Matching● Pull vs. Push based production● Integrates directly with CAD
MAKETIME
“Localized Production”
Real Time Capacity Visibility
Distributed (decentralized,
agile supply chain) vs.
Hierarchical
MatchingPull vs. Push
Based Production
Integrates Directly with
CAD
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable
The tech to achieve 1000% is converging.
IS THE CULTURE OF MANUFACTURING
READY?
An Industry in Flux Current Challenges Lean’s LimitationsThe Technology’s
Coming Q&AThe Path to Now 1000%: Futile or Inevitable