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Geopolitical issues
Part III
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Population displacements and migration
Session 5
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Introduction
Throughout history, men have always migrated for environmental reasons
But that’s also a reason largely ignored by researchers and policy makers.
Despite growing concerns
Linkage between environment and migration still controversial
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Historical examples
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The emergence of the concept First mentioned in the 1970s First UNEP report in 1985 Growing interest in the mid-2000s:
Realisation of the impacts of climate change
Major natural disasters Tsunami 2004 Katrina 2005 Pakistan earthquake 2005
> Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.
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A complex relationship
Migration itself is a very complex processInvolves a wide array of factors, individual decision
Environmental factors are linked with economic, social and political factorsWhen is environmental pressure the primary factor?
Environmental disruption can be a cause and a consequence of migration Resource scarcity, ‘green’ conflicts,...
Migration can also help to reduce the presure on resources
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Which impacts of climate change can lead to displacements?
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1. Sea-level riseCoastal regions will be first and most affected
Source: NASA
A sea-level rise of 1cm puts 1 million people at risk of displacement
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2. Droughts and land degradation Impacts on migration difficult to forecast
Migration flows tend to decrease at the peak of droughts
That’s because households affect their resources to primary needs.
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3. Extreme meteorological events
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Characteristics of the migrants Positive relationship between environmental degradation and migration.
Different factors intermingle, but environmental factors are of growing importance. Definitional issue
These factors increase the constraints to migration Rise in forced migration
Migration flows are often internal, and happening on short distances Affected countries bear all the burden of migration.
The most vulnerable are often unable to migrate. Migration is expensive
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Issue of the definition Difficult
Mostly internal migration Mingles with other factors
Controversial Alarmists vs sceptics A broad definition invites large numbers Different agendas Wide variety of terms (often misnomers)
Important Policy-wise Allows to forecast numbers
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A disconnection from the realities of migration
Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change. Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such.
Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable
Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy
We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.
We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.
We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change. Environmental determinism
Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security. In many cases, it can actually improve human security.
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London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London
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Example 1Tuvalu
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Key facts about Tuvalu Successfully marketed itself as a country at risk of being washed away by sea-level rise, sending out the first ‘climate change refugees’
Archipelago of nine islands, five of them are coral atolls.
Around 9,500 inhabitants; 4,500 live on the main atoll, Funafuti.
26 km2, one of the world’s highest population density (373, but 1,610 in Funafuti)
Highest point at 4 m above sea-level
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Tuvalu’s economy
Only resources are stamps, « .tv » internet domain and fishing licences
Wholly artificial economy, entirely dependant upon international aid (trust fund, remittances, etc.)
Very few jobs and high unemployment rate
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Climate change
Major concern amongst inhabitants, fear of a brutal tsunami or hurricane
Extreme vulnerability to sea-level rise
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Effects of climate change difficult to assess
Lack of scientific data about sea-level rise, no measurements
People rely on anecdotal evidence, oral environmental history
King tides every year, in February-March
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King tides
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Other environmental issues
Overpopulation Waste disposal ‘Borrow pits’ Lack of drinkable water
Soil salinity
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Migration Important internal migration, from outer islands to Funafuti
About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in Auckland
Forced or voluntary migration? Issue of timescale
The whole region is highly prone to migration, part of Polynesian lifestyle
New Zealand is the only possible destination: Pacific Access Category Seasonal labour scheme
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Resettlement Considered many times in Tuvalu’s history In 1890s, suggested as a solution to overpopulation problem
Population of Funafuti relocated on an outer island by Americans during WWII
Purchase of the island of Kioa in 1951 Repeated plea by the government, in relation to climate change
However, works by John Campbell (Waikato U.) show difficulties in community relocation
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Expatriates in Auckland About 3,000 Tuvaluans living in West Auckland
NZ Government supporting some aspects of cultural life
Some weight in national and local politics
‘Pull’ factor of migration
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Government’s dilemmas
Adapt or flee? Role of the state is crucial The government is actually encouraging emigration - ‘We want to give people a choice before it is too late’
But also needs to keep attracting international aid
Preparing resettlement would clash with population’s views
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Do people move because of climate change?
Wide range of factors: Family and social networks in New Zealand Job opportunities, better wages Only the wealthier can afford to migrate ... And concerns about sea-level rise
Key factor: uncertainty about the future, that acts as a trigger.
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Uncertainty and futurity
People do not migrate for themselves, but for their children - some of them born in New Zealand
Concerns about the future of Tuvalu seem more important than actual degradations of the environment
Issue of uncertainty and futurity
Migration as a risk-reduction strategy for the family
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Example 2Katrina
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Basic facts One of the worst disasters in US history:
About 2,000 fatalities 75 % of homes in New Orleans destroyed 1,200,000 people evacuated on the Gulf Coast US$ 85 billion damage Disaster mainly due to the levee breaches One quarter of New Orleans population without car
Help didn’t arrive before Setember 3rd, four days after the disaster
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Evacuation Mandatory evacuation ordered by Mayor Nagin on August 28.
Overall quite successful: 85 % evacuated
About 60,000 were stranded in the city Because they had no car Because they were ill, old, or disabled Because they had pets Because they didn’t know where to go Because they were unwilling to leave
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Evacuation patterns Extremely diversified
Some people traveled very far away, others stayed relatively close.
Some traveled on their own, others were evacuated.
Some stayed with friends/relatives, others stayed in hotels/rented properties
Some could choose where they were going, others not
And some did not move at all.
> The perception of the evacuation was also very diverse.
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Three conclusions> Despite the collective dimension of the tragedy, the evacuation process was an individual process.
> Forced or voluntary migration? People’s perceptions are very different.
> The most vulnerable were far less off
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Most vulnerable were far less off
Many were stranded in the city. Those evacuated had no choice of their destination
This affected their ability to cope while away
Tend to blame Government and FEMA more severely.
Issue of adaptability
> Katrina was also, and maybe most of all, a social disaster.
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Return Also very diverse patterns: some returned quickly, others after some time, others not at all.
Only about half of the population has returned to the city: 37 % live in Louisiana 34 % live in Texas (mostly Houston) 9 % live in Georgia (mostly Atlanta) 20 % live in another state
Only 11 % plan to return 52 % are certain they will not return Migration rather than displacement
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Exemple 3 - Fukushima
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(22 Apr – 30 Sep 2011)
(30 Sep 2011 - present)
Restricted Area Restricted Area
Evacuation-Prepared Area
Deliberate Evacuation Area
Deliberate Evacuation Area
Specific Spots Recommended for
Evacuation Specific Spots Recommended for
Evacuation
Evacuation zones
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Trauma and tensions
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http://www.devast-project.org
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Policy responses: Different directions Environmental policies
Rapid evolution since the 1990s People displaced by natural disasters and/or climate change increasingly taken into account
New actors and structures: IASC, CCEMA, rise of adaptation in climate talks
New instruments: Hyogo Framework Operational Guidelines on Human Rights and Natural Disasters
Adaptation Funds
> Climate negotiations often considered as the central policy forum with regard to environmental migration
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Migration and asylum policies Have not really taken into account environmental factors so far
Very little progress in the governance of migration, no new instruments
Exception: temporary protection status
Two points to consider: Traditional theories of migration are environmentally-blind
Migration scholars have a lesser impact on policy design than environmental scholars
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Legal matters
People displaced by climate change are not refugees, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention:
No political persecution But isn’t climate change a violent, political persecution to the most vulnerable?
Not always a border crossing The displaced people flee their livelihood, not always their country
Forced migration? Climate change adds a new dimension to the traditional distinction between forced and voluntary migration.
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Two key policy issues
Enabling the right to leave Enabling the right to choose
This will require different policy shifts: Going beyond humanitarian aid Not discriminating between displacements associated with climate change and those that are not.
Not restricting oneself to refugee law (Hyogo Framework, etc.)
Not focusing only on those who leave, but also one those who stay, sometimes forcibly.
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Enabling the right to leave A challenge of migration policy The right to leave is the key condition of asylum, originating after the Peace of Westphalia.
This right is currently jeopardised by environmental change.
The most vulnerable often find themselves unable to leave Because they don’t have the resources to do so Because of barriers to migration
Their life, health and livelihood are directly exposed to danger
Migration as a risk-reduction strategy Issue of pro-active population displacements
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Enabling the right to chooseA challenge of adaptation policy Many of the migrants are forced migrants, and many of the stayers are forced stayers.
Adaptation In the origin region, adaptation will reduce the environmental constraints to migration.
Migration itself can be an adaptation strategy. Adaptation will also be needed in the destination regions.
Adaptation and disaster-risk reduction Burden-sharing and internationalisation of the costs.
No discrimination between climate change and other disasters.