Download - Geographic Isolation Scenarios
Geographic Isolation Scenarios
Purpose
• Understand which basins affect which areas of the bay and by how much
Procedure
• Set the Susquehanna at Tier 3 loads and all other watersheds at 2000 levels
• Record the relative change in attainment for each criterion and designated use area
• Repeat for each basin
Progress
• All basins completed
• Incorporated improvements in process
• Results are provisional
Why Still Provisional
• Small changes difficult to compare to large changes
• Different basins have different N:P:Sed ratios
TN reduction to Tier3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Susq Potomac James ESMD WSMD Rapp York ESVA Patux
mil
lio
n l
b p
er y
ear
Tier3 Load
Tier3 redux
TP reduction to Tier3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
James Susq Potomac ESMD Rapp York WSMD ESVA Patux
mil
lio
n l
b p
er y
ear
Tier3 Load
Tier3 redux
SED reduction to Tier3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Potomac Susq James ESMD Rapp Patux York WSMD ESVA
mil
lio
n t
on
s p
er y
ear
Tier3 Load
Tier3 redux
Presentation Rules
• Do not show normalized results for Patuxent or ESVA.
• Do not consider changes below a particular threshold to be significant
• CL spring = 0.0011• CL summer = 0.005• KE = 0.0006
Other Considerations
• Final criteria curves not implemented
• Final model applications areas not decided
• Final designated use boundaries and clarity depths not decided
Results
• Problems (red areas)
• Who has biggest impact
• Who has biggest relative effectiveness
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay
#N/A #N/A
20
39
3 #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A
10
10
9
#N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A
70
51
87
#N/A #N/A #N/A0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay
0
5
10
15
20
25
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Main Bay
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
pe
r m
illi
on
lbs
red
uce
d
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Channel - Potomac
#N/A #N/A8
#N/A #N/A
9
#N/A #N/A
83
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Channel - Potomac
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Main Bay
#N/A 0
25
38
72 0 #N/A#N/A
4
10
10
10
94
#N/A#N/A
96
66
52
8390
96
#N/A0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Main Bay
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Patuxent
#N/A #N/A6
#N/A #N/A
10
#N/A #N/A
84
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Patuxent
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Potomac
#N/A #N/A
27
#N/A #N/A
10
#N/A #N/A
63
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Potomac
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock
#N/A #N/A
17
#N/A#N/A #N/A
10
#N/A#N/A #N/A
73
#N/A0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Rappahannock
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - York
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 0 0#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A5 5
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
95 95
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - York
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore
57
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
10
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
33
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Deep Water - Eastern Shore
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Main Bay
0 0 3 4 0 0 1 01 3
9 9
2 38
2
99 9788 87
98 9792
98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Main Bay
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
0.05
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Patuxent
0 052 5
9
98 95
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Patuxent
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMHRed
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Potomac
0 052
7
9
9893
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Potomac
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Rappahannock
0 0 0 01 15 5
99 9995 95
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Rappahannock
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - York
0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 3 6 2
99 99 99 99 97 94 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - York
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - James
0 0 0 01 1 1 3
99 99 99 97
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - James
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore
2 0 0 0 0 0
83 6 5 4 1
9097 94 95 96 99
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - DO Open Water - Eastern Shore
0
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.008
0.009
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Main Bay
2 1 0 0 18 7 55 4 4 2 4
8 88
94 94 96 98 95
84 85 87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Main Bay
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Main Bay
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Patuxent
4 1 1
87 6
8892 94
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Patuxent
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Patuxent
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Potomac
1 054
2
8
95 98
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Potomac
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Potomac
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Rappahannock
1 0 0 05
3 4 2
94 97 96 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Rappahannock
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Rappahannock
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - York
0 0 0 0 0 3 32 2 2 26
6 5
98 98 98 9893 91 92
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - York
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - James
61 0
198
6 5
9
8693 95
72
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - James
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Spring - Eastern Shore
0 0 0 1 0 02 4 2 4 4 2
98 96 98 96 96 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll spring - Eastern Shore
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Main Bay
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 04
26 5 2 4 2 2
95 9894 95 98 96 98 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Main Bay
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Main Bay
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Patuxent
42
21
5
10
10
9
48
69
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Patuxent
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Patuxent
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Potomac
18
1 2
9
58
73
9490
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Potomac
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Potomac
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Rappahannock
14
0 0 0
9
2 3 2
77
98 97 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Rappahannock
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Rappahannock
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - York
0 1 0 0 1 0 02 3 2 26
4 4
98 96 98 9893 96 96
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - York
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - York
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - James
20
1 0 0
10
53 2
70
94 97 98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - James
0
5
10
15
20
25
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - James
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Chlorophyll Summer - Eastern Shore
1
14
0 4 0 05
10
2
6
3 3
94
77
9890
97 97
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Eastern Shore
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Chlorophyll summer - Eastern Shore
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Main Bay
50
27
50
37 39 3834
30
10
10
10
1010 10
1010
41
64
41
53 51 5256
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Main Bay
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
CB1TF CB2OH CB3MH CB4MH CB5MH CB6PH CB7PH CB8PH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Patuxent
27 24 26
1010
10
64 67 64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Patuxent
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
PAXTF PAXOH PAXMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Potomac
48 49
30
10 10
10
42 41
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Potomac
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
POTTF POTOH POTMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Rappahannock
41
13
26
54
10
7
9
10
49
80
65
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock
0
5
10
15
20
25
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Rappahannock
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
RPPTF RPPOH RPPMH PIAMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - York
19 16
2
49
1419 21
89
5
10
9
1010
73 75
93
41
7771 69
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - York
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
PMKTF PMKOH MPNTF MPNOH YRKMH YRKPH MOBPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - James
44
31
19
7
10
9
10
8
46
60
71
85
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - James
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
0.04
0.045
JMSTF JMSOH JMSMH JMSPH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Criteria Achievement - Clarity - Eastern Shore
20
72
38 41
18
6
9
10
109
10
8
71
18
53 50
73
86
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed
Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Patuxent
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
VA Eastern Shore
Relative Effectiveness of Reductions - Clarity - Eastern Shore
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
EASMH CHOOH CHOMH1 CHOMH2 TANMH POCMH
Red
per
cen
tag
e p
oin
ts g
ain
ed p
er m
illio
n lb
s re
du
ced Susquehanna
MD Western Shore
Potomac
Rappahannock
York
James
MD Eastern Shore
Preliminary Findings - Clarity
• Local Problem
• Susquehanna influence felt in upper half of bay
Preliminary Findings - Chlorophyll
• Local Problem
• Susquehanna influence felt in upper half of bay
Preliminary Findings – DO Deep Channel
• CB3 through CB5
• Susquehanna influence strong but decreasing
• Rappahannock and north have strong local effect
• James and York are minor effects
• POTMH is part of the mainstem
Preliminary Findings – DO Deep Water
• Similar to DO Deep Channel, but the local effect is more pronounced.
Still to Come
• Revise with new criteria bioreference curves, designated use boundaries, and clarity depths.
• After tidal fresh allocations are made, do a similar analysis to inform the final allocation decisions.