Download - Gaseous Emissions from Irish Agriculture Trevor Donnellan FAPRI-Ireland Partnership Teagasc Dublin
Gaseous Emissions from Irish Agriculture
Trevor Donnellan
FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipTeagascDublin
OutlineOutline
Background
Methodology
Analysis to date
(European model)
BackgroundBackground
FAPRI-Ireland Partnersip founded in 1997 Partners
– Teagasc (Irish Agriculture & Food Development Authority)
– Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA)
– National Universities of Ireland
– Partner project in Northern Ireland
Key Aim– To project future levels of agricultural income
– Under various policy scenarios
• Macroeconomic conditions (exogenous)
• Policy conditions (exogenous)
• Market conditions (exogenous and endogenous)
• Events in other agriculture sectors (endogenous)
Activity data projectionsActivity data projections
FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipFAPRI-Ireland Partnership
FAPRIWorld Model
FAPRIEU Model
Ireland Model
FAPRI-Ireland modelFAPRI-Ireland model
Multi-product modelling system
Supply and demand inter-relationships
Econometric and synthetic equations
Partial equilibrium, dynamic model
Projections of activity levels– Animal numbers, land use, input use
Allows projection of gaseous emissions
Cereals
Inputs
Poultry
PigsSheep
Beef
Dairy
Milk Output Values
Beef Output Values
Sheep Output Values
Poultry Output Values
Pig Output Values
Poultry Meal Prices
Poultry NumbersPoultry PricesDairy Cow
Numbers
Dairy Meal Price Cereal Prices, Production, Value &
Hectares
Cattle Feed Price
Cattle Numbers
Cattle FeedPrice
Pig Numbers
Pig Meal Price
Beef Cow Numbers
Dairy Cow Numbers
Dai
ry C
ow
Num
ber
sCommodity Model Inter LinkagesCommodity Model Inter Linkages
FAPRI-Ireland modelFAPRI-Ireland model
Historical data collection
Equation specification (Y = + 1X1 + 2X2 )
Equations estimation
Models assembling in spreadsheets
Model solving
Expert review
Total Milk Production
Liquid Milk
Butter
Cream
Cheese
WMP
Choc. Crumb
Manufacturing Milk Price
Liquid Milk Price
Domestic Sales
Intervention
Domestic Sales
Exports
Milk Output
Milk Output per Cow No. Dairy Cows
Milk Fed to Livestock
On FarmHuman Use
SMP
Casein
Manufacturing Milk
Misc . Prods.
Liquid Consumption
Milk Delivered
Dairy model
Calculation of GHG Calculation of GHG EmissionsEmissions
Livestock Numbers
Input Application
Enterprise Area
Conversion Coefficients
Methane Emissions
Nitrous Oxide
Emissions
Conversion Coefficients
GHGs in Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Calculation of Ammonia Calculation of Ammonia EmissionsEmissions
Livestock Production
Manure
Conversion Coefficients
Manure Storage Practices
Crop Production
Fertiliser Application
Inorganic Fertiliser
Ammonia Release
Pure Ammonia
ProjectionsProjections
•Baseline Current policy remains in place
Current international agreements in place
No new policy
•Scenario Alternative policy
Method of differences
Results to dateResults to date
Emissions work to date
Baseline projections 2002 & 2003
Scenarios– MTR Proposals
– Luxembourg MTR Agreement including various beef decoupling options
Sample OutputSample Output
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dairy cows tonne NH3 32,566 32,160 31,767 31,388 31,072 30,753
Cattle 0-1 tonne NH3 5,080 4,980 4,909 4,845 4,788 4,742
Cattle 1-2 tonne NH3 11,216 10,994 10,837 10,696 10,571 10,469
Other cattle tonne NH3 23,931 23,373 23,033 22,735 22,476 22,240
Total cattle tonne NH3 72,793 71,507 70,546 69,665 68,907 68,205
Similar projections are produced for other livestock and crops
Sample Output
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
1990 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
000 t
on
nes N
H3
Baseline Scenario
ConclusionsConclusions
Emissions decline under Baseline policy
But…..
Ag. Policy reform further reduces Ag. activity
Livestock numbers, input use– Reductions are greater than in Baseline
Overall emissions under policy reform (MTR) are lower than under Baseline (Agenda 2000)
Thank You
www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri
Further information on our work is available
on our website at: