Download - FUTURE POLICY MODELLING (FUPOL) MAY 2012 · 2014-03-24 · FUTURE POLICY MODELLING (FUPOL) MAY 2012
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FUTURE POLICY MODELLING (FUPOL) MAY 2012
www.fupol.eu www.facebook.com/fupol
Overview
Current Status
Q&A, discussion
www.fupol.eu www.facebook.com/fupol
FP7 Research Project 2011 – 2015 with a budget of 9,0 Mio EUR
Objective: An integrated governance model for cities based on social media policy simulation and related IT tools
Good balance of international ICT companies, universities and political institutions
17 Partners from Austria, Croatia, China, Cyprus, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia,
Romania, Spain, UK
FUPOL: Facts and Figures
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Starting point: Urbanization as a 21st century megatrend
1800: 2 percent of the world was urban.
1900: 14 percent urban.
2008, the world crossed the 50 percent threshold.
2050, it is expected that the world will be 80 percent urban.
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Resulting urban policy challenges and topics as a project focus
Land Use Policy
Urban Sprawl Efficient land use
Housing Policy
Affordable Housing Slums
Integration Policy
Segregation Exclusion
Environment
Pollution Low Carbon
2011/2012
2012/2013 (currently being evaluated)
Tourism Policy
Sustainable Tourism
Budget Policy
Participative Budgeting Impact Forecast
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Training Material and Guidelines
Urban Policies Simulation Recommendation Policy Models
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FUPOL
IT TOOLBOX
Objective: A comprehensive solution to support policy design
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Scenarios, Simulation
Stakeholder Involvement
„Hot“ Topic sensing
Application Scope: Policy Design Process (simplified)
Automatically collect, analyze and interpret opinions expressed on a large scale from the Internet Involve Stakeholders through Multichannel social computing and crowd sourcing to change the way politicians communicate with citizens Simulate the effects of policies and laws and to assist governments in the whole policy design process and get feedback again
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Automatically collect and analyze opinions from social media
What is the current concern of citizens „Hot Topics“
Social Media offer new opportunities complementing „traditional“ channels
such as surveys, face to face meetings
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Backend to existing social media presence of a city
Hot Topic Sensing complements existing social media presence
Backend to automatically analyze messages and group them
FUPOL method based on statistical algorithms (LDA) and machine learning –
works with any European language
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Select priority topic and initiate public deliberation
Decision maker selects priority topic
Initiates public discussion through various social media
„Single Window“ through central dashboard
Malibu Square Renovation We intend to renovate
Malibu square,. What should be done ? Send us your ideas !
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Location based feedback from e-citizens
Rating and selection of best ideas with idea management system
Improves acceptance by e-citizen
© Meipi Prato
Crowdsourcing : Get feedback and ideas from e-citizen
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Simulation: Anticipate the impact of policies
More transparency for decision makers, administration and citizen
Land Use Schiphol 2012 2030 after implementing a policy to attract industrial investment
Source: RIKS
Simulate and optimize scenarios
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FUPOL-Knowledge database
Identify and visualize urban data (statistics)
Identify related studies
Find best practice
Evaluate scenarios
Find and visualize knowledge to evaluate scenarios
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User driven innovation means
- thorough understanding of requirements and current challenges in city administrations drives R & D
- close contact to pilot cities and potential users in other cities through F2F meetings and workshops
- Major Cities of Europe (www.majorcities.eu) in the consortium
Implementation strategy (I) User driven innovation
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• Incremental delivery of working software
• Continuous multi-level integration
• High level of test automation
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• Iterative approach
• Short controlling cycles (monthly or 2 weeks, tbc)
• Timeboxed
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• Output planning based on user stories
• Priority of work based on „value added“ (business value, risk mitigation, knowledge gained, …)
• Valuable work has a higher priority than less valuable work
Implementation strategy (II) Agile based on SCRUM
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Continous release of results
Research & Development
Testing / Pilots
Exploitation
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rel 0.1 July 2012
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Overview
Current Status
Q&A, discussion
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Overall progressing as planned, software development 3 months ahead of schedule because of the agile methodology
Policy design
Urban policy domains analyzed and prioritized
Analysis of social media in urban politics finalized
Study of data protection issues completed
Policy simulation
Some policy models defined as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps & causal models
Land use SW state of the art analyzed
Land use protoype in NETLOGO implemented
Status and results
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Software development
Requirements collected, IT-architecture defined
Enterprise GIS set-up
Software development started in March 2012
Visualization: State of the art study concluded
Hot Topic Sensing & Topic summarization:
State of the Art analysis concluded
Design initiated
Status and results
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Land-use, housing, segregation selected for 2011/2012 and policy design
processes, data and indicators of selected domains studied
Domain selection criteria
1. Linkage of the domain to a major urban challenge - this refers to the linkage of the domain to a major urban challenge such as urban sprawl, slums, etc.
2. Availability of statistical data - this is important, because without data simulation is very difficult.
3. Pilot city priority - the priorities assigned by the pilot cities were important in the overall ranking.
4. Overall priority – finally the overall priorities (European and worldwide).
Policy domain selection
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Some policy models defined as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps & Causal Models
Building models, which are applicable across different countries and cultures could be a challenge
Policy Models and simulation
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Not in widespread use – benefits are not recognized
Weak point: Social media strategy
Weak point: Social media guidelines for employees
Some politicians are afraid of social media, because they cannot
be controlled
City administrations fear additional workload and „PR-disasters“ resulting
from bad communication between civil servants and citizens
Social medias usage model developed as part of the FUPOL policy guidelines
Analysis social media in urban politics, status and best practice
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Proposed Model Social Media in Urban Politics
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Social Media data (postings etc) can be processed, because the individual has unambiguously given his or her consent
However it has been decided to anonymize them for further processing
Data Protection & Social Media
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IT-Platform: Core Platform Architecture decided
FUPOL uses a service oriented architecture (SOA)
Modules communicate over the ESB using standard protocols (WFS/WCS/WMS/SPARQL) if possible and proprietary APIs (FUPOL Core API over SOAP) if no standards apply (i.e. campaign data, user activity,…)
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IT-Platform: „Campaign“ in the policy design process
„Campaigns“ maintains the sequence of actions and their results by the user (facilitator) in the policy design process and its results
time
The facilitator adds data from the data/ knowledge base
The facilitator collects social media data using the crawler
The facilitator creates topic trees using the topicalization tool
The facilitator starts the simulation and adds the results
The facilitator writes his final report and closes the campaign. Some generated data might be added to the data base for later reuse
The facilitator creates a new campaign
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IT-Platform: Enterprise GIS set-up
Stores all data
Maps names to coordinates
Used by the sysop
Maps INSPIRE data
Provides WFS/WCS/WMS
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State of the art and social media monitoring tools evaluated
Data sourcing: How to reduce them to the relevant postings ?
Conventional keyword search available in many social media
monitoring tools is unsuitable
Predefined sources (certain blogs, Twitter hashtags..) is an option
Better option is to use geolocalized data of postings from social networks
as a filter (if available)
Hot topic sensing
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Automatic Topic Summarization: State of the art study finalized
We can determine the ‘representative’ sentences in an input with good accuracy. Depending on the domain, we can determine if sentences evoke positive or negative feelings towards a topic
There is some ability to model the structure of a conversation in an online forum and understand the progression of an argument/discussion
There is very little work on true abstractive summarization; most results are simply extracted phrases/sentences from an input
Difficulties when the data is “noisy” (i.e. poor spelling, use of slang, etc.)
Summary
Documents belonging to the same topic
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Automatic Topic summarization: Methods under investigation
“Traditional” summaries of citizen comments:
Processed extracted sentences that are representative of citizens’ comments strung together into a shorter representation
“Report”-style summaries of comments: Generated text that describes important discussed issues along with some analysis and example comments
Ranked “topic”-word and -sentence lists of comment themes: Lists of discovered words and sentences that are representative of citizens’ comments
“Opinion” summaries: Summaries that highlight the diverging opinions or sentiment (positive/negative) on different topics/projects
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Upcoming….
June 2012 Major Cities of Europe Conference 2012 in Vienna:
Important event – user dialogue through a workshop
July 2012 First release of software core platform
August 2012 Second release of software core platform
October 2012 First set of policy models and other documents (e.g. pilot planning)
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Take Part !
Follow us:
Website (www.fupol.eu)
Facebook (www.facebook.com/fupol)
Take part: Test and evaluate the FUPOL results
Establish relations to exchange views
Dr. Peter Sonntagbauer
Project Director FUPOL cellent AG Tel.: +43 (1) 532 78 03-0 Fax: +43 (1) 532 78 03-33 Mobile: +43 (676) 42 84 724 e-mail [email protected]
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at.linkedin.com/in/petersonntagbauer
Sonntagbauer, Peter
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION