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Future of Skills in Europe: Convergence or Polarisation?
Ilaria MaselliCEPS
Milano, Fondazione Feltrinelli13 Marzo 2015
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In this presentation
• Why not enough graduates from STEM disciplines?
• Is job polarisation happening in Europe?
• What does it mean to be a low-skilled?
• What happens when higher education is extended to the masses?
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What can we learn from the universalisation of secondary
educ?• Expansion lower for the leaders (SE,
UK)• Faster for the laggards• As enrollment exceeds 80% =>
demand for educ differentiates• + value of different degrees not the
same (liceo vs. istituto tecnico)
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And for tertiary educ? I
• Does it make sense to speak about returns from tertiary education in general when more and more enroll into higher educ?
• Need to take into account the investment (actual + opportunity cost – hours/years)
• Need to differentiate by discipline
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What we do practically
• Earnings 5 yrs after graduation – • cost of education, discounted
= actual cost of educ + opportunity cost – hours worked
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Results (1): in absolute numbers - F
Educ & Hum/art Social s., business, law
Stem Health & Related Services
-2,000 €
0 €
2,000 €
4,000 €
6,000 €
8,000 €
10,000 €
12,000 €
-547 €
4,728 €
-1,189 €
9,740 €
Educ & Hum/art Social s., business, law
Stem Health & Related Services
0 €
2,000 €
4,000 €
6,000 €
8,000 €
10,000 €
12,000 €
14,000 €
16,000 €
18,000 €
10,277 €
16,708 €
4,022 €
10,965 €
Italy
Slovenia
Source: Authors’ elaboration
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Results (2): in absolute numbers - M
Educ & Hum/art Social s., business, law
Stem Health & Related Services
-15,000 €
-10,000 €
-5,000 €
0 €
5,000 €
10,000 €
15,000 €
20,000 €
-9,981 €
10,146 €
2,025 €
14,786 €
Educ & Hum/art Social s., business, law
Stem Health & Related Services
5,000 €
7,000 €
9,000 €
11,000 €
13,000 €
15,000 €
17,000 €
19,000 €
7,920 €
19,307 €
15,414 €14,458 €
Italy
Slovenia
Source: Authors’ elaboration
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Costs and Benefits Compared
Source: Authors’ elaboration
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And for tertiary educ? I I• Cost of education matters: via hours
studied, hours worked, length of studies
• STEM case in FR and IT • and for women in general• Worth studying social science and
medicine!
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And for tertiary educ? II
• So….what to Study …Matters! Signaling power Within inequality – like with expansion of
secondary education
• A rational decision? Go to STEM only if wealthier and
smarter (or both) Policy-makers can play with incentives
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…yet
• No need to worry of high-skilled unempl
2003 2013 202360
65
70
75
80
85
67.0
70.072.5
75.1
78.180.1
Activity Rates in 2023 - No Policy Scenario
Act
ivit
y r
ate
s
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 4550
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2007 2013
Employment rate
Share
of
ISC
ED
5-8
• Eventually over-education BUT..
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On the demand side
What job polarisation looks like in the EU
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Why is that?
• Technology
• Globalisation
• Feminisation of the LM
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What does it mean to be a low-skilled?
• Workers can BE low skilled (Isced 0-2)
• But also BECOME– Technological change– Job polasization– Long-term unemployment–Migration
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Convergence or polarization?
• Net effect not clear–Convergence between groups (less low-skilled, more high-skilled)–Polarisation within groups (ex. graduates)
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Challenges for policy-making I
• What will the future look like?• “I never make predictions, especially about the future” Sam
Goldwyn
=> challenge for policy-making = build resilient labour market– Early childhood education?
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Challenges for policy-making II
• Il mistero italiano: migliori fattori di produzione e crescita 0 !!!???
4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5400
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
Reading_M Math_M Reading_F Math_F
Expenditure on Education, % of GDP, 2011
PIS
A S
core
20
12
• Quality and quantity of education– Weak
relationship between expenditure and PIIAC results!
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Domanda
• 3 riforme attualmente in discussione – Jobs act– Istruzione– Pubblico impiego
• Come si configurano rispetto a questi trend?