The Future of MobilityThe Future of Mobility
From Mega Trends to the Driverless CarFrom Mega Trends to the Driverless Car
by
Dorman Followwill
Partner
Mega Trends Impacting Mobility
Global Mega Trends Impacting Mobility in the Future
Car Sharing/Car
Pooling
Geo-SocializationAnd Social Media
New Micro Mobility products
Integrated Mobility Solutions
E-Mobility
Connected and Wireless Planet
Sustainable Public Transportation and
BRT
High Speed Rail
Urbanization Mega and Smart Cities
New Business Models (Value for Many)
Power to the Middle Class and Gen Y
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 8 Million
and GDP of $250 Million in 2025 (13
Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in
2025)
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population Of 8 Million
and GDP of $250 Million in 2025 (13
Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in
2025)
EXAMPLE: Greater London
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120 Million)
MEGA CORRIDORS
The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions
EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120 Million)
Top 20 Mega Cities – Car Ownership Trend in Developed World Shows a Flat/Slight Decline
Population (Million)
Per capita 2025 (USD)
Cars per 1000 - 2009
Cars per 1000 – 2025
Tokyo 38.5 46,494 353 340
New York 25.9 67,591 230 220
London 14.4 57,746 400 340
Mexico City 21.0 33,795 209 270
Shanghai 21.0 32,952 32 122
São Paulo 21.5 28,001 150 335
Buenos Aires 13.8 43,581 190 350
Mumbai 26.4 21,224 24 72
Beijing 20.0 25,000 35 155
Delhi 22.5 21,335 117 250
Moscow 14.5 42,759 307 475
Guangzhou 11.8 36,332 43 173
Seoul 9.7 43,860 239 320
Top 20 Mega Cities – Regional Transportation PoliciesCongestion, low emission zones and road user charging initiatives in the emerging economies will have a major impact on car mobility
Delhi Mumbai Beijing Shanghai Moscow Seoul New York London Tokyo
Bus Rapid
Transit Lanes2011 2011
Metro/Subway 2011
Congestion
ChargingPlanned Planned 2012 2012 Future Planned Future
Parking Cuts
Road use
Charging/BanYes
1 Week Day
Ban
1 week Day
Ban
1 Week Day
Ban*Future
EV/Hybrid
Incentives
Bicycle Lanes
Emission
StandardEuro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4 Euro 4
Euro 3 Euro
4 by 2012Euro 4
CAFÉ
27.5mpg.
34.1 mpg
by 2016
Euro 4 Euro
5 by 2011
25%
reduction
by 2015
Not planned Existing currently * Voluntary no road usage incentive Source: Frost & Sullivan
Mobility Integrators (MI) – New Players Entering the MarketMI to Offer Innovative mobility solutions to complement commuters’ inter-modality and multi-modality travel split
Payment Engine
Online Mobility Booking Agency
Long Distance Mobility
Short Distance Urban Mobility
Telecom Operators
Tech Solutions Provider
MOBILE 2.0MOBILE 2.0
PublicTransport
RailBus
Shared Mobility Bike/Car Pooling
Taxi
Mobility Integrator
Car Rental & Fleet
Company
LBS & Telematics
Current EV OEMs
Parking Operators
EVER EXPANDING VALUE CHAIN
New Opportunity
The Future of Urban Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and ‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure - SMART
Vehicle Sharing
Source: ETSI Congestion Charging
Connectivity
Commercial Vehicle Telematics
V2V & V2X
Electric Vehicles
Real-Time Information
Services
Smart Ticketing/AFC:
Vehicle Management
Systems
Source: ETSI
Apps Store Services
IT Infrastructure
Car of the Future - The Driverless Car
Urbanisation Drives a New Reality: From Cities Designed around Cars to Cars Cars Designed around Mega CitiesDesigned around Mega Cities: OEMs to Develop New Vehicles and Platforms
•Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
•Electro-mobility – ZEV (Li-ion battery with 35 kWh capacity )
•Electric drive - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
•Lighter drive –CFRP passenger cell, Aluminum chassis.
•Megacity Vehicle – be launched in 2013.
•Electro-mobility – ZEV (Li-ion battery with 35 kWh capacity )
•Electric drive - Electric motor for quicker acceleration and zip drive.
•Lighter drive –CFRP passenger cell, Aluminum chassis.
•City Car in EU and NA •Compact Vehicle : 3099mm x 1,495mm•Low emissions; sub 1 litre engine (624cc), EV in future.•Turning radius: 4m.•Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
•City Car in EU and NA •Compact Vehicle : 3099mm x 1,495mm•Low emissions; sub 1 litre engine (624cc), EV in future.•Turning radius: 4m.•Low vehicle weight: 600 kg (1,300lb)
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city Pixo, Note and Cube•Compact Vehicle: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm•Low emissions: 1-litre engine, EV in future•Tight turning circle of 4.5m •Power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic•Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear
seats, customizable setting
• ‘City Cars’ – In sync with the city Pixo, Note and Cube•Compact Vehicle: less than 4,000mm x 1,675mm•Low emissions: 1-litre engine, EV in future•Tight turning circle of 4.5m •Power assisted steering for easy maneuvering in city traffic•Parking system, Start Stop system, Nissan Connect, foldable rear
seats, customizable setting
NISSAN
BMW
TATA
Though newer cars are becoming city-centric,
consumers are not relieved off hassles of purchase,
maintenance, parking, congestion, insurance and
inspection
Mega Cities need not just a car, but a flexible, hassle-free mobility solution that is eco-
friendly.
Urbanization Impact on Vehicle Technology PlanningOpportunity for OEMs to Develop Technologies for Customers’ Unmet Needs
Ergonomically designed comfortable seats for long commuting hours
Turning radius <4.3m to drive in congested streets
Start Stop System for frequent stop in traffic
Facebook on wheels, Internet in cars
3G/Wi-Fi Connectivity - V2V and V2X communication
Limited boot space and more head and leg room
CO2 less than 80 gm/km vehicles
Lightweight construction
Panoramic roofs
Navigation systems with route guidance and traffic information
Customised and personalised comfort functions
Smart vehicle access
Low speed collision avoidance for enhanced safety and pedestrian protection
Simple and easy to use HMI
Vehicle length of less than 3500mm
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Autonomous parking assist
Voice recognition technology
Mega City Cars Mega City Cars
EV Consumer Services
IT Mobility Platforms
EV Back-End
Services
Multimodal Transport Services
Connected Vehicle Services
Charging station access and location, state of charge,
smart charging
Charging station access and location, state of charge,
smart charging
Platform based in the car/smartphonePlatform based in the car/smartphone Platform based in EV charging infrastructure endPlatform based in EV charging infrastructure end
Introduction to IT Mobility PlatformsA mobility platform can be based in the vehicle or smartphone or charging end, but cloud impact is critical as diverse services are required to be delivered through this platform.
Car sharing reservation and location, multimodal transport
reminders, etc.
Car sharing reservation and location, multimodal transport
reminders, etc.Grid load monitoring,
forecasting, billing, V2GGrid load monitoring,
forecasting, billing, V2G
Real-time traffic, dynamic POI, Internet radio, social
networking, live TV, diagnostics, etc.
Real-time traffic, dynamic POI, Internet radio, social
networking, live TV, diagnostics, etc.
IT Mobility Platforms Market: Introduction to IT Mobility Platforms, Europe and United States, 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Mobility App Categories
Mobility App Categories
Advanced Driver Assistance Services
e.g. iOnRoad
Advanced Driver Assistance Services
e.g. iOnRoad
Dynamic Intermodal Transport Planning
e.g. Opti-Trans, Anystop
Dynamic Intermodal Transport Planning
e.g. Opti-Trans, Anystop
Parking Management and Payment Solutions
e.g. Parking Dialogue
Parking Management and Payment Solutions
e.g. Parking Dialogue
LBS Categories – e.g. Taxi Booking
e.g. 1TouchTaxi, TaxiZapp
LBS Categories – e.g. Taxi Booking
e.g. 1TouchTaxi, TaxiZapp
Crowdsourced Navigation and Traffic Application
e.g. Waze, Inrix, Beat the Traffic
Crowdsourced Navigation and Traffic Application
e.g. Waze, Inrix, Beat the Traffic
Dynamic Ride Sharinge.g. RelayRides, Carticipate
Dynamic Ride Sharinge.g. RelayRides, Carticipate
Augmented Reality Applicationse.g. Mobilizy
Augmented Reality Applicationse.g. Mobilizy
Others – Location-enabled social networking, remote
communicatione.g. Foursquare, Viper
SmartStart
Others – Location-enabled social networking, remote
communicatione.g. Foursquare, Viper
SmartStart
Mobile Apps Developed in a Variety of Fields Impacting Sustainability and New Age Mobility
Examples of Some Innovative Applications
Passenger Car Driving Dynamics, Driver Assistance and Comfort Technologies to be Integrated beyond 2015
Safety Comfort
Dynamics
beyond 2020
Intersection Assistant
Collision Warning and Avoidance
Driver Attention Monitoring
Overtaking Assistant
Electric Power Steering
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
Intelligent Parking Assist
Adaptive Cruise Control Stop &
Go
High Beam Assist
2010 - 2015
Lane Keeping Management
Integration Opportunities
Automatic Parking
360 Degree View Camera
2015 - 2020
Curve Speed Assistant
Autonomous Driving
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Lateral and Longitudinal Guidance, Map Integration and Car to X Communication to Enable Autonomous Driving
Driver Attention Monitoring
Blind Spot Detection
High Beam Assist
Lane Changing Assistant
Au
ton
om
ou
s Drivin
g
Lo
ng
itud
inal
Lateral
Lane Departure Warning
Pedestrian Detection & Protection
Traffic Jam
WarningCurve Speed
Warning
Traffic Sign Recognition
Overtake Assistant
Weather Warning
2010 2015 2020
E-CallCar to Car
Traffic Light
Assistant
Intersection Assistant
Car to Infrastructure
Passive Safety (Seatbelt, Airbag)
Speed Limit
Assistant
Drivetrain
Steering
ACC Stop & Go
Braking
Drivetrain
Steering
Night Vision Digital Map Data
Intelligent Parking Assist
Safety Systems Chassis Systems Applications/FunctionsDevelopment:Integration:
Braking
Low Speed Collision
Avoidance
High Speed Collision
Avoidance
Braking
Lateral Guidance
Longitudinal Guidance
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
From Using Independent Sensors and Simple Driving Dynamics, the Rate of Automation will Increase Steadily
Driver Warning /assist
Intervening safety
systems
Semi-autonomous
driving
On-demand autonomous
driving
Fully automated
cars Driver Chauffer
Less Automation
More Automation
Independent Sensors
Sensor Fusion
Maps+GPS
V-VDriving Dynamics
Intervening safety systems
Semi-autonomous
driving
On-demand autonomous driving
Fully automated cars
V-X
Radar, Video,
LIDAR, FIR
Yaw rate sensor
Steering angle sensor
Wheel speed sensor
Map data
Positioning data
Traffic data
V-V Inputs, V-I Inputs
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Vehicle to vehicle communication
Vehicle to Infrastructure communication
Lane Change Assistance
Side AssistLane Departure
Warning
Collision Warning
Rear collision warning and mitigation
Extended Collision Warning
Extended rear Collision
Warning and blind-spot
Communication & sensor based
Sensor based
Challenges1.Scalable and reliable communication system
2.Secutity issues
3.Availability (coverage area)
4.Certain market penetration necessary for availability
5.Needs cross industry synergy and government support for deployment
Traffic Lights, Traffic Signs, Curves, Road charging
Weather , Emergency vehicles, Traffic jams, Road works, Road Condition, Map/software update
Forward Collision Warning, Merging Assistance, Pre-Crash Sensing/Warning
V2X Communication – Used to Look Ahead as a Virtual Sensor – Next Big Thing for Safety and Accident Reduction
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure CommunicationLack of Road Infrastructure will make VMs reluctant to introduce V-X services
Risk Analysis
Lack of Equipped Infrastructure
Lack of Equipped Infrastructure
Poor Deployment/Business Planning
Poor Deployment/Business Planning
Inability to Market Effectively
Inability to Market Effectively
CompetitionCompetition Lack of FinanceLack of Finance
Lack of Political WillLack of Political Will
Legal/Regulatory IssuesLegal/Regulatory Issues
Low User AcceptanceLow User Acceptance
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure Communication Countries with Private Ownership of Road Infrastructure are More Likely to Invest in Cooperative Systems Infrastructure
Spain
U.K.
Germany
France
Ownership: Public
OBUs: 550,000
Ownership: Public+Private
OBUs:1.25 Million Ownership: Public
OBUs:100,000
Ownership: Public +Private
OBUs: 300,000
Norway
Ownership: Private +Private
OBUs:1.1 Million
Netherlands
Ownership: Private +Private
OBUs:50,000
Italy
Ownership: Public +Private
OBUs:5.4 Million
Switzerland
Austria
Ownership: Public
OBUs: 375,000
Ownership: No data
OBUs:80,000
Demark
Ownership: No data
OBUs: 150,000
Sweden
Ownership: Private +Private
OBUs:120,000
Source: Frost & Sullivan
OBU: On-Board Unit
Note: OBU Unit Shipments include cars, commercial vehicles & buses and tolling for only trucks in Germany and Austria Source: Frost & Sullivan
RoadUser
Regulator
ServiceProvider
Geographic Information
Provider
Parking Space
Provider
Traffic Information
Provider
(Mobile) devicesprovider
Devices Software provider
Service Platform Provider
RoadOperator
ConnectivityService
Provider
Government
PaymentProvider
SubsidyProvider
InsuranceProvider
RegulationRegulation
Consumption Consumption
Finance Finance
Technology support Technology support
Production Production
Vehicle to Vehicle and Vehicle to Infrastructure Communication Business Model – the complex business model involved makes deployment difficult for cooperative systems
Money Flow Source: Frost & Sullivan,Coopers,CVIS,Siemens Source: Frost & Sullivan,Coopers,CVIS,Siemens
Autonomous Driving: The Driverless CarVision yet to materialize, although the industry has moved much closer to realizing it
Source: BoschSource: Bosch
Collision avoidance + Automatic Emergency Braking
Collision avoidance + Automatic Emergency Braking
Autonomous Driving: The Driverless Car
Autonomous Driving: The Driverless CarSmart Driving
(enabled by V-V / V-X)
Smart Driving(enabled by V-V / V-X)
2010 2015 2020 20252010 2015 2020 2025Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Frost & Sullivan’s Global Urban Mobility Research
Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research ProgramProviding Continued Emphasis on Urban Mobility Developments
Year Planned Research Regional Scope
2012Strategic Analysis of the European and North American Urban Logistics Market in 2020 - Impact of the Mega Trends and Urbanisation Developments on Transport & Logistics Services, New Business Models, and Commercial Vehicles
Europe and North America
2012 Executive White Paper on Rise of Mobility Integrators and their Impact on Personal MobilityEurope and North
America
2012 An Update on the Opportunities in the North American Market for Carsharing Services North America
2012 An Update on the Opportunities in the European Market for Carsharing Services Europe
2012 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Industry – 2012Edition Global
2012 Strategic Market and Competitive Analysis of Parking Management Systems in Europe and North AmericaEurope and North
America
2012 Benchmarking of Mobility Strategies of Global OEMs Global
2012 Analysis of European Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Europe
2012 Strategic Analysis of Turkish Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Turkey
2012 Analysis of Latin American Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles Latin America
2012 Analysis of U.S. Market for Fleet and Leasing Vehicles United States of
America
2012 Future Mobility Trends and Analysis of Multi-Modal Mobility Strategies in Latin America Latin America
2012The Car Sharing Market European Voice of the Customer Study – Awareness, Interest, Features, Willingness to Pay, Segmentation (Tentative)
Europe
2012The Car Sharing Market U.S. Voice of the Customer Study – Awareness, Interest, Features, Willingness to Pay, Segmentation (Tentative)
United States of America
Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research ProgramExisting Research
Study Code
Planned Research Regional Scope
NA5E-18Strategic Analysis of Global Bus Rapid Transit Systems Market - Rapid Urbanization Stoking Demand for Cost-Effective and Energy Efficient Mass Transit Solutions
Global
NADC-18 Analysis of Chinese Electric Buses Market Chinese
P5F7-18 Strategic Analysis of Car Sharing Market in APAC Asia Pacific
P5F5-18 Mobility Trends in Select Indian Cities India
P5C4-18 Strategic Analysis of Micro cars market in Japan Japan
M79C-18Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Environment and Personal Mobility Needs and Vehicle Preferences of EU Generation “Y” - 2010 Voice of Consumer
Europe
N80C-18Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Environment and Personal Mobility Needs and Vehicle Preferences of U.S. Generation “Y” - 2010 Voice of Consumer
North America
M651-18Strategic Analysis of IT Mobility Platforms for European and North American Automotive Market - Billing and Smart Charging are Two Key Opportunity Areas in the EV Infrastructure Segment
Europe and North America
M7BB-18Strategic Analysis of Medium-Heavy Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Markets in China and India India, China
M783-18Strategic Analysis of Hybrid and Electric Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles in EMEA Region EMEA
N9FF-18Strategic Analysis of the North & South American Hybrid and Electric Medium-Heavy Truck and Bus Markets
North America, South America
M785-18Connectivity, App Stores and Cloud-based Delivery Platforms Future of Connected Infotainment and Telematics Market Global
Frost & Sullivan Global Urban Mobility Research Program Existing Research
Study Code Existing Research Regional Scope
M5A9-18Impact of Urbanization and Development of Megacities on Personal Mobility and Vehicle Technology Planning Global
M3FD-18 Executive Report on Insights and Solutions to Improve the Rural Mobility in the United Kingdom United Kingdom
N748-18 Analysis of the Market for Carsharing in North America (2009) North America
M4FA-18Sustainable and Innovative Personal Transport Solutions - Strategic Analysis of Carsharing Market in Europe (2009) Europe
P49C-18 Strategic Analysis of Car Sharing Market in Japan (2010) Japan
M3FC-18Executive Assessment of New Business Models and their ROI for Vehicle Manufacturers; Utilities and Infrastructure Service Providers in the Electric Vehicle Market Europe
M5B7-18 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Industry – 2010 Edition Global
M331-18 Executive Analysis of the Global Emergence of Personal Rapid Transit Systems Market Global
M4DD-18 Opportunities in Global High Speed Rail Market Global
M55D-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Microcars Market Europe
N901-18 Strategic Overview of the North American Micro Electric Vehicles Market North America
M77D-18 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Rail Industry Global
