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Future Cities AfricaFuture proofing to climate, environment and natural resource
challenges
Supporting inclusive, resilient low carbon development
Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA
March 24th 2015
@peterheadCBE
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__Climate, environment and natural resource challenges
Contents
Section 1
Section 2 __ Global -Local Action to support inclusive, resilient low carbon development
Section 3 __ From observatory to collaboratory
__ Innovation in financing of inclusive, resilient development
Section 4
Section 5 __ Demonstration regions and knowledge sharing
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1. Climate, environment, naturalresource challenges
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Our Shrinking Earthpopulation growing at 80m per year
19007.91
19505.15
19872.60
20052.02
20301.69
20501.44
YEARHectares of Land Per Capita
USA 9.5 UK 5.8 China 2.3 India 1.3
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ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development
Accra
Human development and ecological footprint
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ENTERING THE ECOLOGICAL AGE: Sustainable economic growth through a new paradigm of urban and rural development
Low to middle income countries
Transition from agricultural to ecological age
A new paradigm of urban and rural development with integrated urban-rural resource flows
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2. Global-local action to support inclusive, resilient, low carbon
development
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Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Promote the mainstreaming of disaster risk assessments into land-use policy development and implementation, including urban planning, land degradation assessments and informal and non-permanent housing, and the use of guidelines and follow-up tools informed by anticipated demographic and environmental changes
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Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Promote the mainstreaming of disaster risk assessment, mapping and management into rural development planning and management of mountains, rivers, coastal flood plain areas, drylands, wetlands and all other areas prone to droughts and flooding
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ACCRA CITY RESILIENCE 100 RESILIENT CITIES The capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems within a city to survive, adapt, and grow no matter what kinds of chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience
AGING INFRASTRUCTURE
DISEASE OUTBREAK
FLOODING (COASTAL AND RAINFALL)
INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURE
LACK OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING
POLLUTION OR ENVIRONMENTAL DEGREDATION SOCIAL INEQUITY
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ENERGY WATER
FOOD RAW MATERIALS
ENERGY
Resource Efficiency
WATER
By 2030 world needs 30% more water, 40% more energy & 50% more food
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1. A Regional Approach 2. Gather regional data, develop regional knowledge, embed integrated regional planning, build regional capacity and shared confidence to act3. Uniting economic, societal and environmental perspectives and shape interventions with a common/credible economic analyses
Approach to Sustainable Regions-The Greater Metropolitan Area
Greenhousegases
Greenhousegases
Greenhousegases
Solid waste
Degraded waters
Manufactured goods
HINTERLAND
Manufactured goods
Fuels andRaw materials
Water
Food
Housing
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3. From observatory to collaboratory
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Public Sector
Geographies
Private Sector
ResearchNGO
&Philanthropy
Silos
Sectors
TEST
The Decision to Create TEST
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Earth Simulator
Region Simulator
www.icesfoundation.orgwww.ecosequestrust.org
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OASIS
Global ICES ESA InsuranceCatastrophic Risk Modelling
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Licence Form
Region
Application nameOrganisation
Partnership agreement
Technical support service
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In the last twenty years, the world has
• Deployed a global, high-bandwidth network
• Created a population of over 1 billion Internet users
• And another population of some 6 billion mobile telephones
• Embedded some billions of sensors in our environment and infrastructure
• Invented globally-integrated business processes
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Citizen science and smart communities
Observatory Collaboratory
Citizen sensing
Earth observation
Awareness
Mapping
Design capability
Collaborative intelligence
Action for systems change
Investment and insurance
Adaptation & risk mitigation
Improved quality of life
Support for R&D
EU- JRCData Common Framework Agreements and InteroperabilityStandardsData repository
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Data brokering framework linked to Systems Model Engine
Observatory Collaboratory
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The system of community life
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Syn City City resources IIER Economics
EFI Forestry PROFILE Soil-agriculture
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Climate model data
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Earth observation and ground sensors for land use data
Soil and geologyPROFILE
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Government data eg demographics, employmentCrowd-sourced agent Data – mobility 4G 5G 6G
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Resource flows Sankey Diagrams
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Integrated Sustainable Infrastructure
transport
logistics and waste management
sewerage, potable and non-potable water energy
agriculture, landscape and urban design
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Economic Region Social, Env, Economic Targets
Data Processor Boundaries
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Economic Region Social, Env, Economic Targets Power
Water Treatment
IndustryMining
Building cluster
Railway
BIM
IIMProcessorBoundaries
Agriculture,grassland Forest
Data Processor Boundaries
Energy
Water
Mass goods&minerals
Agents
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Governance?
Managed by a social enterprise
Funded from the regional investment fund
Fund management by a community regional bank
Used free by public, private sectors, communities and NGO’s
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Regional collaborative intelligence
Urban Planning
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Standards for energy efficient higher quality buildings and training to design and build them
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Transformation of a city economy through replacing traffic with walking, cycling -Seoul
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Investing 1% GDP per year ($40m) in public transport rather than just building roadsincluding dedicated walking and cycling routes
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Education
On-line science, engineering, maths, economics, social science,
politics, humanities MOOCSline
Gaming for school children
Capacity building and training
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Ecology Health
Air Water Soil Quality
Human Healthwell-being nutrition, life-span, healthcare costs
Labour- skill, job availability, salary, productivity
Training & Education-skill and knowledge through learning and education
Human agentsand their well-being
Economy
Asset Value
Goods
High quality Inclusive resilient growth
“Green, circular, Knowledge economy”
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4. Innovation in financing ofinclusive, resilient development
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The Open-Source, Agent-based Urban-Rural
Resource and Economics Systems Platform Model
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OutputSuccessful
improvement in energy-water-food
security and quality of life
“Project portfolio”
Evidence-based ‘trusted’ independent model
Urban Development Fund for Projects- ‘Green Growth’ ‘Climate Adaptation’ ‘Social Impact Bonds’
Sources of capital-MNB’s Pension Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds
Return Investment
Assurance
“High quality inclusive resilient growth”
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Water management strategies including treatment of waste, capture and recycling, swales and alternative land and flood management. Also development of storage lakes and wetlands. All aimed to create new jobs and improve water quality and health and create leisure areas.
.
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• Energy efficiency retrofit including lighting, appliances, building services, industrial plant, water management to lower living costs and reduce fuel poverty
• New ecological and affordable low carbon, resource efficient housing and commercial mixed use developments which aim to improve urban and rural economy and human health and quality of life.
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Linking improved sanitation, water supply and energy needs. Integrated utility systems including renewable energy, anaerobic digestion of biomass (biogas and fertiliser), water treatment and water re-use. Biogas for cooking and energy generation.
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Urban farming development including rooftops
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• Forestry and rural biomass production for energy generation to reduce dependency on fossil fuel power. Also local biofuel production for new generations of farm and construction machinery. Overall demonstration of carbon sinks in natural ecosystems
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Waste management to reduce landfill and using all biomass from urban- rural-forestry for energy and composting. Up-cycling of waste for new products and the eco-fashion industry creating many new jobs, also linked to community-led development
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- Smart grid regional demonstration project linked to smart appliances, electric car and vehicle use and renewable energy installations of PV and wind.
Industrial symbiosis and
remanufacturing and re-use clusters in new industrial
parks with integrated utility systems.
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Introduction of consolidation centres and low carbon delivery methods
Consolidation
centres
Direct Deliveries to Tenants/ Businesses
City Consolidation
Centres
Drop off Station if
Tenant is out
Tenants and Businesses
Delivery vehicles
Inefficient deliveries
Efficient deliveries
Access control •Low Emission Zone,•Congestion Charge, etc
Electric Trucks
Electric Bikes
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5. Demonstration regionsand knowledge sharing
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Target Trust Demonstrator Network
CHINANDRCMOHURDAPEC 2 Eco Demo Regions
International Centre Chongqing University
UK
Dorset LEP
IFS
DFID
Cities Alliance Future Cities Africa Accra
African Centre for CitiesAfrican Urban Research Initiative
Mainland EuropeDenmark,
ICLEI GIZ Climate KIC-IFS
GlobalUNEPUN HabitatUNDP
UNSDSNUCCRN
AmericasDemo regionsRio de JaneiroUSA city
Mongolia 2 Demo regionsUlaanBaatarGobi RegionUN ADB FCO
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Knowledge sharing
Capacity building organisations, Universities, Research Institutes will play a key role in supporting this research, development and education opportunity locally and in EU and worldwide. Knowledge sharing in demonstration regions and across Africa can be facilitated by Africa Urban Research Initiative (ACC) and globally by UN University /Future Earth.
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Prototype demonstration - scope
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Future Cities Africa
World’s first demonstration of the functionality of the resilience.io prototype model through a sector application in Accra. The outputs highlight relevant resilient solutions and inform policy and/or planning decision-making, investment and links to SDGs.
Cities in Africa to become future proofed to climate, environment and natural resource challenges, so that they are inclusive and resilient, and have growing economies.
Output 3
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Questions..