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Arc$c Na$ons’ Transporta$on-‐Related Objec$ves
Bernard Funston President
NORTHERN CANADA CONSULTING (bfunston@arc$cconsul$ng.ca)
Warming of the North: Challenges & Opportuni$es for Arc$c Transporta$on, Supply Chain Management, & Economic Development
OTawa Conven$on Centre, March 02, 2015
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SeZng the Stage
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• Where is the Arc$c ? • Na$ons relevant to Arc$c Transporta$on • “Transporta$on-‐Related” • Objec$ves
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Where is the Arctic? Northern Na$on or Truncated Na$on?
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Source: The Northern Transporta$on Systems Assessment, 2011, Prolog Canada Inc., p.4
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The Arc$c Region
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Arc$c Na$ons & Non-‐Arc$c Na$ons
Arc$c States: • Canada • Denmark • Finland • Iceland • Norway • Russia • Sweden • United States
Key Non-‐Arc$c States: • China • France • Germany • India • Italy • Japan • Korea • Netherlands • Poland • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • EU
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Arc$c Transporta$on: Air, Land and Sea
• Foot • Kayak, Umiak • Dog sled, Ox and horse carts • Fresh water crae (powered and unpowered) • Marine crae (powered and unpowered) • Aircrae and air ships • All weather & Ice road vehicles • All terrain vehicles (skidoos, Nodwells, hovercrae, etc.) • Rail • Pipelines (oil, gas, water, solids, fibre op$cs) • Drones
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“Transporta$on-‐Related”: ISSA
• Informa$on • Skills • Systems • Assets – Humans – Vehicles, vessels, satellites – Infrastructure • Ports, airports, rail, roads, pipes • Land and sea-‐based Communica$ons
Source: Arc$c Policy Forum, 24 Feb. 2011: Arc$c Marine Shipping and the Environment, Summary of Proceedings
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The Vocabulary of Objec$ves
• Promote sustainable development • Ensure environmental integrity • Achieve economic development that benefits northern residents
• Maintain Arc$c coopera$on • Protect sovereignty and security
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Example:
Arc$c Marine Shipping Assessment (2009)
Objec$ve under 3 themes: – Enhancing Arc$c Marine Safety
– Protec$ng Arc$c People and the Environment
– Building Arc$c Marine Infrastructure
AMSA Status Report 2013 10
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Words and Ac$ons • 1969: USS Manha(an voyage – a fleet of Polar Class 8 Icebreakers will be built
• 1985: USCG Polar Sea voyage – a Polar Class 8 icebreaker will be built, and – A fleet of nuclear-‐powered subs will be purchased to patrol the Arc$c
– Arc$c Subsurface Surveillance System will be built • July 2007 Canada Announcement – 6 to 8 Polar Class 5 patrol ships will be built – A deep water Arc$c port will be built
• August 2007: Russian Mir plants North Pole flag – Canada says in 2008 polar class icebreaker, Diefenbaker, will be built
• 2014: Delivery dates postponed to 2018 or 2022 11
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"The complaint from the U.S. side, for as long as I can remember, is that Canada uses the Arc$c for domes$c poli$cal purposes — (and) doesn't follow through on commitments and capabili$es.”
– Christopher Sands, Hudson Ins$tute, 2014
[Reported by Jim Bronskill in Huffington Post online, 26 Aug 2014: “Pierre Trudeau's Arc8c Policy Sparked Fric8on With U.S.: CIA Report”]
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Storylines 13
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There was a $me when Transporta$on = Communica$on
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The Evolving Arc$c Story Lines: The Meta Narra$ves (A view from the Outside Looking In)
• Climate change is causing Arc$c ice to melt. • Consequently, new inter-‐ocean shipping channels will open. • Arc$c natural resources are becoming more accessible. • Major investments will be made to extract Arc$c wealth • Na$ons have conflic$ng claims to the sea beds. • The EU & China, and others, are asser$ng interests in the Arc$c. • The Arc$c has become a poten$al hot spot for future conflicts. • Scien$sts need more $me and money to study what is happening. • Tradi$onal ways of life for northern peoples are disappearing as fast as
the ice. • A legal and/or governance vacuum exists at the top of the world.
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Objec$ve SeZng
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What’s Missing From These Storylines? (Views from the Inside Looking Out, and Inside Looking In)
The aspira$ons of Arc$c residents regarding their
interests and their futures is oeen overlooked, or at best cons$tutes a sub-‐plot to the larger meta-‐narra$ves of
climate change, interna$onal trade, and so
on.
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Arc$c States’ Objec$ves
• 3 large federa$ons: – Canada – Russia – USA
• 4 unitary states: – Finland – Iceland – Norway – Sweden
• Denmark: – Greenland Government Act – Faroe Islands
Arc$c Circle Monument, Salekhard, Russia 18
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Jurisdic$on: a messy reality
• Federal • Provincial • Territorial • Community • Aboriginal
• ENGOs and NGO: the “social licence” morass • Interna$onal legal instruments & authori$es
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Jurisdic$onal Issues Pre-‐Devolu*on: • The Legislatures of Yukon and NWT had jurisdic$on throughout the 20th century to make laws in rela$on to:
“the closing up, varying, opening, establishing, building, management or control of any roads, streets, lanes or trails on public lands.”
Post-‐Devolu*on: • Yukon Act (2003): 18 (1) The Legislature may make laws in rela$on to the following classes of subjects in
respect of Yukon: (h) the incorpora$on of companies with territorial objects, other than railway, steamship, air transport, canal, telegraph or telephone companies, but including street railway companies
• Northwest Territories Act (2014): 18 (1) The Legislature may make laws in rela$on to the following subjects in
respect of the Northwest Territories: (h) the incorpora$on of companies with territorial objects, except railway — other than street railway —, steamship, air transport, telegraph and telephone companies;
Nunavut: • Nunavut Act (1993): 23(1) Subject to any other Act of Parliament, the Legislature may make laws in rela$on to
the following classes of subjects (q) the incorpora$on of companies with territorial objects, excluding railway, steamship, air transport, telegraph and telephone companies;
• 49(1) The following lands are and remain vested in Her Majesty in right of Canada
(e) all roads, streets, lanes and trails on public lands 20
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The Policy Environment Has Never been more Complex
• Engineering Factors • Environmental Factors • Social/Cultural Factors • Economic Factors • Poli$cal and Geopoli$cal
Factors • Legal & Regulatory Factors • Security Factors • Infrastructure Factors • Informa$on and Technical
Factors • “Social Licence” Factors
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Is the Arc$c a new global superstore: Cost v. Price
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Scenarios on the Future of
Arc*c Marine
Naviga*on in 2050
Two key factors are the most important and uncertain in shaping the
future of Arc$c marine
naviga$on in mid-‐century:
• Governance
• Resources &
Trade
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Moving Forward
• Expand exis$ng systems • Create new systems in un-‐serviced areas. “The situa$on is shieing from one in which the provision of transporta$on facili$es in advance of need was feasible to one in which the government may find itself scrambling to keep up with changing events.”
[Source: Curt Merrill, “A Look to the Future”, in North, vol XI, no 3, May – June, 1969 at 67 – 77] 24
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If you build it, will they come?
“During the first fiscal year following the gran$ng of statehood to Alaska, the major highway building agency was no longer federal but state, and with this the goals of road building necessarily reflect the desires of the majority of
voters who are urban dwelling car owners rather than those of federal bureaucrats with their beliefs fixed firmly in the
doctrine of roads as keys to development.”
– In 1958 there were 5196 miles of roads – By 1967 there were 4354 miles of roads – In 1968 there were 24 miles of new roads under construc$on – In 1967 the $60 million budget was being spent on maintaining, re-‐rou$ng, repairing and upgrading
Source: George Rogers, “Alaska” in North, vol XI, no 3, May – June, 1969 at 30 -‐ 37 25
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Future Demands & Infrastructure Needs
• Inbound ? • Outbound ? • Through ? • Within ?
Devolu$on might shie the emphasis in Yukon and NWT away from federal objec$ves, par$cularly for land-‐based transporta$on strategies, in coming years.
Federal objec$ves and ac$ons will con$nue to be cri$cally important for seZng the direc$on of Arc$c marine transporta$on-‐related systems
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Conclusions
• Governments haven’t, can’t and won’t do it alone.
• Northern transporta$on is no longer just an engineering challenge.
• Numerous factors will influence decision-‐making and determine investments and projects: jurisdic$onal, environmental, social, culture, poli$cal, technical, etc.
• Non-‐Arc$c interests and roles in Arc$c transporta$on need to be thoroughly considered.
• The Arc$c must now be seen as a $ghtly coupled part of
global economic, poli$cal and natural systems. 27
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Déjà Vu All Over Again?
“ Today the barriers of frozen distances are crossed in a dinner-‐hour flight. The North Pole, ul$mate symbol of isola$on is accessible from above, by air, from below, by nuclear submarine, and across land and ice fields by skidoo. This is the age when all is possible; the age when the North yields its secrets and wealth to the efforts and knowledge of men.”
– John A. MacDonald, Deputy Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development, 1969
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Thank You
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