FTTH Forecast for EUROPE
Europe Broadband status
FTTH Council Europe Conference – March 12-14th, 2019 - Amsterdam
Roland Montagne
Principal Analyst
+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26
www.idate.org
Market forecast by 2020 and 2025
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Methodology
ACTIONS
Results
▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 17th edition
▪ Provide a forecast overview of FTTH/B European markets by 2020 and 2025
Bottom-up
methodologyScope
• Individual analysis of 15 countries
based on Top 15 countries by Homes
passed
• Study of EU28 and EU39 (1)
countries
• Desk research
• Direct contacts with leading players
and IDATE partners within countries
• Information exchange with FTTH
Council Europe members
• Both quantitative and qualitative data
• Forecasts for years 2020 and 2025
(1) EU39 = EU28 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries + Andorra, Iceland,
Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey
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• Strategic plans from telecom players
towards high-speed broadband
enhancement
• Willingness to provide public funds
• Municipality/utility players can
accelerate fibre development in
remote areas, where private operators
don’t have any incentives to deploy
• Impact of cable operators switching
to FTTH/B to gain market advantages
• Impact of mobile broadband
enhancement
• Green-field housing and systematic
deployment of FTTH in any new build
housing
Supply criteria
• Impact of infrastructure costs
• Impact of copper-based DSL
improvements with new emerging
variants, such as G.Fast.
• Impact of cable-based networks with
DOCSIS 3.1
• Regulatory changes at European
and national level to create a common
commitment to FTTH
• Impact of macroeconomic
environment and economical trends
Others
• Broadband services take-up since
average speeds continue to rise for
households
• Data consumption keeps growing
due to an intensive use of video
content, high-definition streaming
which demand high bandwidth
capacity
• People in rural areas still not covered
by high-speed connections would like
to be connected to NGN
Demand criteria
Forecast study – Factors taken into account
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Indicators affecting the FTTH adoption
Positive criteria
Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex.
Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1Governments have been revising their Digital Infrastructure strategy to focus on Fibre
and 5G leading to higher availability of public funds dedicated to enhancing fibre-
based networks2
Progressive switch-off for copper-based infrastructure and move towards high-speed
fibre3Data demands and video content growth leading to higher bandwidth and lower
latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)4
Both incumbents and alternative ISPs shifting their core business towards FTTH5Municipalities/Utilities to expand fibre networks in remote areas where not always
economically viable for private players6Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G
convergence7
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Indicators affecting the FTTH adoption
Negative impacts
Copper-based DSL improvements with new emerging variants could delay FTTH
enhancement1
Mobile 5G broadband technology substituting FTTH in non economically viable areas 2Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies (however costs are
following a downward trend YoY)3
Non-feasible business model for isolated areas4Some initiatives are facing administrative barriers that are delaying fibre expansion in
areas not yet covered.5
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Forecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries
Top 15 countries
by Homes passed
as at Sept. 2018
EU39 countries
covered in FTTH
Panorama
Bulgaria
France
Germany
Italy
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
Ukraine
UK
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European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)
FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39
6 812
1520
2430
3947
56
68
82
97
109
1620
3136
4552
60
71
83
97
114
132
152
168
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total EU28 Total EU39
30 3651 57
6773
8192
104115
130144
155166
6477
108
126140
149160
174189
203
220
237250
263
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total EU28 Total EU39
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European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)
FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU28 / EU39
20.3% 21.3%24.1%
26.4%
30.2%33.4%
37.0%
42.0%45.2%
49.0%
52.7%
57.1%
62.5%65.6%
25.7% 26.2%28.5% 28.9%
32.0%34.8%
37.4%40.7%
44.2%
48.0%51.8%
55.9%
60.6%63.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs / HP EU28 Subs / HP EU39
2019 should be a
turning point
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Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2020 & 2025
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2025 Forecasts
EU28 : ~166m FTTH H.P.
EU39 : ~263m FTTH H.P.
% Evolution
2018 / 2020
+2%
+33%
+0.5%
+11%
+81%
+27%
+184%
+12%
+62%
+5%
+44%
+4%
+40%
+12%
+3%
2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts% Evolution
2018 / 2025
+6%
+858%
+81%
+230%
+551%
+2%
+86%
+24%
+169%
+29%
+112%
+9%
+11%
+35%
+6%
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Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2025
European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)
2020 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2025 Forecasts
EU28 : ~109m FTTH Subs.
EU39 : ~168m FTTH Subs.% Evolution
2018 / 2020
+20%
2025 Forecasts
+33%
+63%
+31%
+47%
+90%
+43%
+171%
+50%
+67%
+74%
+118%
+306%
+48%
+22%
% Evolution
2018 / 2025
+78%
+5567%
+233%
+92%
+1006%
+760%
+190%
+237%
+82%
+261%
+527%
+170%
+96%
+202%
+73%
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Top 15 Countries by Household penetration
European ranking in terms of Household penetration
Subscriptions / Households (in %)
24.8%
28.2%
31.6%
33.2%
35.5%
42.5%
53.0%
61.2%
62.6%
69.9%
70.3%
71.7%
81.0%
83.2%
90.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Germany
Turkey
Poland
Italy
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Russia
France
Netherlands
Romania
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Penetration forecast
in 2025
EU28 : 46.2%
EU39 : 44.7%
Penetration forecast
in 2020
EU28 : 17.3%
EU39 : 20.4%
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts
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FTTH / FTTB architecture
Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025
FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
57.8%
42.2%
FTTH FTTB
2020 Forecasts
55.6%
44.4%
FTTH FTTB
FTTH/B at Sept. 2018
63.8%
36.2%
FTTH FTTB
2025 Forecasts
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
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FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
2020 ForecastsPON/Ethernet ratio at
Sept. 2018
2025 Forecasts
48.4%51.6%
PON Ethernet
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
PON / Ethernet
PON solutions will tend to be predominant in the coming years
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FTTH Architecture & Technology trends
2020 ForecastsMDU / SDU ratio at
Sept. 2018
72.1%
27.9%
MDU SDU
70.6%
29.4%
MDU SDU
67.2%
32.8%
MDU SDU
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE
MDU / SDU ratio
Evolution towards the delivery of individualized fibre services by 2025
2025 Forecasts
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Key conclusions
▪ Public incentives towards fibre-based technologies will accelerate FTTH growth throughout Europe
▪ Some major private players will be migrating from copper-based and cable-based architectures to full-fibre
solutions in the coming years (e.g. BT in UK / Deutsche Telekom in Germany). Certainly, these substantial
investments will be a key enabler of growth.
▪ Delayed responses by incumbents have led to increased investment in alternative FTTH operators,
triggering accelerated network builds by the incumbent (UK, Italy)
▪ More agreements to deploy FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and local
authorities are evolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using the
same infrastructure (telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)
▪ Based on recent announcements, 5G will be a key factor for the promotion of fibre deployments and
therefore, it will boost investments from public and private players.
▪ Evolution from previous years have showed that cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to
diversify its core technologies towards fibre. Certainly, many of these players have implemented full fibre
solutions and it can be appreciated that FTTH services are now part of its service portfolio.
1GROWTH
2BUSINESS
EVOLUTION
3TECHNO-
SYMBIOSIS
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Appendix
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 17Enlighten your digital future!
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council
EUROPE
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
-
1
2
3
4
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
Bulgaria (95% Coverage / 34% Take-up / 32% Homes
connected)
France (45% Coverage / 43% Take-up / 19% Homes
connected)
5.77.4
9.311.3
13.515.5
17.319.013.3
15.717.7
19.3 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.1
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
Germany (7% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 2% Homes
connected)Italy (24% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 4% Homes
connected)
0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8
3.8
6.0
8.5
10.5
3.1 3.6 4.35.2
9.0
14.0
17.020.0
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
1.1 1.92.9
4.15.4
6.78.1
9.2
6.3
9.211.4
13.615.7
17.619.3
20.8
-
5
10
15
20
25
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs /
FTTHB HP
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 18Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council
EUROPE
Kazakhstan (44% Coverage / 34% Take-up / 15% Homes
Connected)
Netherlands (39% Coverage / 51% Take-up / 20% Homes
Connected)
Poland (28% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 5% Homes
connected)
Portugal (99% Coverage / 37% Take-up / 37% Homes
connected)
1.11.5
1.92.3
2.62.9 3.1 3.33.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3
-
1
2
3
4
5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
1.6
2.33.0
3.84.5
5.05.4
5.7
3.1
3.84.4
5.05.5
6.06.3 6.5
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
0.7 1.11.6
2.12.6
3.23.9
4.64.0
5.2
6.57.5
8.49.2
10.010.8
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
1.62.0
2.6
3.33.6
3.9 4.1 4.2
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6
-
1
2
3
4
5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs /
FTTHB HP
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 19Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council
EUROPE
Romania (73% Coverage / 53% Take-up / 38% Homes
Connected)
Russia (84% Coverage / 42% Take-up / 35% Homes
Connected)
Spain (98% Coverage / 45% Take-up / 44% Homes
Connected)
Sweden (91% Coverage / 48% Take-up / 44% Homes
Connected)
3.33.8
4.34.7
5.15.4
5.76.06.3
6.77.0
7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
20.2 22.2 24.3 26.5 28.8 31.1 33.536.0
47.9 48.6 49.0 49.4 49.7 50.0 50.3 50.5
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
7.9
9.510.5
11.512.5
13.614.4
15.2
17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
2.1
2.5
3.0
3.53.7
3.9 4.0 4.14.4
4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8
2
3
4
5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs /
FTTHB HP
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)
© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 20Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council
EUROPE
Turkey (36% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 11% Homes
Connected)
Ukraine (59% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 10% Homes
Connected)
United Kingdom (10% Coverage / 13% Take-up / 1.3%
Homes Connected)
2.6 3.1 3.8 4.55.3 6.0 6.7
7.58.3
9.510.5
11.512.5
13.514.4
15.4
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
1.9 2.2 2.83.5
4.24.9
5.66.3
10.811.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passed
0.4 0.8 1.53.2
6.0
11.0
17.0
21.0
2.84.5
8.0
12.0
17.0
21.024.0
27.0
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Subs Homes passedTake-up rate = FTTHB Subs /
FTTHB HP
Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)