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Freight Impacts of IMO 2020
What can we expect on the first of January?
Eden Roc Hotel, Miami, September 2019
Sam Eckett
Associate Editor, Freight Markets
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S&P Global Platts Shipping
• Global commodity benchmark provider
• Hundreds of daily assessments, real time news, analysis, unique reports, podcasts, videos
• Hands-on expertise in freight markets through daily engagement with a wide variety of sources, including brokers, charterers, shipowners, traders, agents etc.
• Robust methodology to ensure transparency and integrity in all assessments
2
Consists of a global team, working from London, Singapore and Houston
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Daily Publications
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We publish three daily reports: Dirty Tankerwire, Clean Tankerwire and Dry Freight Wire with a recent addition of Platts Container Rates (PCR) and Platts Bunker Charges (PBC)
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Agenda
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IMO 2020 Compliance Strategies1
2
3
4
Fuel prices: Supply & Demand
Shipping in 2020 and beyond
Case Study: Indonesia
What am I going to talk about today?
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“From 1 January 2020, the limit for sulphur in fuel oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas will be reduced to 0.50%”
International Maritime Organization
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How can you comply with IMO 2020?
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• LNG, Electric, Wind Power
• Nuclear?
• New build
• Lower CO2 emissions
• Very high capital expenditure
• Long lead times
• Lower emissions
• Limited operational difficulty
• Guaranteed compliance
• Low capital expenditure
• Fuel costs more
• Can increase maintenance costs
• Cleaning costs
• Exhaust Gas Cleaning System
• Can continue burning HSFO
• Lower fuel costs
• HSFO widely available
• High capital expenditure
• Complicated to install
• Risk of banning, non-compliance
• Sludge handling and disposal
• Failure risk
You can burn another fuel entirelyYou can burn 0.5% LSFO or MGO You can install a “scrubber”
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Option 1: Burn Low Sulphur Fuel Oil or Marine Gas Oil
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“KPC and Ardmore Shipping will be using low sulphur fuels in their ships from next month, said sources involved in the task. Ardmore has 19 MR tankers.”
S&P Global Platts, September 23, 2019
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Bunker Wire 0.5% Assessments
APAC/Middle East
Singapore
Fujairah
Japan
South Korea
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Zhoushan
Europe
Algeciras
Durban
Gibraltar
Malta
Piraeus
Rotterdam
Americas
Houston
New York
Los Angeles
Balboa
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Some refiners already have 0.5% available
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Source: S&P Global Platts
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Wide flat price spread remains on the European forward curve
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Source: S&P Global Platts
($/mt)
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022
3.5% FOB Rdam barges
1% FOB NW Europeancargoes
0.5% Rotterdam MarineFuel
ICE LSGO futures
0.1% FOB ARA Barge
$/mt
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Global 0.5% marine fuel assessments
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Source: S&P Global Platts
350
400
450
500
550
Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019
Platts Marine Fuel 0.5% FOB Rdam Barge
Platts Marine Fuel 0.5% FOB Spore Cargo
Platts Marine Fuel 0.5% FOB Fujairah Cargo
0.5% Marine Fuel Houston
$/mt
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Option 2: Fit a scrubber
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A common* open-loop scrubber design
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Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics & Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems Association
• *70% of all scrubber
installed or on order
are open-loop
• Open-loop banned
in Singapore, China,
Fujairah
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Scrubber uptake
• Pace of scrubber additions has increased
• We expect 2,400 ships to have scrubbers
installed on January 1, 2020.
• Total consumption: 600 MB/day HSFO
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Source: Platts Analytics: “Making Waves Supplement IV: August”
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Scrubber uptake
• Scrubbers increase to over 3,500 installations
by December 2020
• Over 4,500 by December 2021
• Including 54 of 79 VLCCs currently on order
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Source: Platts Analytics: “Making Waves Supplement IV: August”
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Fuel oil’s new buyers – power generation demand
Power generation plants expected to come online
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Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
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Platts European marine fuel assessments in 2019 ($/mt)
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Source: S&P Global Platts
($/mt)
240
340
440
540
640
Jan-2019 Feb-2019 Mar-2019 Apr-2019 May-2019 Jun-2019 Jul-2019 Aug-2019
3.5% FOB Rdam barge
0.5% FOB Rdam marine fuel
0.1% Gasoil FOB ARA barge
Marine Gasoil 0.1% FOB ARA barge
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Scrubber reliability
• “Ferry operator DFDS has just celebrated 10 years of continued scrubber operation on FicariaSeaways…”
• “During this period the scrubber exceeded 55,000 working hours.
• For the 12 months ending June 30, 2019, results show a downtime of 0.0012%”
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Scrubbers were not invented in 2019
Source: Lloyd’s List, VesselFinder, Clean Shipping Alliance
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Worst Case Scenario: Failure
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Option 3: Build new ships
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ESL Shipping’s Viikki & Haaga: LNG-powered Handysizes
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Source: ESL Shipping
• Sinotrans & CSC JinlingShipyard 2018
• 25,600 dwt
• LNG-powered
• 57% reduction in CO2
• 92% reduction in SO2
• 25% for Nox
• Price: ~$30m each
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The Oshima Ultramax 2030
• LNG Fuel
• Battery, with shaft generator
• Solar panels
• Hard sail
• Claims to have a 50% better EEDI (Energy Efficiency Design Index) than comparable vessels
• Price: not listed
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Case Study: Indonesia
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“Indonesia needs more time to comply with global rules requiring low-sulphur marine fuels… The national interest should be put forward before the implementation.”
Ministry of Transportation (Indonesia), July 2019
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“Indonesia will enforce the 0.5% sulphur cap regulations from January 1 2020 on all Indonesian-flagged vessels both for domestic and foreign shipping.”
Ministry of Transportation (Indonesia), August 2019
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Indonesia
• Largest importer of wheat in the world in 2019
• Imports from Australia, Argentina, and the Black Sea
• Australian wheat will have difficulties retaining competitiveness over Black Sea above the $25/mt FOB price spread
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FOB price spreads: Russian Wheat 12.5% vs APW Wheat
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$20-30/mt spread required for Black Sea - Indonesia arb to work
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
$/m
t
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Yuzhny to Cigading, 50,000 mt grains time charter equivalent
• ($/day)
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Source: Platts
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
01/07/2019 08/07/2019 15/07/2019 22/07/2019 29/07/2019 05/08/2019 12/08/2019 19/08/2019 26/08/2019 02/09/2019 09/09/2019 16/09/2019
DBF Grains Yuzhny Ukraine-Cigading Indonesia 50kt $/day DOP Can Close
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Marine Gasoil vs IFO 380 vs LSFO 0.5%
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Source: Platts
$/mt
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
01/07/2019 08/07/2019 15/07/2019 22/07/2019 29/07/2019 05/08/2019 12/08/2019 19/08/2019 26/08/2019 02/09/2019 09/09/2019 16/09/2019
Istanbul/Malta marine fuel prices since July 1
Marine Gasoil 0.1% Dlvd Istanbul Bunker FO 380 CST 3.5% Dlvd Istanbul Marine Fuel 0.5% Bunker Dlvd Malta
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Yuzhny to Cigading, 50,000 mt grains freight
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Source: Platts
25
35
45
55
65
75
01/07/2019 08/07/2019 15/07/2019 22/07/2019 29/07/2019 05/08/2019 12/08/2019 19/08/2019 26/08/2019 02/09/2019 09/09/2019 16/09/2019
Voyage rates ($/mt) using different fuels
IFO 380 MGO LSFO
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How will IMO 2020 impact Black Sea grains?
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Freight will rise significantly, favouring shorthaul voyages
Increase in ‘locally-sourced’ grains for SE Asia market, such as APW wheat
Disruption: Russia and Ukraine increasing cultivated area – means more grains for export: lower FOB values can offset the freight increase
Emerging trade flow from Argentina could be cut short, but given their dominance on wheat supply, Russia and Ukraine here to stay
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Contact & Further Reading
33
Sam EckettAssociate Editor, Freight MarketsAtlantic Dry Bulk (Supramax & Handysize)
Email: [email protected]
Skype: plattsdrybulkhandy
http://plts.co/xzfm30pB3BJ http://plts.co/3ctM30pB3EW