Framework for Risk Analysis in Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems Multimedia Environmental Systems
Version 2 (FRAMES-2)Version 2 (FRAMES-2)
Framework for Risk Analysis in Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems Multimedia Environmental Systems
Version 2 (FRAMES-2)Version 2 (FRAMES-2)
WorkshopU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Rockville, Maryland
Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryNovember 15-17, 2005
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Contributing MembersContributing MembersContributing MembersContributing Members
DoDDoDERDCERDC
NRCNRCResearchResearch
Facilitatingcooperation,
coordination, and exchangeof technical information,related to the multimedia
environment
EPAORD
DOEEM
PNNLDOEDOE
EPAORIA
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Contact Information Name Address Phone
Numbers Email
Points of Contact
Gene Whelan MSIN K9-36
3120 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 372-6098 fax: (509) 372-6089 [email protected]
Karl Castleton MSIN K6-04 P.O. Box 999
Richland, WA 99352 ph: (970) 248-1837 fax: (970) 248-1324 [email protected]
Gariann Gelston MSIN K7-97
3320 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 372-4480 fax: (509) 375-5921 [email protected]
Developers
Karl Castleton MSIN K6-04 P.O. Box 999
Richland, WA 99352 ph: (970) 248-1837 fax: (970) 248-1324 [email protected]
Boonie Hoopes MSIN K6-04
3180 George Wash. Way Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 372-6550 fax: (509) 372-4995 [email protected]
Mitch Pelton MSIN K6-04
3180 George Wash. Way Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 372-6551 fax: (509) 372-4995 [email protected]
Kevin Dorow MSIN K7-22
3300 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 375-2517 fax: (509) 375-3992 [email protected]
Quality Assurance/Technical Support
Gariann Gelston MSIN K7-97
3320 Q Avenue Richland, WA 99352
ph: (509) 372-4480 fax: (509) 375-5921 [email protected]
Randal Taira Battelle Seattle Res. Ctr.
4500 Sand Point Way NE, Suite 100 Seattle, WA 98105-3556
ph: (206) 528-3258 fax: (206) 528-3556 [email protected]
Sponsors
Dr. Ralph E. Cady
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
Mail Stop T-9F31 Washington, DC 20555
ph: (301) 415-6249 [email protected]
Mr. Gerald Laniak
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development
National Exposure Research Lab Ecosystems Research Division
960 College Station Road Athens,GA 30605
ph: (706) 355-8316 [email protected]
Dr. Mark Dortch
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development
Center ATTN: CEERD-EP-W 3909 Halls Ferry Road Vicksburg, MS 39180
ph: (601) 634-3517 [email protected]
Ms. Kathryn Snead
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Indoor Air and Radiation Ariel Rios Building
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20460
ph: (202) 343-9228 [email protected]
Mr. Paul Beam
U. S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management
Office of Cleanup Technologies EM-21
19901 Germantown Road Germantown, MD 20874
ph: (301) 903-8133 [email protected]
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1990 1994 1996 199819921982 1984 1986 1988 200420022000 Initial idea for RAPS
Initial proposal of RAPS to DOE Initial proposal of MEPAS to DOE
Version 1.0 of MEPAS Initial idea for RAAS
Version 2.0 of MEPAS with DOS user interface
----------------------------- DOE’s Environmental Survey using MEPAS
------------- MEPAS used to conduct risk-based characterization on SST analytes
Version 3.0 of MEPAS
Version 4.0 of MEPAS
Version 4.1 of MEPAS
Initial idea for FRAMES
Version 1.0 of FRAMES
Version 1.1 of FRAMES
Initial idea for Modular Risk Analysis (MRA) approach
----- Use of MEPAS & MRA approach on HRA-EIS
------------- MEPAS used DOE’s PEIS
----- MEPAS used DOE’s BEMR
Initial funds from EPA for 3MRA-HWIR
----------- Use of MEPAS & MRA on WIPP-SEIS II
------- Pantex RA uses FRAMES 1.0
Merged SystemUnified Life Cycle Analysis
Time Line of Multimedia Modeling Developments at PNNL
FRAMES: $8M/10 yrsMultimedia Modeling: $23M/23 yrs
FRAMES-2.0
EPA-ORD3MRA-2.0
Site Specific
FRAMES Development History1995 - 2005
FRAMES-1.0
EPA-ORD/OSWFRAMES-3MRA-1.0
(National Assessment)
EPA-ORDFRAMES-3MRA-1.x
(UA/SA)
FRAMES-1.1 to 1.7
FRAMES-3MRA
DoD-ERDCARAMS
EPA-ORIA
SuperMUSE
Framework Independent Component
NRC
DoD-ERDCARAMS-2.0
EPA-ORIA
IWRMS(King County)
SuperMUSE
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Purpose: Merged the best attributes of 3MRA, ARAMS, GENII, and FRAMES-V1
Objective: Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks. Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”
Constraints: Follow requirements outlined at the NRC-hosted 2000 workshop, documented in the Proceedings of the Environmental Software Systems Compatibility and Linkage Workshophttp://www.ISCMEM.org
Purpose: Merged the best attributes of 3MRA, ARAMS, GENII, and FRAMES-V1
Objective: Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks. Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”
Constraints: Follow requirements outlined at the NRC-hosted 2000 workshop, documented in the Proceedings of the Environmental Software Systems Compatibility and Linkage Workshophttp://www.ISCMEM.org
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FRAMES-2FRAMES-2FRAMES-2FRAMES-2
Middleware Middleware Collaboration and Communication
Allows for the seamless transfer of data betweendisparate models, databases, and modeling systems.
User gets to pick models and databases of choice.
Intuitive system that can be modified and updated by users.
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1
2
3
Simple
Medium
Complex
Model Type 1(e.g., Source Model)
3
1
2
Model Type 2(e.g., Aquifer)
FRAMES
= Data processor
= Modules Model Type 3(e.g., Risk Model)
3 2 1
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FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0FRAMES-2.0
FRAMES-1.x – Site-Specific analyses
3MRA – National, Complex-wide analyses
FRAMES-2.x – FRAMES-2, using the best features of FRAMES-1 and 3MRA Build Site-Specific Assessments, then role results up
into Complex-Wide Analyses
Many non-Environmental Uses
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Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2Design Goals of FRAMES-2
Design a software system that allows the non-parochial communication between disparate models, databases, and frameworks.Design a functionally easy system which can be modified and updated by “users.”Provide a platform that allows “objects” to ACCESS information generated/produced by other “objects.”Keep it simple, not simplistic Make it understandable Standardize and develop consistent and repeatable
protocolsReproducibility means CredibilityVisualize the problem -- PICTURESVisualize the results -- PICTURESProvide Sensitivity/Uncertainty Capabilities
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Static Telephone Book Dynamic Telephone Books
Design AspectsBackward CompatibilityDesign Aspects
Backward Compatibility
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Conceptual Site Modeland
Drag & Drop Feature
TCE Risk vs. Probability of Exceedence Auto-Correlated Release
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.001.05
0.0E+00 2.0E-08 4.0E-08 6.0E-08 8.0E-08 1.0E-07 1.2E-07 1.4E-07
Risk
Pro
ba
bil
ity
of
Ex
ce
ed
en
ce
Distance = 100 m
Distance = 225 m
Visualization of S/U Output Results
Probability of water concentration peak (g/mL) for Benzene above 4.6e-08
SrcInvB = Initial Source Inventory (grams), BenzeneSatDistL = Travel distance well (cm) SrcInvB = Initial Source Inventory (grams), BenzeneSatDistL = Travel distance well (cm)
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
1.00e+052.00e+053.00e+054.00e+055.00e+056.00e+057.00e+058.00e+059.00e+051.00e+06SrcInvB
0.00e+002.00e+04
4.00e+046.00e+04
8.00e+041.00e+05
1.20e+051.40e+05
SatDistL
0.00e+00
2.00e+01
4.00e+01
6.00e+01
8.00e+01
1.00e+02
Prob
abilit
y of
Exce
eden
ce (%
)
Inventory (g)Distance fro
m Source (cm)
Probability of a Peak Benzene Concentration BeingAbove the Acceptable Limit of 4.6E-02 mg/L
Visualization of S/U Output ResultsProbability of
Exceedence (%)
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Automation and ReproducibilityAutomation and Reproducibility(Some Quick Examples)(Some Quick Examples)
Automation and ReproducibilityAutomation and Reproducibility(Some Quick Examples)(Some Quick Examples)
RAGS Generation as a Quick Example
Automated Testing
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FRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key ConceptsFRAMES-2 Key Concepts
Identify and agree upon a specific “Contract” as to how data/information are packaged and passed (DIC)
Identify and agree upon how data are measured and what they mean (i.e., metadata) (DIC Editor and [(Units) Conversion Editor]
Define what your model/DB is (Domain editor)
Define the direct contextual relationship of your model/DB to other components in the system [Module (DES) Editor and Simulation Editor]
Define very clear and strict data/information protocols
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Seamless and Transparent Communication Through ARAMS/FRAMES for Linking Disparate Objects
Seamless and Transparent Communication Through ARAMS/FRAMES for Linking Disparate Objects
Model 2
Model 1
ModelOutput
Model Output
Model Input
Database Data
Database Data
User-SpecifiedInput
FRAMES-2 infrastructure is
interested in the I/O, not the Objects
(e.g., models, DBs)
User-SpecifiedInput
Model wrapping in FRAMES-2 requires adding dictionary and description files, and model switches Forward→
FRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 CommunicationFRAMES-2 Communication
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ChemAquiferConcDissolved chemical concentrationsVersion: 2Privilege: System Boundary
Name Description Unit Measure Type Range S D U K Prep Indices
ConcThe dissolve-phase concentration associated with water
mg/L Mass/Volume FLOAT 0 - 1E+30 N 3 Y NAquiferPoints.Feature ChemList.CASID TimePts
TimePts Concentration time point yr Time FLOAT 0 - 1E+08 Y 3 N NAquiferPoints.Feature ChemList.CASID
Legend
Column Name
Meaning
S Self-IndexedD Dimensional SizeU Uncertainty can apply (Stochastic)K Is the variable a key to others
Standard DICtionary Describing Standard DICtionary Describing Concentration as a Function Concentration as a Function
of Time and Locationof Time and Location
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Defining Connection SchemesDefining Connection Schemes
Model 1ProduceDIC 6
ConsumeDIC 1, 2, 3
Scheme # Connection Scheme
1
Model 1ProduceDIC 3, 5
ConsumeDIC 4, 6
Model 1Produce
DIC 1, 2, 6
ConsumeDIC 1, 3, 4, 5
2
3
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Applicable Models
Plug & Play Feature
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Plug & Play Feature
Non-applicable Models
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Model Developer Database Owner User (Analyst)
• Build or Import DICs• Define Units• Build/Import Modules• Set up Domain• Define Connection Schemes
Tools:• (Units) Conversion Editor• DICtionary Editor• Domain Editor• Module (DES) Editor• Dataset Editor
• Map DB Schema• Develop DB Extraction Plans
Tools:• Data Owner Tool• Data Extraction Tool
• Select Domain• Select Icons• Connect Icons• Select Models & Databases• Run Extraction Plans
Tools:• Simulation Editor • Data Client Editor (GMUI)• Dataset Editor
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FRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 EditorsFRAMES-2 Editors
DICtionary Editor – Allows the user to add new or edit existing DICtionaries.(Units) Conversion Editor – Allows the user to add additional or edit existing unit conversions supported by the system.Module (DES) Editor – Allows the user to input and edit the DEScription (DES) DICtionary, which contains information about the model (e.g., icon Class, which Boundary Condition and Input DICs are consumed and which Boundary Condition DICs are produced, who to contact for more information, etc.).Domain Editor – Allows the user to define where the model fits in the system (e.g., icon type, Domain, Group, and Subgroup, etc., but not Class).Simulation Editor – Allows the user to edit the Conceptual Site Model (CSM) work space, containing the Drag & Drop functionality of constructing a CSM and linking modules together. This editor is the FRAMES CSM interface.
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Current FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 ActivitiesCurrent FRAMES-2 Activities
Groundwater Modeling System (NRC Research)
Adaptive Risk Assessment Modeling System (DoD-ERDC)
Multi-media, Multi-pathway, Multi-Exposure Risk Assessment (3MRA) Methodology (EPA-ORD)
SuperMUSE Parallel Processing System (EPA-ORD)
Rapid Risk Assessment (Emergency Preparedness and Response) (PNNL-DOE)
Biologically Based Modeling (PNNL-DOE)
Universal Linkage to Databases (PNNL-DOE)
Data Access Network (DOE-Hanford)
Integrated Water Resource Modeling System (IWRMS)
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SummarySummarySummarySummary
Design, based on March 2000 Workshop RequirementsMiddleware, designed for seamless transfer of data between Disparate Models Disparate Databases Disparate Modeling Systems (Frameworks)
Intuitive system, which can be modified and updated by “users.”Not Necessarily Environmental CentricMultimedia Modeling: $23M ($8M for FRAMES)