Download - Four dystopias for the future of education
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Dystopias and how to avoid them
Penn StateWorld Campus
-September
2014
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Part 2: scenariosStories about futures Event and response Creativity
Roles and times Emergent practices
and patterns
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Dystopia ahead
What’s a dystopia?
Start with utopia: Thomas More, 1516 (eu- + u-)
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Very grim worlds
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Very grim worlds
Extrapolations of current trends
Criticisms of the present (i.e., 1948)
Total systems
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Very grim worlds
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Even grimmer worlds
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Even grimmer worlds Never a happy
ending Rebellions are
quashed
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Scenarios to consider
1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts
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1. Silos stand tall
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Closed information architecture
ContentTeaching
ResearchSource software
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Features
Global conversations fragment
Filter bubbles for all
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On campus Information prices high Faculty trained to stacks + separation
IT “ “ “ Academic content scarce in the non-OECD world
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On campus
Tech support by silo Powerful LMS Library as licensing agent, inter-silo guide
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Some good things
Content industries preserved
High quality content “ “ technologies Less malware
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Internet has always been a series of walled gardens
The Web is commercial They identified with stacks by age 15
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II: Cyberpunk world
Tech saturated Chaotic
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Cyberpunk world Hyperglobalized Networked, distributed technology is ubiquitous
Surveillance is the norm, both corporate and governmental
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Cyberpunk world States destabilized Companies have increased regulatory capture + policy influence
Subversion by technology Continuous future shock
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Cyberpunk world Labor: chaotic, disorganized, sometimes approaching forced
Unemployment high, due to…
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On campus
Privatized tuition “ campus support Business + STEM programs + Homeland Security big
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On campus
Micropayments for campus transactions
Business metrics Greater military presence
Information literacy vital
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Identified with company by age 15
½ of social network is not same nation
Heavy tech training by middle school
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III: Gilded Age 2.0
New age of inequality, led by the 1% and their 1%
Stability
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Gilded Age 2.0
Alfreds
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Gilded Age 2.0 Consumption made conspicuous by digital media
Labor in service, as Alfreds
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Automation widespread
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Gilded Age 2.0
Gerontocracy in practical politics
Underemployed pacified by funding, media
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Gilded Age campus Faculty 99% adjunct (neofeudal campus)
Focus on rich students Student debt > mortgages
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Gilded Age campus
F2f for the 1% Distance learning for middle class
MOOCs for everyone else
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Gilded Age campus Elite schools offer liberal arts
education Lack of visible tech = mark of
status BA= mark of service quality Leading majors: finance,
human resources, poli sci
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Follow 1% displays closely
Contributed to sharing economy by age 10
“Middle class” is as historical as the Crusades
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IV. The bubble bursts
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Perfect storm
Demographic decline Accelerated prices + sunk costs
Low public funding
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Alternatives rising
Education’s reputation declines
Homeschooling boom Informal learning on par w/formal
Corporate/gov. research
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Enrollment collapse
http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf
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How does this impact campuses?
Fewer, less crowded campuses
Very international student body, for now
Low-cost programs ($10K BA)
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How does this impact campuses?
Less research published
Tenure a rarity Information support largely outsourced
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Vocational tech classes are widespread in K-12
Apprenticeships are accepted in career paths
Colleges have always been transnational
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Scenarios to consider
1. Silos stand tall2. Cyberpunk world3. Gilded Age 2.04. Bubble bursts
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How do we avoid these fates?
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Part 3. Ways out
Use social media
Expand involvement with open*
•Own your data
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Politics
Lobby politically for massive increase in government funding
Organize on adjuncts Fight for broader
economic policies
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Campus
Futures thinking Teach privacy concepts, practices, and technologies
Nurture public intellectuals
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Your turn
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The bloghttp://bryanalexander.org
The Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander
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Image credits
Wikipedia http://lotrlockedwhovian.tumblr.com/post/
91110915848/i-want-this-at-work https://www.flickr.com/photos/urlukket/6485398549 https://www.flickr.com/photos/vblibrary/5537660712 https://
www.flickr.com/photos/jonny2love/4016385671 http://
www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwells_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html
https://www.alfredclub.com/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/pagedooley/35588740
01/in/photostream/