Foundations of Research
1 Facts, Beliefs and the Irrational
Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472)
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Foundations of Research
2Facts & Beliefs
We saw earlier that facts – empirical observations – are the keystone of the scientific method …and of critical thinking.
What is a “fact”, and how does it differ from a belief or opinion?
Laws
Theories
Hypotheses
Facts
Foundations of Research
3How do we differentiate ‘facts’ from ‘beliefs’?
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover.
The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
Beliefor
Opinion
Empirical Statement or
FactHow do we
distinguish…from
Foundations of Research
4Facts & beliefs
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 120,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover.
The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
These are empirical statements, that could be tested.
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5
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover.
The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
These are beliefs or value statements, not amenable to scientific study.
Facts & beliefs
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6
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
How do we differentiate an assertion based on personal beliefs or values, versus an empirical statement? Is it possible to collect evidence to address the question one
way or another?• What would that evidence look like?• What would a testable hypothesis be?• Can this even be addressed empirically?
What actual evidence is there?
Facts & beliefs
We have established epidemiological methods to test this statement…
…and radiological and other methods to establish this fact.
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7
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
We can, however, reframe a belief statement as a testable hypothesis.
What if we take: We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq.
And reframe it as:
Our economy will improve if the Middle East is socially and economically stable.
This formulation is at least conceivably testable.
Facts & beliefs
These are inherently expressions of personal values or beliefs…No empirical evidence could test or refute them.
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8
We have a responsibility to intervene in Syria & Iraq. Over 100,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.
Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
What empirical research could you do on this statement? How does a belief in intrinsic purpose affect behavior or health?
Who in society holds this belief…
How closely is this belief tied to religious observance…
So, even though an assertion of intrinsic purpose is not an empirical statement…
… taking a creative approach
(here thinking about the implications of a belief)
allows us to develop interesting empirical questions.
Facts & beliefs
Foundations of Research
9
All ideas have some merit and should be considered equally.
Here are some statements; think of whether you agree…
Most any idea is worthy of study. Scientific acceptance of ideas is not egalitarian;
Ideas that are coherent and have empirical support are better.
A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False
Click image for a piece on belief and irrationality from http://www.nothingbychancecoaching.com
Foundations of Research
10Knowledge attitudes, 2
If a lot of people believe something there is probably something to that.
Science is not democratic; Evidence “wins”, not the majority of believers History is full of foolish or dangerous ideas were accepted
by many people, including scientists, until countered by empirical evidence.
However, social consensus does provide grounds for writing a strong hypothesis…
A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False
Foundations of Research
11Knowledge attitudes, 3
I can just sense when something is true or false.
Intuition is an important source of hypotheses or theories
Intuition describes your emotions, not necessarily the real world.
Emotionality & subjectivity are not scientific until they are empirically tested.
A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False
Foundations of Research
12Knowledge attitudes, 4
Everyone is biased, even scientists. Why shouldn’t I just believe what makes
sense to me?A = TrueB = I’m not sureC = False
Everyone does have biases Science is designed to not be person based –
Science is about methods, not people and their bias’ Scientific method specifically works to lessen personal bias.
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13
Some ideas are “better” than others.
Science: core values
Is it logically coherent? Is it supported by evidence? Does it make sense with what
is already known?
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14
Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not
people.
Objective methods are specifically designed to overcome our natural biases.
Core values
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15
Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps
personal biases or beliefs.
Core values
Evidence from the “real world” has the final say.
Not OK to “Cherry pick” confirmatory or self-serving evidence.
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16
Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or
beliefs. Logic or rational thought are (generally) more
important than intuition or emotions.
Is it logically coherent? Is it supported by evidence? Does it make sense with what
is already known?
Core values
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17
Distinguishing fact from belief or opinion is key to…. Critical or empirical thought generally;
The basic building blocks of science
How do you know? Is it possible to empirically test (or refute) your belief?
What would that test look like?
Facts are not social – just shared opinions – but empirical, grounded in the observable world. We can test the implications or consequences of a belief…
Some ideas are simply better than others. Science is anchored on evidence and objective methods, not
individual people or ideologies.
The values of science & empiricismSU
MM
ARY
Laws
Theories
Hypotheses
Facts
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18
Science, anti-science, and magical thought.Why is it so difficult to “stick to the facts”?
Facts, Beliefs and the Irrational
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19
Let’s talk about your beliefs.
How much to you believe in…
Why is it so difficult to take a scientific view?
Foundations of Research
20How much to you believe in…
ESP or Extrasensory Perception
A = I believe in thisB = I am not sureC = I do not believe in this
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Foundations of Research
21Beliefs, 2…
That houses can be haunted
A = I believe in thisB = I am not sureC = I do not believe in this
Shutterstock
Foundations of Research
22Beliefs, 3…
Have you ever been protected by an angel?
A = Yes B = I am not sureC = No
Shutterstock
Foundations of Research
23Are we rational?
Is American society “rational”?Are our beliefs generally scientific?
Irrational beliefs have actually increased in the U.S. in the 21st Century
For a great science and religion myth debunking blog go to Rosa Rubicondior
Shutterstock
Foundations of Research
24Are we rational?
According to Google, there are around 200,000 searches each month for the Loch Ness Monster.
These data are from an ongoing Google survey:
Foundations of Research
25Direct paranormal experiences among Americans
55% of Americans : "I was protected from harm by a guardian angel.“
Baylor University nationally representative survey of 1,721 respondents
Paranormal Experiences in the United StatesPercent that report the following experiences:
Used acupuncture or other forms of alternative medicine 28%
Consulted a horoscope 28%
Consulted a medium, fortune teller or psychic 13%
Had a dream that later came true 43%
Witnessed a UFO 17%
Thus, over half of us do not simply believe in angels, but that we have been directly affected by an angel…
Paranormal beliefs are fairly common in the U.S.:
Foundations of Research
26Beliefs…
About 50% of Americans believe in ESP or spiritual healing
Despite consistent failures to demonstrate it scientifically.
Click the image for a discussion of ESP research from PsychCentral.com.
Click here for an NYT discussion of a study that ostensibly found ESP to exist in college students.
Foundations of Research
27Beliefs, 2…
37% of Americans believe in haunted houses;
16% are ‘not sure’.
% of people who believe in or not sure about haunted houses
% of people who accept that climate change is influenced by human activity.
All data from Gallup.com
Foundations of Research
28Beliefs, 2…
% of people who believe in or not sure about haunted houses
% of people who accept that climate change is influenced by human activity.
All data from Gallup.com
Beliefs that cannot be empirically tested or supported
– such as hauntings – can be accepted by more people than
are scientific findings that affect us all.
Foundations of Research
29Scientific views on evolution are slowly increasing
Most Americans who accept evolution endorse “Intelligent Design”.
Few Americans endorse a scientific view of the origins of species:
Biblical creation views are most common; A direct scientific perspective is uncommon.
Not natural selection.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/170822/believe-creationist-view-human-origins.aspx
Foundations of Research
30Ideology and acceptance of science
Acceptance of evolution varies substantially byreligion
http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/30/publics-views-on-human-evolution/
More conservative faith communities are more likely to reject evolution in favor of a biblical perspective.
Foundations of Research
31Ideology and acceptance of science
Acceptance of evolution varies substantially byand political affiliation.religion
http://www.pewforum.org/2013/12/30/publics-views-on-human-evolution/
Republicans’ rejection of evolution has actually increased over time…
Evolution has been lifted from the realm of facts and theories to become a cultural “wedge issue”.
Here belief is less about evidence than personal ideology.
Foundations of Research
32Ideology and acceptance of science
Rejection of a basic scientific principle such as evolution is often not due to critical thought about the science itself…
…but because the concept becomes intertwined with other core values, such as religious doctrine.
The rejection of science often works this way, whether it be…
…anti-government ideology …conspiratorial belief systems …or other core values.
Foundations of Research
33Ideology & science: the MMR vaccine conspiracy theory.
Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011
Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine
causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Even now 48% of parents accept / are unsure about the vaccine autism link.
Celebrities Jenny McCarthy and Jim Carey at an anti-vaccination rally. Image: katiephd.com; click for a brief history of vaccines.
Foundations of Research
34Ideology & science: the MMR vaccine conspiracy theory.
Click here for a historical review of anti-vaccine movements.
Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine
causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Even now 48% of parents accept / are unsure about the vaccine autism link. Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, and
alternative medicine groups (many of which profit from the “controversy”).
Click here for a discussion of how media manipulation and simple fraud underlie the vaccine - autism “controversy”.
Foundations of Research
35John Steward / Samantha Bee: An outbreak of liberal idiocy
A recent study reported in Mother Jones found four different attempts to change anti-vaccine beliefs all failed• Emotion-based attempts did nothing
• Fact-based attempts actually backfired, and increased anti-vaccine beliefs.
Highly ideologically based beliefs can be almost completely resistant to contrary scientific evidence
Mother Jones article here.
Click for a funny / scary piece on irrational belief.
Everett Collection/Shutterstock
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36
Liberals also have “hallmark” unscientific beliefs; A single fraudulent study in the 1990s led to the belief that the MMR vaccine
causes autism. The science disputing this belief is as strong as that supporting evolution. Still, even now only 48% of parents reject the vaccine autism link. Vaccine beliefs are spearheaded by liberal bloggers, celebrities, or alternative
medicine groups.
Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines
Vaccination rates have decreased due to the vaccine “controversy”.
Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011
86% vaccination rate
98% vaccination rate
Foundations of Research
37Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines
98% vaccination rate
Measles and Pertussis rates – and deaths – have skyrocketed due to vaccination rates going below the critical value of 95% for herd immunity.
86% vaccination rate
Harris Interactive/HealthDay , 2011Data from Harris Interactive/Healthday, 2011
Foundations of Research
38Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines
Non-scientific thought – that is, not based on clear thought or empirical evidence –
is relatively common… And can have serious consequences.
Foundations of Research
39Anti-science and cultural ideology; Vaccines
Non-scientific thought As with evolution, rejection of the science underlying
vaccine safety is tied in with a larger value system; living a “green” life Mistrust of the pharmaceutical industry.
Foundations of Research
40Why do we reject scientific explanations?
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition
is easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;
o We belong to a group by sharing its values and beliefs.It can be difficult to challenge a shared core value.
o Social groups can induce a “false consensus”; If most of our friends believe something we can not only be
swayed… …but assume the belief is widely shared.
o We may actually join social groups due to a shared, non-rational belief, e.g., UFO societies.
Foundations of Research
41Why do we reject scientific explanations?
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is easier and
“feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;
Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations
Both gun regulations & crime have decreased since 1980. Does that mean that more guns = lower crime? Areas with more guns actually have more crime. Nationally crime has lessened due to the end of the crack
epidemic, higher incarceration rates, and community policing. The ‘correlation’ between lessening regulations and crime
reduction is spurious, but… Requires we take a closer, skeptical look at the evidence Reflects the core values of some social groups
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42
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations often abstract & difficult; intuition is
easier and “feels better” Strong conformity pressure of popular opinion
Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations
When we see a correlation, it is easy for us to misinterpret the actual cause.
Things can appear to be correlated even in nonsense data
Spurious correlation.
The scientist yells “JUMP!” at the frog and the frog jumps one meter.Then he cuts off one of the frog’s legs, yells “JUMP!” and the frog jumps half a
meter.Then he cuts off another of the frog’s legs, yells “JUMP!” and the frog jumps a
fifth of a meter.Then he cuts off a third leg, yells “JUMP!” and the frog does not jump. He yells
“JUMP!” again, and the frog does not jump.“Aha!” he says. “I have my result!” So he carefully writes in his lab book: “When
three legs are removed, a frog becomes deaf.”
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43
http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2948, 4/9/15
r = .87
EXA
MPL
E
This (obvious nonsense) correlation comes from searching through a huge data set to find variables that move the same way over time.
Looking at the graph it is difficult to not want to figure out how Miss America causes murder by steam (older Miss As are ‘hotter’?).
This is a basic perceptual fallacy; if the movement of B follows the movement of A, A must cause B.
Example of a (silly) spurious correlation.
Foundations of Research
44Spurious correlations
r = .666
http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=359, 4/9/15EXA
MPL
E
2 clear & readable links from Charlie Kufs’ Cats With Stats Blog:Correlations and CausalityHow to tell a good correlation
More nonsense…
Although it does support the hypothesis that Nicolas Cage is evil…
More weird correlations? Here.
Foundations of Research
453rd variables in spurious correlations
Spurious correlations Often we get tripped by intuitive rather than logical
interpretation
Shoe size and reading performance for elementaryschool children
Age: Older children have larger shoe sizes and readbetter.
Number of police officers and number of crimes(Glass & Hopkins, 1996)
Population density: In highly dense areas, there are morepolice officers and more crimes. Number of storks sighted and the
population of Oldenburg, Germany, over a six-year period (Box, Hunter, & Hunter, 1978)
Time: Both variables were increasing over time.
Correlation Cause
EXA
MPL
E
Age
Population density
Time
Foundations of Research
463rd variables in spurious correlationsEX
AM
PLE
Intuitively we may try to figure out how kids with bigger feet read better, or storks lead to more people…
These correlations are senseless unless we consider the underlying (3rd) variables that really are important.
It is common for a 3rd variable to actually cause both terms in the correlation.
Foundations of Research
47Interpreting correlations
From the correlation in this chart
What else could be going on?
Countries with the most fat & cancer tend to be wealthier, more urbanized and industrialized.
They may also show different patterns of exercise and prepared (“factory”) food consumption.
Do wealth and urbanization increase exposure to carcinogens other than fat? (The 3rd variable problem).
Even an “obvious” causal link can be questionable or incomplete if it relies on correlational data only.
FIGURE 3 | Association between fat intake and breast cancer.
From: Diet and cancer — the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. S. Bingham & E. Riboli, Nature Reviews Cancer 4, 206-215 (March 2004). doi:10.1038/nrc1298, http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v4/n3/fig_tab/nrc1298_F3.html
appears to cause cancer.fat
Total dietary fat intake (g day-1)
Age
-adj
uste
d de
ath
rate
per
100
,000
peo
pleThe chart makes this causal explanation
visually compelling…
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48
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is
easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;
Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations High salience of single events
Anti-vaccine activists vividly describe individual children who developed autism symptoms after receiving vaccines.
Broader but less dramatic research shows vaccine administration to be unrelated to autism.
Autism can first occur at the age when vaccines are administered, making for ‘high drama’ case studies.
…Jenny McCarthy’s son has changed more attitudes than has a mountain of science showing her to be wrong….
Why do we reject scientific explanations
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49
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations are often abstract & difficult; intuition is
easier and “feels better”. Strong conformity pressure for popular opinion;
Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations High salience of single events
Uber, AirB&B and other ‘sharing economy’ services occasionally have a disaster, increasing fears that they can be dangerous.
In 2015 a guest was harmed by his Spanish AirB&B host. That day AirB&B had 800,000 guests around the world… If an event like that happens once a month your odds of being
harmed are 1 out of 23 million. The salience of that one event can out-weigh its wildly small odds
of happening to any given guest.
Why do we reject scientific explanations
Foundations of Research
50Why do we reject scientific explanations?
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias
We recall information that confirms our beliefs or feelings
“correlations” salient events
Foundations of Research
51Why do we reject scientific explanations?
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias Emotional needs; we are drawn to beliefs that:
Give us a sense of control over our world Provide a “larger picture” or sense of transcendence
ShutterstockShutterstock
People can be vulnerable to Astrology, ESP, Psychics and similar
superstitions because they lead us to think we can better predict and control
our world.
Foundations of Research
52Why do we reject scientific explanations?
When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence. Cognitive availability and confirmatory bias Emotional needs; we are drawn to beliefs that:
Give us a sense of control over our world Provide a “larger picture” or sense of transcendence
Cultural patterns Our polarized political culture intentionally confuses fact with
opinion. Uncritical media coverage of even silly ‘theories’.
o The [evolution, Obama birth place…] “controversy”.
Foundations of Research
53Why do we reject scientific explanations?
Cultural patterns Our polarized political culture intentionally confuses fact with
opinion.The illegal immigrant “crisis” in the U.S. is largely a political fiction.
Illegal (and legal) immigrants are not entering the country at near the catastrophic numbers cited by politicians and commentators. Outflow of immigrants is roughly equal to inflow.
Immigrants – legal and illegal – show lower rates of crime, alcohol & drug abuse and other social problems than does the general population.
Political and media commentators cite an immigrant “crisis” (likening most illegal immigrants to hardened criminals) to generate fear and win votes by proposing simplistic (and even inhumane) “solutions”.
Individuals threatened by a changing economy & culture can focus their anxiety on a social “out group” rather than the less controllable, more abstract international economic processes.
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54
From: http://images.thesecret.tv/The-Secret-Press-Kit-Dec13.pdf
Why “Truthiness”? Our media and political cultures increasingly merge
fact and opinion: ‘Truth’ is increasingly seen as personal, not public or
objective.
Quasi-mystical belief systems (and expensive products!) such as The Secret gain millions of followers by positing that physical reality can be molded by individual beliefs.
Foundations of Research
55“Truthiness” in modern culture
“Truthiness”, introduced by Stephen Colbert in his first show, was the Merriam Webster word of the year in 2006.
It means accepting something as ‘fact’ primarily because it feels right.
Colbert was framing “truthiness” as emblematic of our collective refusal to adhere to hard facts – e.g., science and empiricism.
Click for Colbert’s
Truthiness description.
Some Context:The President had nominated Harriet Meyers, his personal lawyer, to the Supreme Court.
She was clearly unqualified (by her own report).
The President pushed for her so he would have an ally on the court.
Our media and political cultures increasingly merge fact and opinion:
Foundations of Research
56Why “Truthiness”? Our media and political cultures
increasingly merge fact and opinion:
This frees anti-science commentators to attribute everything from evolution, the “big bang” theory, climate change, to the effects of gun violence to ideology, not fact.
Using emotional resonance as a criteria for belief allows us to ignore or distort facts that do not fit.
‘Facts’ or science are viewed by some as elitist or politically suspect…
Academia and, in particular, social sciences do have a bias toward liberal thought…(Click for an excellent overview in The New Yorker).
Foundations of Research
57American penchant for conspiracy theories
Another social / cognitive process that undermines the acceptance of science are conspiracy theories.
What are conspiracy theories and where do they come from?
Conspiracy theories…
Image: http://rememberbuilding7.org/ Click for a site dedicated to disputing the official version of the collapse of “Building 7” at the 9/11 site.
Foundations of Research
58Conspiracy theories
Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Richard Hofstadter accurately described a paranoid style in
American politics, featuring conspiracy theories from the very outset of the country.
Simple stress, powerlessness or alienation can induce irrational or conspiratorial beliefs.
…particularly those that lessen complexity and restore a sense of control to life.
Strong free-market beliefs can induce conspiratorial thinking when issues such as climate change may justify economic regulations (here and here).
Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Our brain has evolved to see patterns in our world, and to respond
quickly to threat. These two dispositions can, under stress or uncertainty, lead to
conspiracy perspectives.
Foundations of Research
59Conspiracy theories
Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Consensus among scientists is (falsely) denied, to make
conclusions appear arbitrary. …”many scientists do not accept climate change…” …”scientists disagree on how evolution even works…”
“Closed loop” logic; Attempts to refute the theory are just evidence of the conspiracy
itself (e.g., the “lame stream media” is in on the climate change hoax).
Circumstantial evidence is overstated …”if it is cold today global warming must be a myth…” …”my child became autistic just after he got vaccinated…”
Foundations of Research
60Conspiracy theories
Stem from a fear-based cognitive style Our brain may create vulnerability to conspiracy views; Consensus among scientists is denied, to make conclusions
appear arbitrary. “Closed loop” logic; Circumstantial evidence is overstated Powerful confirmatory bias
“Evidence” consistent with the conspiracy theory is accepted & publicized
Contrary evidence is ignored, dismissed or distorted.
Foundations of Research
61Examples of anti-scientific conspiracy theories.
Autism is caused by the MMR Vaccine HIV is not the cause of AIDS Climate change is a Hoax
“Just so you know, global warming is a total fraud and it is being designed by… liberals who get elected at the local level want state government to do the work and let them make the decisions.”…“That’s what the game plan is. It’s … more and bigger control over our lives by higher levels of government. And global warming is that strategy in spades”. Dana Rohrabacher. R California.
“One of the difficulties in examining the issue of the climate change and greenhouse gases is that there is a wide range of scientific opinion on this issue and the science community does not agree to the extent of the problem or the critical threshold of when this problem is truly catastrophic.” Daryl Issa, R-Cal.
Foundations of Research
62Bottom line
American media, political and religious trends are often not supportive of empirical or scientific thought.
• Political polarization often requires a rejection of empirical thought
• “Truthiness”; we take our own feelings as a guide to what is true.
• Conspiracy theories
A scientific (rational, empirical) perspective: Has critical thinking as a core value Combines rational thought with empirical evidence Is not just a “research method”, but a larger approach to
knowledge.
In addition, our cognitive and emotional dispositions may make rational, evidence-based judgments more difficult…
Foundations of Research
63Intuition and Magical thought
Our brains may be “hard wired” for intuitive, “Magical Thought”
Foundations of Research
64Intuition, Magical Thought & science
The brain has evolved to make snap judgments about causation:
We leap to conclusions before logic can be applied. Our emotional needs can distort our perceptions before the
logical brain kicks in…
Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).
We experience emotions faster than we can think
WTF !!??!!
Shutterstock
Foundations of Research
65Intuition, Magical Thought & science
Taking a rational, empirical approach often requires us to suppress our intuitions or emotions
The brain has evolved to make snap judgments about causation:
We leap to conclusions before logic can be applied. Our emotional needs can distort our perceptions before the
logical brain kicks in… Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and
effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).
NYTimes.com: Leonard Nimoy, best known for playing the character Spock in the Star Trek television shows and films, died at 83. Click image for story.By Robin Lindsay on Publish Date February 27, 2015. Photo by NBC, via Photofest.
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“Magical thought” is a spurious belief in cause & effect.
Friday the 13th is unlucky Never open an umbrellas inside / put a hat on the bed Cross your fingers / Knock on wood for luck 666 is evil / Break a mirror get 7 years bad luck Black cat crossing your path is unlucky Never walk under a ladder Always pick up a penny
Magic in Western culture.
How many of these do you agree with?
A = Pretty much all these are trueB = 4 or 5 are trueC = 2 or 3 are trueD = I can see at least one that is trueE = None of them are true
Foundations of Research
67Magical thought is woven into mainstream culture
A form of sympathetic magic: like attracts like. Feelings and thoughts send a “frequency” to the
world that attracts other things on that frequency.
Therefore, your thoughts affect nature directly:
Pop self-improvement methods: such as “The secret”, the great majority of Dr. Oz’s promotions…
Core concept: “The law of attraction”;
Evidence: Yes, being optimistic helps get you motivated NO, your brain cannot reorder the physical world.
Both promoted by celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey.
Thinking about money will actually change your finances.
“Healthy thoughts” will directly affect your body.
Foundations of Research
68Magical thought and marketing
Magnetic Athletic gear Concept: Magnets enhance blood flow.
Iron in the blood is attracted to a magnetic force.
The body has an electromagnetic energy balance.
Magnets ‘rebalance’ energy to lower strain & injuries.
Evidence: Magnetism has a long & sorry history in fraudulent “magic” cures. Blood iron is bound to hemoglobin and is not magnetic. There is no identifiable ‘electromagnetic energy balance’. No evidence supports either the theory or practice of magnet therapy.
Click for a Live Science article on magnetic healing.
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69Magical thought and marketing
Click the image for an excellent review of this magical thought by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons in the New York Times.
Chabris & Simons describe “The Secret”, “The Power” and the like as perfectly exploiting our cognitive bias’ and limitations: We have limitless (cognitive, physical,
spiritual) powers, if only we could unleash them…;
The “nature” we see about us is infinitely malleable; our thoughts and feelings override / modify the physical world.
“Physics” and “The Ancients” tell us all this is true.
Illustration by Ross MacDonald /New York Times.
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Concept:Substances that enhance healing
inside the body can reverse wrinkles when applied to the skin.
Collagen, stem cells.
Magical thought and marketing
Evidence: Most botanicals do not even penetrate the skin. No efficacy data at all. Collagen in high consistent doses can increase skin firmness, but
the effect vanishes once the regimen stops. Marketed as ‘rare’ products, with prices into the hundreds of dollars. Cheap brands are typically identical to expensive labels.
Anti-aging beauty products
Click for a brief Chicago Tribune article on anti-aging creams..
Click image for lengthy WebMD review.
Foundations of Research
71Magical thought and marketing
Some ads not only suggest anti-aging properties, but seem to touch on some politically sensitive topics…
Image from Beauty and Fashion forum of http://forums.vr-zone.com/. Click image for direct link.
Foundations of Research
72Magical thought and marketing
Concept: “Natural” ingredients in very
high doses enhance health. High doses of agents already in
the body (vitamins, minerals) enhance health.
Diet supplements
Evidence: Most supplements (even from major stores) have no active ingredients.
In a New York Times investigation Target's “Up and Up” brand of St. Johns Wort and Valerian root contained none of those ingredients.
Some unlisted ingredients (ephedrine, caffeine) are dangerous in high doses.
Multi-billion dollar industry with virtually no regulations, and zero proven efficacy. Click for the NYT article
on supplements.
Foundations of Research
73Magical thought and marketing
Why do so many people believe in these “magical” products? We are lied to by marketers,
who we irrationally trust. (See, for example, http://www.ionloop.com/)
We want to believe• We want to have control
over our world• We filter information to
support our needs.
Click the image for a cute satire of
homeopathic medicine.
Foundations of Research
74Rational and irrational thought
Critical / Empirical thought is often not the norm Political / religious / ideological biases
Many reject a scientific perspective when it threatens an existing belief system
Empiricism can be viewed as the enemy of political or economic interests.
The distinction between fact and opinion is increasingly blurred.
Cognitive biases Spurious correlations – coincidence – can seem to be “real”
We make snap judgments about cause & effect
Emotional needs. We often want to believe;
SUM
MA
RY
We seek control and predictability
We are vulnerable to explanations that make us feel good.
Foundations of Research
75Introduction to science, 3
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