No. 396 July 2020
Forecasts for the UK economy:
a comparison of independent forecasts
compiled by the Macroeconomic Co-ordination & Strategy Teamwww.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury/series/data-forecasts
© Crown copyright 2020
You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/ or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or e-mail: [email protected].
Any queries regarding this publication should be sent to us at: [email protected]
ISBN 978-1-913635-42-8
PU797
Contents
Page
Summary Page: Short-term forecasts 3
Table 1 - 2020: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 4
Table 2 - 2020: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5
Table 3 - 2020: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6
Table 4 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 7
Table 5 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8
Table 6 - 2021: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9
Average of independent forecasts for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 10
Average of independent forecasts for 2020; Current account and PSNB (2020-21) 11
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 12
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; Current account and PSNB (2021-22) 13
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 14
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2020-21) made in last 3 months 15
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months 16
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; LFS unemployment, current account and PSNB (2021-22) made in last 3 months 17
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables 18
Annex 2: Data definitions 19
Annex 3: Notation used in tables 20
Annex 4: Organisation contact details 21
ISBN 978-1-913635-32-9
Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.
Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and co-ordinated by Tyler Appleby. Please direct enquiries on the content of this issue to Tyler Appleby ([email protected]).
The next edition will be published on the 19th August 2020. It will also be available on the Treasury’s website:https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/data-forecasts
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 2
Forecasts for 2020
July June Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) -9.2 -9.1 -12.0 -6.6 -9.1
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 0.7 0.8 0.0 2.5 0.5
- RPI 1.5 1.3 0.4 6.7 1.4
LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) 8.1 7.9 5.9 10.8 8.0
Current account (£bn) -85.5 -82.5 -244.0 -41.1 -74.9
PSNB (2020-21: £bn) 293.1 270.7 209.4 360.0 297.4
Forecasts for 2021
July June Lowest Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 6.3 6.2 1.5 10.3 6.6
Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)
- CPI 1.7 1.7 0.5 3.2 1.7
- RPI 2.8 2.6 1.1 6.7 2.7
LFS unemployment rate (Q4: %) 6.4 6.4 4.0 9.4 6.5
Current account (£bn) -80.7 -76.5 -143.0 -26.4 -76.5
PSNB (2021-22: £bn) 150.3 146.8 91.4 220.0 158.7
FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY
This edition of the comparison contains 21 new forecasts, all of which were received between July 1st and July 13th 2020.
The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2020 and 2021 and show the average of
this month’s new forecasts.
Average of new*
forecasts
Independent+
Averages July
Independent+
Averages JulyAverage of new*
forecasts
+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months: May 6
institutions, June 3 institutions and July 21 institutions.
*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.
Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see
notation)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 3
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters Q2 Q3
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * -11.3 -21.0 12.0 -13.2 -1.7 -17.2 -0.6 - - - 1.2 -
Barclays Capital Jul * -7.5 -15.8 13.5 -8.4 0.3 -20.0 -1.1 - - - 2.4 -
Bloomberg Economics Jul * -9.7 -19.0 13.0 - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics Jul * -9.3 -23.7 15.5 -13.0 4.8 -14.1 -0.3 -10.0 -15.0 -16.6 0.7 -
Citigroup Jul * -9.6 -19.6 14.1 -8.5 -3.6 -16.4 0.1 -11.1 -15.6 -18.7 1.1 -
Commerzbank Jul * -10.1 -18.3 10.7 -10.0 -2.0 -27.9 -0.1 -11.7 -19.6 -24.7 1.8 -3.9
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 0.8 - - 1.1 1.7 0.4 -1.8 1.1 7.4 1.5 1.5 -0.3
Deutsche Bank May -11.5 -17.5 6.9 -11.7 5.1 -22.8 - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs May -10.4 -15.1 6.1 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC Jul * -7.8 -16.0 11.9 -9.1 0.6 -9.6 - -7.3 -13.4 -13.2 - -
ING Financial Markets Jan 1.2 - - 1.4 1.3 0.3 - 0.7 2.1 0.3 0.5 -
JP Morgan Jul * -8.3 -19.6 -7.9 SAAR -4.3 -4.7 - -1.1 -4.3 -19.1 -12.9 -1.8 -
Morgan Stanley Jan 1.4 - - 1.3 3.0 2.2 -0.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.1
Natwest Markets Jul * -7.8 -17.1 14.9 -6.6 -4.9 -11.5 - -8.0 -6.7 -7.4 0.2 -
Nomura May -10.0 -19.0 13.5 -11.4 1.4 -10.8 -0.3 - -16.6 -17.9 0.6 -
Pantheon May -9.0 -20.0 17.5 -10.0 -2.2 -12.5 -0.4 -9.2 -12.0 -12.5 0.3 -
Santander GBM Dec 1.0 - - 1.4 1.4 0.9 -0.7 0.0 2.9 -0.5 1.0 -0.7
Schroders Investment Management Jun -8.5 -17.1 13.2 -8.2 -1.4 -6.0 -0.6 -7.0 -16.4 -11.5 -1.4 -3.5
Societe Generale Jul * -9.2 -19.3 16.0 -12.4 2.2 -12.2 0.1 -9.6 -10.2 -11.1 0.4 -10.8
UBS Jul * -9.4 -16.7 10.0 -9.5 0.5 -10.8 -0.8 -8.7 -13.5 -10.8 -0.7 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan 1.1 - - 1.3 3.0 0.3 - - 1.1 1.4 - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * -8.0 -8.7 -0.1 -3.7 -2.9 -15.5 -1.9 -7.5 -15.1 -14.7 0.4 -
Cambridge Econometrics Aug 1.3 - - 2.1 1.4 2.1 - - 1.8 3.1 - -
CBI Mar 1.2 0.4 - 1.2 2.0 0.7 -0.4 0.4 1.8 -1.0 0.8 -0.3
CEBR May -7.0 - - -8.0 3.4 -14.1 -0.5 -7.3 0.5 -0.7 0.4 -
Economic Perspectives Jul * -9.5 6.7 8.6 -14.5 13.6 -17.2 -0.1 -9.9 -12.2 -13.2 0.5 -
Experian Economics Jul * -12.0 -20.2 7.1 -11.4 3.9 -20.6 -0.6 -11.3 -17.0 -13.9 -0.8 -
EIU Jul * -9.0 -20.6 18.6 -9.9 6.0 -24.0 3.0 -9.1 -20.6 -22.3 - -3.1
Heteronomics Jul * -7.8 -20.0 21.1 -8.1 -1.4 -17.7 -0.6 -8.4 -6.6 -10.8 1.4 -1.3
IHS Markit Economics Oct 0.5 - - 0.7 1.5 -2.4 - 0.3 0.5 -1.5 - -
ITEM Club Jul * -8.9 -17.0 10.6 -9.6 2.5 -16.4 - -8.5 -24.2 -22.2 -0.4 -
Kern Consulting Jul * -9.5 - - -8.0 - -14.0 - - - - - -
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * -6.6 - - -6.3 0.6 -15.3 - - - - - -
NIESR May -7.2 -13.6 8.5 - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics Jul * -10.9 - - -14.9 1.4 -10.0 -0.2 -11.3 -22.6 -23.2 0.4 -5.0
PwC Dec 1.0 - - 1.4 2.7 -0.5 - - 3.3 0.0 - -
European Commission Jul * -9.7 -18.2 11.9 - - - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun -11.5 - - -15.2 10.1 -20.3 -0.7 -11.8 -15.8 -17.0 0.6 -
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun -14.0 - - -18.5 11.2 -23.6 -0.7 -14.3 -16.9 -18.1 0.6 -
IMF Jun -10.2 - - - - - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent -9.2 -16.8 12.0 -9.6 0.9 -15.5 -0.3 -8.9 -14.5 -14.6 0.4 -4.6
New (marked *) -9.1 -16.7 12.3 -9.5 0.8 -16.1 -0.3 -9.1 -15.4 -15.7 0.5 -4.8
City -9.3 -18.3 12.6 -9.7 -0.4 -14.7 -0.5 -8.7 -14.4 -14.3 0.4 -6.1
Highest -6.6 6.7 21.1 -3.7 13.6 -6.0 3.0 -4.3 0.5 -0.7 2.4 -1.3
Lowest -12.0 -23.7 -0.1 -14.9 -4.9 -27.9 -1.9 -11.7 -24.2 -24.7 -1.8 -10.8
Median -9.3 -18.2 12.0 -9.5 0.6 -15.3 -0.4 -8.9 -15.1 -13.2 0.4 -3.7
OBR - central economic scenario Jul -12.4 -21.1 8.8 -13.9 -1.6 -23.4 0.8 -12.4 - - 0.1 -
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
To
tal
imp
ort
s
Net
trad
e (
con
trib
uti
on
to
GD
P g
row
th (
pp
t))
Ou
tpu
t G
ap
(as
% o
f
po
ten
tial
GD
P)
Table 1 - 2020: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth)
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Go
vern
men
t co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Fixe
d i
nve
stm
en
t
Inve
nto
ries
(co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
to G
DP g
row
th (
pp
t))
Do
mest
ic d
em
an
d
To
tal
exp
ort
s
GD
P
Qu
art
erl
y G
DP
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 4
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 0.6 0.6 - - 0.0 - - -
Barclays Capital Jul * 0.9 1.1 - - 0.1 41.0 - -
Bloomberg Economics Jul * 0.4 - - - 0.1 - - -
Capital Economics Jul * 0.0 0.4 -1.4 80.8 0.1 45.0 -9.3 -4.0
Citigroup Jul * 0.2 0.9 -5.1 - 0.0 - - -
Commerzbank Jul * 0.4 1.0 -0.2 77.0 0.1 39.4 -9.3 -4.9 y
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan 1.4 - 3.2 - 0.5 - - 2.2
Deutsche Bank May 0.8 1.6 - - 0.1 - - -
Goldman Sachs May 0.5 - - - 0.1 - - -
HSBC Jul * 0.9 1.5 -0.5 - 0.1 - - -
ING Financial Markets Jan 1.6 - - - - - - -
JP Morgan Jul * 0.3 - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley Jan 2.1 2.8 3.9 - 1.0 - - 1.0
Natwest Markets Jul * 0.1 0.9 0.2 - 0.1 40.0 -6.1 -
Nomura May 1.0 1.7 1.1 76.7 0.1 - - -
Pantheon May 0.2 0.7 1.5 - 0.1 - - -
Santander GBM Dec 1.6 2.4 3.4 - 0.8 64.0 - -
Schroders Investment Management Jun 0.9 1.6 4.2 - 0.1 - -7.6 6.2 x
Societe Generale Jul * 0.4 1.1 -1.3 - 0.1 - -8.3 -
UBS Jul * 0.8 1.4 0.0 - 0.1 - -8.0 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan 1.6 - 2.8 - 0.8 - - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 0.1 1.3 2.0 78.6 0.1 42.4 -5.0 4,6 z
Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - -
CBI Mar 2.3 3.0 3.2 77.5 1.0 56.5 - 1.6
CEBR May 2.5 3.2 0.0 79.5 - - - -
Economic Perspectives Jul * 0.8 6.7 2.0 77.4 0.1 40.0 -8.8 -3.0 k
Experian Economics Jul * 0.5 1.0 -2.0 79.0 0.1 38.7 - -2.0 z
EIU Jul * 0.7 1.2 -16.2 - 0.1 40.0 -8.0 -6.0 z
Heteronomics Jul * 0.2 1.0 -0.2 80.9 0.1 39.2 - -2.5 z
IHS Markit Economics Oct 2.2 - - - 0.8 63.8 2.9 -
ITEM Club Jul * 0.5 1.2 -0.4 - 0.1 41.9 - 2.0 z
Kern Consulting Jul * 0.9 - 1.9 - 0.1 43.0 - -
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 1.8 - 3.0 78.6 0.3 - - -
NIESR May 1.7 - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics Jul * 0.3 0.5 -0.1 76.8 0.1 41.2 -8.9 -3.5 k
PwC Dec - - - - - - - 2.1
European Commission Jul * 0.7 - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 0.2 - - - - - - -
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 0.1 - - - - - - -
IMF Apr 1.2 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent 0.7 1.5 -0.6 78.5 0.10 41.0 -7.9 -2.0
New (marked *) 0.5 1.4 -1.1 78.6 0.10 41.0 -8.0 -3.0
City 0.5 1.1 -0.2 78.2 0.09 41.3 -8.1 -0.9
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 2.5 6.7 4.2 80.9 0.25 45.0 -5.0 6.2
Lowest 0.0 0.4 -16.2 76.7 0.00 38.7 -9.3 -6.0
Median 0.6 1.1 -0.1 78.6 0.10 40.5 -8.2 -3.0
OBR - central economic scenario Jul 0.3 1.3 h 0.2 - 0.03 - -10.1 -0.7 h
CPI
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r
ag
o,
%)
RPI
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r
ag
o,
%)
Ave
rag
e ea
rnin
gs
Ste
rlin
g i
nd
ex (
Jan
20
05
=1
00
)
Off
icia
l B
an
k ra
te
(lev
el i
n Q
4,
%)
Oil p
rice
(B
ren
t, $
/bb
l)
Table 2 - 2020: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
No
min
al
GD
P
Ho
use
pri
ce i
nfl
ati
on
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r ag
o,
%)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 5
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * - - - - - - - - - 350.0
Barclays Capital Jul * - -1.6 6.9 - - - - - - 262.8
Bloomberg Economics Jul * - - 8.5 - - - - - - -
Capital Economics Jul * -6.0 -1.5 5.9 1.5 - -20.0 -41.1 845.0 -11.1 360.0
Citigroup Jul * - -3.8 9.3 - -12.4 - -103.0 734.0 - 279.7
Commerzbank Jul * -1.0 -1.7 8.1 2.8 -12.7 -4.6 -60.8 - 0.5 310.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - 4.0 - - - - 445.0 0.7 -
Deutsche Bank May - - 10.1 - - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs May - - 6.1 - - - - - - -
HSBC Jul * - - 7.2 - 0.2 - - - - -
ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
JP Morgan Jul * - - 8.0 - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley Jan - 0.7 3.7 - - - - - - -
Natwest Markets Jul * -2.2 -0.8 6.7 - -8.4 - -62.0 785.0 - 325.0
Nomura May - - 8.0 - - - - 745.0 - -
Pantheon May - -4.0 7.2 - - - - 745.0 - 300.0
Santander GBM Dec - -0.1 4.4 - -0.4 - -78.0 445.0 - 59.5
Schroders Investment Management Jun 2.0 -4.9 9.5 3.2 - - -244.0 745.0 - 301.6
Societe Generale Jul * -5.5 -2.3 8.6 - - - -93.8 745.0 -1.3 313.5
UBS Jul * - - 6.5 - -4.0 - -82.4 745.0 - 305.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - 4.0 - 0.3 - -95.7 - 1.0 53.0
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * -4.9 -4.7 10.8 3.8 -8.4 -12.3 -70.3 745.0 -4.3 243.5
Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - - - -
CBI Mar 0.6 0.4 4.1 - - - -73.5 - - 53.4
CEBR May -3.4 0.7 7.7 2.7 -9.0 - - - - -
Economic Perspectives Jul * -5.8 6.7 10.2 3.7 -10.0 -20.0 -55.0 645.0 1.2 265.0
Experian Economics Jul * -4.7 -3.0 8.5 3.3 - - -90.4 - - 290.0
EIU Jul * - -7.5 - - -9.8 -22.6 -82.1 - -4.6 -
Heteronomics Jul * - -1.2 6.8 - - - -65.4 800.0 -6.6 296.0
IHS Markit Economics Oct - 0.2 4.3 - 0.2 - - - - -
ITEM Club Jul * -2.8 -1.1 8.2 - -10.8 - -90.1 745.0 - 335.0
Kern Consulting Jul * - - 9.0 - -8.5 - -88.0 - - 240.0
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * - - - 2.4 - - -64.3 - - 239.1
NIESR May - - 10.5 - - - - - - 209.4
Oxford Economics Jul * -4.2 -1.7 6.5 3.0 -13.6 -8.8 -75.5 745.0 2.2 343.0
PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -
European Commission Jul * - - - - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun - - 9.1 - - - - - - -
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun - - 10.4 - - - - - - -
IMF Apr - - 4.8 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent -3.5 -2.0 8.1 2.9 -9.0 -14.7 -85.5 751.5 -3.0 293.1
New (marked *) -4.1 -1.9 8.0 2.9 -9.0 -14.7 -74.9 753.4 -3.0 297.4
City -2.5 -2.6 7.8 2.5 -7.5 -14.7 -98.2 761.1 -4.0 310.8
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 2.0 6.7 10.8 3.8 0.2 -4.6 -41.1 845.0 2.2 360.0
Lowest -6.0 -7.5 5.9 1.5 -13.6 -22.6 -244.0 645.0 -11.1 209.4
Median -4.2 -1.7 8.1 3.0 -9.4 -16.2 -78.8 745.0 -2.8 300.0
OBR - central economic scenario Jul - - 11.9 - - - - 5.0 322.0
PSN
B
(£b
n 2
02
0-2
1)
LFS U
nem
plo
ymen
t ra
te
(Q4
)
Table 3 - 2020: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Rea
l h
ou
seh
old
dis
po
sab
le i
nco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t g
row
th
Cla
iman
t u
nem
plo
ymen
t
(Q4
,millio
ns)
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g o
utp
ut
Wo
rld
tra
de
in g
oo
ds
an
d
serv
ices
Siz
e o
f A
PF
pu
rch
ase
s
(Q4
, £
bn
)
Cu
rren
t acc
ou
nt
(£b
n)
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
(Ou
tpu
t p
er
ho
ur)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 6
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 6.8 7.6 4.3 -1.0 0.4 - - - 0.8 -
Barclays Capital Jul * 5.8 5.3 3.1 6.7 0.2 - - - 0.6 -
Bloomberg Economics Jul * 9.0 - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics Jul * 7.7 10.0 -1.2 6.8 0.0 7.1 9.0 7.5 0.6 -
Citigroup Jul * 6.2 7.3 7.7 8.7 -0.1 7.8 6.2 9.1 -0.8 -
Commerzbank Jul * 7.0 5.5 2.9 8.0 0.6 6.0 10.8 6.8 1.1 -1.5
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank May 3.0 2.0 3.7 2.2 - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs May 7.0 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC Jul * 6.2 7.6 5.0 0.5 - 6.2 4.2 4.5 - -
ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
JP Morgan Jul * 6.6 6.0 3.6 - 2.3 6.0 1.0 4.7 -1.1 -
Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Natwest Markets Jul * 6.8 5.4 7.1 4.2 - 7.0 1.5 2.2 -0.2 -
Nomura May 6.1 6.6 4.2 4.7 0.4 - 6.2 6.2 0.0 -
Pantheon May 8.0 8.5 5.0 6.0 0.3 7.5 3.0 4.0 -0.3 -
Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - - - -
Schroders Investment Management Jun 6.1 5.9 4.3 12.3 1.0 7.6 1.3 6.9 -1.7 -2.5
Societe Generale Jul * 7.6 7.9 6.0 9.3 0.1 7.8 3.0 3.8 -0.3 -4.7
UBS Jul * 5.5 6.1 4.5 2.4 0.0 5.3 4.0 3.2 0.2 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 1.5 2.1 2.6 -2.4 0.1 3.7 -2.7 4.0 -2.1 -
Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - - - -
CBI Mar 1.8 1.4 2.5 2.1 -0.1 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
CEBR May 2.9 3.8 0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.0 8.8 1.6 1.4 -
Economic Perspectives Jul * 4.9 6.7 4.1 -2.7 -0.4 5.1 2.3 2.6 -0.1 -
Experian Economics Jul * 9.0 9.6 4.9 14.6 0.1 9.0 13.0 13.1 0.6 -
EIU Jul * 6.0 8.0 -4.5 22.0 4.0 7.0 9.7 13.7 - -2.7
Heteronomics Jul * 6.8 7.4 0.6 3.7 1.2 5.5 2.9 2.6 0.1 -0.7
IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - - - -
ITEM Club Jul * 6.0 6.0 3.5 12.9 - 6.5 2.9 4.9 -0.5 -
Kern Consulting Jul * 6.0 6.5 - 10.0 - - - - - -
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 6.2 6.1 0.6 8.3 - - - - - -
NIESR May 6.8 - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics Jul * 10.3 12.8 7.3 12.0 0.3 11.9 16.9 22.6 -1.7 -3.4
PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -
European Commission Jul * 6.0 - - - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 9.0 12.2 1.3 7.2 0.1 8.9 -1.1 -1.0 0.0
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 5.0 5.2 4.0 4.8 0.1 4.9 -2.9 -2.8 0.0 -
IMF Jun 6.3 - - - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent 6.3 6.7 3.5 6.5 0.5 6.6 5.5 6.5 -0.2 -2.2
New (marked *) 6.6 7.0 3.5 6.9 0.6 6.8 5.6 7.0 -0.2 -2.6
City 6.6 6.6 4.3 5.4 0.5 6.8 4.6 5.4 -0.1 -2.9
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 10.3 12.8 7.7 22.0 4.0 11.9 16.9 22.6 1.4 0.0
Lowest 1.5 2.0 -4.5 -2.7 -0.8 1.0 -2.7 1.6 -2.1 -4.7
Median 6.2 6.6 4.1 6.7 0.2 6.8 4.0 4.7 -0.1 -2.5
OBR - central economic scenario Jul 8.7 7.7 8.4 16.0 -0.1 8.8 - - -0.2 -
Ou
tpu
t G
ap
(as
% o
f
po
ten
tial
GD
P)
Table 4 - 2021: Growth in GDP and its components (% annual growth)
GD
P
Pri
vate
co
nsu
mp
tio
n
Go
vern
men
t
con
sum
pti
on
Fixe
d i
nve
stm
ent
Inve
nto
ries
(co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o G
DP
gro
wth
(p
pt)
)
Do
mes
tic
dem
an
d
Tota
l ex
po
rts
Tota
l im
po
rts
Net
tra
de
(co
ntr
ibu
tio
n
to G
DP g
row
th (
pp
t))
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 7
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * 1.4 2.1 - - 0.0 - - -
Barclays Capital Jul * 1.6 2.4 - - 0.1 53.0 - -
Bloomberg Economics Jul * 1.5 - - - 0.1 - - -
Capital Economics Jul * 1.6 2.4 0.0 80.4 0.1 55.0 8.8 4.0
Citigroup Jul * 1.7 2.6 7.0 - -0.1 - - -
Commerzbank Jul * 1.7 2.2 1.7 80.6 0.1 44.3 9.2 -0.8 y
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank May 1.6 2.7 - - 0.1 - - -
Goldman Sachs May 1.2 - - - 0.1 - - -
HSBC Jul * 1.7 2.5 3.8 - 0.1 - - -
ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - -
JP Morgan Jul * 2.0 - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - -
Natwest Markets Jul * 1.3 2.1 1.1 - 0.1 42.0 8.5 -
Nomura May 2.0 3.0 2.1 81.9 0.1 - - -
Pantheon May 2.0 2.9 2.2 - 0.1 - - -
Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - -
Schroders Investment Management Jun 2.3 3.5 2.8 - 0.1 - 8.0 7.4 x
Societe Generale Jul * 1.0 2.0 -1.4 - 0.1 - 8.3 -
UBS Jul * 1.6 2.4 0.3 - 0.1 - 6.8 -
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 2.2 3.8 2.4 78.6 0.5 44.9 4.3 13.8 z
Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - -
CBI Mar 2.1 4.0 2.9 78.9 1.3 - - 2.5
CEBR May 2.4 3.4 2.5 80.4 - - - -
Economic Perspectives Jul * 3.2 6.7 4.0 80.0 0.1 45.0 7.2 0.0 k
Experian Economics Jul * 1.3 2.5 3.0 80.0 0.1 44.4 - 4.9 z
EIU Jul * 0.6 1.1 13.7 - 0.1 44.0 5.7 3.0 z
Heteronomics Jul * 2.1 3.0 1.6 81.7 0.1 49.6 - -0.5 z
IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - -
ITEM Club Jul * 2.0 2.9 2.4 - 0.3 49.9 - 3.0 z
Kern Consulting Jul * 1.5 - 2.3 - 0.1 50.0 - -
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * 2.1 - 3.2 77.7 2.5 - - -
NIESR May 0.5 - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics Jul * 1.7 2.4 2.2 77.8 0.1 49.9 11.7 -3.1 k
PwC Dec - - - - - - - -
European Commission Jul * 1.7 - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun 1.1 - - - - - - -
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun 0.4 - - - - - - -
IMF Apr 1.5 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent 1.7 2.8 2.8 79.9 0.2 47.7 7.9 3.2
New (marked *) 1.7 2.7 3.0 79.6 0.2 47.7 7.8 2.7
City 1.6 2.5 2.0 81.0 0.1 48.6 8.3 3.5
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 3.2 6.7 13.7 81.9 2.5 55.0 11.7 13.8
Lowest 0.5 1.1 -1.4 77.7 -0.1 42.0 4.3 -3.1
Median 1.7 2.5 2.4 80.2 0.1 47.3 8.2 3.0
OBR - central economic scenario Jul 1.7 1.1 h 3.7 - 0.0 - 8.9 -3.8 h
CPI
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r
ag
o,
%)
RPI
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r
ag
o,
%)
Ave
rag
e ea
rnin
gs
Ste
rlin
g i
nd
ex (
Jan
20
05
=1
00
)
Off
icia
l B
an
k ra
te
(lev
el i
n Q
4,
%)
Oil p
rice
(B
ren
t, $
/bb
l)
Table 5 - 2021: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)
No
min
al
GD
P
Ho
use
pri
ce i
nfl
ati
on
(Q4
on
Q4
yea
r ag
o,
%)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 8
Forecasters and dates of forecasts
City forecasters
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul * - - - - - - - - - 150.0
Barclays Capital Jul * - 1.3 5.4 - - - - - - 150.1
Bloomberg Economics Jul * - - 6.4 - - - - - - -
Capital Economics Jul * -0.2 -0.4 6.2 1.6 - 17.0 -55.4 995.0 10.6 191.0
Citigroup Jul * - -0.1 7.8 - 12.0 - -116.3 854.0 - 176.0
Commerzbank Jul * 2.8 -5.2 7.9 2.4 10.7 4.1 -50.5 - 1.7 163.0
Daiwa Capital Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Deutsche Bank May - - 9.1 - - - - - - -
Goldman Sachs May - - 4.0 - - - - - - -
HSBC Jul * - - - - 0.2 - - - - -
ING Financial Markets Jan - - - - - - - - - -
JP Morgan Jul * - - 6.0 - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Natwest Markets Jul * 0.6 -1.6 7.2 - 5.4 - -57.0 845.0 - 120.0
Nomura May - - 6.5 - - - - 745.0 - -
Pantheon May - 3.5 6.0 - - - - 745.0 - 100.0
Santander GBM Dec - - - - - - - - - -
Schroders Investment Management Jun 5.4 1.8 6.5 2.1 - - -143.0 745.0 - 120.8
Societe Generale Jul * -2.0 1.9 5.0 - - - -101.0 745.0 0.8 156.5
UBS Jul * - - 5.0 - 6.2 - -84.0 745.0 - 133.0
Non-City forecasters
British Chambers of Commerce Jan - - - - - - - - - -
Beacon Economic Forecasting Jul * 4.0 -3.4 9.4 3.3 3.5 2.0 -96.2 745.0 4.6 211.6
Cambridge Econometrics Aug - - - - - - - - - -
CBI Mar 1.4 0.8 4.1 - - - -64.7 - - 55.7
CEBR May 1.4 0.3 6.7 - 4.4 - - - - -
Economic Perspectives Jul * 3.5 6.7 8.0 2.8 5.0 10.0 -45.0 745.0 1.8 220.0
Experian Economics Jul * 4.0 0.0 7.2 2.4 - - -103.1 - - 150.0
EIU Jul * - 3.0 - - 8.3 11.9 -93.1 - 4.8 -
Heteronomics Jul * - 1.3 5.1 - - - -26.4 800.0 5.4 177.6
IHS Markit Economics Oct - - - - - - - - - -
ITEM Club Jul * 1.3 -1.2 5.8 - 7.7 - -95.7 745.0 - 140.0
Kern Consulting Jul * - - 6.0 - 4.0 - -85.0 - - 150.0
Liverpool Macro Research Jul * - - - 1.4 - - -54.1 - - -
NIESR May - - 5.8 - - - - - - 104.7
Oxford Economics Jul * 3.2 0.3 5.0 1.9 7.8 8.7 -85.1 745.0 -2.5 91.4
PwC Dec - - - - - - - - - -
European Commission Jul * - - - - - - - - - -
OECD Single Hit Scenario Jun - - 7.8 - - - - - - -
OECD Double Hit Scenario Jun - - 10.0 - - - - - - -
IMF Apr - - 4.4 - - - - - - -
Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months (excl. OECD scenarios)
Independent 2.2 0.5 6.4 2.2 6.3 9.0 -80.7 784.5 3.4 150.3
New (marked *) 1.9 0.2 6.5 2.3 6.4 9.0 -76.5 796.4 3.4 158.7
City 1.3 0.1 6.4 2.0 6.9 10.6 -86.7 802.4 4.4 147.5
Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months
Highest 5.4 6.7 9.4 3.3 12.0 17.0 -26.4 995.0 10.6 220.0
Lowest -2.0 -5.2 4.0 1.4 0.2 2.0 -143.0 745.0 -2.5 91.4
Median 2.8 0.3 6.2 2.2 5.8 9.4 -85.1 745.0 3.2 150.0
OBR - central economic scenario Jul - - 8.8 - - - - -2.1 153.7
PSN
B
(£b
n 2
02
1-2
2)
Cu
rren
t acc
ou
nt
(£b
n)
Pro
du
ctiv
ity
(ou
tpu
t p
er
ho
ur)
Table 6 - 2021: Growth in other selected variables (% change)
Rea
l h
ou
seh
old
dis
po
sab
le i
nco
me
Em
plo
ymen
t g
row
th
Cla
iman
t
un
emp
loym
ent
(Q4
,
millio
ns)
LFS U
nem
plo
ymen
t ra
te
(Q4
)
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g o
utp
ut
Wo
rld
tra
de
in g
oo
ds
an
d s
ervi
ces
Siz
e o
f A
PF
pu
rch
ase
s
(Q4
, £
bn
)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 9
1
2
3
4
5 1.70 h
6 6.7
7
Average of independent forecasts for 2020; GDP growth, CPI and
RPI inflation and unemployment
-9.5
-8.0
-6.5
-5.0
-3.5
-2.0
-0.5
1.0
-9.5
-8.0
-6.5
-5.0
-3.5
-2.0
-0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
GDP growth (per cent)
CPI (Q4, per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
LFS unemployment rate (Q4)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 10
1
2
3
4
5
6 6.7
7
Average of independent forecasts for 2020; Current
account and PSNB (2020-21)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
PSNB (2020-21, £billion)
-90
-80
-70
-60
-90
-80
-70
-60
Current account (£billion)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 11
6.7
Independent
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; GDP growth, CPI and
RPI inflation and unemployment
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
LFS unemployment rate (Q4)
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.7
1.2
1.7
2.2
2.7
3.2
3.7
CPI (Q4, per cent)
RPI (Q4, per cent)
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
GDP growth (per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 12
6.7
Average of independent forecasts for 2021; Current account and
PSNB (2021-22)
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
Current account (£billion)
0
40
80
120
160
0
40
80
120
160
PSNB (2021-22, £billion)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 13
1
2
3
4
5 1.70 h
6 6.7
7
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; GDP
growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 monthsEE D
B BoA OEF
GS CBZ
N BLM
EC CG EP
KC UBS
Cap
E
SG P EIU ITEM
S JPM BEF
HSB
C
NW
Het BC N
IESR
CEBR
Liv
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Independent consensus
GDP growth (per cent)
Cap
E
NW
BEF CG
P Het JP
M
OEF
CBZ
BLM
SG
GS
EE
ITEM
BoA EIU
EC D
B
EP UBS
BC
HSB
C
S KC N
NIE
SR
Liv
CEBR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Independent consensus
CPI (Q4, per cent)
Cap
E
OEF
BoA
P
CG
NW CBZ
EE Het BC
SG
EIU
ITEM
BEF
EP U
BS
HSB
C
DB
S
N
CEBR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Independent Consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 14
1
2
3
4
5 1.70 h
6 6.7
7
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2020; LFS
unemployment, current account and PSNB (2020-21) made in last 3
monthsC
apE
GS U
BS
OEF
NW Het BC H
SBC
P
CEBR
JPM
N CBZ
ITEM
BLM
EE SG EP K
C CG S
DB N
IESR
BEF
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Independent Consensus
LFS Unemployment (Q4, per cent)
S
CG SG E
E ITEM
KC UB
S
EIU O
EF
BEF
Het
Liv
NW
CBZ
CEBR
EP
Cap
E
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
Independent Consensus
Current account (£billion)
NIE
SR Liv
KC BEF B
C EP C
G EE Het P S UB
S
CBZ
SG N
W ITEM
OEF
BoA
Cap
E
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2020-21, £billion)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 15
1
2
3
4
5 1.70 h
6 6.7
7
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; GDP growth,
CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3 months
BEF
CEBR
DB
EP
UB
S
BC EIU
ITEM
KC
EC N S CG
HSB
C
Liv JP
M
Het
BoA
NW
NIE
SR
GS
CBZ SG Cap
E
P
BLM
EE
OEF
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Independent consensus
GDP growth (per cent) N
IESR
EIU
SG
GS EE NW Bo
A
BLM
KC B
C
Cap
E
DB UBS
CG
HSB
C
EC CBZ
OEF JP
M
N P ITEM
Het Liv BEF S
CEBR
EP
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Independent consensus
CPI (Q4, per cent)
EIU
SG
BoA
NW C
BZ UBS
OEF
BC
Cap
E
HSB
C
EE CG D
B
P ITEM
Het
N
CEBR
S
EP B
EF
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Independent Consensus
RPI (Q4, per cent)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 16
1
2
3
4
5 1.70 h
6 6.7
7
Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2021; LFS
unemployment, current account and PSNB (2021-22) made in last 3
monthsG
S
OEF
SG UB
S
Het B
C
ITEM
NIE
SR
JPM
P KC C
apE
BLM N S
CEBR N
W
EE
CG CBZ
EP
DB B
EF
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Independent Consensus
LFS unemployment rate (Q4, per cent)
S
CG
EE SG
BEF
ITEM
EIU O
EF
KC UB
S
NW Cap
E
Liv CBZ EP
Het
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Independent Consensus
Current account (£billion)
OEF
P NIE
SR NW
S
UB
S
ITEM BoA
EE
KC
BC SG C
BZ CG Het C
apE BEF EP
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Independent Consensus
PSNB (2021-22, £billion)
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 17
BoA Bank of America - Merrill Lynch
BC Barclays Capital
BCC British Chambers of Commerce
BEF Beacon Economic Forecasting
BLM Bloomberg Economics
CapE Capital Economics
CG Citigroup
CBI Confederation of British Industry
CEBR Centre for Economics and Business Research
CBZ Commerzbank
CS Credit Suisse
DCM Daiwa Capital Markets
DB Deutsche Bank
EE Experian Economics
EC European Commission
EIU Economist Intelligence Unit
EP Economic Perspectives
FC Fathom Consulting
IHS IHS Markit Economics
GS Goldman Sachs
Het Heteronomics
HSBC HSBC Global Research
ING ING Financial Markets
IMF International Monetary Fund
ITEM EY ITEM Club
JPM JP Morgan Chase
KC Kern Consulting
Liv Liverpool Macro Research
MS Morgan Stanley
N Nomura
NIESR National Institute of Economic and Social Research
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
OEF Oxford Economic Forecasting
P Pantheon
NW NatWest Markets
Sa Santander GBM
S Schroders Investment Management
SC Scotiabank
SG Societe Generale
Annex 1: Forecasting institutions
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 18
Annex 2: Data definitions
expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)
(Total Pay)
Code BK67
House price inflation Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices
LFS unemployment rate (Q4, per cent) Labour market statistics, Table 1, Code MGSX
Domestic demand National accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM
Exports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK
Imports (goods and services) National accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL
General government consumption National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY
Gross fixed investment National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT
Change in inventories National accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU
GDP National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI
Private consumption Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,
Code ABJR+HAYO
Output Gap The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output,
CPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 2, Code D7G7
RPI (Q4) Consumer Price Indices release, Table 2, Code CZBH
Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings Labour market statistics, Table 15, Code KAB9
Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100) Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division
Official Bank Rate (Q4) (Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR
Oil price ($ per barrel) Brent crude, annual average
Nominal GDP growth National accounts, Code IHYM
RHDI National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR
Employment growth Labour market statistics, Table JOBS01, Code DYDC
Productivity Measured as output per hour worked
Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn) Labour market statistics, Table CLA01, Code BCJD
Size of APF purchases (£bn) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm
Public Sector Net Borrowing Public sector finances, Table PSA 1, Code J5II
Manufacturing Output National accounts, Table B1, Code L2KX
World trade in goods and services Annual growth of world trade in goods and services
Current account (£bn) Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 19
Annex 3: Notation used in tables
a: as a percentage of GDP
b: non-durable consumption
c: consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing
d: private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption
e: investment and stockbuilding combined
f: contribution to GDP growth - percentage points
g: end period
h: calendar year
i: financial year
j: compensation of employees/head
k: different definitions; refer to forecasters for details
l: 3 month interbank rate
m: general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding
n: average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crude
o: world trade in manufacturing
p: ILO unemployment - millions
q: Quarter on quarter a year ago
r: PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)
s: PSNB including the effect of financial interventions
t: world GDP
u: OPEC average
v: final domestic demand
w: percentage change
x: based on Halifax house price index
y: based on Nationwide house price index
z: based on UK house price index
aa: claimant unemployment rate
ab: treaty deficit
ac: Excluding Royal Mail Pension Fund & APF transfers
ad: M4 growth
ae
PSNB excludes the impact of financial sector interventions, but includes flows from APF of the Bank of England. Includes impact of Royal Mail's pension fund
af Excludes corporate bonds
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 20
Organisation Contact E-mail address Telephone number
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Robert Wood [email protected] 020 7996 7415
Barclays Capital Abbas Khan [email protected] 020 7773 3277
Beacon Economic Forecasting David B Smith [email protected] 019 2389 7885
British Chambers of Commerce Suren Thiru [email protected] 0207 654 5801
Bloomberg Economics Dan Hanson [email protected] 020 3525 9851
Cambridge Econometrics Michael Lee [email protected] 012 235 33100
Capital Economics William Ellis [email protected] 020 7823 5000
CBI Christopher Breen [email protected] 011 5852 3151
CEBR Nina Skero [email protected] -
Citigroup Ann O'Kelly [email protected] 020 7986 3297
Commerzbank Peter Dixon [email protected] 020 7653 7271
Credit Suisse Sonali Punhani [email protected] -
Daiwa Capital Markets Emily Nicol [email protected] 020 7597 8326
Deutsche Bank Sanjay Raja [email protected] 020 7545 2087
European Commission Jana Hoeffken [email protected] +32 229-83548
Economic Perspectives Tom Traill [email protected] 015 8269 6999
EIU Matthew Oxenford [email protected] -
Experian Economics Hasnath Chowdhury [email protected] -
Fathom Consulting Oliver Jones [email protected] 020 7710 0050
Goldman Sachs Andrew Benito [email protected] 020 7051 4004
Heteronomics Philip Rush [email protected] -
HSBC Daphne Forbes-Russell [email protected] -
IHS Markit Economics Raj Badiani [email protected] -
ING James Smith [email protected] 020 7767 6614
EY ITEM Club Howard Archer [email protected] -
J P Morgan Anisa Khatun [email protected] -
Kern Consulting David Kern [email protected] -
Liverpool Macro Research David Meenagh [email protected] 029 2087 5198
Morgan Stanley Jacob Nell [email protected] 020 7425 9110
NIESR Garry Young [email protected] 020 7654 1916
Nomura George Buckley [email protected] 020 7102 1800
NatWest Markets Ross Walker [email protected] 020 7085 3670
Oxford Economics Alexander Lai [email protected] 6.7
Pantheon Samuel Tombs [email protected] 020 3744 7430
PwC Barret Kupelian [email protected] 020 7213 1579
Santander GBM Stuart Green [email protected] 020 7756 6170
Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana [email protected] 020 7658 2671
Scotiabank Alan Clarke [email protected] 020 7826 5986
Societe Generale Dr Brian Hilliard [email protected] 020 7676 7165
Annex 4: Organisation contact details
Forecasts for the UK economy July 2020 21