Download - Flight Arrival Delay Prediction
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FLIGHT ARRIVAL DELAY PREDICTIONShabnam AbghariInstructor: Hamidreza Chinaei6th December 2016CKME 136 – Ryerson University
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INTRODUCTION Primary Research question
Will a specific U.S. flight arrive at the destination on-time or with delay?
Secondary Research Questions When is the best day of week/time of year to fly to minimize delays? Which carrier suffers more delays? How well does departure delay predict arrival delays?
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DATASET
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APPROACHData
Cleaning
Decriptive Analysis
Feature Selection
Model Selection
Tuning,Training, Testing
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DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
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DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
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DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
Arrival delay per airport Arrival and departure delay per airport chart
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FEATURE SELECTION
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MODEL SELECTION
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TUNING AND TRAININGM
onth
Wee
kday
Carr
ier
Desti
natio
nO
rigin
Arriv
al T
ime
Dep.
Tim
eDe
p. D
elay
Dist
ance
Trai
ning
Dat
a
Test
Dat
a
gam
ma
Cost
Test
Acc
urac
y
RMSE
70,651 127,172 0.027027 1 56.08% 66.27%70,651 127,172 0.001508 1 56.85% 66.45%9,891 70,651 0.01 1 56.11% 66.25%200,000 300,000 0.01 1 56.55% 54.29%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 77.02% 47.93%125,000 125,000 0.01 0.01 76.71% 48.26%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.34% 48.64%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.34% 48.64%12,500 12,500 0.01 0.01 76.15% 48.83%
Airline Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error RMSE Sensitivity SpecifityMQ 82.6% 81.3% 1.3% 18.69% 43.11% 87.85% 73.99%OO 81.2% 79.7% 1.5% 20.30% 45.06% 89.98% 66.20%UA 79.3% 76.7% 2.6% 23.30% 48.27% 81.97% 70.73%AA 78.4% 76.0% 2.4% 24.03% 46.42% 82.70% 69.26%WN 82.4% 74.6% 7.8% 25.38% 50.38% 68.00% 84.55%
Origin Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error RMSE Sensitivity SpecifityORD 81.10% 79.07% 2.02% 20.93% 45.75% 80.58% 77.58%DFW 81.27% 78.20% 3.07% 21.80% 44.42% 81.56% 74.83%DEN 79.17% 76.86% 2.31% 23.14% 48.10% 82.01% 71.39%ATL 79.52% 76.38% 3.14% 23.62% 48.60% 80.87% 72.00%EWR 78.07% 74.09% 3.98% 25.91% 50.43% 75.73% 72.49%
Method Train Accuracy Test Accuracy Difference Test Error Sensitivity SpecifitySVM 80.20% 77.02% 3.18% 22.98% 83.59% 68.71%
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CONCLUSION Fewer flights are delayed in April, May, June, September, October, November. Flights are less likely to arrive with delay when their departure time is between 20:00 and 05:00. Carriers with the most delayed minutes are AA (American Airlines), WN (Northwest Airline) and MQ (Envoy Air). airports with the most number of on-time flights are Atlanta, Phoenix and Kentucky Orlando, Atlanta, Dallas and Newark are the most congested airports
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CONCLUSION In almost 77% of the cases, if there is a departure delay, then there is an arrival delay or if the departure is on-time, there is no arrival delay. Our phi coefficient is 0.53 So we can say departure delay is one of the positive influencing factors on arrival delay. After modeling with 3 methods, SVM is the winning method with 80.20% training accuracy and in 76.45% of the tests, the prediction of aircrafts arriving on-time or with delay, is correctly done. Our prediction accuracy could potentially improve if we include other strong influencing factors such as “weather”.
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ANY QUESTIONS?
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THANK YOU!