Dr. G. Papaefthymiou, K. Grave 22/05/2014
Can we achieve 100% renewables? Flexibility options in the electricity system Webinar Leonardo Energy
© ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 2
© ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 3
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The key physical components of flexibility:
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Demand
Supply
Network
System
System
Demand: partly controllable
Network: ability for spatial matching
System: operational rules
Supply: controllable or intermittent (RES)
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
> Power systems are designed to ensure a spatial and temporal balancing of generation and consumption at all times.
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Definition of Power System Flexibility
> Power system flexibility represents the extent to which a power system can adapt electricity generation and consumption as needed to maintain system stability in a cost-effective manner.
> Flexibility is the ability of a power system to maintain continuous service in the face of rapid and large swings in supply or demand.
> Measures of flexibility: – Ramp rates, minimum up/down times, and start-up/shut-down
times are commonly used indicators of flexibility, measured as MW available for ramping up and down over time
> Role of power networks:
– Key enablers of flexibility, since they define the spatial dimension of balancing and thus to which extent flexibility resources can be shared between adjacent areas.
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© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 6
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 20%
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 20% 40%
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 20% 40% 60%
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 20% 40% 60% 80%
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 80%
Hours
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Hourly ramping range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d Ho
urly
Ram
ps (G
W/h
)
No RES 20% 40% 60% 80%
Hours
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | | 22/05/2014 14
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Spot
pric
e [€
/MW
h]
Gen
erat
ion
/ De
man
d [G
W]
Kernenergie Braunkohle Kohle Erdgas Öl Andere Pumpspeicher Laufwasser Saisonspeicher Wind Solar Unbekannt
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Nuclear Lignite Oil
Hydro storage Other
Natural Gas Pump storage
unknown Run of River
Export
Wholesale price
Coal
Demand
Oversupply events already happen
Oversupply event:
High RES
Low Demand
CGs at their limit
Source: EEX, ENTSO-E,
the example shows
German ex-post data
for one week in
February 2011
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Dynamic range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Syst
em N
et D
eman
d (G
W)
No RES 20% 40% 60% 80%
Hours
BASELOAD
MIDLOAD
PEAK LOAD
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Need for flexibility
> Traditional power systems: Need for flexibility because of demand variations and sudden loss of generation units – variability of demand – uncertainty of supply • Flexibility provided by supply side (power plant fleet)
> Introduction of variable RES: – Increasing the need for flexibility: Increase in variability
and uncertainty in the supply side – Reduction of the flexibility potential: VRES displace part
of the conventional generation capacity (impact on portfolios and operational)
• New flexibility options are needed
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Impacts of VRES on the flexibility timeline
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Long term planning flexibility Does my system have sufficient resources to manage operational variability?
Operational planning flexibility: How many flexibility resources should be committed to ensure secure operation?
Operational Flexibility: Which are the most economic resources?
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
Source: H. Holttinen, A. Tuohy, M. Milligan, E. Lannoye, V. Silva, S. Muller, L. Soder, The flexibility workout: Managing variable resources and assessing the need for power system modification, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, November/December 2013
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 18
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Categorisation of flexibility options
System
Energy Storage
Supply
Net-work
Demand
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Overview of flexibility options
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Supply
Demand
Energy Storage
System
Net-work
1. Flex Coal, 2. Gas
3. Oil, 4. Biogas,
5. CHP, 6. Nuclear
7. VRES
8. Pump storage,
9. (AA-)CAES
10. Flywheels
11. Batteries
12 Hydrogen (Power to Gas)
13. Demand Response
- Energy intensive industries
- Services
- Smart applications
14. Electric vehicles
15. Heat pumps
16. Resistance heating
17. Network expansion (Installation of lines)
- Add transmission capacity (HVAC /HVDC)
- Increase meshing, alleviate congestions
18. Power flow control (“smart“ devices)
- Flow control devices PST, FACTS, HVDC
19. Market Rules
20. Market integration:
- Expansion of markets
- Expansion of control zones
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 21
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Mapping of flexibility options
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Short term flexibility Long term flexibility
Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints
Mid term flexibility
SUPP
LY
Coal
Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints
Lignite
Lower ST flex potential, unit commitment constraints
CCGT Flex mode can be enhanced
Flexible – high variable costs OCGT
High variable costs, limited local supply Biogas
Stochastic behaviour – Perceptual and political concerns(waste of ´free´ energy) VRES APC
Flexible –high variable costs, emissions ICE
Nuclear
Constrained due to primary operation Large CHP
Constrained due to primary operation Micro CHP
DEM
AND
Industrial DR High potential – flexibility constrained by primary industrial process
Small scale DR High potential – flexibility depends on user behaviour
Electric Vehicles
Heat pumps
Electric heating
STO
RAG
E
Pumped Hydro Low potential for extra expansion
AA-CAES Low efficiency, restricted potential for expansion
Very high investment costs Flywheels
Technology development needed for efficiency improvement Batteries
Low efficiency – option for seasonal storage Power to gas
Constrained by transport sector/primary operation
Constrained by heat sector/primary operation
Constrained by heat sector, low efficiency
Red options are small-scale distributed technologies – communication & control infrasturcture key enabler Bold/Underscore options are mature technologies – maturity of most demand and storage options is low
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
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Market barriers
22/05/2014 23 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1 5001
Ohne EE20% EE40% EE
0
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
0% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
35%
37%
39%
41%
43%
45%
47%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
61%
63%
65%
67%
69%
71%
73%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
87%
89%
91%
93%
95%
97%
99%
Grundlasttechnologie
Mittellasttechnologie
Spitzenlasttechnologie
Cost
s [€/
kWa]
time [h] 8760 0
8760 0
Dem
and
[GW
]
0% VRES 40% VRES
Peak load technology
Middle load technology
Base load technology
20% VRES
Residual load curve shifts because of additional VRES
time [h]
Base load technology
Middle load technology
Peak load technology
0% VRES 20% VRES 40% VRES
> VRES have low marginal costs – Downward pressure to electricity prices, – Reduced full-load hours for conventional units
> Still, conventional peak power plants are needed to meet load in times of low VRES generation.
> How to incentivize flexibility? – Supply options are driven by market prices – Flexibility options are driven by market price
variability (spreads)
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
Overview
1. Definition of power system flexibility
2. Need for Flexibility
3. Overview of Flexibility Options
4. Mapping of Flexibility Options
5. Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 24
© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | |
The Flexibility Gap
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Low High
Existing Supply Flex New Supply Flex
Flex
ibili
ty
VRES
Flex
ibili
tyG
ap
Storage Flex
Demand Flex
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Conclusions and recommendations
22/05/2014 26 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
> A flexibility gap is created by the shift towards high-VRES systems
> New flexibility options in demand and storage require control and communication infrastructure
> VRES control is unavoidable for higher RES shares
> Changing the market is needed for reducing the flexibility gap
> Incentives and systems for demand management are needed
> Extending the market size is a no regret solution
© ECOFYS | | 22/05/2014 27
Questions?
> Dr. Georgios Papaefthymiou Ecofys Germany GmbH Am Karlsbad 11 10785 Berlin Germany E: [email protected] I: www.ecofys.com
Dr. G. Papaefthymiou