Download - Finance 7330 Advanced Corporate Finance Information and Financial Decisions Lecture 11 Fall 2009
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Finance 7330
Advanced Corporate Finance
Information and Financial Decisions
Lecture 11
Fall 2009
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Issues in Raising Capital
• What securities to issue
• Changes in Ownership and Control
• Alternative Marketing Options
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Market Reaction to Security Offer Announcements
» Industrial Utility
• Common Stock -3.14% -0.75%
• Preferred Stock -0.19%* 0.08%*
• Convertible Preferred -1.44% -1.38%
• Straight Debt -0.26%* -0.13%*
• Convertible Debt -2.07%
* Means not statistically significant
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Explanations
• EPS Dilution
• Price Pressure
• Optimal Capital Structure
• Information Asymmetry– Implied Cash Flow Change – Leverage Change
• Unanticipated Announcements
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EPS Dilution
• Suppose earn $1 million and have 200,000 shares, and the P/E ratio is 15. Then: EPS = $5.00
Price = $75.
What happens if you issue 50,000 new shares?
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Price Pressure
Demand and Supply
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Optimal Capital Structure
Leverage versus firm value
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Information Asymmetry
• Managers who have better information about the future of the firm than do outside stockholders, try to time the issues to take advantage of stockholders.
• Stockholders recognize this and thus react, in general, negatively to announcements of new security offerings.
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Issue Common Stock
(-1.6%)
Conv. Bond Sale to retire debt
Common/preferred E.O.
Preferred/debt E.O.
Common sale to retire debt
Call of convertible bondsCall of convertible preferred
Calls of Non-convertible bonds
Convertible preferred sale
Convertible debt sale
Investment decrease
Dividend decrease
Debt/Debt E.O. Dividend increase
Investment increase
Preferred sale
Debt sale
Common repurchase financed with debt
Debt/Common E.O.
Preferred/common E.O.
Debt/preferred E.O.
Income bond/preferred
E.O
Common Stock repurchase
(+16.2%)
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The two Basic Effects
• Cash Flow implications of a security offering
• Leverage effect of a security offering
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Cash Flow In
Leverage Decreasing
(-) (-)
Cash Flow Neutral
Leverage Decreasing
(0) (-)
Cash Flow out
Leverage Decreasing
(+) (-)
Cash Flow In
Leverage Neutral
(-) (0)
Cash flow Neutral
Leverage Neutral
(0) (0)
Cash Flow Out
Leverage Neutral (+) (0)
Cash Flow In
Leverage Increasing
(-) (+)
Cash Flow Neutral
Leverage Increasing
(0) (+)
Cash Flow Out
Leverage Increasing
(+) (+)
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Evidence
• Optimal Capital Structure Theory– No evidence from announcement effects
• Cash Flow Changes Implied – Negative returns when issued– Positive Returns when retired
• Leverage Changes• Announcement Anticipation • Ownership changes• Price Pressure – No evidence
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Organizational Changes
• Mergers (Target 20% versus Bidder 0.2%*)
• Spin off (3.4%)
• Sell off (seller: 0.7%:buyer: 0.7% )
• Go Private (30%)
• Vol. Liquidation (33%)
• Proxy Fight (1.1%)
In general, giving stockholders more transparency and control increases value
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Ownership Changes
• Tender Offer (Target 30%, Bidder 0.8%*)• Large Block Acquisitions (2.6%)• Secondary Distributions of management holdings
(-2.9%, -0.8%)• Targeted Share Repurchase (-4.8%)
Transactions that decrease ownership concentration decreases stock price, whereas increasing ownership concentration tends to increase stock price
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Marketing Securities Issues
• Rights Offering
• Underwriting– Firm commitment– Best Efforts
• Private Placement
• Shelf Registration versus conventional
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Why Underwritten Offering
• Costs 3 to 30 times what a non-underwritten offering would cost
• Comprises 80% of offerings
Why?
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For Underwritten Offerings,
• Negotiated versus competitive bids– In Negotiated Bid: Firm negotiates the
conditions of the sale directly with the underwriter
– In competitive Bid: Firm structures the deal and lets underwriter bid for the deal.
• Negotiated much more expensive but are chosen in an overwhelming number of cases
• Why?
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Why Negotiated rather than Competitive Bids?
• Variance of issuing costs higher for competitive bids
• With negotiated bids can share confidential information with underwriters that you might not want to make public
• The underwriter bridges the gap of mistrust between the market and the firm
Thus you expect that equity offerings will be done mostly with negotiated bids, but bonds done more with competitive bids.
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Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s)• What is the right price?
– Stock price behavior? (15% underpricing) i.e. there is an immediate run-up of 15% from the initial offering price
– An attempt to resolve the Uncertainty
• Best Efforts versus Firm Commitment– With firm commitment the investment bank buys the
securities directly, whereas in best effort it simply acts as agent for the firm
– Underpricing Much larger in Best Efforts where uncertainly is likely to be largest
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Overall Message
• We can think of the firm’s dealing with outside investors in a similar way to that of a used car dealer.
• Put into place mechanisms that try to mitigate the impact of the information advantage the firm has over the outside investors
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Summary
• Security Issues: Reveals information that managers know regarding the future of the firm. This information is that reflected price stockprice changes
• Organizational Change: Changes in the organization that gives more transparency and allows better measure of performance is rewarded on the market
•
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Summary
• Ownership Changes: Increased ownership concentration rewarded on the market. Allows for improved monitoring and control
• Marketing: Firms use underwriting as a means to assure outsiders that they will not take advantage of them.
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Innovation in Financial Markets
Overall Principle: All securities in an efficient (and complete) market sell at a price equal to the Present
Value of the payments to the security holders.
That is, from an Issuer's point of view, the security issuance itself is a zero NPV. From the purchasers’ point of view, the Purchase is at a zero NPV as well.
So, in order to get $1 million from security holders they must expect to receive (in PV terms) an amount equal to
$1 million in expected cash flow and option values.
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So why do we see innovative securities being issued by firms?
Markets are not efficient.
Markets are not complete.
Resolve a conflict of interest among claimants to the firm's cash flow.
"Tax or Regulatory arbitrage“
Encourage an efficient productive process.
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Markets are not efficient. The investing public can be manipulated and consistently taken advantage of.
Seems unlikely We have systems in place which are designed to protect investors
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Markets are not complete.
Firms are taking advantage of excess demand for specific securities which are not readily available elsewhere.
Caution here, you get rewarded for being the first only if investors want the security.
Example: Pepsico Zero Coupon Bonds
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Resolve a conflict of interest among claimants to the firm's cash flow.
1. Resolve the conflict of interest between outsiders and insiders.
Information conflictAgency Problem
2. Resolve the Conflict of Interest between bondholders and stockholders.
Risk Shifting (Overinvestment)Underinvestment
3. Non-investors Implicit Claims CustomersEmployees
Suppliers and distributors
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Tax or Regulatory arbitrage“
Tax Factors: The Corporate Tax Benefit The Personal Tax Penalty
Zero Coupon Bonds: Lehman Bros. ECAPS
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Accreted value of a zero-coupon bond (old analysis)
Time to Value Interest IRS
Maturity Earned Interest
10 463 37 53.7
9 500 40 53.7
8 540 43 53.7
7 583 47 53.7
6 630
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ECAPS
• 60 year maturity
• Carry routine payments
• Interest can be deferred in times of financial distress
• Yet can get tax exemption
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How do you characterize Debt?
• Unconditional promise to pay a fixed amount on demand or at a given time in the future
• Holders must be able to force payments• Holders cannot participate in management • Are stockholders separate from holders of
the issue• Is instrument treated as debt for non-tax
purposes
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Permitting a more efficient productive process.
The problem is that we have a long-term security that could get in the way of efficient production
This is a particular problem for growth companies
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Growth Companies
Large appetite for Cash
Must have Growth Opportunities
Difficult to determine Value
Based on Expectations
Makes the credibility problem more severe
Absence of Hard Assets makes it difficult to resolve Bondholders’ claims
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Bank Loans Custom Tailor ProvisionsCan be renegotiated easily
Venture Capitalists Take active Role in ManagementShift Risk to Managers
Resolves the credibility problemProvide managers incentives to do wellStage Financing
Convertible Preferred Stock
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Private Placements
Bank Loans and Venture Capital are expensiveAllows private information to be shared Renegotiation Possible Complication: Not liquid requiring restrictions
Convertible Securities
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Summary
In order to increase stockholders’ wealth, a security issue must do something other than simply act as a source of Funds
There are agency, and information problems which must be resolved in any issue
This is particularly severe for growth firms
The Security must be able to resolve these issues to be successful