Download - Final Shiloh
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Company Overview
NASDAQ Ticker SHLOSector Industrial GoodsIndustry Automotive Components (Metal Fabrication)
Market Cap $111MShares Outstanding17.34MHeadquarters Valley City, OhioEmployees 3,400Founded 1950
52 Week Range $3.06 to $14.02Current Price $6.45
P/E 12.43P/B 0.69 (ttm)P/S 0.09 (mrq)
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Recommendation: BUY
• Current Price: $6.45• Target Price: $12.03
– Upside: 86%• Growth Factors
– Stringent government emission regulations• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year
– Transitioning demand for aluminum products• Expected to grow 300% by 2020
– Organic growth• $56M in new contracts in the most recent quarter
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Executives
Ramzi Hermiz,Chief Executive Officer since 2012
Jay Potter, Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer
Kenton BednarzVice President Legal and Government Affairs
Rick CaprettaVice President Business Process
David JaegerManaging Director CastLight
Tom LuttrellSenior Vice President Human Resources, Information Technology and Supply Chain
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Industry Outlook
• Industry faced with 54.5mpg CAFE target by 2025– 4% to 5% improvement per year
• Decreased metal prices• CUVs most popular, not aerodynamic• 10M self driving cars by 2020
– Heavy computers• Aluminum in cars to increase 300% by 2020
– Aluminum saves 44 million tons of C02 emissions• 2016 US new car sales expected to grow by 500,000 units
Crossover Utility Vehicle5
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Key Statistics Industry
Metric SHLO Industry AverageMarket Cap $111M $2.87BBeta 1.99 2.16WACC 8.15% 4.01%YTD return 20% -3.69%3 year return -38.4% 40.87%5 year return -46% 23.45%Gross Margin 10.6% 23.66%Operating Margin 1.60% 9.76%Debt/Equity 198.6% 79.6%
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SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance
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Shiloh vs. Competitors
• Expansion into aluminum/magnesium products– Poland and Tennessee plants
• Amount of aluminum in cars set to increase 300% in 5 years• CAFE 54.5 MPG by 2025
– This is an unrealistic goal with traditional steel
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Business Processes
Blanking Casting
Stamping
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Powertrain Interior Frame
Chassis
Blanking Casting
Stamping
Products
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Production Capabilities
BlankLight, 5
CastLight; 7StampLight; 9
Sales & Technical Cen-ter, 4
Facilities
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Global Presence
145
3
2
Manufacturing Facilities
United States EuropeChina Mexico
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Revenue Segment by Geography
Europe; 12.07%
Mexico; 3.77%
USA; 84.16%
Sales
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Revenue Growth• CAGR: 16.4%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
Revenue Growth
Revenue
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Clients
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Revenue Breakdown
GM; 27%
Fiat Chrysler; 23%
Ford; 11%
Nissan; 9%
Mercedes; 9%
Honda; 4%
BMW; 3%Volvo; 2%
Other; 12%Clients
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Strategies for Growth
• New contracts centered on aluminum products– Lessening dependence on steel
• Service oriented business model– Retain customers– Higher profit margins
• Capitalize on auto sales expectations in 2016– +500,000 new vehicles
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DCF Base Case Assumptions
BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FRevenue Growth Rate 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.8% 4.0%Operating Margin 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 4.0%NWC as % of Revenue 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0%Terminal Growth Rate 1.25%
HISTORICAL FINANCIAL DATA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 LTMRevenue Growth Rate 11.7% 13.2% 19.5% 25.5% 26.2% NAOperating Margin 2.9% 4.1% 4.9% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6%Effective Tax Rate 40.0% 39.9% 33.0% 17.5% 28.2% 50.2%Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 4.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.6% 3.6% 2.7%NWC as % of Revenue 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 10.7% 10.3% 19.0%
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DCF Downside & Upside Assumptions
UPSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FRevenue Growth Rate 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0%Operating Margin 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7%NWC as % of Revenue 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%Terminal Growth Rate 1.5%
DOWNSIDE CASE ASSUMPTIONS 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020FRevenue Growth Rate 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%Operating Margin 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%Effective Tax Rate 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7% 31.7%Capital Expenditures as % of Revenue 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%Depreciation & Ammortization as % of Revenue 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.7%NWC as % of Revenue 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%Terminal Growth Rate 1.0%
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DCF Output
Scenario Base Upside DownsideTerminal Shares Outstanding 17 17 17 PV of Total Cash Flow 561 643 301
Value of Debt 276 276 276 Value of Cash 7 7 7 Value of Equity 292 374 31
Value of Equity per Share 16.81$ 21.54$ 1.78$ Potential Upside 216.62% 305.70% -66.44%Weight 50% 20% 30%
Target Price 13.25$ Upside/Downside 149.52%
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Multiples Model
Weights Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Company SpecificEV/Sales 20% 30% 10% 20% EPS 0.48 $ EV/EBITDA 20% 10% 30% 20% Revenue/Share 64.16 $ P/E 20% 20% 10% 30% Book Value/Share 8.13 $ Price/Cash Flow 20% 10% 30% 20% EBITDA/Share 3.35 $ Price/Book 20% 30% 20% 10% Cash Flow/Share 0.23 $
Debt/Share 17.64 $
Relative Price (Using Median) 10.89 $ 15.16 $ 10.25 $ 7.27 $ Relative Price (Using Average) 10.72 $ 15.39 $ 10.30 $ 6.47 $
Target Price 10.81 $
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Risks
• Demand of new cars– Especially in U.S.
• Volatility of metal prices– Causes inventory to lose value
• Potential success of steel innovations– Transitioning to aluminum production
• Concentrated revenue stream– 50% of revenue dependent on two customers
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Summary
• BUY: $12.03– 86% Upside
• Growth Factors– Stricter government emission regulations
• Need 5% improvement in MPG every year– Demand Transitioning to aluminum products
• Expected to grow 300% by 2020– Organic growth
• $56M in new contracts most recent quarter
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Index
• Company Overview• Recommendation: BUY• Industry Outlook • Key Statistics • SHLO: 1 Yr. Performance• Competitors• Business Process• Global• Revenue Growth • Growth• DCF output• Multiples Model• Risk• Manufacturing Facilities • SWOT
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Falling Steel Prices
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Shiloh vs. Alcoa
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Quality Service
• Best Luxury SUV– Based on:
• Innovation• Comfort• Design• Safety• Handling• Driver’s satisfaction• Value for the dollar
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Operations Overview
• Revenue 2015: $1.1B• Employees: 3,400• Geographies: 5 countries• Domestic Revenue: 84.16%• Foreign Revenue: 15.84%• Long term growth opportunities: China, Europe, and United
States• Renovating factories
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Q2 Performance 2016
2015 2016
Revenue $245M $251.1M
Gross Margin 18.7M 16M
Profit Margin 7.6% 6.4%
EBITDA 14M 8.7M
Operating Income 4,430M (2,167)M
Long Term Debt 298.87M 276.4M
Net Income (Loss) 2,443M (5,059)M
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SWOT
Location of Factor Favorable UnfavorableInternal Strengths:
Focus industry differentiation through aluminum products
Global presence Long term contracts Vast production
capabilities
Weaknesses: SEC investigation on
corporate insider trading Narrow target market Concentrated revenue
stream
External Opportunities: Increased projects to
capture growth in aluminum demand
Broad aluminum solutions to meet auto market demand
Demanding fuel efficiency standards
Popular non-aerodynamic CUVs
Record setting U.S. auto market sales
Threats: Intense Competition Decline in steel, aluminum,
and magnesium prices International business risks Operation hazards Economic/industry
downturns
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Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016Inventory 34 45 44 62 58 61 Cash + Short Term Investments 0 0 0 12 13 7 Current Assets 117 128 167 294 322 275 Total Assets 241 249 392 630 667 613 Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 1 2 2 2 Current Liabilities 81 85 117 190 197 173 Total Long Term Debt 26 21 119 268 299 276 Total Liabilities 133 142 261 185 526 478 Shareholders' Equity 108 107 131 145 141 137
Assets - Liabilities - Shareholders' Equity - - - 300 - (3) Operating Working Capital 36 43 50 94 114 97 Change in Working Capital 7 8 44 20
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Income Statement
Income Statement Data ($Millions) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current 2016Revenue 518 586 700 879 1,109 251 Cost of Goods Sold 479 535 628 799 1,022 235
Gross Income 39 51 72 80 87 16 SG&A + Other Operating Expenses 24 27 37 50 63 18
Operating Income 15 24 35 29 24 (2) Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes 13 23 32 27 12 (7) Provision for Tax Expense (Income) 5 9 11 5 3 (2) Other Income (Loss) - - - - - -
Net Income 8 14 22 22 8 (5)
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Ownership Summary
Institutional Stock ownership; 14%
Institutional Mutual Fund;
4%Mutual Fund;
20%
Insider; 16%
Other; 66%
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Manufacturing Facilities
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Manufacturing Facilities
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Manufacturing Facilities