presented to presented by
FHWA Resilience & Durability to Extreme Weather Pilot Program
One Bay Resilient Communities Working Group
Allison Yeh, AICP Hillsborough MPO
John Villeneuve, AICP Pasco MPO
Rodney Chatman, AICP Pinellas MPO
Roger Roscoe FDOT District 7
Marshall Flynn and Randy DeShazo Tampa Bay RPC
Karen Kiselewski, AICP, CS
April 4, 2019
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Agenda » Project Overview » Modeling Scenarios » System Vulnerability » Criticality Determination » Representative Projects » Adaptation Strategies » Econometric Analyses » Outreach and Coordination » Next Steps
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Overview Purpose
» Provide information and recommendations to ensure the region’s transportation system meets the near and long term functional, economic, and quality of life goals of Tampa Bay’s residents, businesses, and visitors in the face of weather and climate changes.
Infrastructure
Economic Social
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Overview Relationship to the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) » Regional vulnerability assessment of surface
transportation assets focusing on inland flooding, storm surge, and sea level rise
» MPO’s are required to adopt a new LRTP every 5 years (2045 planning horizon)
» Address Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act requirements for MPO long range transportation planning: • Consider projects/strategies to improve the resilience
and reliability of the transportation system; stormwater mitigation
• Consultation with agencies and officials responsible for natural disaster risk reduction
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Overview Sea Level
Rise – 2045 NOAA
Increased Precipitation
Storm Surge
Transportation Network –
2040+ (adopted
network and socio-economic
data
Regional Econometric
Analysis
Develop Adaptation
and Mitigation Strategies
= stakeholder review (local mitigation strategy groups, citizen advisory committees, local coordinating boards, TMA, One Bay, etc.
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Work Plan Climate & Weather
• Obtain Data • Identify Vulnerable Areas • Identify at risk Transportation
Critical Linkages
• Stakeholder Engagement
• Quantitative Analysis of Critical links
Adaptation Strategies
• Econometric Analysis • Adaptation/ Mitigation
Strategies • Include in Decision
Making
Final Report
Fall 2018
Fall 2018 Winter 2019
Winter/ Spring 2019 Summer/Fall 2019
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Modeling Scenarios
» Sea Level Rise – 2045 NOAA • High and Intermediate-Low curves.
» Storm Surge - Current • Categories 1, 3, and 5
» Sea Level Rise plus Surge • Cat 1 High, Cat 1 Int-Low, Cat 3 High, Cat 3 Int-Low
» Precipitation • 9 inches rain in 1 day; 33 inches rain in 3 days
» Transportation – 2040 • Adopted network and socio-economic data
» Econometric – 2045
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Downtown Tampa
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2045 Downtown Tampa Category 3 Storm + High SLR
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System Vulnerability 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Category 1 Storm
Category 1 Storm + Int-Low SLR
Category 1 Storm + High SLR
Category 3 Storm
Category 3 Storm + Int-Low SLR
Category 3 Storm + High SLR
Category 5 Storm
9 Inches Precipitation
33 Inches Precipitation
Impacted Lane Miles by Scenario
Hillsborough Pinellas Pasco
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US 19 and SR 54
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2045 US 19 and SR 54 Category 3 Storm + High SLR
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Incorporating stakeholder input into quantitative
assessment
Weighting facilities/locations
based on stakeholder input
Criticality Determination
Qualitative Assessment
Quantitative Assessment
Supporting Image Sources: Sustainable Convos, Northern Arizona Healthcare
• GIS-based Quantitative Analysis • Context Sensitive Criticality Construct
(Transportation disadvantaged population, social & economic importance)
• Sensitivity, exposure level and adaptive capacity
• Stakeholder and practitioner input • Persistent flooding locations • Leveraging prior planning work
(Current LRTP, hazard mitigation and local mitigation strategies)
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Criticality Factors
Factor Max
Evacuation Route 3 Projected 2040 Traffic volume 3
Proximity or primary route to major economic and social activity centers 3
Projected Population density 3 Transit Corridor 2
Part of adopted land use and/or transportation plans (ex. LRTP, TIP, SIS, National Highway
Freight Network) 2
Projected Employment density 2
Percentage of Zero-Car Households 2
Intermodal Connectivity (Port/Rail connectors) 1 Projected Truck Traffic or Freight Corridor 1
Equity areas (Environmental Justice/Disadvantaged Populations, as identified by the metropolitan planning
organizations)
1
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Representative Projects » Hillsborough
1. Gandy Blvd from 4th St to S Dale Mabry Hwy
2. Big Bend Rd from US-41 to I-75
» Pinellas 3. Gulf Boulevard from Bath
Club Circle to 125th Ave & Tom Stuart Cswy Bridge
4. Roosevelt Boulevard from Ulmerton Road to Gandy Blvd
» Pasco 5. US 19 from S.R.54 to S.R.52 6. S.R.54 from US 19 to
Suncoast Pkwy
1
2 3
4
5
6
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Proposed Strategies
Status: Cross-Check with
Toolkit Options Concern Preferred: First option to
consider if no limitations
Better: Second option to consider if first
option is not appropriate or other
limitations
Good: An additional option that may be
available and deserves
consideration
Hillsborough
1 Gandy Blvd
Low profile at entrance to bridge. Minimal
deviation to inundation potential.
Weakening of base due to
flows, extended inundation due to
low profile
Raise the profile of road near bridge entrances
Increase drainage area to increase movement
of water away from road
Harden road on sides to increase protection
from flow
2 Big Bend Rd
Minimal topography, drainage in place,
open median, treeline on sides
Surge create damage to
surface and base
Increase drainage areas and enhance swales, etc to
divert water
Enhance road surface to better resist surge
and return flow
Harden side of roads with enhanced
shoulders to protect base from erosion
Pinellas
3 Gulf Blvd
Built-up areas on both sides of road, flat topography from
beach to shopping areas
Minimal opportunity to enhance road
itself
Consider natural shoreline options such as beach
enhancement to provide topographic protection
Consider drainage option. This would have
to be consulted with engineers.
4 Roosevelt Blvd
Low profile along road, minimal median
protection, drainage swales in several
places
No protection against surge or
inundation damage
Harden asphalt surface by increasing thickness of
asphalt to reduce possibility of damage
Increase drainage along sides of roads to include
more swales and possibly culverts
Enhance median to provide erosion
protection and protect road base
Pasco
5 US 19
Both sides of road have light commercial development. West
side is open to residential areas.
Very little protection in place. Wide streets and
corridors provide little protection.
Enhance protection on the sides on the sides of roads -
consider raising profile of roads. A complementary
action would be to enhance the natural shoreline.
Harden road on sides to increase protection from
flow
Profile raised at intersections
6 S.R. 54
West end has commercial areas, but large open areas on
both sides. Evidence of road wear on
asphalt
Little protection from inundation and surge in any
area
Enhance diversion in open areas. Consider culverts
and hardening of retaining areas.
Harden medians and sides of roads with
riprap or concrete to create barriers and
diversions
Raise profile at major intersection to resist
inundation and enhance drainage for emergency purposes
Draft
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Adaptation Strategies
» Physical asset adaptations • Design changes
» Natural landscapes • Topographical changes • Vegetation • Wave mitigation
» Water management • Drainage and flood control
Source: http://flseagrant.org
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Adaptation Toolbox
Raise Road Profile
Enhance Drainage
Protect Medians
Shoulders
Enhance Road Surface or Subbase
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Adaptation Toolbox
Sources: • https://hiveminer.com/User/Aaron%20Volkening • https://www.dirtandgravel.psu.edu/sites/default/files/General%20Resources/Technical%20Bulletins/TB_Raising_Road_Profile.pdf • “Design Considerations for Embankment Protection During Road Overtopping Events,” Marr et al, University of Minnesota, MN/RC 2017-21, 2017. • Geotechnical Aspects of Pavements, Publication No. FHWA-NHI-10-009, Federal Highway Administration • http://www.tbo.com/news/business/pyramid-key-to-saving-egmont-key-20140526/ • http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/news/2012/may/23/street-runs-through-it/ • Virginia DCR Stormwater Design Specification No 7 http://vwrrc.vt.edu/swc/NonPBMPSpecsMarch11/VASWMBMPSpec7PERMEABLEPAVEMENT.html • Maccaferri Gabion Mat brocuhure • Restore America’s Estuaries, Living Shorelines – From Barriers to Opportunities,
Hardened Shoulders
Wave Attenuation
Seawalls Revetments
Living Shorelines
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Adaptation Toolbox Minimal
Topography Changes
Available Median for Alteration
Minimal Clearance to the Side of the Road
Coastal or Beach
Exposure
Existing Drainage Swales
Open Access on
Side of Roadway
Residential or
Commercial Properties
Swales or Ditches
X X O O
Retention or Detention Ponds
X X O
Enhanced Road Surface
O O
Enhanced SubSurface
O O
Hardened Shoulders
X O
Raise Profile O X Permeable Pavements
O
Protected or Depressed Medians
O
Revetments and Sea Walls
O
Wave Attenuation
O
Beach and Dune Nourishment O
Vegetation (coastal or inland)
O
O: Preferred Circumstance X: Not Applicable
Draft
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Econometric Analyses
» TranSight module of REMI model
» 2045 horizon year
» Scenarios • 6 County representative projects • Category 3 Storm + High Sea Level Rise • 9 Inches Precipitation
» Economic Impacts • Gross Domestic Product • Personal Income
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Economic Impacts of Projects Pasco 5 Yr GRP
US 19 -$2.49 M
SR 54 -$0.83 M
Pinellas 5 Yr GRP
Gulf Blvd -$4.28 M
SR 54 -$3.33 M
DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $
25
Economic Impacts of Projects Hillsborough 5 Yr GRP
Gandy -$51.03 M
Big Bend -$7.72 M
DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $
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Event Economic Impact Cat3 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Total
Hillsb -$95.44 -$18.62 -$12.11 -$6.95 -$4.05 -$2.62 -$139.79
Pasco -$8.67 -$1.80 -$1.09 -$0.57 -$0.35 -$0.29 -$12.78
Pinellas -$126.94 -$26.50 -$19.38 -$13.06 -$9.18 -$6.87 -$201.93
Tampa Bay -$231.05 -$46.92 -$32.58 -$20.58 -$13.58 -$9.78 -$354.50
9 Inches 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Total
Hillsb -$48.11 -$5.27 -$3.28 -$1.66 -$0.75 -$0.30 -$59.37
Pasco -$2.43 -$0.45 -$0.27 -$0.13 -$0.06 -$0.05 -$3.39
Pinellas -$25.08 -$4.81 -$3.40 -$2.18 -$1.43 -$1.01 -$37.91
Tampa Bay -$75.62 -$10.54 -$6.94 -$3.96 -$2.25 -$1.36 -$100.67
DRAFT All Figures Millions 2018 $
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Travel Forecast Summary
Auto VMT Auto VHT Auto Trips Truck VMT Truck VHT Truck TripsGandy Blvd from 4th St to S Dale Mabry Hwy
-39,028 -1,057 -38 -732 -20 -1
Big Bend Rd from US-41 to I-75 -3,897 106 -3 1 3 0
Gulf Boulevard from Bath Club Circle to 125th Ave & Tom Stuart Cswy Bridge
-3,877 132 -32 0 4 0
Roosevelt Boulevard from Ulmerton Road to Gandy Blvd
-4,070 35 -6 6 1 0
US 19 from S.R.54 to S.R.52 -5,434 30 -79 -23 1 -1
S.R.54 from US 19 to Suncoast Pkwy -3,842 59 -58 -19 1 -2
Category 3 Storm Plus High Sea Level Rise -109,681 -3,077 -6,725 -3,016 -84 -188
9 Inches Precipitation 16,803 3,218 -1,001 -33 105 -27
ScenariosChange (1,000s)
Daily 2045
Overall Changes
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Integration into LRTPs
» Regional and per-county representative projects
» Cost estimates for planning purposes • Projects for
investment considerations
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Outreach
One Bay Resilient Communities Working
Group Meetings
MPO Committees for 3 MPOS • Citizen Advisory Committee • Technical Advisory Committee • Transportation Disadvantaged
Coordinating Boards
Hillsborough MPO Policy Committee
Tampa Bay Management Area
Meeting
Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group (LMSWG) Meetings • Hillsborough • Pinellas • Pasco
National Sustainability Summit (Tampa, FL) • Round table discussion (April
18, 2019)
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Coordination
Resiliency & Durability to
Extreme Weather Pilot
Project
LMSWG staff from each
county
Public Works staff from
each county
FDOT D7 Community Liaison and
Drainage Engineer
FDOT D7 Gandy Blvd
PD& E Manager
University of South Florida Department
of Urban Planning
University of South Florida
School of Community
Design
Hillsborough County Perils of Flood Act
Matrix of Impacts Initiative
Pinellas County
Restore Act Vulnerability Assessment
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Next Steps
» Finalize Adaptation Strategies
» Finalize Economic Analyses
» Projects for LRTPs
» Documentation
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Category 3 on Steroids: 2045