Download - Fgya 2011 10 prsnttn fri agm fgya
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1 Foothills Growth and Yield Association
Reforestation Management in a Changing Environment
MEETING THE CHALLENGE
Foothills Research Institute Annual General Meeting
Edmonton, Alberta
October 4, 2011
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Introduction and Presentation Outline
Outline
• What’s changing in the Foothills forest environment?
• Meeting the challenge:
– What have we done so far?
– What are we going to do now?
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What’s Changing in the Foothills Forest Environment?
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Alberta’s Historical Temperature Trends
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Climate Change in the FGYA Study Area
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Mean annual temperature (°C) 1.7 2.4 0.7
Mean warmest month temperature (°C) 13.9 15.0 1.0
Mean coldest month temperature (°C) -11.7 -10.0 1.7
Mean annual precipitation (mm) 619 557 -62
Mean summer precipitation (mm) 415 364 -51
Precipitation as snow (mm) 165 151 -14
Annual heat moisture index (°C/m) 19 23 4
Summer heat moisture index (°C/m) 34 43 9
Chilling degree days (dd<0°C) 1345 1123 -223
Growing degree days (dd>5°C) 1036 1093 56
ChangeClimate
Normal
1961-1990
Study
Period
2001-2009
Climate Variable
Time Period
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Predicted Warming in the Foothills
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Predicted Warming in the Foothills
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The Wake-up Call: Mountain Pine Beetle
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Threats to Lodgepole Pine Are Not Confined to MPB
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Hylobius Root Collar Weevil
Armillaria Root Rot
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Juvenile Mortality Trends with Temperature
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Increasing Juvenile Mortality Risk?
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The Good News: Natural Regeneration
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More Good News (or Wishful Thinking?)
• Productivity increases in managed versus fire-origin lodgepole pine stands
– Udell and Dempster 1986
– Huang, Monserud et al 2004
– FGYA 2008
• Productivity increases with climate warming
– Monserud and Huang 2002
– Monserud, Yang et al 2008
– Cortini, Comeau et al 2011
– FGYA (unpublished)
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Operations: for Better or for Worse?
• Planting pine too soon after harvesting increases exposure to Hylobius
• Planting, brushing and thinning can aggravate susceptibility to Armillaria
• Reforestation to pure pine versus mixed-species may increase health risks
• Seed zone restrictions will result in stock being maladapted to future conditions
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Conflicting Expectations?
Forest productivity is increasing
The end of the Foothills Forest is in sight
16 Foothills Growth and Yield Association
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Change in a Nutshell
• Climate warming has already occurred
• Impacts on pine not confined to mountain pine beetle
• Increased stand height growth and pathogen occurrence (both climate and management implicated)
• Increasing juvenile mortality likely, directly and indirectly linked to climate
• Yields forecast to increase, but ….
• …. most of Foothills forecast to become unsuitable for lodgepole pine within one rotation
• Major uncertainty and apparent inconsistencies in long-term predictions and interpretation of research results
• Some current reforestation practices may exacerbate risks
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Meeting The Challenge
• Ignore risks and accept costs of non-adaptation?
• Adapt forest management practices to reduce risks, reduce costs and sustain healthy forests?
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What Have We Done So Far?
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Mountain Pine Beetle(Cooperative Research with the MPB Ecology Program)
• Monitoring
– network of 240 permanent sample plots established to monitor impacts of beetle attack on stand development
• Forecasting
– decision-support tool forecasting stand development following beetle attack
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Regenerated Lodgepole Pine
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• Monitoring stand development of harvest-origin lodgepole pine in relation to site, planting density, and vegetation management
• Split-plot design with replication
• 102 one-hectare plot clusters established throughout the Foothills, 2000 – 2002
V
D DV
0.1 ha assessmentplot
0.25 hatreatmentplot
Treatments:W = weedT = thin
W
T WT
Lodgepole Pine Regeneration TrialDesign of a Plot Cluster
(102 clusters installed across 5 site types at 6 planting densities, with replication)
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Forecasting Regeneration Performance
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Graphs
0
20
40
60
80
100
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Coniferous % Stocking
Percent stocking (allconifers including
under-height)
Percent stocking (allconifers 30cm+)
0
5000
10000
15000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Pine Density (trees 30cm+)
# of planted pinetrees per ha >=30cm
# of pine ingresstrees per ha >=30cm
Total # of pine treesper ha >=30cm
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Pine Density (trees 130cm+)# of planted pinetrees per ha
>=130cm
# of pine ingresstrees per ha
>=130cm
Total # of pine treesper ha >=130cm
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Pine Diameter Breast-height (DBH)
Average DBH ofplanted stock (cm)
Average DBH ofingress (cm)
Combined averagetree DBH (cm)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Pine Basal AreaBH basal area per haof planted stock (m2)
BH basal area per haof ingress (m2)
Combined total BHbasal area per ha
(m2)
0
100
200
300
400
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Age (years since harvest)
Pine Height Average height ofplanted stock (cm)
Average height ofingress (cm)
Combined averagestand height (cm)
Top height - based onRSA definition (cm)
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Linking Regeneration to Long-term Productivity
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Forecast SummaryOpening age (years since harvest) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Total age (years since germination) 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Top height - based on RSA definition (cm) 92.6 120.9 149.2 187.4 225.6 263.7 301.9 340.0 378.2
Total # of coniferous trees per ha 1,356 2,902 5,228 7,812 10,056 10,990 10,990 10,990 10,990
# of pine per ha >=30cm 770 1,602 3,838 6,755 9,397 10,606 10,773 10,839 10,857
Percent stocking (conifers 30cm+) #N/A 37.1 58.8 73.0 81.7 84.7 84.7 84.7 84.7
Pine BH basal area per ha (m2) 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.55 1.01 1.58 2.17 2.91 3.91
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What Are We Going To Do Now?
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Research and Decision Support
• Research emphasis on forecasting regeneration health, performance and risks
• Decision support for establishing and restoring healthy stands, and associated opportunities for reduction of silvicultural risks and improvement of operational effectiveness:
– Continued monitoring, data collection and analysis
– Inclusion of additional species to support species selection decisions
– Interdisciplinary discussion and cooperation
– Operational testing and validation
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Opportunities Being Explored for Risk Reduction
• Reduced reliance on early planting of lodgepole pine – adjusted planting prescriptions based on improved forecasting of
pathogen threats and natural regeneration
• Improved assurance of natural regeneration – slash re-distribution where necessary to achieve adequate cone
densities
• Reforestation of problem pine sites with alternative species or mixtures
– primarily white spruce, aspen
• Maximization of AAC contribution of non-pine species – improved identification and management of existing understories
• Adjusted deployment of planted stock – matching seed sources to out-planting sites on the basis of current
and future (versus past) climate conditions
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Acknowledgments
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