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Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Recommendation on the FFR November 2006
National RGDP Growth Rate
National Growth is Declining in this Quarter. RGDP increased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the 3rd Quarter of 2006. It had increased by 2.6% in the 2nd Quarter.
Growth Rates in RGDP By state 1997-2006
Real Gross State Product in New York and New Jersey grew at 3.2 and 2.8% annual rates, respectively, during the 2nd quarter of 2006
Unemployment-Region Specific
• In New York the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.0%, its lowest rate in the last few months (July, August and September) The rate there is lower then it is nationally.
• In New Jersey the unemployment rate hit 4.4%. It was this low a year ago in 2005. It is right in line with the national unemployment rate.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Oct-05
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct.2006
United States
New York
New Jersey
Unemployment-Region Specific
Unemployment-National
4.254.3
4.354.4
4.454.5
4.554.6
4.654.7
4.75
Quar
terly
Avg
2
Quar
terly
Avg
3
Aug. 20
06
Sept.
2006
Oct.
2006
• Nationally the unemployment rate has fallen over the month of October 2006 to 4.4%.
• The rate of unemployment was the lowest that it has been in the recent months (July, August and September 2006).
• Declining productivity raises questions about inflationary pressures at the given unemployment rate.
CPI 12th month/month Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
O-95 M-97 J-98 D-99 A-01 S-02 J-04 M-05 O-06 F-08
US CPI-U
NE Region
National and Region Specific CPI
In the 3rd Quarter the CPI dropped dramatically for the region and the United States as a whole.
NE Region CPI NE Region CPI-Difference from US CPI-U
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
O-95 M-97 J-98 D-99 A-01 S-02 J-04 M-05 O-06 F-08
The NE region is still experiencing higher prices then the rest of the nation
• Nationally: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,486,000 units.
• A 14.6 % decrease since September and is 27.4 % below the October 2005 rate of 2,046,000.
Housing Starts
