February 2019
Contents
1
Overview Performance Outlook
2 Q3/2018 & 9M/2018 Performance
1Overview
4Supplementary
Information
3Outlook 2019
Indigenous (17%)209 KBD
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 62 KBD
966 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 1,034 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 111 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Import (83%)
Crude/ Condensate951 KBD
RefinedProducts1,145 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 177 KBD
Supply Production Demand
Export
243 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan. – Sept. 2018 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of country supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,232 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 770 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, IRPC)
Other Refineries : 462 KBD(SPRC, ESSO, BCP)
RefinedProducts211 KBD
2
Crude Export 32 KBD
1,013 KBD
Overview Performance Outlook
Natural Gas Balance: Jan. – Sept. 2018
Gulf of Thailand (67%)
Power (57%)
Industry (16%)
NGV (5%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(15%)
IndustryHousehold
Transportation(7%)
Ethane/ Propane/LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
PTT the main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Demand
LNG44%
Myanmar56%
1,023 MMSCFD (22%)
Methane 1,697 MMSCFD
84 MMSCFD
Import (31%)
1,473 MMSCFD
3
PTTEP,
29%
Others,
71%
3,153 MMSCFD
Bypass Gas433
MMSCFDOnshore (2%)
Overview Performance Outlook
6 GSPsTotal Capacity
2,860 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance…
Vayupak Fund1…
Public 37%
FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+
• Foreign 14%• Thai 23%
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
Overview Performance Outlook
International and local recognition
Note: As of Oct 2018
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT
15%
85%
SET market Cap.: Bt 15,979 bn
54%19%
13%
6%5% 4%
PTT Group.: Bt 2,426 bn
2001 2017
Revenue
Net Income Affiliate
PTT
702
55%
19%
3,964
45%
81%19%
Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD) 4
1 As of 31 Dec 2018 : Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of 32.61 (End rate) 2 As of 30 Sep 20183 For the year 2017 4 2017 Annual Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of 34.1053 (Avg. rate)
12,553
58,516
2001 2017
International E&P business: 631 mmboe proved reserves in 2017 Sole operator & owner of gas transmission pipelines and Gas
Separation Plants (GSPs) in Thailand Largest refinery group in Thailand : 3 of 6 refineries Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand : 6 of 8 major
petrochemical plants Leading oil marketing business in Thailand : 1,959 retail stations2 and
40%2 of market share by sales volume International oil trading business having traded 75.6 bn liters3 in 2017 A Power Plant Flagship listed in SET: To capture opportunity in ASEAN
Fully integrated & highly diversified over entire O&G value chain
Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company
Note: As of Dec 2018
Others
PTT Group
PTT PTTEP
PTTGC
TOP
IRPC GPSC
4
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Up
str
ea
m
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Do
wn
str
ea
m
Petrochemical & Refining
PTTGC 48.65% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 48.91% Refinery Flagship
IRPC 46.27% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
Infr
astr
uctu
re
Coal
GPSC 22.58% Power Flagship
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rme
dia
te
PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for
Petrochemical’s feedstock
5
Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding* (%)
PTTGM 100% Coal Business(PTT Global Management)
Power
Overview Performance Outlook
*PTT’s holding as of Jun 30, 2018, **Transferred asset to PTTOR on July 1, 2018
PTTOR** 100% Retail service stations and commercial marketing
Overview Performance Outlook
7
BALANCING SUSTAINABILITY : PEOPLE PLANET & PROSPERITY
76
7
ContentsOverview Performance Outlook
2 Q3/2018 & 9M/2018 Performance
1Overview
4Supplementary
Information
3Outlook 2019
Key Events Update (9M18)
• PTT
• Acquisition of IRPC shares to become 48.05% (Feb)
• Split Par (Baht 10 Baht 1 per share) (Apr.)
• Transferred Oil BU’s assets to PTTOR (1st Jul)
• PTTEP
• Acquired Bongkot (22.22%) (Q3)
• Divestment 100% stakes of assets in Montara (Q2)
• PTTGC
• EHIA for Olefins Reconfiguration Project (Q1)
• TOP
• FID Clean Fuel Project : CFP (Q2)
• GPSC
• BOD approved to acquire GLOW (69.11% & tender offer 30.89%) (Q2)
• PTT
• GSP#2 (Planned T/A 16 days)
• GSP#3 (Planned T/A 18 days)
• PTTGC
• I1 (Planned Major T/A 37 days)
• TOP
• CDU 1 (Planned T/A 21 days)
Performance (9M18)
Activities Highlights :
Business Performance
Upstream PTTEP
Coal
Midstream Gas
Downstream Oil
Trading
Petchem
Refinery
Infrastructure Power
8
41.353.2 51.1
70.1
10
18%
48%
30%
4%
1,718,846
1,995,722
1,463,763
1,718,738
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
PTT
P&R
OthersPTTEP
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
EBITDA
Revenue
Revenue
312,526 345,395
251,182286,953
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
9
32%
25%6%
33%
4%
EBITDA
P&R
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
PTT - Oil
& Trading
Net Income
5%
13%
50%
31%
1%
Revenue
PTT - Oil
& Trading
PTT - Gas
OthersPTTEP
P&R
17%
14%
16%
PTT Consolidated Performance: 9M/2018
Avg. Dubai (USD/BBL) 9M/189M/17
29% 37%
Overview Performance Outlook
Net Income
EBITDA
94,040
135,187
99,816 100,146
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
44%
5%
15%
48%
31%
1%
31%
24%6%
35%
4%
7%
55%
29%
9%0.3%
11%
Stronger EBITDA and Net Income
43,003
18,5057,232 3,990
7,545
12,868
29,543
49,722 48,152
19,359 18,660
29,001 29,921
8,657 10,235
(6,923) (6,822)
9M18 Performance: Affirmed performance from core businesses
Overview Performance Outlook
PTTEPHigher tax expenseImproved ASP & Sales Vol. from oil price recovery
9M/17: - Marina Oil Sand Impairment
+ Dividends from mutual fund (EPIF)9M/18- Tax effect from oil business transferred - Loss on Montara divestment
Extra Items
Petrochem & Refining Higher stock gain Better Olefins from product price & sale vol.Aromatics decreased from BZ spreadsWeaken Mkt. GRM from higher crude premium
OilSlimmer margin and lower stock gainHigher vol. from aviation & station expansionNon-oil expansion
Gas
GSP increased vol. and LPG marginS&M margin roseTM increased from TDC vol.
TradingVol. increased from lower refineries shutdown
Margin slightly increased from rising oil price
Higher CIT
Others Affi.
* including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
99,816
MMTHB
100,146Net Income
Extra Items
0.3%
9M/17 9M/18
PTTEP
PTT
P&R 3%
4%
1%
3%
10
HO
Margin
FX & Derivatives
OPEX*Depre & Amortiza-
tionOther
Income
Int. & CIT exp.&
Other
Impair
18%
PTTOR from oil business transferredPTT NGD from higher FO priceHigher revenue from LNG Terminal 1 Phase 2Coal business from tax penalty
Others Affi
PTT EBITDA Breakdown by BU’s
Business Unit 2016 2017 YOY 9M/17 9M/18 9Mvs9M
Gas- EBITDA 72,082 89,402 24% 60,764 72,711 20%
• S&M 9,128 16,267 78% 11,549 13,712 19%
• TM 32,666 34,134 4% 25,828 26,802 4%
• GSP 23,134 29,424 27% 20,650 27,821 35%
• NGV (3,954) (4,188) (6%) (3,332) (3,563) 7%
• Others 11,108 13,765 24% 6,0691/ 7,9391/ 31%
Oil- EBITDA 22,918 19,598 (14%) 15,085 13,789 9%
Trading2/ - EBITDA 5,024 5,387 7% 3,491 4,520 29%
Total3/ 100,024 114,387 14% 79,340 91,020 15%
(Unit: MMTHB)
1/ Others include PTTLNG, PTTNGD, and PTTGL (restructured by excluding GPSC, PTTES, PTTDigital and ENCO)2/ MIS3/ Included subsidiaries from all BUs 11
Overview Performance Outlook
0.11 0.10
0.39
0.33
2017 9M/18
MMTHB
Statement of Financial Position
12
Assets/Liabilities increased :• Increase in inventory from rising oil price and
AR from higher selling price and volume• PPE increase from PTT’s pipeline#5 and PTTEP’s
acquisition Bongkot stake, investment in Zawtika and S1
• Higher current liabilities due mainly to AP from higher crude oil and PTTEP’s payable for additional Bongkot stake
• Equity increase from stronger performance
AP & Other Liabilities
PPE
Others Non-
currentAssets
AR & OtherCurrentAssets
LTLiabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
TotalEquity
Cash & ST Invest
31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14
1,805,041
1,076,906 1,102,215
373,238 387,377
386,330451,642
395,840
404,435
1,248,556 1,294,054
511,353495,770
472,405555,845
1 2 3 4 5
2,232,314
2,345,669
30 Sep. 1831 Dec. 17
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0
5%
Overview Performance Outlook
Key Financial Ratios
PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries Committed CAPEX
13
Overview Performance Outlook
Gas
Transmission
Downstream
TEG & HO & OthersPTTLNG
Other JV & wholly owned subsidiaries
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Other JV & wholly ownedsubsPTTLNG
Natural Gas
Transmission
Downstream
46,181
17,1849,450
70,501
23,798
Unit: MMTHB
66,525 MB
10,908 MB
27,527 MB
11,779 MB
15,695 MB
40%
7%
16%
7%
9%
34,680 MB
21%
Note: 2019-2023 CAPEX budget be approved by BOD on 21 Dec 18
PTT 5-Years Committed CAPEX Plan
Note: 2019-2023 committed CAPEX excluding project under study (provisional CAPEX)
Committed CAPEX during 2019-2023: ~Bt 167bn or USD 5bn
PTT Group : Upcoming Projects
14
Overview Performance Outlook
2019
2020 2021
2022 2023
2024
Erawan & BongkotDCQ 1,500 MMSCFD
PO/Polyols PO 200 KTA, Polyols 130 KTA
MTP Retrofit (Olefins Reconfiguration)
Ethylene 500 KTA, Propylene 250 KTA
Southwest Vietnam490 MMSCFD or ~80 KBOED
5th onshore pipelineLength 400 KM.
Ubon(Contract 4)25-30 KBPD
LNG Terminal 27.5 MTPA
MARS - Maximize AromaticsPX 1-1.3 MTPA, BZ 300-500 KTA
Clean Fuel Project275 400 KBD
Mozambique Area 112 MTPA or ~300 KBOED
Algeria HBR (Full Phase)50-60 KBPD
LNG Terminal 1 Extension
1.5 MTPA
7.718.75
13.43
22.40
30.57
34.1434.82
18.33
21.06
29.58
37.24 36.58
32.52
20.34
6.73
32.68
46.74
2.432.50 2.85 4.00
6.75
9.2510.50
11.50
8.00 8.5010.25
13.00 13.00 13.0011.00 10.00
16.00
20.00
0.80
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0% 43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0% 54.1%
148.6%
49.0% 42.8% 32.9%
-900.00%
-600.00%
-300.00%
0.00%
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1H/2018
25% PTT’s min. payout ratio Policy
Baht / share
DPS
Dividend payout
15
Dividend Policy & Historical PaymentsFirmly commit on dividend payment not less than 25% of net income
Overview Performance Outlook
Split par*
* Spilt par value from 10 to 1 Baht/share since 24 April 2018
10-Year Avg. 51%
Avg. since IPO42%
EPS
16
ContentsOverview Performance Outlook
2 Q3/2018 & 9M/2018 Performance
1Overview
4Supplementary
Information
3Outlook 2019
Benzene
Olefins:
• More U.S. PE cargoes to divert to SEA after start-up of new units (approx. 4 MTA) and ongoing US-China trade war
• PP demand maintain mostly from automotive and household appliance
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
PE CFR SEA PP CFR SEA300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
BZ FOB Korea PX CFR Taiwan
$/Ton $/Ton
Petrochemical Rolling as of Dec’18
Price 2018A 2019E
HDPE 1,335 1,160-1,170
PP (Film) 1,269 1,190-1,200
Price 2018A 2019E
BZ 823 795-805
PX 1,069 1,045-1,055
Source: PTT, PRISM, วผท.
Petroleum and Petrochemical Outlook
GRM
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
Dubai Mogas Gasoil-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19
Cracking Hydroskimming
$/bbl $/bbl
Price 2018A 2019E
Dubai 70 55-65
Mogas 80 65-75
Gasoil 84 70- 0
Price 2018A 2019E
Cracking 5.8 5.0-6.0
Hydro 2.5 1.0-2.0
Mogas:
• Lower supply from shifting refinery yield to maximize middle distillate ahead of IMO implementation in 2020
• Improving demand during CHY and becoming driving season
• High global inventory level
Gasoil:
• Low global inventory vs last few years• Stock buildup ahead of IMO in 2020• Higher China exports after govt. granted
more export quota • Soft demand after end of winter season
Petroleum Products GRM
Olefins Aromatics
Dubai:
• OPEC cut supply 1.2 MMBD to balance market• Political Risk; Iran sanction, Venezuela, unrest
in Libya• Surging Non-OPEC output; U.S. and Russia• Lower demand due to expectation on econ.
slowdown
GRM:
• Asian refining margins to remain at $5.0 – 6.0/bbl in 2019
• Lower gasoline & FO crack margins in 4Q19 before IMO in 2020
Aromatics:
• PX price to drop then to maintain at high level due to affirmed downstream demand and seasonal plant turnaround in 1H19
• China to lower import PX due to start-up of Zhejiang Petrochemical (4 MTA) and Hengli Group (4 MTA)• Ample BZ supply, high inventory in China while demand remains at low level
Note: Dampened Aromatics Prices during Q42018 due to supply from 1) Nghi Son (Vietnam) 2) Petro Rabigh (Saudi Arabia) 3) TPPI (Indonesia)
Overview Performance Outlook
17
18
Contents
2 Q3/2018 & 9M/2018 Performance
1Overview
4Supplementary
Information
3Outlook 2019
21
Supplementary Information
19
Financial Performance by business
Debt Profile
PTT Group Accounting Structure
Natural Gas Price Structure
Thailand Gas Demand Forecast
Gas Pipeline Business
Project Plan in EEC
P.20-36
P.37
P.38
P.39
P.40
P.41
P.42
5.60 5.59 5.54
6.24
41.17
52.26 49.87
67.85
35.9139.20 38.29
46.25
20162 20172 9M/17 9M/18
-94
-242 (291)
(81)
446
836
596
932
Liquid ($/BBL)
Gas($/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg.
($/BOE)
MMUSD
221 209 205 213
98 90 90 87
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
Liquid
Gas
KBOED
20
319
352
594
* Includes Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc.
Non-recurring*
Recurring NI
299
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
YoY
• ASP increased from the rise in oil price
• Sales vol. decreased from PTTEP Australasia & Sinphuhorm
• NI rose from higher ASP, and lower unit cost esp. from DD&A, despite impairment in Q3/17
9M/17 vs 9M/18
• ASP increased from rising in oil Price.
• Sales vol. increased from Contract 4 and MTJDA projects.
• 9M/18 NI increased from ASP & Vol vs 9M/17 recognition of impairment loss from Marina Oil sand project
300
305
2% 7% YoY
295
179% 60% YoY 851
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
27%
36%
0%
13%
9%
21%
E&P : Volume & Prices and NIImproved performance mainly from ASP and Vol. without impairment
Product Prices Sales Volume
Net Income (100%) Key Highlights
2018 Key Factors
FY2018
Avg. Sales Vol. (KBOED)
310
Avg. Gas Price ($/MMBTU)
~6.5
Unit Cost($/BOE)
~31
EBITDA margin (% of Sale Rev.)
~70-75
*Based on FY2018 Dubai oil price at 72 $ /BBL
Timeline for the Bidding of Expiring Concessions in GoT
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Data Room & Bid preparation
Minimum DCQ
• G1/61: 800MMSCFD,
• G2/61: 700MMSCFD
Facility bonusG1/61: 350 MMTHB
G2/61: 175 MMTHB
Decommissioning
Gas price formula
Commit under fixed
formula in TOR
Mozambique LNG: Stronger path towards FID by 1H2019
Production
Start-up Y2023
12 MTPA
• Legal & Contractual Framework, Marine Concessions and development plan approved
• Resettlement Commenced and site preparation underway
• 1.2 MTPA SPA signed with EDF and 0.28 MTPA signed with Tohoku Electric
• Offshore contractor selections• Project finance: To secure 2/3 leverage
(Debt 66.67/Equity33.33)• Secured sufficient non-binding HOAs to
meet target off-take volume
Geographical: SEA, Middle East and other potential areas
Target: Focus on producing or near-producing Size: 500 – 1,000 MMUSD
Execution of M&A Deal
Fasted Pre-FID Projects
Along with finalizing key terms of other pre-FID candidates
Southwest Vietnam
490 MMSCFD2024
Ubon(Contract 4)
25-30 KBOED2023
Algeria(HBR)
50-60 KBPD2024
G1/61 (Erawan)
G2/61 (Bongkot)
Co
mp
lete
dIn
-P
rog
ress
Mozambique Rovuma offshore Area 1
Must be obligated all infrastructure / facilities both new & transferred per PSC agreement
ProductionStart-up
E&P : Key factors and Project Update
21
6.2 5.8
5.6 5.4 5.5 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.6 160
219
247
296318 304 312
357 374
430 449
100
200
300
400
5
7
9
11
13
15
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
975 757 797 713
972934 946 758
869 1,043 1,013 1,220
946 996 982 1,023
715 727 721 759285 268 263 239
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
4,7224,762
%QoQ %YoY
FO 4% 34%
PooledPrice 2% 14%
12.0 12.2 12.112.8
7.68 6.75 6.83 6.20
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
Gas BU: Rising pooled price, NG vol. maintained
NG Price VS FO NG Customer Breakdown
$/MMBTU
EGAT (15%)
IPP (16%)
SPP (26%)
GSP (22%)
Industry (16%)
NGV (5%)
MMSCFD
4,725
NGV Price/Sales Volume
YoY
• Overall NG sales slightly decreased mainly from lower power demand offsetting with higher GSP sales volume
• NGV vol. dropped from demand switching to diesel and gasoline
9M/18 vs 9M/17
• NG sales vol. maintained from slightly lower power demand vs higher GSP and Industry volume
• NGV vol. dropped from demand switching to diesel
Key Highlights
K.Ton/Day
22
$/Ton
Fuel Oil*
* MOPS HSFO 180 CST
Avg. Pooled gas price
0.2%YoY
•
THB/KGNGV Avg. price 6% YoY
9% YoY12% YoY
1% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
2% YoY
4,712
1,103
1,153 1,139 1,134 1,176
1,133 1,138 1,226
1,379
1,384
1,350
Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18
9,128 16,267 11,549 13,712
32,666 34,134
25,828 26,802
23,134
29,424
20,650 27,821
(3,954) (4,188)(3,332) (3,563)
11,108
13,765
6,069
7,939
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
2794 29192,179 2,365
721 688
501 485
2059 2333
1,720 1,793
856827
573 671
24.544
32 35
2016 2017 9M17 9M/18
GSP Sales Volume
LPG (44%)
kTon
6,455
6% QoQ
431 427 420 378 375 386 395 401 407 420
416
309 297 288247 253 262 259 269
282 286 277
60,764
5,349
Propane (12%)
Gas - EBITDA
MMTHB
Others
TM
GSP
89,402
72,082
S&M
NGV
7% YoY
Gas BU: Performance improved in almost segments
NGL (9%)
Ethane (34%)
Key Highlights
GSP Feed Cost vs Petrochem price
USD/Ton
Feed Cost*
LPG cost of GSP
* Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume
Pentane (1%)
HDPE
20% YoY YoY: GAS EBITDA improved in almost segments, despite NGV
• GSP greatly improved from lower feed cost, higher sales volume and selling prices
• S&M margin increased
9M18 vs 9M17:
GAS EBITDA improved mainly from GSP and S&M
• GSP improved from increased vol. & selling prices
• TM increased due to rising demand mainly from SPP
• S&M margin increased from higher avg. selling prices and gas vol.
• NGV higher loss from rising feed gas cost
• PTTLNG revenue from LNG terminal 1 ph#2 started since Mar 18
24% QoQ
6,811
%QoQ %YoY
HDPE 3% 19%
LPG cost of GSP 1% 8%
Feed Cost 3% 9%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
5,005
72,711
23
Gas Business Roadmap
24
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Thailand Gas Demand Outlook
LNG new project LNG1 Phase#2 LNG1 – Extension LNG Terminal 2
10.0 11.5 11.5 19.0
New SupplyAdditional capacity (mmscfd)
Bongkot
210
Major Project : CODCompressor
WangnoiNakhon
Ratchsima
4,182
5th pipelineRA#6 Pipeline
4,702Cum. Pipeline Length (Km)
4th onshoreMidline Comp
GSP project: COD
2,860 2,860
GSP#6Debottleneck
2,860 2,8602,860 2,860
GSP#6Debottleneck
Cum. GSP Production (mmscfd)
Cum. Capacity (MTA) 10.0 11.5
Natural Gas growth upon Government fuel diversification policy
for power generation
Natural Gas be the most important source of energywith highest portion among other fuels
PDP 2015 NEW (Draft*) – PDP
37%
Supply of power plants by type of fuels
Unit: GWh
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Thailand Power Development Plan
37%
Lignite
Import Coal
Natural Gas
Import Hydro
Domestic Hydro
Renewable
Energy Efficiency
53%
6%
18%
2%
9%
7%
5%
63%
8%
3%
10%
2%
15%
62%
11%
2%
9%
8%
8%
8%
58%
11%
10%
2%
11%
60%
13%
9%
7%
3%8%
Source: Ministry of Energy * Approved by the NEPC on Jan 24,2018
25
Unit: GWh
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18
3,259 3,615 2,752 3,046
19,659 15,983
12,333 10,743
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
0.78 0.91 0.95 0.93
26,464 26,006
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
YoY 9Mvs9M
Oil 19 % 13%
Non-oil 11% 11%
Total 14% 9%
Oil BU & PTTOR Soften performance from lower margin despite higher volume
MMTHB
THB/Liter
26
Oil
Non-Oil3
Gross margin1/Sales volume2
MM Liter
1/Excluded Non-oil, stock gain/loss, non-recurring item 2/PTT only
5,682 2,201 40 470
Petroleum Prices
Stock Gain/Loss(MMTHB)
USD/BBL
(Average Prices)
Key Highlights
YoY
• Higher gross margin from
- strong gasoline demand
- Aviation fuel price structure
• Lower EBITDA mainly from lower stock gain despite higher margins and non-oil
9M/18 vs 9M/17
• Sales vol. increased from - Aviation fuel after ICAO lifts red flag & economic expansion- Gasoline & Diesel from stations’ expansion
• Lower gross margin mainly from Aviation fuel • Decreased EBITDA from declining margin and lower stock
gain, as well as higher SG&A
13,789
3/ Domestic only
Oil - EBITDA
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
2%
15,085
2%
2%17%
19,363 19,809
Q2/18 Q3/18 QoQ
Kerosene 7.3 . 2%
Gasoline 4.2 5. 2%
Diesel 6.7 .7 2%
Dubai 72.1 74.3 3%
22,91819,598
5,024 5,387 3,491
4,520
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
74,627 75,638
56,107 59,457
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
YoY
• Sales volume improved from Western demand (crude and
petchem)
• EBITDA increased mainly from higher domestic condensate margin
as well as higher trading volume in new region
9M/17 vs 9M/18
• Sales vol. increased due to higher crude & condensate imports
mainly from lower major Turnaround of refineries.
• Gross margin & EBITDA increased from domestic condensate and
Out –Out transaction
0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
3 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries: FX Adjusted + derivatives
MMTHB
MM LiterGross Margin (THB/Liter)
2 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries
27
1 PTT Trading BU + trading subsidiaries: FX Adjusted + derivatives
Trading BU: Improved performance mainly from Domestic Condensate
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
6% 1 % YoY
29% 7% YoY
10%0% YoY
QoQ
•
•
•••
Gross Margin1 Sales Volume2
Trading – EBITDA3 Key Highlights
2830
Net Income (100%)
P&R BUStrong performance from refinery and Olefins
Aromatics
GRM
*A/C GRM and A/C GIM include effect from hedging gain/(loss)
Olefins
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
On Jul 3, 2017 PTT transferred HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC and the Projects’ Study Results of PTTPMMA to PTTGC
4.49 5.74 5.81
4.76 5.12
6.40 5.94 6.47
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
YoY 9Mvs9M
A/C GRM 25% 9%
41.353.2
51.170.1
USD/BBL
A/C GRM*Mkt
GRM
Dubai
1.24 1.05 0.33 1.71StockGain/Loss
1,132 1,168 1,149
1,371
1,046
1,155 1,141
1,287
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
90% 96% 93%101%
YoY 9Mvs9M
HDPE 3% 19%
PP 10% 13%
Olefins U-Rate
USD/Ton
PPPrice
82% 80% 75%93%
395 380 388 412
262
357 372
248
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
BZ-Cond
PX-Cond
USD/Ton
BTXU-Rate
QoQ YoY
PX 4% 6%
BZ 36% 33%
21,222 24,856 17,929
14,961
9,721 11,354
6,841 9,362
25,602
39,298
29,740 36,009
-
-
-723
2,684
5,480 282
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
62,549
81,049
TOP
Unit : MMTHB
59,990
PTTGC
Others
1%
30%
60,614
P&R : Projects Update
2019 2020
UHV Catalyst Cooler
ME plants2PO/Polyols
MTP Retrofit
ME plants2
UHV Catalyst Cooler
PO/Polyols
MTP Retrofit(Olefins
Reconfiguration)
CFP(Clean Fuel Project)
MARS (Maximize Aromatics)
Objective/Capacity
• Methyl Ester (200 KTA)
• Flexibility of crude selection
• Lower utility cost from cracking heavy crude
• Create value added in Polyurethane chain
• PO (200 KTA)
• Polyols (130 KTA)
• Ethylene (500 KTA)
• Propylene (250 KTA)
• Upgrade lower value product higher value
product
• Ability to process heavier (cheaper) crude oil
• Utilize excess Naphtha/ Toluene/ Xylene as feedstock to maximize PX & BZ products
• Paraxylene(1,000-1,300 KTA)
• Benzene(300 - 500 KTA)
• Other Products (200 KTA)
CAPEX 47 MMUSD1,320 MB
(32 MMUSD)888 MMUSD 985 MMUSD 4,825 MMUSD 1.0-1.1 Bn.USD
COD Q1/19 Q1/192020
(FID Aug’17)2H/20
(FID Jan’1 )Q1/23
(FID Jul’1 )Q1/23
2023
CFP
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Maximize Aromatics
29
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR Performance declined from one-off tax penalty despite better coal price
Net income
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
Avg. Selling Price1/ & Cash cost1/
YoY : Perf. improved from better coal price
• Cash cost increased from royalties following coal price
• Sales volume declined mainly from mud slide in Sebuku
• Performance improved mainly from higher selling price
9M/17 vs 9M/18: Perf. declined from tax issue, despite better margin
• Cash cost increased from royalties following coal price• Sales vol. increased from higher contracted vol. and Sebuku
mudslide in 9M/17• Better margin from higher price & vol., despite higher cash cost
1/Average Calorific value ~ 5,450 kcal/kg
30
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
2/Non-recurring items include the settlement of past’s tax lawsuit
47
70 69
80
36
50 4756
66
88 85
108
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
USD/Ton
Avg. Selling Price
Total Cash Costs
New Castle
16%
27%
19%38%
49%
33%
7,874 8,187
5,764 5,959
1,941 119
71 156
9,815
8,306
5,835 6,115
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
kTon
Jembayan
Sebuku
5%
15%
20
107
62 67
(5) (18)
15
(12)
MMUSD>100%
77
Operating NI
NI 8915
Non-recurring items2/
29%
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
55
2,700
3,175
2,453
2,873
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
Hydro Electricity85%
Cogen: SPP15%
Combine Cycle : IPP
60%
Cogen: SPP 36%
Renewable4%
Combined heat : VSPP
0%
Net Income (100%)Sales Volume*
Key Highlights
MMTHBGWh
‘000 Ton
Committed Capacity
ELECTRICITY1,940 MW (operate 1,410 MW)
STEAM 1,585 T/H(operate 1,446 T/H)
INDUSTRIAL WATER2,080 Cu.m./H
CHILLED WATER12,000 RT
Operating1,530 MW
Underconstruction
410 MW
Present 2020
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
*sales vol. of Sriracha, Rayong, IRPC-CP, ISP1 power plants
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Enhanced performance mainly from full operation of IRPC-CP
YoY
• Lower power sales volume from Sriracha power plant lower dispatch
• Lower steam volume from customers planned S/D and S/D for IRPC-CP commissioning
• NI rose due to lower NG cost, IRPC-CP and ISP1 started COD and higher share of profit from affiliates.
9M/17 vs 9M/18
• Sales volume increased from full phase operation in 2018 of IRPC-CP COD in Nov. 17 and ISP1 COD in Dec. 17
• NI increased from full operation of IRPC-CP & ISP1 and increase of Ft rate 31
6,489 5,881
3,472 4,257
6,694 6,429
4,713 4,936
2016 2017 9M/17 9M/18
Power Steam
18% 17%YoY 9M vs 9M
Power 9% 23%
Steam 4% 5%
YoY 9M vs 9M
Power 9% 23%
Steam 4% 5%
Committed Capacity SCOD in 2020
E & P Gas Oil & Trading P&R Others
Xayaburi Power Company Limited (XPCL)
Capacity: 1,220 MWProgress: 96%
Nam Lik 1 Power (NL1PC)Capacity: 63.8 MW
Progress: 95%
CUP4 Expansion ProjectCapacity: Power 45 MW
and Steam 70 TPH (Phase1)Progress: 40%
NNEG Expansion Project Capacity: Power 60 MW
and Steam 10 TPHProgress: EPC contractor has been awarded on 30 September 2018
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Upcoming Projects to Bolster Future Growth
GPSC Strategic Direction and Growth Strategy
32
PTT Group Performance : 3Q2018 (QoQ)
33** Since Feb 21,2018, PTT hold 48.05% in IRPC
1/ On Jul 3, 2017 PTT transferred all stake in HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC and the Projects’ Study Results of PTTPMMA to PTTGC2/ Including BSA, PTT TCC and RTC
% PTT
holding
Q2/18 Q3/18 QoQ Q2/18 Q3/18 QoQ
PTT Net operating Income 15,423 13,534 -12% 15,423 13,534 -12%
E&P - PTTEP 3,590 10,401 >100% 65.29% 2,352 6,792 >100%
Petrochemical 10,918 12,888 18% 5,663 6,259 11%
- PTTGC1/ 10,827 12,793 18% 48.65% 5,573 6,164 11%
- PTTTANK and others 91 95 4% 90 95 6%
Refining 8,844 7,119 -20% 3,866 3,518 -9%
- TOP 4,795 4,558 -5% 48.91% 2,287 2,078 -9%
- IRPC 4,049 2,561 -37% 46.27% 1,579 1,440 -9%
Others Business 5,730 7,633 33% 3,941 5,896 50%
Inter - PTTER/PTTGE/PTTGM 911 872 -4% 100% 876 796 -9%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/PTTGL/TTM(T)/TTM(M) 2,102 2,340 11% 1,802 1,764 -2%
Utilities - GPSC/TP/DCAP/PTTES/PTTDIGITAL/ENCO 1,550 1,457 -6% 385 372 -3%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/PTTOR/THAPPLINE/Others2/ 1,167 2,964 >100% 878 2,964 >100%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 29,082 38,041 31% 15,822 22,465 42%
Tax adjustment for gain on disposal of investment and asset (1,216) (5,670) >(100%) (1,216) (5,670) >(100%)
PTT Conso. Net Income 43,289 45,905 6% 30,029 30,329 1%
Unit : MMTHB
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
3636
PTT Group Performance : 9M/2018 (YoY)
34
1/ On Jul 3, 2017 PTT transferred all stake in HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC and the Projects’ Study Results of PTTPMMA to PTTGC2/ Including BSA, PTT TCC and RTC3/ PTT Tank and others
% PTT
holding
9M/17 9M/18 YoY 9M/17 9M/18 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 54,982 48,152 -12% 54,982 48,152 -12%
E&P - PTTEP 11,138 27,372 >100% 65.29% 7,278 17,871 >100%
Petrochemical 35,220 36,290 3% 17,394 18,172 4%
- PTTGC1/ 29,740 36,008 21% 48.65% 14,759 17,889 21%
'- PTTTANK/HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA1/ 5,480 282 -95% 2,635 283 -89%
Refining 24,770 24,323 -2% 11,607 11,749 1%
- TOP 17,929 14,961 -17% 48.91% 8,672 7,215 -17%
- IRPC 6,841 9,362 37% 46.27% 2,935 4,534 54%
Others Business 13,705 22,801 66% 8,645 11,272 30%
Inter - PTTER/PTTGE/PTTGM 1,658 7,258 >100% 100% 1,603 853 -47%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/PTTGL/TTM(T)/TTM(M) 5,593 6,330 13% 4,401 5,055 15%
Utilities - GPSC/TP/DCAP/PTTES/PTTDIGITAL/ENCO 4,118 4,401 7% 1,050 1,106 5%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/PTTOR/THAPPLINE/Others2/ 2,336 4,812 >100% 1,591 4,258 >100%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 84,833 110,786 31% 44,924 59,064 31%
Tax adjustment for gain on disposal of investment and asset (90) (7,070) >(100%) (90) (7,070) >(100%)
PTT Conso. Net Income 139,725 151,868 9% 99,816 100,146 0%
Unit : MMTHB
Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT
3/
Free Cash flow
103,115 199,401
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
195,453 277,518
Ending cash incl. S/T investment
395,840 404,434
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
215,566 166,189
Cash In/(Out)
(20,113) 111,329
Adjustment
(10,459) 813
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : 9M2018
35
Operating9M/2017 9M/2018
205,951 176,137
Net Income 99,816 100,146
Changes in assets & liabilities (19,582) (70,265)
Income Tax (32,545) (43,608)
Non-Cash Adjustment 158,262 189,864
Investing9M/2017 9M/2018
(102,836) 23,264
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (77,069) (76,825)
Investment (Sub. & Affiliates & others) (23,905) (21,239)
Current investment (5,185) 109,632
Dividend/Interest Received 12,634 10,031
Others (9,311) 1,665
Financing (112,769) ( , 5)
Repayment Loans (62,029) (93,325)
Interest paid (23,237) (20,191)
Dividend paid (73,320) (61,354)
Received from share issue 3,056 52
Received from loans/Bonds 12,366 95,135
Others 30,395 (9,202)
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : 9M2018
36
Free Cash Flow
52,209 117,781
Adjustment
111 (268)
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
62,648 38,692
Cash In/(Out)
(23,675) 65,954
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
38,973 104,646
Ending cash incl. S/T investment
106,748 133,197
Operating9M/2017 9M/201
54,602 46,640
Net Income 83,768 153,147
Changes in assets & liabilities (11,924) (21,555)
Income Tax (9,240) (12,000)
Non-Cash Adjustment (8,002) (72,952)
Investing9M/2017 9M/201
(2,393) 71,141
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (16,484) 106,950
Investment (Sub.& Affiliates & Others) (34,224) (119,104)
Current investment (20,618) 45,554
Dividend/Interest Received 39,912 36,374
Others 29,021 1,368
Financing (75,995) (51,559)
Repayment Loans (18,520) (11,431)
Interest paid (8,579) (6,924)
Dividend paid (51,413) (34,258)
Received from loans/Bonds 2,517 1,054
39
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
ConsolidatedPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts ~ 5.25%: % fixed-rate ~ 71%: Avg. debt life ~ 8.59 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.46%: % fixed-rate ~ 65%: Avg. debt life ~ 6.99 years
147,592 129,279 129,265
325,524 311,317 336,02681,245
45,088 34,583
250,968194,284 154,640
228,837
174,367 163,848
576,492
505,601 490,666
31 Dec 16 31 Dec 17 30 Sep 18 31 Dec 16 31 Dec 17 30 Sep 18
USD&Others
THB
(36%)
(64%)
(21%)
(79%)
(44%)
(56%)
(32%)
(68%)
Note : Data as of 30 Sep 18 (THB/USD = 32.5767 THB/JPY = 0.289234 Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.
(26%)
(74%)
(38%)
(62%)
37
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Oil & Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTOR 100.00%
Others CostPetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%
Others
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%PTT Global LNG Co., Ltd PTTGL 50.00%
Joint Ventures EquityTrans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 48.65%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%
Refining Subsidiaries ConsolidateThai Oil Plc.* TOP 48.91%IRPC Plc.* IRPC 46.27%
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Digital Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTT DIGITAL 20.00%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00%Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd.* BSA 100.00%PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%PTT Treasury Center Co. Ltd PTT TCC 100.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries ConsolidateGlobal Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58%Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00%
Joint Ventures EquityDistrict Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 30 Sep 2018
International Investment
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%PTT Global Management Co., Ltd. PTTGM 100.00%
Others CostSarn Palung Social Enterprise Company Ltd. SPSE 20.00%Baania (Thailand) Company Ltd. Baania 3.57%
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
38
Power Business Group
Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%PTT International Trading London Ltd PTTTLDN 100.00%
PTT Group Accounting Structure
4141
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan.-Sept. 2018
CustomersSales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs+ +
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
Reference to Naphtha market price
At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months)
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
*
*
*
* EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than 2.1525 and 11.4759 bt/mmbtu respectively
39
• Since 16 Jul. 16, Retail prices are set to reflect NG cost but operating cost is still regulated
• Since 5 Sept, 17, Allowance to adjusted +0.46 Baht/Kg. for gas quality improvement cost
• Since 16 May 18, Allowance to adjusted Retail price of NGV public bus to 10.62 Baht/Kg.
• NGV retail Price as of 30 Sep 18 = 15.13 Baht/Kg.
GSP 22%
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Industry 16%
Ethane, Propane, LPG
NGL
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Power Producers 57%
: EGAT 15%
: IPP 16%
: SPP 26%
NGV 5%
Natural GasNG Growth upon Government fuel diversification policy for power generation
40
Thailand Gas DemandReplace :Coal Krabi (800 MW), EE 30%
Thailand Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2018-2032): Total ~ 0.1%: Power ~ 2%: GSP ~ -7%: Industry ~ 1%: NGV ~ -6%
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (~ 4,000 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
41
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Gas Separation Plant Capacity
Unit 1 420 MMcf/d
Unit 2 and 3 820 MMcf/d
Unit 4 170 MMcf/d
Unit 5 570 MMcf/d
Unit 6 880 MMcf/d
Driving the country towards EEC and Economic ExpansionOverview Performance Outlook
5 Years CAPEX plan (Y2019 – 2023) Total Baht ~ 264 Bn.
EECi @ Wangchan Valley
New LNG receiving Terminal
5th onshore pipeline
Olefin Reconfiguration
Polyol/ PU System
Clean Fuel Project
Jetty Expansion
Ultra Clean fuel project
Gas Distribution system
Cold Energy Utilization
Paraxylene
1
2
3
4
5
7
6
8
9
10
11
2
3
7 811
42
Thank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Disclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events, financial performance and result of PTT’s activities. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.
The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTT does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations. 45
43
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948
Website: http://www.pttplc.com
E-mail: [email protected]