February 1 – February 15
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CONTENTS
Foreword (General Observations)………………………………………....3
Americas………………………………………………………………………..6
Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………..13
China and East Asia…………………………………………………………17
Europe…………………………………………………………………….........19
Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………23
South Asia……………………………………………………………………..31
United Nations………………………………………………………………….37
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Area Briefs: 1-15 February 2017
General Observations
Pakistan
A new wave of terrorism broke out across the country in the second week of February. In
Karachi a television DSNG van was attacked resulting in the death of a cameraman. The
next day, 13 February, a suicide bomber detonated himself in the midst of a public protest
by Pharmacists in front of the Punjab Assembly in Lahore, with a rising death toll of 18,
including two senior police officials. The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, an Afghanistan-based faction
of the Tehreek-i-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for this attack. A day
later, in Peshawar, judicial officers were targeted by terrorists. The series of attacks
across the country in the first fortnight of February clearly cast doubts on claims that
terrorism was on the wane after the success of the FATA-based military operation Zarb-
e-Azb. These terrorist attacks will also make it more difficult for the political parties to
refuse an extension to the military courts extension that is being demanded by the
government and the military.
India continued to stonewall on Pakistan’s request to the Indian government to produce
“concrete evidence” against Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JuD) Chief Hafiz Saeed who has been
placed under house arrest. India wants Pakistan to proceed against him as the alleged
mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, but so far it has refused to cooperate with the
Pakistani authorities in terms of giving concrete evidence to back their allegations.
On the strategic security front, Pakistan has become more vocal in exposing India’s
aggressive military designs in the region. Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz declared
that India had destabilised the Indian Ocean by instigating its nuclearisation. As a result
of this, Pakistan was being compelled to counter this new dimension of the Indian nuclear
threat, in order to maintain peace in the Indian Ocean Region. India’s notable rise in its
naval expenditure, the commissioning into service of its nuclear powered submarine
along with the development of its SLBMs, aircraft carriers and stealth frigates had upped
the military ante in the Indian Ocean.
Pakistan also held a multilateral Aman 17 naval exercise in the Arabian Sea with 37
countries participating, including China, Russia and the USA in the second week of
February. For Pakistan the focus on its naval forces is a welcome development –
especially since it has tested its sea-launched cruise missile thereby signaling the
acquisition of second-strike capability.
The refusal of a US visa to the Deputy Chairman of the Senate of Pakistan revealed once
again the US’s hostile policy towards issuing Pakistanis visas. The Senate Chairman took
a firm stance on this issue and decided to boycott the UN meeting in New York while
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declaring that no US Senate delegation would be welcome in Pakistan. Unfortunately the
government kept an inexplicable silence on this issue. At a time when the Trump
Administration has shown an open hostility towards Muslim states and Islam, the
Pakistan government’s silence on the visa issue is disturbing.
International
India’s militarisation continued unabated. On 11 February, it successfully tested a high-
altitude interceptor missile, moving it further down the path of achieving a two-layered
Ballistic Missile Defence system that it has been developing with technological inputs
from the US and Israel.
Afghanistan continued to suffer terrorist attacks with a bomb blast outside the Supreme
Court in Kabul on 7 February killing 20 people and, on the same day, a bombing in Farah
province, which killed a senior district official. The Afghan Taliban claimed
responsibility for these attacks.
Trump had to backtrack on his earlier public rejection of the traditional US One China
policy and in a call to Chinese President Xi Jinping, he committed to continuing the “One
China” policy.
Meanwhile President Trump continued to publicly lash out at the US intelligence
community and the media labeling the latter as liars. His Administration has yet to evolve
a semblance of order especially with Trump himself continuing to tweet his views on
policy issues – which often have to be toned down or backtracked later.
US Defence Secretary Mattis also informed NATO members that they would have to
increase their defence spending or the US would curtail its NATO commitments.
Trump also upped the ante in the South China Sea when, while hosting Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe, he pledged support to Japanese territorial claims in the South China
Sea. Clearly, the conflict in the South China Sea is going to get aggravated under the new
US Administration.
The Iran-US relationship also seems headed towards greater schisms with a strong
Iranian reaction to the US putting Iran “on notice” for its missile tests. Iran’s Supreme
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Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed this US move and referred to Trump as the
“real face” of American corruption. Interestingly, the White House admitted that the
Iranian missile tests were not a breach of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement but were a
violation of “the spirit” of this agreement.
Given the close ties of Trump’s son-in-law to Israel and Trump’s strong pubic posture on
Israel, including his moving away from the US commitment to a “two-state” solution, it
was not surprising to see Israel move aggressively on expanding its settlements on
Palestinian territories.
Israel has also become more aggressive in asking states like the UK to stop funding
NGOs that it regards as “hostile” – including the NGO Breaking the Silence.
In the UN also, the Trump factor can already be felt on a number of issues. For instance,
the US opposed the appointment of former Palestinian premier Salam Fayyad as a special
envoy to Libya – who had been selected by the new UN Secretary General Gutteres. The
UN SG expressed his “deep regret” on this US move.
--- Dr Shireen M Mazari
Director General
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AMERICAS
Domestic
On February 15, President Donald Trump lashed out at the US intelligence community and
media after reports emerged of contacts between members of his team and Russia.
Trump accused the National Security Agency (NSA) and FBI of giving out information illegally.
According to reports, top Trump aides were in constant communication with Russian officials
during the election campaign. Intelligence officials had previously said they believed Russia tried
to influence the vote in favour of Trump.
According to the BBC on February 15, leading members of the Republican Party called for
a wider investigation into former national security adviser Micheal Flynn’s links with
Russia.
Flynn resigned on February 13, 2017 over claims that he discussed sanctions with Russia before
Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2017. According to a White House spokesman
Trump knew days earlier there were problems with the Russia phone calls. Some senior
Republicans however have responded coldly to calls for an independent investigation. The
developments followed a New York Times report according to which phone records and
intercepted calls show members of Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other members of
the Trump team, “had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year
before the election”.
On February 14, authorities in California lifted an evacuation order for 180,000 residents
living below the Oroville dam as fear of spillage decreased.
Butte County officials allowed residents to return to their homes but told them to remain vigilant.
County homes were in danger of drowning after the 770ft high spillways of the Dam were found
damaged. Authorities have now managed to lower the water level in the dam. Sheriff Kory Honea
of the Butte County said the earlier evacuation order on February 12, 2017 had been changed to
an evacuation warning.
According to The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) on February 14, Senior White
House adviser Kellyanne Conway should be investigated over her promotion of Ivanka
Trump’s products.
The (OGE) said Conway violated ethics rules, by urging people to buy the president’s daughter’s
range on Fox News. Her comments prompted complaints from both Democrats and Republicans.
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The OGE is an independent body. It has advised the White House to investigate and possibly
discipline Conway. The White House has so far supported Conway, who urged people to buy
Ivanka Trump’s clothes after retailer Nordstrom dropped her clothing line, citing a lack of sales.
On February 13, US national security adviser Michael T. Flynn resigned after reports
emerged that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and other top White House officials
about his conversations with the Russian ambassador to the United States.
Flynn acknowledged providing “incomplete information” about a telephone call he had with the
Russian ambassador in December 2016 about American sanctions against Russia. He had
previously denied that he had any substantive conversations with Ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak,
and Mike Pence repeated that claim several times during televised interviews. According to a
former administration official the Justice Department had warned the White House in January
2017 that Flynn had not been honest about his conversations with the ambassador. The Justice
Department feared that Flynn could be vulnerable to blackmail by Moscow.
On February 13, a US judge rejected a request from two Native American tribes to halt
construction on the controversial Dakota Access oil pipeline.
The final stretch of the $3.8b pipeline is being built under a North Dakota reservoir. The Standing
Rock Sioux and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes have filed a lawsuit against the pipeline, saying it
endangers their drinking water. They also say the pipeline will damage sacred burial sites. Once
complete, the pipeline is expected to transport about 470,000 barrels of crude oil a day from North
Dakota to a terminal in Illinois, from where it can be shipped to refineries.
According to the Washington Post on February 11, US immigration authorities arrested
numerous undocumented immigrants in six states during a series of raids.
The raids are the first large-scale enforcement of President Trump’s January 25, 2017 order to
crack down on an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. According to
officials the raids targeted known criminals, but they also netted some immigrants without criminal
records. Trump’s executive order has broadened the scope of the Department of Homeland
Security allowing them to target those with minor offenses or no convictions at all. Trump has
vowed to deport roughly 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Immigration
agents raided homes and workplaces in Atlanta, Chicago, New York, the Los Angeles area, North
Carolina and South Carolina, netting hundreds of people. Gillian Christensen, a spokeswoman
for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement
(ICE), said the raids were part of “routine” immigration enforcement actions. ICE dislikes the
term “raids,” and prefers instead to use the term “targeted enforcement actions.”
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On February 9, a federal appeals panel rejected unanimously, President Trump’s bid to
reinstate his ban on travel into the United States from seven largely Muslim countries.
The decision was handed down by the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, in San
Francisco. It upheld a February 3, 2017 ruling by a federal district judge, James L. Robart, who
blocked major parts of the travel ban allowing thousands of foreigners to enter the country. In
what is being termed “a sweeping rebuke of the Trump Administration’s claim that the courts
have no role as a check on the president”, the three-judge panel, said that the ban did not advance
national security, and also showed “no evidence” that anyone from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia,
Sudan, Syria and Yemen had committed terrorist acts in the United States. The ruling also rejected
Trump’s claim that courts are powerless to review a president’s national security assessments.
Judges have a crucial role to play in a constitutional democracy, the court said. “It is beyond
question,” the decision said, “that the federal judiciary retains the authority to adjudicate
constitutional challenges to executive action.” Earlier on February 6, the Justice Department
urged a federal appeals court to reinstate President Trump’s travel ban arguing that immediate
action was required to ensure the nation’s safety. The Administration’s brief was the latest in a
series of urgent pleas to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, in San Francisco.
In its appeal, the Justice Department said Judge James Robart had overreached by “second
guessing” the President on a national security matter. It also argued that only the president could
decide who could enter or stay in the US. According to several surveys including those by Reuters
and Ipsos, the executive order restricting travel and immigration from seven Muslim-majority
countries has more supporters than opponents in the United States.
On February 8, Neil Gorsuch, Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, described the US
president’s Twitter attacks on a judge who suspended his travel ban as “demoralising” and
“disheartening.”
A federal appeals court in San Francisco will decide in coming days on whether US District Judge
James Robart acted properly in temporarily halting enforcement of Trump’s ban. A Republican
strategist hired by the White House to help guide Gorsuch’s nomination through the US Senate
said that Gorsuch, himself an appeals court judge, used those words when he met with Democratic
Senator Richard Blumenthal.
On February 7, Senate Republicans voted to silence Elizabeth Warren for reading out a
letter from the widow of Martin Luther King during a debate over Senator Jeff Sessions’
nomination for attorney general, eliciting furious response from Democrats.
Speaking on the Senate floor, Warren quoted from 30-year-old letter from Coretta Scott King
relating to Sessions’ failed judicial nomination in the 1980s. It was part of a barnstorming speech
by the Massachusetts senator against Sessions’ suitability for the post and attacking his poor
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record on civil rights. Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell, said Warren had broken
Senate rules that prohibit one member impugning the conduct of another. Senators then voted 49-
43 to uphold a ruling in McConnell’s favour.
On February 6 President Trump asserted that the media was playing down the terrorist
threat posed by the Islamic State.
Trump told American military personnel that journalists were reluctant to report on the militant
group’s attacks in Europe and had “their reasons” for failing to cover them. Trump initially did
not provide examples of a news media conspiracy to underplay terrorist attacks, seemingly
ignoring the vast amount of reporting on violent ISIS attacks. Later the White House released a
list of what it said were 78 attacks from September 2014 to December 2016 that were carried out
or inspired by the Islamic State. The White House said, “Most have not received the media
attention they deserved.” The list included the major attacks in Brussels, Paris, San Bernardino,
California; and Orlando, Florida that dominated the news for weeks. Other attacks in the list
included some lesser known to Americans. These attacks had received extensive local coverage,
like a shooting in Zvornik, Bosnia, in April 2015 in which one police officer was killed and two
others were wounded.
US stocks slipped on February 6, led by the energy sector as oil prices decreased and
investors anticipated the next set of major earnings reports.
The benchmark S&P 500 decreased considerably as investors sought further clarity on President
Donald Trump’s economic policies. US equities have rallied since Trump’s election; spurred by
hopes for fiscal stimulus, lower taxes and fewer regulations under the Republican-led federal
government.
On February 3, President Trump ordered reviews of major banking rules that were put in
place after the 2008 financial crisis.
Criticising the move, the Democrats said it lacked substance and aligned him with Wall Street
bankers. Though the order was short on specifics, financial markets embraced Trump’s signal that
looser banking regulation was coming and pushed bank stocks higher. The Dow Jones US Banks
stocks index closed up 2.6%. During a White House forum with US business leaders, including
JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon, Trump said his Administration expects “to be cutting a lot
out of Dodd-Frank.”
According to the US department of State on February 3, some 60,000 visas were revoked
under President Donald Trump’s executive order temporarily halting immigration from
seven Muslim-majority countries.
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The revocation means the government voided travel visas for people trying to enter the United
States but the visas could be restored later without a new application, said William Cocks, a
spokesman for consular affairs at the State Department.
In an exclusive interview with the Guardian on February 2, Myron Ebell who headed
Trump’s EPA transition team, said that the Environmental Protection Agency’s research,
reports and data would not be removed from its website, but climate education material
might be changed or “withdrawn”.
According to Ebell, President Trump will work towards the abolition of the Environmental
Protection Agency and any employees from the Obama era should be “very worried” by the
prospect of Scott Pruitt taking over the agency. Ebell also signaled that a review of fuel efficiency
standards for cars, rushed through by the departing Obama Administration, is likely to be
reopened despite its contribution to the US’s pledged emissions cuts in the Paris Agreement.
On February 2, the US House of Representatives voted to ease regulations that require
extended background checks for gun buyers with mental health issues.
The checks, introduced under the Obama Administration, are believed to affect an estimated
75,000 people. The bill now needs to be approved by the Senate and signed into law by President
Donald Trump. The House also voted on Obama-era rules and regulations on the environment.
The background-check rule was introduced to provide information on the gun-buying history of
people receiving benefits for mental disability.
International
On February 15, US Defence Secretary James Mattis told NATO members that
Washington would “moderate its commitment” to the alliance if they do not increase their
spending on defence.
Mattis’s comments echoed President Donald Trump’s demand that members raise their spending
to meet a target of 2% of their GDP. Only five of the 27 member countries currently do so. Earlier,
Mattis had hailed NATO as the “fundamental bedrock” of trans-Atlantic cooperation.
During a news conference with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on February 15, US
President Donald Trump ended decades of US policy that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
should be resolved using a two-state solution.
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This would be a dramatic shift from the stance of Trump’s predecessor President Obama who said
there was no alternative. Trump promised a “great” peace deal, but said both sides must
compromise. The Israelis and Palestinians have not had any substantive peace talks since 2014.
Trump also asked Netanyahu to delay settlement building for a while. Israel has approved
thousands of new homes in West Bank and East Jerusalem settlements since Trump took office in
January 2017.
Following a formal meeting between US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau on February 13, the White House and the Prime Minister’s Office
issued a joint statement reaffirming the strong bonds between Canada and the US.
The “much-anticipated” meeting between the leaders helped assuage fears of Canadian
businesses wary of the prospect of a trade war. “No two countries share deeper or broader
relations than Canada and the United States,” the statement read, noting the “shared economic
interests,” including the $2 billion in trade that flows between them daily. The tone was very
different from that witnessed on the campaign trail, when Trump repeatedly attacked the North
American Free Trade Agreement governing trade relations between the US, Canada and Mexico.
After meeting Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on February 10, US President Donald
Trump said the alliance between the US and Japan was the “cornerstone of peace” in the
Pacific.
Trump said the US was committed to “the security of Japan.” PM Abe also emphasised the
importance of strengthening economic and trade relations. Trump had previously taken issue with
the US trade deficit with Japan, threatening tariffs on carmaker Toyota.
Reuters reported on February 9 that President Donald Trump’s proposed “wall” along the
US-Mexico border would be a series of fences and walls that would cost almost $21.6
billion, and take more than three years to construct.
Reuters was quoting an internal report of the US Department of Homeland Security. According to
the report the estimated price tag for the wall is much higher than a $12-billion figure cited by
Trump during his campaign and estimates as high as $15 billion from Republican House Speaker
Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Latin America
On February 14, the US imposed sanctions on the new vice president of Venezuela,
accusing him of involvement in international drug trafficking.
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The order adds Tareck El Aissami to the US narcotics “kingpin” sanctions list “for playing a
significant role in international narcotics trafficking.” El Aissami, who was appointed in January
2017 by President Nicolas Maduro, dismissed the allegations as an “imperialist aggression.” He
said that “the truth is invincible”, and “that he saw “this miserable and infamous aggression as
a recognition” of his “status as an anti-imperialist revolutionary.”
On February 13 thousands of people in Mexico took to the streets to protest against Donald
Trump’s immigration policies and plan for a border wall.
Protestors in several Mexican cities, dressed in white, waved Mexican flags and anti-Trump
placards. Organisers said they wanted to send a message that Mexico was united against Trump.
They also criticised Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto for failing to tackle corruption and
reduce violence.
On February 7 Colombia’s second-largest rebel group, the National Liberation Army
(ELN), entered into formal peace talks with Colombian government negotiators.
The talks are aimed at ending more than five decades of armed conflict. The ELN and the
government first announced their intention to start formal peace talks at a news conference on
March 30, 2016. They had originally been expected to start in May 2016, but that did not
materialise. Later, the two sides said the negotiations would start in the Ecuadorean capital,
Quito, on October 27, 2016 but the talks did not take place.
---Amina Afzal
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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT
On February 14, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual
Military Balance report that China is beginning to export its own weapon designs
including armed drones worldwide and the country is reaching ‘near-parity’ with the
West in terms of military technology.
The Report also noted that the total global military spending fell by 0.4% in 2016 compared to
2015, largely due to reductions in Middle East. However, China accounted for more than a third
of Asia’s total military spending in 2016. China’s air-to-air missiles had no Western equivalent
and the country had introduced a new type of short-range missile that only a handful of leading
aerospace nations are able to develop. Europe was one of the three regions in the world where
defence spending increased during 2015-2016.
On February 14, Yukiya Amano, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), stated that spent radioactive rods expelled from the world’s 440 nuclear power
plants can be safely disposed off with the help of a deep-earth geological facility
expected to open in Finland by 2022.
While talking to delegates on the final day of the World Government Summit in UAE, Amano
said that radioactive waste would be buried deep within shields of rock where it would remain
undisturbed for one million years to avoid human exposure. As it is difficult to deal with high
levels of waste burying it deep in the earth is a safe measure.
According to North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on February 13, the
country successfully completed the launch of a new ballistic missile, a first test after US
President Donald J. Trump assumed office.
KCNA described the new missile as medium-range ‘Pukguksong-2’ ballistic missile, capable of
carrying nuclear weapons. The missile’s name Pukguksong-2 means North Star or Polaris. The
test-launch of the missile took place under the supervision of North Korean Leader Kim Jong-
Un. KCNA said the missile was fired at a high angle to ensure the safety of neighbouring
countries. The missile travelled 500 kilometres towards Japan and landed off the coast of the
Korean peninsula. A solid fuel engine propelled the missile and it was an upgraded extended-
range version of the submarine-launched ballistic missile, KN-11 or Pukguksong-1, successfully
tested in August 2016. The North’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper also showed pictures of a missile
fired from a mobile launch vehicle. Jonathan McDowell, an expert at the Harvard Smithsonian
Centre for Astrophysics noted that North Korea’s successful launch of the missile is indeed a
significant advance by the country because large solid-fuel motors are difficult to use. The US,
South Korea and Japan also confirmed the test. While condemning the test, White House adviser
Stephen Miller said that the US would reinforce and strengthen its vital alliances in the Pacific
region as part of its strategy to deter the North Korean regime. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe called the launch “absolutely intolerable” and said North Korea must comply with UNSC
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resolutions. North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and numerous missile-related tests in 2016
and is making steady progress in its weapons capabilities.
On February 11, India successfully tested a high-altitude interceptor missile, achieving a
significant milestone in the direction of developing a two-layered Ballistic Missile
Defence (BMD) system.
The interceptor missile was launched from Abdul Kalam Island off Odisha coast. According to
India’s Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), the exo-atmospheric interceptor
missile, also known as Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV), directly hit the target missile at an
altitude of 97 kilometres. The target was developed for mimicking a hostile ballistic missile
approaching from more than 2000 kilometres away. The DRDO said that India has crossed an
important milestone in building its overall capability towards enhanced security against
incoming ballistic missile threats. India’s BMD system is being designed to track and destroy
hostile missiles both inside (endo) and outside (exo) the earth’s atmosphere. However, India has
not yet tested its developing BMD system in an integrated mode, using both endo and exo
interceptor missiles.
On February 10, Israel Aerospace Industries successfully test-fired the Barak-8 surface-
to-surface missile at sea.
Barak-8 is operated by the Israeli armed forces to defend against airborne threats including
aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-ship missiles and cruise missiles. The
weapon system is also able to engage multiple targets at a time. Barak-8 weighs 600 pounds and
has an operational range of 85 kilometres. Israel, India and Azerbaijan are currently the only
operators of the weapon system. Germany and Poland have also expressed their interest in
acquiring the weapon.
According to United Press International (UPI) on February 10, the US Air Force test-
fired an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the
Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
US Air Force officials said that the operational launch of the missile was conducted to verify the
missile’s capability as a nuclear deterrent. The Minuteman III, equipped with a re-entry vehicle,
travelled approximately 4,200 miles to a test range near Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands
in the Pacific Ocean. The air force officials gave no more information regarding the test.
However, defence experts believe that given the various missile tests and emanating threats from
North Korea, the Minuteman launch may have been a message to the country that the US can
strike it at short notice. Minuteman III is the US military’s only land-based ICBM designed
during the 1950s and introduced in 1962 as a counter-attack deterrent against the Soviet Union.
The missile has an approximate range of 8,100 miles, a speed of 15,000 miles per hour, and can
carry up to three warheads.
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On February 9, a blast occurred in the machine room of the Flamanville nuclear power
plant located on France's northwest coast.
According to the officials at the nuclear power plant, there was no nuclear risk following the
blast in the machine room of the Flamanville. However, five people were slightly injured after
inhaling smoke from a fire that broke out after the explosion. Olivier Marmion, a senior regional
official stated, "It is a significant technical event but it is not a nuclear accident." The two
nuclear reactors of the Flamanville nuclear power plant are 1,300 MW and they were built
during the 1980s.
According to Reuters on February 9, US President Donald Trump called the New
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a bad deal for the US.
Two US officials stated that in his first call as President, Trump told Russian President Vladimir
Putin that the treaty was one of several bad deals negotiated by the previous administration.
Trump said that the Treaty only favoured Russia. The two officials also mentioned that during
the call when Putin raised the possibility of extending the Treaty, Trump paused to ask his aides
what the Treaty was. Sean Spicer, White House spokesman, said that Trump knew what the New
START treaty was but had turned to his aides for an opinion during the call with Putin. The
White House did not make any further comments on the details of the call. The New START
treaty obligates both Russia and the US to reduce their deployed strategic nuclear warheads to
no more than 1,550 by February 2018. Both countries signed the Treaty on April 8, 2010, which
entered into force on February 5, 2011. According to Daryl Kimball, the executive director of
the Arms Control Association, Trump appears to be clueless about the value of this key nuclear
risk reduction treaty and the unique dangers of nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson also supported the Treaty during his Senate confirmation hearings.
On February 8, Iran conducted a ballistic missile test from a site near Semnan, east of
Tehran, where it had previously conducted a test on January 29, 2017.
On February 4, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched military drills to test
the country’s missiles and radar systems in defiance of newly imposed sanctions by the
US.
On February 3, the US imposed new sanctions on companies and individuals suspected of
involvement in Iran’s missile programme.
The imposed sanctions targeted 12 companies and 13 individuals related to Iran’s missile
programme, including Chinese firms suspected of supplying parts used in Iran’s missile
development programme. These sanctions came in response to Iran’s missile test on January 29,
2017, and the country’s alleged support to Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Trump Administration
believes that the tested missile was nuclear capable. US officials said that the missile test was
inconsistent with UN Security Council Resolution 2231 which calls on Iran not to develop or test
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missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons but does not ban such activity outright. On the
contrary, Iran confirmed testing a ballistic missile but said that its missile test did not violate the
resolution. Hours after the imposition of sanctions, US Defence Secretary James Mattis called
Iran the world’s biggest state sponsor of “terrorism”. According to the Trump Administration
the sanctions are an initial step and a broader review of Iran’s policy was under way. According
to sanctions experts, the new set of sanctions do not re-impose any sanctions that were lifted as a
result of Iran’s nuclear agreement and their impact would be more symbolic than practical.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denounced the sanctions as illegal and said it would impose legal
restrictions on American individuals and entities helping regional terrorist groups. Apart from
Iran, China also lodged a protest with the US over the country’s sanctioning of Iran, including
some Chinese companies and individuals too. Iran also held a military exercise on February 4,
2017, and launched a medium-range surface-to-air ballistic missile on February 8, 2017 in
defiance of the newly imposed sanctions. According to IRGC, the aim of the military exercise in
Semnan province and launching a ballistic missile was to showcase Iran’s power.
On February 3, US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, warned North Korea of an
‘effective and overwhelming’ response if Pyongyang used nuclear weapons against the
US or its allies.
During his first official overseas visit to South Korea, Mattis said, “Any attack on the United
States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a
response that would be effective and overwhelming.” He added, “America’s commitments to
defending our allies and to upholding our extended deterrence guarantees remain ironclad.”
Mattis’ remarks came amid growing concerns that North Korea may test an intercontinental
ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of targeting the US. The visit of the US Defence Secretary
reaffirmed the Trump Administration’s commitment to the longstanding cooperation between the
two countries. During the visit Mattis also discussed the timetable for the deployment of
Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD) in South Korea.
--- Moiz Khan
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CHINA & EAST ASIA
China
On February 4, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang criticised US
President Donald Trump over his recent pledge of support for Japan’s overlapping
territorial claims with China.
Shuang said that China has “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and
their adjacent waters,” adding that “Beijing remains firmly committed to upholding its
territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” The development came after US
President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe issued a joint statement in
which they affirmed that “Article V of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
covers the disputed Senkaku Islands,” referred to in China as Diaoyu. The Chinese spokesman,
however, expressed Beijing’s “grave” concern over and “firm” opposition to the joint statement,
underlining that the islands are part of China’s “inherent territory.”
During his visit to Australia on February 7, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi met his
Australian counterpart Julia Bishop and pledged stronger relations with Australia.
Wang also warned that the escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington under US
President Donald Trump would have no winner. During a visit to Canberra, Wang Yi advised
the US to “brush up” on its South China Sea history, after Washington said it would push back
against Beijing’s claims to territories in the disputed waterway.
During a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 10, US President Donald
Trump agreed to honour the “One China” policy.
Trump angered Beijing in December 2016 by talking to the president of Taiwan and saying the
US did not have to stick to the policy, under which Washington acknowledges the Chinese
position that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it. Under the One China policy, the
US recognises and has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan.
On February 14, Chinese authorities shot dead three knife-wielding assailants who killed five
people in China’s Xinjiang region.
The Chinese authorities further described the assailants as “thugs” and said that “social order”
had been restored in the area. Beijing often accuses what it describes as exiled Uighur separatist
groups of planning attacks in the region. Meanwhile, foreign-based Uighurs claim Beijing is
cracking down on the ethnic minority. Members of the Uighur community in China are
predominantly Muslim and speak Turkish, which is distinct from the Chinese-speaking Han
national majority.
18
Japan
On February 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump met at
the White House. Following the meeting, President Trump described Japan as “an important
and steadfast ally”, adding that Washington was committed to bringing bilateral ties even
closer.
President Trump also said the two nations would continue to build up defensive capabilities in
the Pacific, promoting shared interests, including freedom of navigation. Meanwhile, a joint US-
Japanese statement said the US commitment to defend Japan through nuclear and conventional
military capabilities is unwavering. The two sides also reaffirmed the importance of both
deepening their trade and investment relations and of their continued efforts in promoting trade,
economic growth, and high standards throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Trump has previously
criticised his country’s bilateral security relationship with Japan while asking Japan to
undertake more financial burden sharing.
---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer
19
EUROPE
BBC reported on February 15 that a new police unit in Hungary, launched to reinforce
patrols along the 175km border fence with Serbia, is struggling to find suitable candidates
despite a massive recruitment drive.
Many applicants fail the psychology test, one of several designed to weed out inappropriate
applicants. Visible tattoos were another criterion for rejection. Xenophobia is at record levels in
Hungary, after two years of anti-migrant rhetoric from the conservative Fidesz government. Work
is underway on a second, electronic fence parallel to the first, designed to prevent illegal entry.
Hungary now accepts only 10 applicants for asylum a day from Serbia, where up to 7,000 asylum
seekers are waiting for the chance to move on to western Europe. Under the new legislation, all
asylum seekers will be kept in detention while their applications are being considered. This is
being done to prevent them from absconding into Austria.
On February 15, Russia denied violating a Cold War-era missiles treaty, following
accusations by officials in the Trump Administration.
A Kremlin spokesperson asserted that Russia continued to uphold its international commitments.
The US State Department has made no official comment. The alleged deployment will be discussed
during a NATO meeting in Brussels. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he would not
comment on intelligence reports but added that any non-compliance from Russia on the arms
control treaty would be a “serious concern for the alliance”.
According to the NY Times on February 14, Russia has secretly deployed a new cruise
missile that American officials say violates a landmark arms control treaty.
The deployment poses a major test for President Trump as his Administration is facing a crisis
over its ties to Moscow. The deployment also comes as the Trump Administration is struggling to
fill key policy positions including a replacement for Michael T. Flynn. The ground-launched cruise
missile at the centre of US concerns is one that the Obama Administration said in 2014 had been
tested in violation of a 1987 treaty that bans American and Russian intermediate-range missiles
based on land.
On February 13, General Motors Co and French automaker PSA Group said they are in
talks that could result in PSA buying GM’s European auto operations.
PSA owns Peugeot, Citroen and DS brands. Acquiring GM’s Opel and Vauxhall brands would
give it a 16.3% share of the European passenger car market, pushing it into second place in the
region, ahead of French rival Renault SA and behind Germany’s Volkswagen AG. Any deal would
20
have to overcome financial, industrial and political obstacles. Germany’s industrial union IG
Metall warned that if the companies were discussing the sale of Opel without the union’s
involvement, it would be an “an unprecedented breach of all German and European co-
determination rights.” German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said it was totally unacceptable
that talks took place on French carmaker PSA Group buying GM’s European Opel unit without
consulting German works councils or local government.
The Guardian reported on February 14 that the standoff between Greece and its creditors
had escalated.
The setback came as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ coalition said it would not agree to additional
austerity beyond the cuts the country had already agreed to administer under its third, EU-led
bailout programme. The embattled Athens government has vowed it will not give in to demands
for further cuts as data showed the country’s economy unexpectedly contracting. Thousands of
protesting farmers rallied in Athens over increasing costs and unpopular reforms as the Hellenic
statistical authority revealed that Greek GDP shrank by 0.4% in the last three months of 2016. On
February 13, 2017 the European Commission announced that Greece was on course to achieving
a surplus on its budget of 2.3% after exceeding its 2016 fiscal targets “significantly”.
On February 13, the Swedish government defended its decision to have its officials wear
headscarves during a trip to Iran.
The government said that failing to do so would have broken the law. Trade Minister Ann Linde
led a business team to Tehran and faced criticism for wearing a headscarf, or hijab. A prominent
Iranian women’s rights activist and Swedish politicians have criticised the decision. “It is ruinous
to what is called a feminist foreign policy” said Liberal party chief Jan Bjorklund, who said Iran
oppressed women through legislation. The Swedish government should have requested that female
members of the delegation should not have been required to wear a headscarf, he said, and that if
the request were not granted any trade agreements should have been signed in Sweden or a third
country.
On February 12, Switzerland voted to relax the country’s strict citizenship rules, making it
easier for third-generation immigrants to become Swiss.
Being born in Switzerland does not guarantee citizenship. Non-Swiss residents have to wait 12
years before they are able to apply. Expensive tests and government interviews are also required.
According to initial projections 59% of Swiss voters agreed that rules should be simplified. Under
the new proposal third-generation immigrants, who are born in Switzerland and whose parents
and grandparents lived permanently in Switzerland will be exempted from interviews and tests
21
during the naturalisation process. Supporters of the plan argue that it is ridiculous to ask people
who were born and have lived all their lives in Switzerland to prove that they are integrated.
According to Reuters on February 11, European Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker expressed fear that Britain would divide the EU’s remaining 27 members by
making different promises to each country during its Brexit negotiations.
“The other EU 27 don’t know it yet, but the Brits know very well how they can tackle this,” he
said. “They could promise country A this, country B that and country C something else and the
end game is that there is not a united European front.” According to reports Juncker also said he
would not seek a second term as European Commission President when his five-year term expires
in 2019.
On February 8, Russia’s main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, was found guilty of
embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence.
The sentence bars Navalny from running for president in 2018 against Vladimir Putin. Navalny
denies the charges and has vowed to take part in the race regardless. It was not clear if this was
legally possible. The conviction came during a retrial after the European Court of Human Rights
ruled the first trial to be unfair. The court in the provincial city of Kirov found Navalny guilty of
embezzlement in relation to a timber company called Kirovles, for which he was also handed an
$8,500 fine.
On February 6 an EU review revealed multiple failings by the UK in applying
environmental law.
On the same day the Commission escalated its action against Britain for breaching air pollution
limits. Britain has been in breach of EU nitrogen dioxide (NO2) limits since 2010. London overshot
its annual air pollution limit for 2017 during the first five days. According to the Guardian a
“reasoned opinion” was sent on February 15, 2017 to the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
If a satisfactory response is not received within two months, a case at the European court could
follow.
On February 3, EU leaders meeting in Malta agreed on a plan to reduce the flow of migrants
from Libya.
Libya’s UN-backed government will receive $215m, including funding to reinforce its coastguard.
The EU hopes Libya will be better able to disrupt people-smuggling networks and turn back
migrant boats. Human rights groups have criticised the EU’s strategy. Moreover the UN-backed
22
government in Libya has limited control over its own territory. Earlier, on February 2, the Italian
coastguard said it rescued more than 1,750 migrants in the Mediterranean within 24 hours.
On February 3, a French soldier guarding the Louvre in Paris shot a man who tried to attack
a security patrol with a machete.
According to the police he shouted “Allahu Akbar.” The man, who tried to gain entry to the
Louvre’s shopping centre, was shot in the abdomen and seriously injured. He is an Egyptian man
who arrived in France in January 2017. After the incident President Francois Hollande said the
situation was under control but the “threat of terrorism is here to stay.”
On February 4, the Romanian government said it would withdraw a controversial decree
that would have decriminalised some corruption offences.
On February 2 the Romanian capital, Bucharest, witnessed one of its largest ever anti-
government protests after a decree was passed that could free dozens of officials jailed for
corruption.
A crowd of at least 150,000 was reported outside government offices on February 1, 2017 and
rallies took place in other towns and cities. The leftist government, led by Prime Minister Sorin
Grindeanu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), only returned to power in December when
protests forced its previous leader from power in October 2015.
---Amina Afzal
23
MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA
Bahrain
On February 12, Turkey and Bahrain signed an agreement on bilateral cooperation in the
arms industry.
Manama was the first destination in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tour of the Persian Gulf
states. Turkish Defence Minister, Fikri Isik and his Bahraini counterpart, Mohammed bin
Abdullah Al Khalifah, inked the memorandum of understanding in the presence of Erdogan and
Bahrain’s monarch Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah. According to press reports, Ankara and Manama
also signed a number of other agreements concerning visa fee exemptions and education. Erdogan
also expressed his wish for Turkey and Bahrain to work together for the stability, peace, and future
of the region. Erdogan and his delegation will also travel to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The focus
of Erdogan’s tour is on regional, political, security and economic issues. According to Qatar’s
official news agency, regional issues on the tour’s agenda also include the situation in Syria and
Iraq.
Egypt
Following a meeting in Cairo on February 13, Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi,
and his Lebanese counterpart, Michel Aoun attended a joint press conference, during which
Sisi said that the two sides had agreed to cooperate against terrorism.
Sisi said that Egypt would help boost the capabilities of the Lebanese army and security forces to
safeguard Lebanon, which he described as “a unique model of coexistence in the region.”
Lebanon is suffering from the spill over of militancy in neighbouring Syria. Takfiri terrorists have
been active in Lebanese areas situated close to the Syrian border. In Egypt, militants have been
active in the restive Sinai Peninsula over the past years, conducting attacks against the country’s
military and security forces. Aoun, who is on his first visit to Cairo since his election in October
2016, praised Egypt’s role as a unifying element in the Arab world, saying that Cairo could
facilitate the settlement of disputes in crisis-hit countries like Syria.
Dawn reported on February 12 that Daesh claims to have executed five men it accuses of
spying for the Egyptian army battling terrorists in the Sinai Peninsula.
In a series of photos published on February 10, 2017, five men presented as ‘spies’ are seen lying
face down on the ground before a militant shoots them with an assault rifle. Militants have killed
hundreds of soldiers and policemen since the military overthrew Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and
launched a crackdown on his supporters. The crackdown destroyed the Islamist movement and
killed hundreds of Morsi’s followers, resulting in an insurgency that has killed hundreds of security
personnel. Most of the attacks have taken place in the Sinai Peninsula, which borders Israel and
the Gaza Strip, but attacks have also been carried out in other areas including Cairo.
24
Iran
On February 7, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed the US
decision to put Iran on notice over its missile tests and called President Donald Trump the
‘real face’ of American corruption.
In his first speech since Trump’s inauguration, Khamenei called on Iranians to take part in
demonstrations against American ‘threats’ on February 10, 2017, the anniversary of Iran’s 1979
Islamic revolution. Trump had responded to the January 29, 2017 Iranian missile test by saying
‘Iran is playing with fire’ and imposed fresh sanctions on both individuals and entities, some of
them linked to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. According to the White House the missile test
was not a direct breach of Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with six world powers but it ‘violates
the spirit’ of the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, said Tehran would not
renegotiate the nuclear deal that Trump consistently criticises as being a gift to Iran.
Israel
Addressing a pro-settlement conference held in East Jerusalem al-Quds on February 13,
Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said he supports the full annexation of occupied West
Bank.
Rivlin also said that if Israel annexes the rest of the West Bank, it must give all Palestinians living
there full Israeli citizenship. Israel’s Public Security Minister, Gilad Erdan added that none of the
members of Netanyahu’s inner circle believe that a Palestinian state should be created over the
next few years. The presence and continued expansion of Israeli settlements in Occupied Palestine
has created a major obstacle for efforts aimed at establishing peace in the Middle East. Although
Netanyahu has never openly voiced opposition to the two-state solution, Palestinians argue that
Tel Aviv’s constant settlement activities prove that he is not committed to it.
On February 12, the Israeli Ministerial Committee for Legislation endorsed a draft law
aimed at silencing the Muslim call to prayer.
A statement released by the committee said the “bill for prevention of noise from public address
systems in houses of prayer” had been “passed” without giving further information. The Israeli
parliament will now discuss the draft legislation. If passed, it will be returned to the committee
for a second and third reading. Despite the bill making no mention of any specific religion, it has
become known as the “muezzin bill or law” as it blocks the traditional Muslim call to prayer.
PressTv reported on February 9 that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu
summoned the Belgian ambassador to Israel over a meeting of Prime Minister Charles
Michel of Belgium with two prominent rights groups critical of Tel Aviv.
25
Netanyahu ordered a formal protest to be handed over to the Belgian ambassador after Michel,
during his visit to the Occupied territories, met the heads of Breaking the Silence and B’Tselem
rights groups. A statement from Netanyahu’s office said, “The government of Belgium needs to
decide if it wants to change direction or continue with its anti-Israel path.” Breaking the Silence
collects testimonies from former Israeli troops with regard to rights violations they witness in the
Palestinian territories. Michel discussed Israel’s policies in the West Bank with the two groups.
The meeting came a day after Michel met Netanyahu, during which the Israeli premier urged his
Belgian counterpart not to fund organisations opposed to Tel Aviv’s policies. In related news, on
February 6, during his visit to Britain, Netanyahu asked British Prime Minister Theresa May to
stop funding what he called NGOs “hostile to Israel” including Breaking the Silence. According
to Netanyahu, May plans to conduct a “re-examination” of her country’s approach to funding
NGOs.
On February 7, Israel passed a controversial law retroactively legalising 3,800 settler
homes built on private Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank.
According to settlement watchdog, Peace Now, the law legalises homes in both the settlements
and some 53 outposts, which have been built without official authorisation. Under the law, the
original Palestinian landowners will be financially compensated or given alternative land. The
new law comes amid an escalation in settlement activity in 2017. Israeli opposition leader
Yitzhak Herzog denounced the measure as being “an acute danger to Israel” which could lead
to prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. The ICC is currently
examining whether Israeli settlements should be subject to a full investigation. Israel’s attorney
general has said the law is unconstitutional and that he will not defend it in the Supreme Court.
Britain, France, the UN and Jordan criticised the new law. Earlier, on February 2, US President
Donald Trump unexpectedly warned Israel that constructing new settlements “may not be
helpful” to Middle East peace efforts. More than 600,000 Jews live in about 140 settlements
built since Israel’s 1967 occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The settlements are
considered illegal under international law. Palestinians say the new legislation negates peace
and their chances of creating a state.
Libya
On February 13, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his “deep” regret over
the US’ opposition to the designation of former Palestinian premier Salam Fayyad as the
special envoy to Libya.
On February 10, the US blocked the appointment of Salam Fayyad to lead the UN political
mission in Libya, saying it was acting to support its ally Israel.
26
Fayyad served as the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority from 2007 to 2013. Guterres had
proposed Fayyad to the UNSC to replace Martin Kobler of Germany. The UN chief needs the
unanimous support of all 15 members of the Council for the appointment of special envoys to
conflict regions. However, US Ambassador Nikki Haley blocked the designation by voting against
Fayyad saying that the Trump Administration ‘was disappointed’ to see that Guterres had sent a
letter to the UNSC indicating his intention to appoint Salam Fayyad as the next UN special
representative to Libya. She further said, “For too long the UN has been unfairly biased in favour
of the Palestinian Authority to the detriment of our allies in Israel.” Palestine is a non-member
observer state at the UN and its independence has been recognised by 137 of the 193 UN member
nations. But Haley said the US doesn’t currently recognise a Palestinian state nor did it support
the signal Fayyad’s appointment would send within the UN. According to UN diplomats, Fayyad
is well respected for his work in reforming the Palestinian Authority and stimulating its economy.
He also had the support of 14 other UNSC members to succeed Martin Kobler. At the annual
World Government Summit in Dubai, Guterres said that he did not see “any reason” for the US
opposition to the appointment of Fayyad, whom he described as “the right person for the right job
at the right moment.”
Palestine
On February 6, Israel hit a number of Hamas positions in Gaza after a rocket fired from
the Palestinian enclave hit a border area.
According to Palestinian sources, Israeli tank fire targeted two Hamas posts while air strikes hit
targets in northern Gaza. According to initial reports, a projectile launched from the Gaza Strip
landed in an open area causing no injuries or major damage. Israeli Army spokesman Peter
Lerner said, “The Army will not tolerate rocket fire towards civilians and will continue to ensure
security and stability in the region.” Since the 2014 conflict, Israel and Hamas have observed a
fragile ceasefire along the closed border. Missiles and rockets are occasionally fired at Israel
but are often attributed to other Islamist groups inside Gaza. The Israeli army usually retaliates
by striking Hamas’ positions, which it considers responsible for the territory.
Saudi Arabia
According to Saudi Press Agency (SPA) on February 5, a Saudi warship targeted by
Yemeni rebel ‘suicide’ boats returned to its home port in Jeddah.
The frigate was attacked by the Houthi militia while on patrol in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia said
that two sailors were killed and three wounded when battleship Al-Madinah was hit by a Yemeni
rebel boat strike off the Red Sea port of Hodeida. The Houthi rebels said they hit the ship with a
guided missile. The US has since deployed the USS Cole to the Bab Al-Mandab strait connecting
27
the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Seventeen US military personnel were killed aboard the USS
Cole in an attack in the Yemeni port city of Aden in October 2000 claimed by Al Qaeda. A Saudi-
led Arab coalition launched a military campaign against the Houthi rebels in March 2015 as the
insurgents closed in on President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi in Aden, forcing him into exile.
According to the World Health Organisation, more than 7,400 Yemenis, most of them civilians,
have since been killed. At least 113 Saudis have been killed in skirmishes or rocket strikes along
the border with Yemen since the coalition campaign started.
Syria
On February 9, Russia denounced an Amnesty International report claiming that Syrian
military police hanged as many as 13,000 people over the course of five years.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, told journalists during a briefing in
Moscow that the report was “a false story that does not correspond to reality and is a fake.” She
further said, “This is yet another targeted act of provocation aimed at pouring oil on the fire of
the dying-down conflict within Syria.” The Russian spokeswoman criticised Amnesty for
publishing figures that she said were “the result of mathematical calculations on the basis of
testimony of unnamed people.” The Syrian Justice Ministry also rejected the account of mass
hangings at Saydnaya prison near Damascus between 2011 and 2015 as ‘bogus and false’,
saying such claims were meant to ruin the government’s reputation in the international
community. It added that such allegations come in the face of recent gains by the Syrian army
and allied popular defence groups in battles against foreign-sponsored Takfiri terrorists. The
statement further emphasised that based on Syrian law, death sentences are handed only after
judicial trials run through several degrees of litigation.
In a meeting with a European delegation on February 6, Syrian President Basher al-Assad
criticised European governments for adopting unrealistic and wrong policies toward Syria
over the past years.
While addressing a group of parliamentarians from Belgium, President Assad said Europeans
had erroneously decided to support anti-government militants in Syria when the crisis erupted in
Syria. He also said the approach resulted in Europe’s isolation from international efforts meant
to resolve the crisis and had also resulted in the EU losing its traditional role and position in the
world of diplomacy. Filip Dewinter, Member of Belgium’s Parliament and head of the visiting
delegation, said that Syria’s decisive victory in 2016 against militants in Aleppo had shifted the
balance of power in the war against terrorism, adding that many politicians in Europe had
started to change their position on the Syrian conflict. Other members of the delegation also
appreciated Syria’s increasing success in battling terrorism, saying eliminating the menace of
terror in Syria would definitely curb its spread to the entire world.
28
On February 4, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, opposed a
proposed initiative to create ‘safe zones’ in Syria for refugees, saying the country was
‘not the right place’ for the initiative.
Grandi cited terrorism and the fragmentation of Syria and its warring parties as obstacles to
creating safe zones in the country. US President Donald Trump floated the idea of safe zones as
a substitute for resettling refugees in the US and elsewhere around the globe. On February 2,
2017, Trump explored schemes with Jordanian King Abdullah II during a meeting in
Washington, DC. Jordan is host to some 650,000 Syrian refugees. Turkey and Lebanon are also
pushing for safe zones across their borders. The two countries host 3.75 million refugees
between them. Damascus expressed its deep concern over the various proposals, saying they
would have to be set up in coordination with the Syrian government. Trump pushed the
international refugee system into crisis when he issued an executive order banning refugees from
entering the US for 120 days. Grandi called the executive order a ‘dangerous weakening’ of the
established international norms to protect refugees.
Turkey
On February 9, new CIA Chief Mike Pompeo arrived in Ankara for talks with Turkish
officials, on his first foreign visit since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.
Turkey announced on February 8 that US President Donald Trump and Turkey’s Recep
Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to cooperate in the fight against militants in Syria.
During a telephonic conversation, the Presidents discussed acting together in Turkey’s battle to
capture the Syrian town of Al Bab from Daesh and taking the main Daesh stronghold of Raqqa.
Turkey is a member of the US-led coalition against Daesh. The country launched a unilateral
incursion into Syria in August 2016, backing Syrian rebels to clear its border from Daesh fighters
and also pushing back Syrian Kurdish militia. The battle for Al Bab is the toughest yet, with the
army suffering increasing casualties and Erdogan complaining that Ankara has been left alone.
According to analysts, Erdogan has high expectations of the Trump Administration after
expressing disappointment in the Obama Administration. Turkey was particularly enraged by US
support for Syrian Kurdish militia, which Washington regards as the most effective group in the
fight against Daesh. Turkey regards the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed
wing, the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG), as terror groups and branches of the outlawed
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Erdogan also said Turkey expected Washington to stand by
Ankara in the fight against the US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of staging the
failed coup in Turkey. Pompeo arrived in Ankara to discuss the Syria conflict, in particular
Turkey’s operation against Daesh in the town of Al-Bab and a possible plan to capture Raqqa.
29
UAE
BBC reported on February 13 that MPs in the Republic of Somaliland have agreed to allow
the UAE to set up a military base in the port of Berbera.
Somaliland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo told MPs that the military base would help
create jobs. During the parliamentary vote, 144 legislators supported the military base, two voted
against, two abstained. According to observers, the deal has proven controversial among
Somaliland’s neighbours in the Horn of Africa. The UAE already has a military facility at Eritrea’s
Assab port for use in a campaign against Yemeni rebels. It is part of a coalition that has fought
Houthi rebels and imposed a naval blockade on Yemen since 2015. The Horn of Africa is
strategically important for Gulf nations because of ongoing military operations in Yemen and in
the long term to protect their shipping interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Djibouti has
remained the regional hub for foreign military bases, but now faces competition from its next-door
neighbour. In Somaliland, the UAE has an alternative and less controversial location for a military
base than Eritrea, which is under UN sanctions. The Emiratis will also provide training and
equipment for Somaliland forces. Its port in Berbera is not solely for military use. Its expansion
could provide Somaliland with more robust economic opportunities, particularly targeting its
landlocked neighbour Ethiopia. However, as Somaliland is not internationally recognised, the
authorities will need to be wary of any legal complications that could arise.
Yemen
During a visit to the Saudi capital Riyadh, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called
for the ‘resurrection’ of peace talks between Yemen’s warring sides to end the suffering of
civilians.
Guterres was speaking at a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir
after talks with King Salman, Crown Prince and Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, and
Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman. Guterres also urged the
conflicting sides in Yemen to ensure the unhindered delivery of relief aid to civilians. UN peace
envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed also attended the press briefing. He has been pushing for a
peace plan meant to pave the way for a political transition in the country. Seven ceasefires
brokered by the UN between government and rebel forces have failed, while UN-backed peace
talks have repeatedly broken down. The Houthi movement has been running Yemen’s affairs since
late 2014, when Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi resigned and fled to Riyadh. The UN Secretary-
General is on his first Middle East tour since he was sworn in on January 1, 2017. He also visited
the UAE, Oman, Qatar and Egypt.
On February 8, the UN appealed for $2.1 billion to provide much needed aid to millions
of people in Yemen, warning the country could soon face famine.
30
UN Humanitarian Aid Chief Stephen O’Brien warned that without international support, Yemeni
people might face the threat of famine in 2017. He also urged donors to sustain and increase
their support to the collective response. The appeal from UN agencies and other humanitarian
organisations aims to gather funds to help at least 12 million of the nearly 19 million people
expected to need assistance across Yemen in 2017. According to the UN, nearly 7,500 people
have been killed and more than 40,000 injured since the conflict escalated in 2015, while more
than two million people remain displaced inside Yemen. More than 10 million people need
immediate, life-saving aid, including more than two million children who are acutely
malnourished. In 2016, UN agencies and other partners provided aid to 5.6 million people in
Yemen. They hope to double that number in 2017.
---Muhammad Shoaib
31
SOUTH ASIA
Pakistan
External
On February 14, Pakistan summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner, J.P. Singh
in Islamabad over the killing of three Pakistani soldiers in a ceasefire violation by Indian
troops in the Bhimber sector of Azad Kashmir.
Pakistan urged the Indian side to respect the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding and investigate the
latest and other incidents of ceasefire violations. Earlier on February 8, Pakistan’s military
warned during a corps commanders’ conference that Indian ceasefire violations at the Line of
Control (LoC) were a potential threat to regional stability. Tensions between Pakistan and India
reached their highest level after Indian troops killed more than 100 demonstrators following the
outbreak of massive protests in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) in July 2016 against the Indian
rule. The situation further deteriorated in September 2016, after militants launched an attack at
the Uri army base in IOK, which killed at least 19 Indian soldiers.
On February 11, Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz said that Pakistan is
determined to counter growing threats to peace in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), mainly
from its nuclearisation started by India.
Aziz said the nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean had destabilised the region, adding that the
Indian Navy’s substantial expansion remains a cause of concern for Pakistan. India has seen a
phenomenal increase in its naval expenditure over the last decade including the development of
(SLBMs) and the acquisition of aircraft carriers and stealth frigates. There are also reports in
the Indian media that India has secretly commissioned into service its first nuclear powered
submarine INS Arihant. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on February 9, 2017 that India’s nuclear
weapons build-up remains a threat to peace in the region and beyond.
On February 10, the multinational ‘Aman-17’ naval exercise commenced in the Arabian
Sea off Karachi with 37 countries, including Pakistan, taking part in the event.
According to media reports, nine countries, including the US, Russia, China, Britain, Australia,
Indonesia, Turkey, Sri Lanka and Japan, are participating with their naval assets. Commander
of the Pakistani fleet Vice Admiral, Arifullah Hussaini, said that the drills would help in
countering human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and terrorism in the region. In his message,
PM Nawaz Sharif vowed freedom of navigation in the Arabian Sea. The Premier pointed out that
maritime security challenges in the Indian Ocean are both multidimensional and multifaceted.
He also called for increased cooperation between international navies for countering future
threats.
32
Dawn reported on February 10 citing White House officials that President Trump’s
Administration has no plan to ban Pakistani citizens from travelling to the United States
because Pakistan is providing the data required to vet a visitor.
The US, however, refused to issue a visa for Ghafoor Hyderi, the Deputy Chairman of Pakistan’s
Senate, who was to lead a two-member delegation in an UN-sponsored Inter-Parliamentary
Union conference scheduled to be held in New York on February 13 and 14, 2017. President
Donald Trump signed an executive order on January 27, 2017, banning citizens of seven
Muslim-majority countries from entering the US. While Pakistan’s name was not mentioned in
the list, there have been concerns that the country might be added in the next ban list.
According to Dawn on February 7, a report by various US think tanks and universities
noted that designating Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism is unwise in the first year
of a new administration, but should be kept as an option for the longer term.
The report also advised the Trump Administration to “state up front that it intends to review the
intelligence on Pakistani involvement in supporting terror much more critically than its
predecessors.” The report urges the Trump Administration to “avoid viewing and portraying
Pakistan as an ally and to deal with it as a non-ally, which has engaged in supporting the
Afghan Taliban.”
During a telephonic conversation between Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed
Bajwa and US Defence Secretary James Mattis on February 9, the two sides reaffirmed
their commitment toward the mutual goal of bringing peace to the region and discussed
measures aimed at achieving that goal.
The two sides also underlined the need for continued engagement at multiple levels between the
two countries. Secretary Mattis also appreciated the role the Pakistan Army has played in
combating terrorism.
Dawn reported on February 2 that India is blocking on ‘procedural grounds’ the
appointment of a Pakistani diplomat as the next secretary general of the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
India has pointed out that the appointment of SAARC Secretary General should have been done
through its Council of Ministers meeting, which was not held in Islamabad last time as a result
of India and its allies abstaining from participation. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials accused
India of using ‘delaying tactics’ and pointed out that the approval of all SAARC member states
including India had already been acquired during the ministers meeting in 2016.
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Pakistan
Internal
On February 13, at least 15 people including senior police officials were killed and 85
others injured after a suicide explosion outside the Punjab Assembly in Lahore during a
protest. The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, faction of the Tehreek-i-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) claimed
responsibility for the attack.
In a related development on February 15, Afghan Deputy Head of Mission, Syed Abdul
Nasir Yousafi was called in to the Foreign Office, by Additional Secretary (UN&EC),
Tasnim Aslam, to convey Pakistan’s “grave concern about the continuing terrorist attacks
on Pakistani soil by the terrorist outfit Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) operating from its
sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.”
Islamabad urged Kabul to take urgent measures to eliminate the terrorists and their sanctuaries,
financiers and handlers operating from its territory. Pakistan’s Foreign Office official also
shared an ‘aide-memoire’ with the Afghan deputy head of mission, which contained “details of
the terrorist attacks and supporting information”. This is not the first time Pakistani authorities
have raised their concerns about the Afghan territory being used against Pakistan. Earlier, in
October 2016, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser, General (retd) Janjua conveyed the
message to US ambassador to Pakistan, David Hale that Indian and Afghan intelligence
agencies are patronising terrorists groups to attack soft targets in the country.
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar has previously claimed responsibility for the bombing at a hospital in Quetta
that killed 74 people, mostly lawyers, in August 2016. The group is also responsible for the
Easter Day bombing in Lahore in 2016. Security in Pakistan has improved in recent years,
particularly after operation Zarb-e-Azb. However, incidents of violence in recent months have
again increased concerns for the country’s security establishment.
On February 15, two people were killed in a suicide blast in Peshawar after a suicide
bomber targeted the vehicle of civil judge Asif Jadoon.
This comes two days after a suicide attack that killed 15 people in Lahore. In another incident on
February 15, at least 5 people were killed following a suicide attack in Mohmand Agency in
FATA.
On February 2, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman, Nafees Zakaria expressed concerns
over India’s drive to change the demography in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) through
settlement of non-Kashmiri Hindus saying, “It is a blatant violation of UN Security
Council Resolutions on the Kashmir dispute.”
Zakaria stressed that the BJP government aims to convert the Muslim majority in Jammu &
Kashmir into a minority. He also noted that India is terrorising the Kashmiri population through
perpetual ethnic cleansing and fake encounters. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns that
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India is converting the Muslim majority region into a minority by dividing the population on
ethnic, religious and communal lines. Many have called the move as an Israel-style policy of
creating settlements in occupied territory. Media reports claim that the BJP government has
vowed to settle members of the Hindu community in Indian Occupied Kashmir who fled the
region following an armed revolt against Indian rule in 1989. There are also reports that India
aims to set up heavily secured colonies for Hindus in IOK.
India
On February 11, seven phase elections began in 11 districts of the Indian state of Uttar
Pradesh.
The vote is widely seen as a referendum on Modi’s controversial ban on high value currency
notes to purge the economy of untaxed income and corruption. The last phase of the Uttar
Pradesh elections is scheduled for March 8, 2017 and results from the state, along with elections
in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur, will be announced on March 11 2017.
On February 14, four Indian soldiers and four militants were killed in gun battles in
Kashmir, in the second outbreak of violence between security forces and militants in
three days.
The violence began when security forces entered a village in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) on
February 10, 2017 in pursuit of suspected militants. According to media reports, seven militants
belonging to the Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) were holding a meeting when
the Indian army raided the place.
According to The News on February 10, a US commission that advises the US president
and Congress, has strongly criticised persecution of minorities, including Muslims and
Christians, in India.
The report titled ‘Constitutional and Legal Challenges Faced by Religious Minorities in India’
also recommended to the US government to link trade, aid and diplomatic interaction with India
to religious freedom and human rights. The report also noted that there are constitutional
provisions and laws in India that do not comply with international standards of freedom of
religion or belief, including Article 18 of the UN Declaration of Human Rights and Article 18 of
the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. However, India’s Ministry of External
Affairs, spokesman, Vikas Swarup, rejected the report saying, “The government does not see the
locus standi of a foreign entity like USCIRF to pronounce on the state of Indian citizens”
constitutionally protected rights.
On February 9, India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Vikas Swarup rejected
Pakistan’s demand for concrete evidence against Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz
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Saeed, saying Islamabad has everything needed to prosecute the alleged mastermind of
the 2008 Mumbai attack.
Earlier on January 30, 2017, Pakistani authorities issued orders to place Jamaat-ud-Dawa
(JuD) chief, Hafiz Saeed under house arrest and asked India to produce “concrete evidence”
against him. India alleges that the entire conspiracy in Mumbai terror attack was planned in
Pakistan and said it required political will to prosecute the case. However, Pakistan rejected
India’s demand for a “credible crackdown” on militant groups following the detention of
Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, saying it does not need New Delhi’s endorsement for its
actions.
According to Times of India on February 6, Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh said,
“Pakistan must refrain from demanding a plebiscite in Jammu & Kashmir,” adding that a
referendum must be conducted in Pakistan to check whether its citizens want to remain
there or want to merge with India.
Singh also stressed that India has always wanted peaceful relations, but Islamabad repeatedly
tries to disrupt the relationship. He added that there is an urgent need to stop terrorists
operating from Pakistani soil. The remarks came as Islamabad has increased pressure on New
Delhi to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan maintains that regional peace would remain
elusive without the resolution of the Kashmir dispute in accordance with UN resolutions.
On February 2, China blocked a US-led move at the UN to designate Jaish-e-Muhammad
(JeM) chief, Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.
The proposal was moved by the Obama Administration on January 19, 2017 and backed by the
UK and France. Beijing had earlier blocked India’s request in December 2016 to list Masood
Azhar as a global terrorist. New Delhi blames Azhar for masterminding the Pathankot airbase
attack in January 2016 and an attack on an Indian Army camp in Uri in September, 2016 that
left 19 Indian soldiers dead. China insists that it has placed a “technical hold” on Azhar’s
listing due to lack of consensus on the decision among the relevant parties.
On February 1, Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced a more than 10 %
increase in the country’s defence budget for the year 2017.
India has announced a ten percent boost to its defence budget for the second consecutive year as
the country aims to modernise its aging Soviet-era military hardware. India’s defence budget
was increased to 2.74 trillion Indian rupees (INR) compared to the previous fiscal year’s (2016-
17) budget of INR 2.49 trillion. According to Pakistan, India’s massive defence spending is
fuelling an arms race in the region.
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Afghanistan
On February 11, Dawlat Waziri, a spokesman for the Afghan Defence Ministry, said his
country supports a call by the commander of US and international forces in Afghanistan
for more foreign troops to advise Afghan security forces.
The remarks came after US Army General, John Nicholson told the Senate Armed Services
Committee in Washington on February 9, 2017 that there was “a shortfall of a few thousand”
troops in the advisory mission. Reacting to the possibility of more foreign troops in Afghanistan,
Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid threatened that it would “be nothing more than
suffering and more casualties.” Meanwhile Nicholson called for a “holistic review” of the
relationship with Pakistan and said that the US concerns about Pakistan were at the top of his
list of priorities to address with the Trump Administration. He also admitted before the Senate
Armed Services Committee that Pakistan’s strong ties with China and its increasing ties with
Russia were a cause of concern for Washington.
On February 7, at least 20 people were killed in a bomb blast outside the Supreme Court
in Kabul.
There was no claim for the attack, which follows a number of deadly bombings by the Taliban
and other militants in recent months. On the same day, a senior district official in Afghanistan’s
Farah province was killed in a bombing claimed by the Afghan Taliban.
---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer
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UNITED NATIONS
On February 12, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that
Islamophobia in parts of the world is fuelling terrorism.
Guterres said that the expression of Islamophobic feelings, policies and hate speeches in some
countries was fuelling terrorism. These Islamophobic feelings are sometimes exploited by Daesh
to make and spread its own propaganda. Guterres also warned that fighting terrorism in Syria
might fail if an inclusive political solution was not found for the Syrian people.
On February 8, Joseph Contreras, spokesperson for United Nations Assistance Mission in
Somalia (UNSOM), congratulated former Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo
on his election as Somalia’s new President and assured him that the UN is ready to assist
him in addressing the various challenges faced by Somalia.
Contreras said, “We are looking forward to work with him and his Government in tackling many
economic, political, security and humanitarian challenges facing Somalia.” He also stated that
the election of the new president of Somalia was a historic milestone in the country’s emergence
from years of chaos and civil war. The new president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, was
declared the winner after two rounds of voting by the Somali Parliament in the capital,
Mogadishu, on February 8, 2017. The runner-up candidate, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, chose to
withdraw from a third and final round of voting. Joseph Contreras also thanked the outgoing
President and his government for their achievements over the past four years.
On February 6, the United Nations expressed its deep concern over two million people in
the Syrian city of Aleppo who have been without water for almost a month.
The UN spokesperson stated that an estimated 1.8 million people in Aleppo city and rural
eastern Aleppo have been cut off from their main source of water, which is under the control of
Daesh. He mentioned that the UN continues to respond to the water crisis by supplying fuel to
operate 100 deep wells, and is also supporting emergency water trucking, reaching nearly one
million people in need of water assistance. The UN is also working closely with its partners,
including the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, to
deliver food, nutrition, health and other emergency items to the Syrian people. On February 5,
2017, a UN convoy delivered food items to 84,000 people in some areas of Aleppo city, for the
first time since September 19, 2016.
On February 1, United Nations human rights experts expressed concern that US President
Donald Trump’s executive order of immigration ban is in breach of the country’s human
rights commitments.
UN Special Rapporteur on migrants, François Crépeau; on racism, Mutuma Ruteere; and on
freedom of religion, Ahmed Shaheed termed Trump’s immigration ban discriminatory based on
38
nationality. They said it would lead to increased stigmatisation of Muslim communities. They
also said that the US’ recent policy on immigration also risks those being returned, without
proper individual assessments and asylum procedures, to places where they might be subjected
to torture and other cruel treatments.
--- Moiz Khan