Exponential growth
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Skills: noneConcepts: linear growth, exponential growth, linear scale plot, logarithmic scale plot, “hockey stick,” Moore’s Law, hosting in the cloud
Where does this topic fit?
• Internet concepts– Applications– Technology– Implications
• Internet skills– Application development– Content creation– User skills
Grow by the same amount in each time period
Grow by the same percent in each time period
Linear versus exponential growth
Year
Growth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10% 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 19 21 24
20% 10 12 14 17 21 25 30 36 43 52
50% 10 15 23 34 51 76 114 171 256 384
100% 10 20 40 80 160 320 640 1280 2560 5120
Exponential growth
Exponential growth, logarithmic scale
Exponential demo spreadsheet:
Twelve year, 100% sales growth
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/netapps/hout/techprogress/exponentialgrowth.xls
Play around with this exponential demonstration spreadsheet:http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/netapps/hout/techprogress/exponentialgrowth.xls
Moore’s Law article:ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf
For more on Moore’s Law, see:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Wolfram Alpha Moore’s law calculator:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore's+law
Resources
Self-test questions
Before answering these questions, play around with the spreadsheet at: http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/presentations/exponentialgrowth.xlsx
1. How does the graph change when the original amount is increased from $1,000 to $10,000? To $1? To $1,000,000?
2. What does the graph look like when annual growth is only 1%? 50%? 100$ 300%?3. If sales grows at only 1 percent per year, is that considered exponential growth?4. If plotted on a linear scale, will 1% growth per year be a straight line or a “hockey
stick?”5. If plotted on a logarithmic scale, will 1% growth per year be a straight line or a “hockey
stick?”6. If automobile gas mileage doubled each year, how many miles per gallon would a
typical car get in ten years?7. The first CPU chip had about 2,300 transistors in 1971. A CPU might have 2.3 billion
today. How many times has the number of transistors doubled since 1971?