SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG
Exploratory Scenario PlanningInteractive Demo
Harold Thomas, Program Manager
Sonoran Institute
Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate
Sonoran Institute
Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director
Sonoran Institute
Jim Holway, Director
Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy
Mission
Connect people/communities and natural
resources
Nexus of community, commerce, and conservation
Civil dialogue and collaboration
Sonoran Institute
Resilient Communities Starter Kit
• Adapting to Climate Change
Growing Water Smart
• Integrating water and land use planning
Exploratory Scenario Planning
• Preparing for an uncertain future
Resilient Communities and Watersheds
Tools, Training and
Technical Assistance
XSP is…
IS about
BEING PREPAREDfor whatever happens in the future
NOT envisioning what we WANT to
happen or PREDICTING what will happen in the future…
XSP Explores a Broader Range of Future Possibility
Source: Modified from Global Business Network
NowEnvisions Multiple Possible Futures…
UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES Can Be Game Changers
…From What We
Don’t Know
“Cone of Uncertainty”
Source: Modified from Denver Water/Tucson Water
C
A
B
D
NOW
Future
Tipping/Pivot/Adaptation Points
Longer-Term
Contingent/Adaptive
Actions
Near-Term
Robust/
Low-Regret
Actions
2040
XSP Workshop Process
Set time horizon, Interview / Survey, Develop Focal Question
1 Brainstorm
Driving Forces2 Rank Driving
Forces3
Identify Most
Critical
Uncertainties
4
Identify
Robust
Actions
9
Create
Scenario
Matrices
5Develop
Scenario
Narratives
6
Explore the
Implications of
Each Future
7 Create a Path
of Action 8
Workshop #1
Workshop #2
Focal ? Mtg.
Focal Question
How can changes in
urban form and
landscaping practices for
new growth and
redevelopment assist in
meeting future urban water demand along the
Colorado Front Range?
Colorado Water and Growth Dialogue
The Process
1. Interviewed various stakeholders
2. Split workshop into 2 full days
3. 4 Scenarios
4. 18 Robust Strategies
Brainstorm the Driving Forces
10 Minutes
Master List of Driving Forces1. Housing Affordability
2. Cost of Oil + Gas
3. Access to Outdoors + Recreation
4. Transportation Network / Technology
5. Economic Opportunity / Vibrancy /
Volatility
6. Net Population Growth
7. Flexibility in Working Environment /
Telecommuting
8. Millennial + Senior Housing
Preferences
9. Millennial + Senior Transportation
Preferences
10.Access to Real Estate Financing
(Builder + Buyer)
11.Perceived Strength of Job Market
12.Political Will – Local Control v.
Regionalism
13.Water Availability to Outlying Areas
14.Impact of Distributed Employment
Centers (T.O.D.)
15.Impact of TABOR on Investments
16.Attraction of “Cool” Factor; New
Urbanism
Rank the Driving Forces10 Minutes
Drivers
Certainties• Net Pop. Growth
• Impact of Distributed
Employment Centers + T.O.D
• TABOR’s Legacy and
Repercussions
• Access to the Outdoors and
Recreational Tourism
Uncertainties• Innovative Transportation
Tech.
• Lifestyle Preferences
• Economic Health
Uncertainties Axes
“Scenario Title”• Compact• Volatile
“Scenario Title”• Compact• Vibrant
“Scenario Title”• Dispersed• Vibrant• Characteristic/Condition
“Scenario Title”• Dispersed• Volatile
C
A
D
B
Scenario Matrix: Defining Four Futures
End-States
Lifestyle Preferences Dispersed vs. Compact
Economic Health Vibrant + Robust vs.Exclusive + Volatile
-X +XLIFESTYLE PREFERENCES
-Y
+Y
EC
ON
OM
IC
H
EA
LT
H
Scenarios
Read the Scenarios
10 Minutes
Brainstorm Strategies
10 Minutes
Robust Strategies
Data Management
1. Measure, Monitor +
Message/Market Data + Success
Stories
2. Develop/Track New Metrics:
Water Use/SF Categorized by
Land Use
3. Develop, Track + Compare
Community Water Budgets to
inform policies, programs, plans
and practices.
Incentives/Guidelines/Codes
1. Develop Stewardship Incentives: Tap
Fee Credits, Small Lots, etc.
2. Recommend New Design Guidelines
for government owned buildings,
public spaces and rights of way.
3. Develop municipal landscaping
codes based on best practices.
4. Agricultural Efficiency +
Conservation Measures
5. Adopt "True Cost" Pricing Policy
Robust StrategiesGeneral Planning
1. Find the Sweet Spot – Density + Pt. of
Diminishing Returns
2. Create Water WISE Land Use Plans
3. Nurture a water efficient economy
Founded on efficient industries
4. Adopt a one water approach to water resources planning.
5. Fund implementation of Long-Range
planning strategies via Utility revenues
Education1. "Water in the West Welcome Wagon"
for New + Existing homeowners,
residents, developers, policy makers
Collaboration1. Increase Regional collaboration b/w
Front Range/West Slope communities
+ representatives
2. Eliminate Barriers, Permit + Increase
Water Sharing Agreements
3. Include "Designers" in engineering
departments
4. Partner with trained Water Stewards
| DESIGNERS, builders, maintenance
crews, etc.
Contingency / Adaptation Points
Source: Modified from Denver Water/Tucson Water
C
A
B
D
NOW
Future
Tipping/Pivot/Adaptation Points
Longer-Term
Contingent/Adaptive
Actions
Near-Term
Robust/
Low-Regret
Actions
2040
Thank you!
Questions?
SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG
Harold Thomas, Program Manager
Sonoran Institute
Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate
Sonoran Institute
Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director
Sonoran Institute
Jim Holway, Director
Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy
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Tucson, AZ 85701
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