![Page 1: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice
forecasts for the freezing seas.
Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg
Tel.: (812) 352 03 07;
E-mail:[email protected]
The fourth meeting of the International Ice Charting Working Group The fourth meeting of the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG(IICWG) )
St.Petersburg, Russian Federation, April 7-11, 2003St.Petersburg, Russian Federation, April 7-11, 2003
![Page 2: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Regions General view of model regions
![Page 3: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Barents and Kara Seas
![Page 4: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Bathymetry
Grid mesh of the model
(cell dimension is
25×25 km)
![Page 5: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Initial data
![Page 6: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Principle of GRID data interpolation
(atmospheric pressure distribution)
![Page 7: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Interpolated atmospheric pressure and
calculated surface wind (forecast)
![Page 8: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Interpolated air temperature (forecast)
![Page 9: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Satellite images often do not cover the entire model area.
In this case the initial data for new forecast are prepared
by composing the new image data and results of previous forecast.
![Page 10: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Actual distribution on the new image…
![Page 11: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Previous forecast…
![Page 12: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Composite ice chart used as initial data for new forecast
![Page 13: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Sea temperature is prepared by correcting the climatic distribution in accordance with actual location of ice edge
![Page 14: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The model consists of four principal components:
1) thermal evolution of the sea water (based on the equations
of heat and salinity budget);
2) sea water dynamics (based on the equations of hydrodynamics);
3) thermal evolution of ice cover (based on the heat budget equation);
4) ice cover dynamics (based on the non-stationary equations of ice dynamics with viscous-plastic rheology).
MODEL
![Page 15: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Results
![Page 16: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Forecast of ice drift and weighted-mean thickness
![Page 17: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Forecasted and actual distribution
![Page 18: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Examples for other regions Pechora Sea
![Page 19: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Laptev Sea
![Page 20: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
East-Siberian Sea
![Page 21: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
1) Skill score of the model forecast P;
Ncorrect – number of cells in which forecasted and actual values are close (difference is not more than permissible error);
Ntotal – total number of cells2) Skill score of the inertial forecast I;
Ninert – number of cells in which the initial and final actual values are close (difference is not more than permissible error);
Ntotal – total number of cells3) Efficiency E
E = P - I
Criteria of quality
total
inert
NN
I
![Page 22: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The sense of these formulas is as follows:
The model forecast affirms: “Ice conditions will change in accordance with the model results”.
The inertial forecast affirms: “The changes of ice conditions will not be significant, and we may accept them constant.”
The forecast efficiency shows: “which of these two hypotheses is closer to reality”.
If:
1) efficiency is positive (the model forecast has higher skill score than the inertial forecast): the changes of ice conditions are significant, hence, we may not accept them constant and it is more reasonable to employ the model forecast;
2) efficiency is negative or zero (the model forecast has lower or equal skill score than the inertial forecast): it is more reasonable to assume the ice conditions constant than to employ the model forecast.
![Page 23: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
PE 68.0max
Typical formula for maximum permissible error:
where Emax – maximum permissible error, - standard error, P - natural variability of forecasted parameter for the temporal scale equal to prognostic period
As for ice concentration, maximum permissible errors coincide with standard concentration gradations defined in the “International Symbols for Sea Ice Charts and Sea Ice Nomenclature” as follows:open water – 0 tenths (0%); very open ice – 1-3 tenths (less than 35 %);open ice – 4-6 tenths (36-65 %);close ice – 7-8 tenths (66-85 %);very close ice – 9-10 tenths (more than 85%)
![Page 24: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Algebraic error
Absolute error
Skill score, %
Efficiency, %
Ice concentration, tenths
0.03 1.75 85.6 5.0
Ice drift velocity, cm/s
2 5 79.9 26.0
Ice drift direction, degrees
-13 35 84.0 48.4
Ice thickness, cm 1 8 88.9
Equivalent thickness of ridges, cm
-3 3 85.9
Ice pressure, points (3 point scale)
0.08 0.19 7.8
Verification Generalized results of ice forecasts
![Page 25: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Statistical distribution
of ice concentration
forecast errors
Algebraic errors
Absolute errors
![Page 26: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Interface General view of interface panel
![Page 27: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Entering the forecast parameters
![Page 28: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Entering initial data
![Page 29: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Running
![Page 30: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Results demonstration
![Page 31: Experience of short-range (1-5 days) numerical ice forecasts for the freezing seas. Sergey Klyachkin, Zalman Gudkovich, Roman Guzenko Arctic and Antarctic](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081514/56649d9f5503460f94a89c02/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Conclusions
The main directions of development.•Improvement of methodology of initial ice chart composing;
•Improvement of methodology of initial water temperature correction;
•More detailed simulations of the sea currents (including tides);
•More accurate estimate of horizontal heat fluxes in the near-edge zones;
•Elaboration of fast ice boundary forecasting.