![Page 1: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
1
Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in theNBA Draft
Stanford Sports Analytics Club
Eli Shayer, Travis Chen, Nicholas Canova, and Ryan Chen
2016 Basketball Analytics Summit
![Page 2: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
2
Overview
1 Framework
2 Regression Analysis
3 Clustering Analysis
4 Play Type Homogeneity
5 Play Types
6 Results & Conclusions
![Page 3: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
3
Framework
![Page 4: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
4
Framework
Framework to Assess NCAA Offensive Systems
Metric selection
Definition of “star” & “bust”
![Page 5: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
5
Framework to Assess NCAA Offensive Systems
![Page 6: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
6
Framework to Assess NCAA Offensive Systems
![Page 7: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
7
Framework to Assess NCAA Offensive Systems
![Page 8: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
8
Framework to Assess NCAA Offensive Systems
![Page 9: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
9
Metric Selection
![Page 10: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
10
Metric Selection
![Page 11: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
11
Metric Selection
![Page 12: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
12
Stars and Busts
Star Player Pick # Total WSKevin Durant 2 38.3
Anthony Davis 1 37.9Brandon Roy 6 35.4
Damian Lillard 6 34.6James Harden 3 33.7
Al Horford 3 33.3Kevin Love 5 31.6
Derrick Rose 1 30.0Blake Griffin 1 29.6Rajon Rondo 21 29.1
.
.
....
.
.
.Carl Landry 31 21.4
Ryan Anderson 21 20.9Brook Lopez 10 20.3
Bust Player Pick # Net WSAdam Morrison 3 -19.3
Greg Oden 1 -17.4Hasheem Thabeet 2 -15.4
Jonny Flynn 6 -14.9Wesley Johnson 4 -12.3Joe Alexander 8 -11.7
Thomas Robinson 5 -11.5Patrick O’Bryant 9 -10.9
Dion Waiters 4 -10.8Corey Brewer 7 -10.7
.
.
....
.
.
.Luke Babbitt 16 -6.4
Earl Clark 14 -6.3Jordan Hill 8 -6.1
![Page 13: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
13
Regression Analysis
![Page 14: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
14
Projections for Chad Ford’s Big Board
Rank Name eWS 95% CI
1 Ben Simmons 16.4 (4.0, 28.8)
2 Brandon Ingram 3.1 (-7.2, 13.4)
3 Dragan Bender Intl. –
4 Jamal Murray 11.4 (-4.0, 26.8)
5 Buddy Hield 14.3 (-1.1, 29.7)
6 Henry Ellenson 2.4 (-7.9, 12.7)
7 Kris Dunn 10.7 (-3.4, 24.8)
8 Marquese Chriss 1.8 (-8.5, 12.1)
9 Jaylen Brown -2.1 (-17.5, 13.3)
10 Jakob Poeltl 11.5 (-0.9, 23.9)
11 Deyonta Davis 9.0 (-1.3, 19.3)
12 Ivan Rabb 9.5 (-0.8, 19.8)
13 Furkan Korkmaz Intl. –
14 Denzel Valentine 13.9 (-1.5, 29.4)
15 Domantas Sabonis 13.5 (3.2, 23.8)
Rank Name eWS 95% CI
16 Skal Labissiere -7.0 (-19.4, 5.4)
17 Tyler Ulis 11.6 (-2.5, 25.7)
18 Diamond Stone -2.5 (-14.9, 9.9)
19 Timothe Luwawu Intl. –
20 Thon Maker Intl. –
21 Dejounte Murray -1.7 (-10.3, 6.9)
22 Ante Zizic Intl. –
23 Wade Baldwin IV 6.1 (-2.5, 14.7)
24 Demetrius Jackson 2.1 (-12.0, 16.2)
25 DeAndre Bembry 7.4 (-8.1, 22.8)
26 Thomas Bryant -1.3 (-13.7, 11.1)
27 Jonathan Jeanne Intl. –
28 Ben Bentil 7.8 (-4.6, 20.2)
29 Brice Johnson 16.1 (5.8, 26.4)
30 Grayson Allen 14.8 (-0.6, 30.2)
![Page 15: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
15
Clustering Analysis
![Page 16: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
16
Cluster Analysis
![Page 17: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
17
Representative Players by Cluster
Cluster Star Bust Description T S B Net WS/P
1
UF ’11
(Chandler Parsons)
UConn ’09
(Hasheem Thabeet) Balanced 22 2 2 -0.105
2
Mich. St. ’12
(Draymond Green)
Kansas ’12
(Thomas Robinson)
–Iso
+P&R +Handoff 49 3 2 -0.082
3
Marquette ’11
(Jimmy Butler)
L’ville ’09
(Terrence Williams) +Transition 62 4 5 -0.263
4
Arizona St. ’09
(James Harden)
UF ’07
(Corey Brewer) +Spot-Up 43 5 1 1.058
5
Morehead St. ’11
(Kenneth Faried)
Syracuse ’09
(Jonny Flynn)
–P&R –Iso –Off-Screen
+Cut +Spot-Up 13 1 4 -2.138
6
Texas ’07
(Kevin Durant)
Duke ’12
(Austin Rivers)
–Spot-Up
+Hand-Off +Iso 48 4 2 2.592
7
Davidson ’06
(Stephen Curry)
Gonzaga ’06
(Adam Morrison) +Iso 59 9 6 1.912
8
Fresno St. ’10
(Paul George)
Kansas ’10
(Cole Aldrich)
–P&R –Iso
+Post-Up 34 2 5 -0.976
![Page 18: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
18
Net WS vs. Cosine Similarity of NCAA/NBASystems
![Page 19: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
19
Play Type Homogeneity
![Page 20: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
20
Play Type Homogeneity
All players average Euclidean distance: 0.1142Position Star Average Dist Bust Average Dist
All 0.1093 0.1426PG 0.1014 0.1813SG 0.1107 0.1627SF 0.0727 0.0904PF 0.1325 0.0982C 0.0942 0.1764
![Page 21: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
21
Play Types
![Page 22: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
22
Stars vs. Busts Team Play Type Differential - PointGuards
Star PGs come from systems that emphasize transition andpick and roll passing
![Page 23: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
23
Stars vs. Busts Team Play Type Differential -Shooting Guards
Bust SGs tend to come from teams that emphasize post upand don’t spot up
![Page 24: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
24
Stars vs. Busts Team Play Type Differential -Small Forwards
The proportion of isolation and spot-up plays differentiates starand bust SFs
![Page 25: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
25
Stars vs. Busts Team Play Type Differential -Power Forwards
Star PFs come from systems that de-emphasize isolation &spot-up shooting and emphasize post-up scoring
![Page 26: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
26
Stars vs. Busts Team Play Type Differential -Centers
Star Cs tend to come from teams that transition often, perhapsas a result of defensive play, and fewer P&R Ball Handler plays
![Page 27: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
27
Results & Conclusions
![Page 28: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
28
Thank you!
Questions?
Eli Shayer [email protected] Chen [email protected] Canova [email protected] Chen [email protected]
stanfordsportsanalytics.com
![Page 29: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
29
Appendix A: Actual vs. Expected WS – 1st Round
![Page 30: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
30
Appendix B: Actual vs. Expected WS – Top 10
![Page 31: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
31
Appendix C: Actual vs. Expected WS:International Players
![Page 32: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
32
Appendix D: NCAA/Intl./HS Coach Comparison
µWS σWS µE [WS]95% CI ofµNetWS
International 3.0 5.3 4.4 -1.3 ± 0.9High School 9.3 12.6 8.2 1.1 ± 5.3
NCAA 7.3 9.0 6.4 0.9 ± 0.8
w/ Top Coach 8.1 9.1 7.6 0.5 ± 1.3w/o Top Coach 6.6 8.9 5.4 1.2 ± 1.1
µNetWS = µWS − µE [WS]
![Page 33: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
33
Appendix E: Stars vs. Busts Individual Play TypeDifferential - Point Guards
![Page 34: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
34
Appendix F: Stars vs. Busts Individual Play TypeDifferential - Shooting Guards
![Page 35: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
35
Appendix G: Stars vs. Busts Individual Play TypeDifferential - Small Forwards
![Page 36: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
36
Appendix H: Stars vs. Busts Individual Play TypeDifferential - Power Forwards
![Page 37: Examining the Effect of NCAA Systems in the NBA Draft](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051705/579077731a28ab6874bdc8e2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Examining theEffect ofNCAA
Systems in theNBA Draft
StanfordSports
Analytics Club
Framework
RegressionAnalysis
ClusteringAnalysis
Play TypeHomogeneity
Play Types
Results &Conclusions
37
Appendix I: Stars vs. Busts Individual Play TypeDifferential - Centers