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Low Cost Carrier MROAviation Week‘s MRO
Wolfgang Kurth19. October 2005
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LCC Market Share in Europe
LCCs and the Future of the Business Model
Drivers of the Business Model
LCCs and MROs
Conclusion
Agenda
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Business EnvironmentV
OLU
ME/G
DP
TIME
Africa
Asia
Middle East
Latin America
PIONEERSTAGE
TRANSITION RAPID GROWTHSTAGE
TRANSITION
U.S. andEurope
MATURESTAGE
GDP
Volume
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For what reason would you fly more often?
11%11%
8%
41%
8%6%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
upgrades schedule safetyground
low fares more FFP´s
safetyboard
others
Source: IATA Online Survey 2003
Low Fares Trigger Demand
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0
50
100
150
200
2001 2003F 2005F 2007F 2009F
Pessimistic
Optimistic
Number of passengers of Ryanair & easyJet at basis of announced capacities
19%
15%
30%
Prediction for the European Low Cost Market
2001E–2009F
Market potential of the GermanLow Cost Segment2001E–2009F
1 Low case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach current UK / Ireland level (0.25 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 72MM) 2 High case: Number of no-frills journeys in Europe reach the same level as currently in the U.S. (0.5 trips / capita) over 8 years (number of passengers = 195MM)Source: Analyst Reports, Monitor Analysis
510
16
32
83
21
42
0
25
50
75
100
Total Population
International
Domestic
Estimation formed by the use of US market share & travel frequency to the German population
PAX(m)
PAX(m)
Market potential for European LCCs
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Growth Rates and Market Shares
Europe: annual growth rate p.a. for LCCs, passenger in mio,
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Market Share of European LCCs
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LCC Market Shares by Country
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Caption:
Ryanair
easyjet
Volareweb
bmi Baby
Hapag-Lloyd Express
Germanwings
Sterling
Skyeurope
jet2
LCC routes 2001