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European Climate Data andInformation Productsfor Monitoring and Assessment Needs
Albert Klein Tank, KNMI, Netherlands
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
North SeaStorm surgeStorm surge
Sea level rise
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Port of Rotterdam
North SeaStorm surgeStorm surge
River Rhine
Sea level rise
River RhineFloods
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
February 1953
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Port of Rotterdam
St b i “M l t” (1997)Storm surge barrier “Maeslant” (1997)
Nowadays, the design criteria of Dutch Delta works are based on:
• historical observations(return periods of extremes and trends)
• projections of future climate
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Projections of future climate at regional scalej g
Ensemble of modelprojections available(GCMs + RCMs)
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
( )
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Projections of future climate at regional scale
Top-down approach
j g
emission
climatesensitivity /
global warming
regional climate change
range of impacts
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010
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Projections of future climate at regional scale
Top-down approach Bottom-up approach
j g
emission
vulnerabilitynow
observedclimate var.& change
non-climaticpressures
climatesensitivity /
global warming
adaptationoptions
monito
regional climate change
climatechange
narratives
futurevulnerability
socio-econ.scenarios
ring
range of impacts
robustmeasures
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010
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Historical observations
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Historical observations
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
1) in-situ observations
2) t llit li t d t d2) satellite climate data records
3) (regional) reanalyses of past weather
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Historical observations
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
1) in-situ observationslong-term records (50-100yr) but sparse
2) t llit li t d t d2) satellite climate data recordsspatially extensive but short (<30yr)
3) (regional) reanalyses of past weathercomplete but expensive and some bias
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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In-situ observations of precipitation extremesp p
Increase inIncrease in precipitationfraction due to heavy
t ievents is seen in other regions too (IPCC-AR4)( )
Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca knmi nl
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
http://eca.knmi.nl
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In-situ observations of precipitation extremes
Van den Besselaar et al., Int.J.Climatol., submitted
p p
Reduction is inqualitative agreementwith model projections
5-day extremesNorthern Europe
( ) with model projectionsfor the 21st Centurye.g. Kharin et al.J.Climate, 2007
winter (DJF)
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Satellite climate data records
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Decadal variability in solar energy potentialy gy p
Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
( , )
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Decadal variability in solar energy potentialy gy p
Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
( , )
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Reanalyses of past weather y p
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Reanalyses of past weather
The 1894 storm
y p
The 1894 stormin NW Europe
included in the20th Century Reanalysis by C l Q lCompo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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L LL
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 NovemberCompo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011
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Towards more integrated products for Europeg p p
Climate Indicator Bulletins (CIBs)
• blend of data from stations, satellitesd land reanalyses
• user-oriented
• f t d d i bilit i i t• focus on trends and variability in impact relevant indicators of climate extremes
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Moscow heat wave, July 2010
MSUUAH
, y
In-situNOAA
ERA-InterimECMWF
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Courtesy: John Christy (top), Adrian Simmons (bottom)
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Moscow heat wave, July 2010, y
31 days withT-max > 25°C against 9.5 days in a normal July
Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca.knmi.nl
16 nights with T-min > 20°C against 0.5 night in a normal July
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Final remarks: user interaction
• Interaction between providers and stakeholders helpsspecify the needs in more detail
• I t t t di d i t th t i ti• Important to discuss and communicate the uncertainties(due to emissions, model limitations, internal variability, observational gaps/changes and errors)
• Lesson learned: guidanceinformation is crucial
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
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Thank youy
http://climexp.knmi.nl
http://www.euro4m.eu http://eca.knmi.nl
Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
p // p //