Download - ET2050 The SASI Model Michael Wegener ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Milan, 7-8 February 2013
ET2050The SASI Model
Michael Wegener
ET2050 Project Group Meeting, Milan, 7-8 February 2013
2
The SASI Model
3
The SASI model
There are three methods to model the impacts ofpolicies on regional economic development:• Multiplier effects of infrastructure invest
ments (Aschauer, 1993)• Regional production functions incorporating
infrastructure as production factor (Jochimsen, 1966; Biehl, 1986, 1991)
• Interregional trade flows as a function of interregional transport costs (Peschel, 1981; Bröcker, 1995) and input output linkages (Echenique, 1990) and economies of scale (Krugman, Venables,1995)
SASI
4
The SASI model
The SASI model is a recursive dynamic simulationmodel of socio economic development of regions inEurope under assumptions about • European economic development and
external net migration • European transport policies (TEN-T) and
regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)
The SASI model differs from other regional economicmodels by modelling not only production (thedemand side of regional labour markets) but alsopopulation (the supply side of labour markets).
5
Regional production function
In state of the art models of regional development based on production functions the classic production factors land, labour and capital are replaced by location factors, such as:• Economic structure• Productivity• Accessibility• Labour supply• Services• Settlement structure• Research and development• Education• Quality of life
6
Regional production function
Extended production function:
where Ai is potential accessibility:
...
iiiii AKRLQ Production
AccessibilityLand
Labour Capital
Others
Travel cost betweenregions i and j
j
ijji cWA )(exp
Destinationsin region j
Accessibilityof region i
7
Regional net migration function
Net migration function:
where
• qi(t–3) is GDP per capita of region i• q(t-3) is average European GDP per capita• vi(t–3) is quality of life of region i• v(t-3) is average European quality of life … all lagged by three years
5.1)3(
)3(5.1
)3(
)3()(
tv
tv
tq
tqtm ii
i
Attractiveness as place to work
Attractivenessas place to live
Net migrationof region iin year t
8
GDP
AccessibilityProduction
function
Employment
Migrationfunction
PopulationIncome
Labourforce
Unemployment
SASImodel Transfer
policiesTransportpolicies
9
SASImodel
RegionsRegions
10
The AlpenCors Project:a Regional Application
11
The AlpenCorS project (2004 2005)
The Interreg III B programme "Alpine Space" (2000 2006) aimed at developing a concept for economic and spatial development in the pan European Corridor V between France, Italy, Slovenia and Austria.
The project AlpenCorS ("Alpen Corridor South") focused on the central segment of the corridors south of the Alps. The SASI model was to assess the effects of the intersection with Corridor I, the Brenner Corridor.
12
GDPpercapita(EU27+2=100)Scenario0002021ReferenceScenario
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
GDPpercapita(EU27+2=100)Scenario0002021ReferenceScenario
13
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
Accessibilityroad/rail/airtravelScenario0002021ReferenceScenario
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
Accessibilityroad/rail/airtravelScenarioAS1v.0002021Brennertunneleffect
14
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
AccessibilityroadfreightScenarioAS1v.0002021Brennertunneleffect
Trento
Bolzano
Venezia
Zürich
Torino
Milano
Lyon
Wien München
Strasbourg
Ljubljana
GDPpercapita(EU27+2=100)ScenarioAS1v.0002021Brennertunneleffect
15
The STEPs Project:a European Application
16
The STEPs project (2004 2006)
The EU 6th RTD Framework project STEPs (Scenarios for the Transport System and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects) developed and assessed possible scenarios for the EU transport system and energy supply of the future.
In the project five urban/regional models were applied to forecast the long term economic, social and environmental impacts of different scenarios of fuel price increases and different combinations of infrastructure, technology and demand regulation policies.
17
STEPs Scenarios
The scenarios combined three rates of energy price increases with three sets of policies:
Fuel price increase
+1% p.a. +4% p.a. +7% p.a.
Do nothing A 1 B 1 C 1
Business as usual A0 B0 C0
Infrastructure & technology A1 B1 C1
Demand regulation A2 B2 C2
All policies A3 B3 C3
* € of 2008 per litre A 1 Reference Scenario
2030
1.60 €*2030
3.33 €*2030
6.80 €*
2030
3.35 €*2030
6.95 €*2030
23.25 €*
18
European policy scenarios
A1 C1 Infrastructure and technology Petrol/Diesel per km (down to 4 % p.a.) Alternative vehicles/fuels (up to 33 %) European rail speed (up to +2 % p.a.) Regional rail speed (up to +1.7 % p.a.) Rail freight speed (up to +2 % p.a.)
A2 C2 Demand regulation Fuel tax (up to +5 % p.a.) Kerosene tax (up to 200 % of petrol tax) Road pricing (up to +10 % p.a.) Public transport fares (down to 1.7 % p.a.) Car/lorry cost per km (up to +3 % p.a.) Rail freight cost (down to 1.5 % p.a.)
A3 C3 All policies
19
A 1Scenario A 1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travel (million)in year 2031
180 200160 180140 160120 140100 120 80 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 20
20
Scenario A1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travel Difference fromScenarioA 1 2031 (%) 40 50
30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40
21
Scenario B1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travelDifference fromScenarioA 12031 (%) 40 50
30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40
22
Scenario C1Accessibilityroad/rail/air travelDifference fromScenarioA 12031 (%) 40 50
30 40 20 30 10 20 0 10 10 0 20 10 30 20 40 30 50 40
23
Scenario A 1GDP per capita2031 (€ of 2005)
54 60 48 54 42 48 36 42 30 36 24 30 18 24 12 18 6 12 0 6
24
Scenario A1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)
8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8
25
Scenario B1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)
8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8
26
Scenario C1GDP per capitaDifference fromScenario A 12031 (%)
8 10 6 8 4 6 2 4 0 2 2 0 4 2 6 4 8 6 10 8
27
The SASI Model in ET2050
28
Ongoing model developments
• Extension of forecasting horizon from 2030 to 2050
• Conversion of the region system to the 2006 NUTS 3 classification
• Higher spatial resolution in Croatia and other Western Balkan countries
• Simple model of long distance passenger and freight transport
• Calculation of environmental indicators as energy consumption and CO2 emissions of transport
29
Questions answered
How will European• infrastructure investments (TEN T)• regional subsidies (EFRE, CAP)• rising energy costs
affect • regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity?
30
Baseline Scenario
The Baseline Scenario for 2030 and 2050 is basedon BAU assumptions about • European economic development,• European net migration,• European transport policies,• European regional subsidies.
and will produce forecasts of:• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity.
31
A Scenarios ("MEGAs")
The exploratory A Scenarios ("MEGAs") will differfrom the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regionalsubsidies that support the concentration ofeconomic activities and population in the majormetropolitan areas and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity.
32
B Scenarios ("Cities")
The exploratory B Scenarios ("Cities") will differ from the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regionalsubsidies that support the concentration ofeconomic activities and population in the majorEuropean cities and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity
33
C Scenarios ("Regions")
The exploratory C Scenarios ("Regions") will differfrom the baseline scenario by assumptions aboutEuropean transport policies and regional subsidies that support the development ofeconomic activities and population in small towns and rural regions and will forecast:• European economic development,• regional economic development, • regional population/migration,• interregional travel and goods flows,• energy consumption/CO2 emissions, • territorial cohesion and polycentricity
34
Exploratory scenarios
In addition to the criteria for the definition of scenariosproposed above, also other criteria might be applied todefine the exploratory scenarios:• They should be differentiated in space, i.e. address
the European, national and regional scale.• They should be differentiated in time, i.e. account for
different phases of development of countries.• They should be combined with the same framework assumptions as the baseline scenario.• In addition, they can be combined with alternative framework assumptions.
35
Alternative framework conditions
The exploratory scenarios using the same framework conditions as the Baseline Scenario can be combinedwith alternative framework conditions:
36
Ranking of scenarios
It is very likely that the exploratory scenarios perform differently with respect to major goals of the EU:
37
Results (1)
• Population indicators: Population by age, sex, nationality, labour force participation, education, net migration and net commuting by NUTS 3 region per year
• Economic indicators: GDP by industry, by worker, by capita, employment by industry and unemploy ment by NUTS 3 region per year
• Accessibility indicators: Accessibility by type (travel/goods) and mode (road/rail, road/rail/air) by NUTS 3 region per year
38
Results (2)
• Transport indicators: Travel and goods flows between NUTS 3 regions by mode per year.
• Environmental indictors: Energy consumption and CO2 emissions of transport between NUTS 3 region per year.
• Cohesion indicators: Cohesion and polycentricity indicators of accessibility and GDP per capita of NUTS 3 regions per year
39
Typical graphical output
• Time series diagrams by country or macro region by scenario
• Maps indicators by NUTS 3 region by year indicator differences between scenarios by NUTS 3 region per year
• 3D surfaces indicators by NUTS 3 region per year differences between scenarios by NUTS 3 region per year
40
Wegener, M., Bökemann, D. (1998): SASI Model: Model Structure. Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 40. Dortmund: Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund. http://www.raumplanung.uni dortmund.de/irpud/ fileadmin/irpud/content/documents/publications/ber40.pdf.
Wegener, M. (2008): SASI Model Description. Working Paper 08/01. Dortmund: Spiekermann & Wegener Stadt und Regionalforschung. http://www.spiekermann wegener. de/mod/pdf/AP_0801.pdf.
Fiorello, D., Huismans, G., López, E., Marques, C., Steen berghen, T., Wegener, M., Zografos, G. (2006): Transport Strategies under the Scarcity of Energy Supply. Final Report of the EU project STEPs – Scenarios for the Transport and Energy Supply and their Potential Effects, edited by A. Monzon and A. Nuijten. Den Haag: Buck Consultants International. http://www.steps eu.com/reports.htm.
More information