Hatchery Reform Project, February 2003
Estimating integrative effects of the H’s on salmon
populations
Life-cycle model(effects on abundance, productivity,
diversity, spatial structure)
Hatchery effects
Habitat effects
Harvest effects
Land use
Physical processes
Other ecologicaleffects
Integrative Analyses in Recovery Planning
• Technical questions in the TRT/Shared Strategy Watershed Technical Guidance Document address integrative assessment.
• The TRT is providing technical analyses to integrate the effects of the H’s as part of the Snohomish Case Study.
Snohomish watershed case study: overall purpose
• Determine if we can actually use the Technical Guidance in a real watershed recovery plan.
• Identify priority habitat, hatchery and harvest management actions that are consistent with achieving salmon population targets.
• Assist the Snohomish Forum in identifying priority areas for action and prioritizing types of actions needed to improve VSP for the Snohomish chinook populations.
Snohomish watershed case study: participants
• King County, Snohomish County• Tulalip Tribes• WDFW• Seattle City Light• City of Everett• NOAA Fisheries• Snohomish Technical Committee
Structure of Snohomish watershed planning groups
Technical Committee
Policy Development Committee
Forum
Ecological Analysis for
Salmon Conservation
Develop conservation
scenarios
Evaluate conservation scenarios using
biological criteria
SocioeconomicAnalysis
Goals
Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion
in plan
How Does the Guidance Document Help This Process?
• Ecological Analysis– Questions guide compilation of information
• Development of Scenarios– Scenarios are based on hypotheses about how
the system works• Evaluation of Scenarios
– VSP is the focus for assessing population status
Life-cycle model(effects on abundance, productivity,
diversity, spatial structure)
Hatchery effects
Habitat effects
Harvest effects
Land use
Physical processes
Other ecologicaleffects
Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions
Egg
Fry
Smolt
Adult
Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions
Egg
Fry
Smolt
Adult
e.g., peak flows, sediment, temperature
e.g., peak flows, temperature, riparian condition, juvenile rearing capacity, hatcheryinteractions e.g., juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery fish,estuarine/marine habitat conditions, harvest
e.g., peak or low flows, temperature, sediment, spawning habitat capacity
Hypothetical alternative action sets
I. Improve riparian condition, reduce competition for spawning habitat with hatchery fish, adult harvest unchanged
II. In addition to #1, improve estuarine & floodplain habitat accessibility, reduce effects of competition with hatchery juveniles, reduce harvest in short term, increase harvest as habitat capacity increases.
improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild spawner interactions
Hypothetical alternative action set I
Harvest management plan I
Hypothetical alternative action set II
improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild juvenile &
spawner interactions
Harvest management plan II
Example of integrative model results
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I
years
Popu
latio
n si
ze
(or g
row
th ra
te o
r div
ersi
ty)
Life-cycle model(effects on VSP)
Hatchery effects
Habitat effects
Harvest effects
Land/water use
Physical processes
Other ecologicaleffects
HSRG BRAP PSSMP
W-shedgroup
ESAESA
PSSMP
PFMCPSC
Existing groups developing alternatives
• Habitat: watershed groups• Harvest: co-managers, Puget Chinook
Harvest Management Plan • Hatchery: co-managers and HSRG Regional
Reviews
Next steps—development of alternatives
The TRT will work with co-managers, watershed groups, and other interested
parties to develop sets of alternative actions in harvest, habitat and hatchery management that can be used
in integrative analyses
Example of integrative model results: adding multiple population
risk levels
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II
habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I
years
Popu
latio
n si
ze
(or g
row
th ra
te o
r div
ersi
ty)
Questions for Development Committee
• What are the key points of interface where scenarios combining actions across the H’s can be developed?