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Page 1 of 52
15 May 2018
ESN Top Picks
Roadshows
Corporate Events
Tactical Sector Views
RECOMMENDATION CHANGES
Trigano upgraded to Buy from Neutral Sharp increase in H1-18 results: upward revision to forecasts
NEWS BY SECTOR
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Leonardo (Buy) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation
AUTOMOBILES & PARTS Landi Renzo (Neutral) Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed
BANKS Banca MPS (Buy) Juliet disposal completed Commerzbank (Neutral) Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast Crédit Agricole SA (Accumulate) Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers
BASIC RESOURCES Altri (Buy) 1Q18 results and valuation update SURTECO (Buy) Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed
FINANCIAL SERVICES Anima (Accumulate) Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) TIP Q1 18 results CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A. (Buy) Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed
FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS Marr (Neutral) Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability
GENERAL INDUSTRIALS Cembre (Neutral) Solid results in Q1'18
GENERAL RETAILERS Yoox Net-A-Porter (Neutral) Q1 18 revenues results
HEALTHCARE Terveystalo (Accumulate) Q1 results out on Wednesday
HOUSEHOLD GOODS Fila (Buy) Q1 18E estimates
ESN Analyser
Investment Research
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Page 2 of 52
ESN Analyser
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Biesse (Accumulate) Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders Carraro (Buy) Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance Emak (Accumulate) Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather Exel Composites (Accumulate) Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation Fincantieri (Buy) New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea Sector News Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers
INSURANCE Allianz (Neutral) Q1 results slightly better than expected AXA (Accumulate) Time to integrate XL
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Astaldi (Reduce) EUR 193m new orders in LatAm Eiffage (Accumulate) A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project SIAS (Buy) Sound growth expected in Q1
MEDIA Mediaset (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market
PERSONAL GOODS Geox (Neutral) Q1 18 sales results expected weak Marimekko (Neutral) Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50 Technogym (Neutral) Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth
SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Exprivia (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel Reply (Neutral) Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected
SUPPORT SERVICES ENAV (Accumulate) Steady revenues but better margins Openjobmetis (Accumulate) Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Acotel (Reduce) Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist Vodafone (Accumulate) YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance
TRAVEL & LEISURE Gamenet (Buy) Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout Trigano (Buy) Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts
UTILITIES EDP (Accumulate) Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP Erg (Accumulate) More wind and capacity off-set decreasing incentives
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Blue Chips Top Picks
Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of
14 / 0 5 / 2 0 18
Ta r ge t
P r i c e
Upsi de /
Downsi deEnt r y da t e
Ent r y
pr i c e
Ent r y
pr i c e
( D i v .
Adj )
Tot a l
Re t ur n
Ent r y To
Da t e
Re l . Cml . d
pe r f . v s Eur o
S t ox x
AS M L Net herlands Technology Hardware & EquipmentLong Buy 169.25 200.00 18% 13/ 02/ 2018 158.05 156.65 8 . 0 % 5.9%
ENDES A Spain Ut ilit ies Long Accumulat e 19.61 22.50 15% 23/ 04/ 2018 17.80 17.80 10 . 2 % 8.0%
I NDI TEX Spain General Ret ailers Long Buy 26.87 35.50 32% 15/ 03/ 2018 24.21 24.21 11. 0 % 6.7%
I NTES A S ANP AOLO It aly Banks Long Accumulat e 3.15 3.50 11% 14/ 03/ 2018 3.10 3.10 1. 6 % -3.7%
LEONARDO It aly Aerospace & Def ense Long Buy 9.43 12.25 30% 07/ 02/ 2018 9.06 9.06 4 . 1% 4.1%
P UM A Germany Personal Goods Long Buy 417.00 492.00 18% 28/ 02/ 2018 385.50 373.00 11. 8 % 4.5% source: ESN Members’ estimates
M/S Caps Top Picks
Compa ny Count r y S e c t or I de a Ra t i ngP r i c e a s of
14 / 0 5 / 2 0 18
Ta r ge t
P r i c e
Upsi de /
Downsi deEnt r y da t e
Ent r y
pr i c e
Ent r y pr i c e
( D i v . Adj )
Tot a l
Re t ur n
Ent r y To
Da t e
Re l . Cml . d
pe r f . v s
Eur o
S t ox x
ACERI NOX Spain Basic Resources Long Buy 11.85 14.00 18% 01/ 03/ 2018 12.30 12.30 - 3 . 7 % -7.1%
ARCADI S Net herlands General Indust r ials Long Buy 16.66 25.00 50% 27/ 03/ 2018 15.06 14.59 14 . 2 % 6.2%
BI OCARTI S Belgium Healt hcare Long Buy 13.02 15.90 22% 12/ 04/ 2018 12.66 12.66 2 . 8 % -1.4%
BOS KALI S WES TM I NS TER Net herlands Mat erials, Const ruct ion & Inf rast ruct ure Long Buy 23.88 33.00 38% 26/ 03/ 2018 23.78 22.78 4 . 8 % -2.5%
CORES TATE CAP I TAL HOLDI NG S . A . Germany Financial Services Indust r ials Long Buy 46.75 72.00 54% 13/ 02/ 2018 49.35 47.35 - 1. 3 % -7.0%
FERRATUM Germany Financial Services Banks Long Buy 26.40 30.00 14% 13/ 02/ 2018 26.45 26.27 0 . 5 % -5.2%
J UM BO Greece General Ret ailers Long Buy 15.04 17.00 13% 11/ 10/ 2017 15.38 15.21 - 1. 1% -0.3%
KWS S AAT Germany Chemicals Long Buy 302.50 348.00 15% 05/ 01/ 2018 293.00 293.00 3 . 2 % 1.6%
P I AGGI O It aly Aut omobiles & Part s Long Buy 2.18 3.10 42% 16/ 01/ 2018 2.36 2.30 - 5 . 3 % -8.7%
S AI P EM It aly Oil Services Long Buy 3.41 4.40 29% 30/ 04/ 2018 3.36 3.36 1. 4 % -0.8%
S I F GROUP Net herlands Alt ernat ive Energy Long Buy 18.72 22.00 18% 01/ 03/ 2018 17.20 16.90 10 . 8 % 7.1%
S ONAE CAP I TAL Port ugal Travel & Leisure Long Buy 1.02 1.05 3% 19/ 04/ 2018 0.94 0.94 8 . 1% 3.3%
THE NAVI GATOR COM P ANY Port ugal Basic Resources Long Neut ral 4.98 5.10 2% 19/ 03/ 2018 4.50 4.50 10 . 7 % 11.2%
VALM ET Finland Indust r ial Engineering Long Buy 15.81 18.50 17% 05/ 03/ 2018 16.06 16.06 - 1. 6 % -7.3% source: ESN Members’ estimates
This selection of stocks is not intended to provide a recommended portfolio; therefore there is no point in comparing its performance with any benchmark. The performance of each stock has to be considered independently. Risk factors are taken into account when selecting individual stocks but the risk profile of the selection as a whole is not considered. The approach used to select each investment idea is opportunistic with
an absolute return target.
ESN Top Picks
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Page 4 of 52
SUBJECT LOCATION EVENT DATE
Masmovil Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 17/05/2018
Technogym Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 22/05/2018
INTERPUMP Lisboa Cross-country Company Roadshow 29/05/2018
Roadshows
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Page 5 of 52
Corporate Events
Company CountryBloomberg
codeDate Event Type Description
ACCOR France AC FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.05
ADIDAS Germany ADS GR 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 2.60
ADLER MODEMAERKTE Germany ADD GY 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 0.05
ALLIANZ Germany ALV GY 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 8.00
BIOTEST Germany BIO3 GR 15/05/2018 AGM Full year 2017 AGM
EZENTIS Spain EZE SM 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results
FLEURY MICHON France FLE FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.10
HEIDELBERG CEMENT AG Germany HEI GR 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 1.90
IMERYS France NK FP 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed EUR 2.08
LAFARGEHOLCIM Sw itzerland LHN VX 15/05/2018 Dividend Payment Full year 2017 Dividend payment date - proposed CHF 2.00
LEONARDO Italy LDO IM 15/05/2018 AGM Full year 2017 AGM - 2nd call {if required}
MERCK Germany MRK GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast {press}
MLP Germany MLP GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast
PROCREDIT HOLDING Germany PCZ GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results
Germany PCZ GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Earnings conference call / Webcast
SERGE FERRARI GROUP France SEFER FP 15/05/2018 Ex Dividend Date Full year 2017 Ex-dividend date - proposed EUR 8.00
SIAS Italy SIS IM 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results
WCM AG Germany WCMK GR 15/05/2018 Results Q1 2018 Results
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Tactical Sector Allocation Matrix January 2018
SectorCurrent Tactical
ViewAction
Previous
Tactical View
Stoxx 600
Weighting
LATEST REVIEW
DATE
Automobiles & Parts = = 4% Nov-17
Banks = = 14% Nov-17
Basic Resources = = 3% Nov-17
Chemicals = = 4% Nov-17
Construction & Materials = = 3% Nov-17
Financial Services = = 2% Nov-17
Food & Beverage - - 6% Nov-17
Healthcare = = 13% Nov-17
Industrial Good & Services + + 12% Nov-17
Insurance = = 6% Nov-17
Media = = 2% Nov-17
Oil & Gas - - 5% Nov-17
Personal & Household Goods + + 9% Nov-17
Real Estate = = 2% Nov-17
Retail - - 3% Nov-17
Technology + + 4% Nov-17
Telecommunications = upgrade - 4% Jan-18
Travel & Leisure + + 2% Nov-17
Utilities = = 4% Nov-17
Legend: + (Overw eight); =/+ (Slightly Overw eight); = (Market Weight); =/- (Slightly Underw eight); - (Underw eight);
Note: The tactical sector view is the shorter term trading view of the ESN strategy team and it can vary from the longer term
fundamental view of the relevant ESN sector analyst team
ESN Tactical Sector Views
Leonardo
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 7 of 52
Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation
The facts: Indian “Economic Times” revealed that, after an eight-year gap, an
Indian top defence ministry delegation is headed to Rome next week to revive ties
following the AgustaWestland helicopter scandal and the controversial case of
Italian marines shooting dead fishermen off the Kerala coast.
The delegation - led by Indian defence secretary Sanjay Mitra - will look at areas for
military cooperation, including the sale or joint development of arms and equipment,
over two days that include meetings with the Italian defence minister, the head of
armaments and three service chiefs. Arms companies have not been included in the
joint defence committee meeting.
It seems that the Indians are interested in naval systems, including a new set of
minesweepers for the Indian Navy.
Our analysis: LDO has virtually blacklisted in India after the AgustaWestland case
erupted in 2010; to our knowledge, the blacklisting prevented LDO from taking
part in tenders worth ~EUR 15bn (naval helicopters, naval cannons, tactical
cargoes, torpedoes…).
India overtook the UK as the fifth-largest defence spender in the world in 2017 at
USD 52.5bn (+2.7% Y/Y, source: International Institute for Strategic Studies). We
argue that any attempt to revive the once fruitful relationship can have positive
impact on LDO.
Conclusion & Action: the piece of news is potentially positive, but short term is
neutral.
Leonardo
Italy | Aerospace & Defense
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Leonardo (Buy) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Gabriele Gambarova
+39 02 43 444 289
Buy
9.43
closing price as of 14/05/2018
12.25
29.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg LDOF.MI/LDO IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,452
Current N° of shares (m) 578
Free float 64%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 3,352
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 44,960.16
Price high/low 12 months 8.41 / 16.04
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.49/7.13/-39.90
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 11,527 11,665 12,221
EBITDA (m) 1,560 1,380 1,650
EBITDA margin 13.5% 11.8% 13.5%
EBIT (m) 833 708 979
EBIT margin 7.2% 6.1% 8.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 433 576 653
ROCE 6.4% 6.4% 6.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 2,579 2,477 2,352
Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.5 0.5
Debt/EBITDA 1.7 1.8 1.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.6 4.3 5.4
EV/Sales 0.6 0.5 0.5
EV/EBITDA 4.2 4.4 3.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.9 3.6 3.4
EV/EBIT 7.8 8.7 6.1
P/E (adj.) 13.3 9.5 8.3
P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1
OpFCF yield 9.5% 1.1% 3.8%
Dividend yield 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.75 1.00 1.13
BVPS 7.73 8.08 8.78
DPS 0.14 0.14 0.14
Shareholders
Italian Government 32%; Norges Bank 2%; Libyan Investment
Authority 2%;
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
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LEONARDO Stoxx Aerospace & Defense (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Landi Renzo
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 8 of 52
Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed
The facts: yesterday, LR released Q1 2018 results which were not far from our
estimates; LR confirmed its FY18 outlook with revenues of EUR 165/170m and
EBITDA of EUR 25m.
Our analysis: here follow the Q1 2018 P&L results and our estimates.
Q1 revenues were 2.3% down in Italy, 13% down in the Rest of Europe, 10% up in
the Americas and 66% up in Asia/Rest of the world; Q1 results were almost in line
with our estimates until the Adjusted EBITDA line.
The net financial position (EUR -49m as at the end of 2017) came in at EUR 54m,
worse than we had expected, but only because the company spent ~EUR 3m for
the lay-offs in the quarter.
The management stated that the effort to restructure the automotive system
production footprint will come to an end in Q2 (the EUR 1.5m of restructuring
charges across 2018 were confirmed); Q2, started well, should see a further top line
acceleration and margin improvement. It seems that the commercial activity is doing
pretty well with possible deal announcements in Q2.
Conclusion & Action: Q1 results were in line and we don’t need to adjust our
current estimates.
We believe that the core business of automotive systems offers interesting upside,
but at the same time believe that mounting tensions with Iran and a possible new
round of sanctions against Russia can represent threats for LR and the reaching of
its FY18 guidance. We keep our cautious stance unchanged.
Landi Renzo
Italy | Automobiles & Parts
AUTOMOBILES & PARTS Landi Renzo (Neutral) Italy and India try to revive their military co-operation
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Gabriele Gambarova
+39 02 43 444 289
Neutral
1.58
closing price as of 14/05/2018
1.60
1.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg LR.MI/LR IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 178
Current N° of shares (m) 113
Free float 33%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,119
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 295.65
Price high/low 12 months 0.47 / 1.92
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 5.60/22.41/221.10
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 206 171 177
EBITDA (m) 5 23 27
EBITDA margin 2.3% 13.1% 15.0%
EBIT (m) (11) 10 17
EBIT margin nm 5.8% 9.7%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 4 6 14
ROCE -2.6% 7.7% 11.1%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 49 54 49
Net Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 0.6
Debt/EBITDA 10.4 2.4 1.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 0.8 5.6 10.2
EV/Sales 0.9 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 39.9 8.6 7.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.8 8.0 7.0
EV/EBIT nm 19.4 10.9
P/E (adj.) 42.7 28.9 13.1
P/BV 3.1 2.5 2.1
OpFCF yield 19.1% -1.7% 5.1%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.04 0.05 0.12
BVPS 0.51 0.64 0.76
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
Trust Landi 59%; Aerius IH 5%; Impax AM 3%;
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
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LANDI RENZO Stoxx Automobiles & Parts (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Banca MPS
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 9 of 52
Juliet disposal completed
The facts: Cerved and Quaestio announced overnight they have completed the
acquisition of BMPS' NPL recovery platform (Juliet).
Our analysis: The Juliet platform will provide special servicing activities on NPL
portfolios, and will service at least 80% of the new NPL inflows that will be
generated by BMPS over the next 10Y (with an initial value of approx. EUR 4.5bn)
in addition to other NPL arising from the securitization of BPMS assets as well as
other securitization transactions promoted by Quaestio (approx. EUR 17.6bn).
The total consideration to acquire the platform is equal to EUR 52.6m as expected.
In addition, a potential total earn-out of up to EUR 33.8m, payable in two tranches,
will be subject to the achievement of certain economic results, following the
approval of Juliet financial statements as of 31 Dec 2020 and 31 Dec 2025.
The deal follows the completion by BMPS on 10th May of the securitization
transaction for the sale of a bad loan portfolio of c. EUR 24.1bn.
As a reminder, the securitization vehicle issued the following notes:
Senior notes for EUR 2,918m, which will be assisted by State guarantee (GACS),
will be initially retained by BMPS, which may subsequently consider their partial
placement on the market. The senior notes’ tranching exceeds Restructuring
Plan expectations, which contemplated a class of Non-Investment Grade notes
for approximately EUR 500m that will therefore not be issued.
Mezzanine notes for EUR 847.6m, unrated, which were sold on 22 Dec 2017 to the
Italian Recovery Fund managed by Quaestio.
Junior notes for EUR 565m, unrated, which will be sold to the Italian Recovery Fund
managed by Quaestio after having obtained GACS on the senior notes.
The two transactions highlight the steady achievement of goals set by the BMPS
Restructuring Plan which was announced on 5 July 2017.
Following the much better than expected Q1 18 results and positive guidance from
mgmt., we revise our expectations on Banca MPS’ fundamentals. We increase our
Adj. EPS estimates from EUR 0.25 to 0.32 in FY18, from EUR 0.35 to 0.38 in FY19
and from EUR 0.38 to 0.40 in FY20, mainly on the back of lower operating costs and
lower loan impairments (61bps cost of risk mgmt. guidance).
Please note our EUR 430m FY19 net profit estimate is still 25% lower than EUR
570m restructuring plan target.
Conclusion & Action: On the back of our higher EPS estimates, we increase our
target price from EUR 3.4 to 3.8 and reiterate Buy on the stock, still trading at one-
third of BV.
Banca MPS
Italy | Banks
BANKS Banca MPS (Buy) Q1 results almost in line – FY18 guidance confirmed
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Luigi Tramontana
+39 02 4344 4239
Buy
3.28
closing price as of 14/05/2018
3.80
3.40
15.9%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg BMPS.MI/BMPS IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,740
Current N° of shares (m) 1,140
Free float 25%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,462
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 44,467.63
Price high/low 12 months 2.48 / 15.08
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 22.39/-7.71/-78.25
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Total Revenue (m) 4,026 3,541 3,564
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 1,087 914 979
Operating profit (OP) -4,237 335 259
Earnings Before Tax (m) -4,186 185 259
Net Profit (adj.) (m) -263 510 429
Shareholders Equity (m) 10,429 10,789 11,218
Tangible BV (m) 10,421 10,781 11,210
RWA (m) 60,600 68,418 68,923
ROTE -3.2% 4.8% 3.9%
Total Capital Ratio (B3) 14.9% 15.9% 15.3%
Cost/Income 63.2% 68.6% 65.5%
NPL ratio (gross) 28.2% 9.0% 10.0%
P/PPP 4.1 4.1 3.8
P/E (adj.) nm 7.3 8.7
P/BV 0.4 0.3 0.3
P/TBV 0.4 0.3 0.3
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PPPPS 0.95 0.80 0.86
EPS (adj.) -0.23 0.45 0.38
BVPS 9.14 9.45 9.83
TBVPS 9.14 9.45 9.83
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
Italian Government 68%; Generali 4%;
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
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BANCA MPS Stoxx Banks (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Commerzbank
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 10 of 52
Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast
The facts: Commerzbank has just reported a slightly better than expected pretax
profit which was down by 13% yoy to EUR 289m (equinet: EUR 270m). Revenues
were higher than expected (delta of EUR 42m) which was however more than offset
by higher than expected costs (delta of EUR 66m), mainly due to high investments.
Risk provisions declined by 61% yoy to EUR 77m and were thus well below our
forecast of EUR 120m. Tax rate of 2% was very low (equinet: 28%) and thus net
profit was with EUR 250m (+6% yoy) well above our forecast of EUR 169m. CT1
ratio was down by 80 bps qoq to 13.3% which resulted mainly from the first-time
implementation of IFRS 9. Importantly CBK sticks to its cost target for the full-year of
around EUR 7bn and has confirmed its other targets for 2018 as well.
Our analysis:
Conclusion & Action: All in all Q1 results are in line with expectations if adjusting
for the very low tax rate which should not be sustainable.
Commerzbank
Germany | Banks
BANKS Commerzbank (Neutral) Juliet disposal completed
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Philipp Häßler, CFA
+49 69 58997 414
Neutral
10.60
closing price as of 14/05/2018
13.00
22.7%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg CBKG.DE/CBK GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 13,271
Current N° of shares (m) 1,252
Free float 84%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 9,662
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 101,062.49
Price high/low 12 months 9.26 / 13.71
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.43/-16.38/12.02
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Total Revenue (m) 8,990 8,712 9,056
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 1,911 1,750 2,315
Operating profit (OP) 1,130 1,200 1,765
Earnings Before Tax (m) 495 1,200 1,765
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 156 801 1,215
Shareholders Equity (m) 28,877 29,678 30,643
Tangible BV (m) 27,370 28,171 29,136
RWA (m) 171,000 174,420 177,908
ROTE 0.6% 2.9% 4.2%
Total Capital Ratio (B3) 17.5% 16.7% 16.8%
Cost/Income 78.7% 79.9% 74.4%
NPL ratio (gross) 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%
P/PPP 8.2 7.6 5.7
P/E (adj.) nm 16.6 10.9
P/BV 0.5 0.4 0.4
P/TBV 0.6 0.5 0.5
Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.9% 2.8%
PPPPS 1.53 1.40 1.85
EPS (adj.) 0.12 0.64 0.97
BVPS 23.06 23.70 24.47
TBVPS 21.85 22.49 23.26
DPS 0.00 0.20 0.30
Shareholders
German government 16%;
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18
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COMMERZBANK Stoxx Banks (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Commerzbank - Q1 2018
EUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2018e Q1 2017 yoy Consensus delta
Revenues 2,302 2,260 2,392 -4% 2,272 1%
of which NII* 1,390 1,400 1,464 -5% 1,369 2%
Expenses 1,936 1,870 1,865 4% 1,889 2%
CIR 84.1% 82.7% 78.0% 613 BP 83.1% 1%
Risk provis. 77 120 195 -61% 107 -28%
EBT 289 270 332 -13% 274 5%
Net income 250 169 235 6% 177 41%
*: incl. fair value result Sources: Commerzbank, equinet Research
Crédit Agricole SA
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 11 of 52
Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers
The facts: Q1-2018 results below expectations due to the wholesale activities.
Our analysis: Revenues came in at EUR4,909m (consensus at EUR5,013m) up
4.4% (+2.5% on an underlying basis) and operating charges were EUR3,401m vs
EUR3,348m (+2.5%), i.e., GOP up 2.5% at EUR1,508m (vs EUR1,665m). The cost
of risk was down 12.6% at EUR314m (vs EUR350m), i.e. 29bp (MTP guidance at
50bp). Net attributable income was EUR856m (vs EUR901m) but EUR788m on an
underlying basis (negative goodwill income of EUR86m). LCL posted revenues
down 5.0% (-0.6% excluding renegotiation fees and early repayments) at EUR858m
(vs EUR855m) with charges under control (-2.4%) excluding the SRF. Revenues for
the retail bank in Italy rose a strong 17.6% due to the integration of three savings
banks (l-f-l trend not specified). The latter saw their C/I fall from 118% in Q4-2017 to
95.5%. Their contribution remains a negative EUR4m. Specialised financing
revenues were up 0.4%. NBI for the insurance division was down 0.4% at
EUR627m (vs EUR623m), and that for Amundi rose 1.6% l-f-l (see our comment on
Amundi). Revenues for the CIB posted a sharp decline in of 11.5% to EUR1,322m
(vs EUR1,457m) with revenues for the market activities down 20% and a 2.5%
decline for structured finance. The CT1 was down 30bp at 11.4% (IFRS 9: -24bp).
Conclusion & Action: As was the case for BNPP and SG, CASA was not spared a
soft patch for the CIB (even if the model is less exposed) and a negative base effect
for the retail bank in France. However, the charges and cost of risk remain under
control despite a EUR80m increase in the SRF.
Crédit Agricole SA
France | Banks
BANKS Crédit Agricole SA (Accumulate) Q1 pretax profit slightly above our forecast
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Pierre Chedeville
+33 1 53 48 80 97
Accumulate
13.41
closing price as of 14/05/2018
17.00
26.8%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg CAGR.PA/ACA FP
Market capitalisation (EURm) 38,166
Current N° of shares (m) 2,846
Free float 40%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 5,655
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 84,920.03
Price high/low 12 months 13.14 / 15.68
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.19/-1.18/-6.13
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Total Revenue (m) 18,631 19,660 20,333
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 6,432 7,049 7,646
Operating profit (OP) 5,012 5,731 6,307
Earnings Before Tax (m) 5,955 6,023 6,632
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 3,650 3,985 4,279
Shareholders Equity (m) 58,056 59,314 60,651
Tangible BV (m) 42,635 43,738 44,920
RWA (m) 296,400 299,660 302,657
ROTE 6.7% 7.2% 7.6%
Total Capital Ratio (B3) 17.4% 18.0% 18.5%
Cost/Income 65.5% 64.1% 62.4%
NPL ratio (gross) 4.0% 3.7% 3.5%
P/PPP 6.1 5.4 5.0
P/E (adj.) 11.3 10.3 10.3
P/BV 0.7 0.6 0.6
P/TBV 0.9 0.9 0.8
Dividend Yield 4.7% 4.5% 4.7%
PPPPS 2.26 2.48 2.69
EPS (adj.) 1.22 1.30 1.30
BVPS 20.41 20.86 21.33
TBVPS 14.99 15.38 15.80
DPS 0.63 0.60 0.63
Shareholders
Employees 5%; SAS Rue La Boetie 54%;
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
CREDIT AGRICOLE SA Stoxx Banks (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Altri
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 12 of 52
1Q18 results and valuation update
The facts: Altri released its 1Q18 results on Friday after the market close in Lisbon.
The company booked revenues of EUR 173.4m, EBITDA of EUR 63.3m and net
income of EUR 32.6m. EBITDA margin was the highest on record (at least since
2008), reflecting an upbeat pulp market that seems to have gain unexpected
traction in 2018. This report provides details over the company’s first quarter results
and an update in valuation.
Our analysis: Pulp production reached 257.1 thousand tons o.w. 27.3 thousand of
dissolving, with the lower production level (-2.7% yoy) due to restrictions applied to
Celtejo mill by environmental authorities. Pulp sales stood at 247.5 thousand tons in
the quarter o.w. 24.5 thousand of dissolving pulp. The company cited the need to
normalize inventories and adverse weather conditions that affected operations in
sea ports to justify the 9.8% yoy decline in sales.
Turnover in the quarter benefited from higher pulp prices, both yoy and qoq, with
euro denominated prices also at highs. Operating costs were down qoq but more
expressively yoy, with financial results reaching EUR -1.9m and a net debt at the
end of the quarter of EUR 365.2m. Capex in the quarter was of EUR 23.4m, with the
change in net debt vs. the end of 2017 of EUR 24m.
In the press release following the results announcement, the company expects that
the current price environment should remain in place in the second quarter of the
year, with also an increase in sales volumes. Pulp prices have been increasing
almost every month since the start of 2017, currently standing above USD 1,000 per
ton. According to PPPC, global demand for hardwood pulp was up 5% in 2017 (+1.6
million tons) to 33.9 million tons. Demand from Europe was flat in 2017, with China
experiencing a rise of 12.8%. In what concerns eucalyptus pulp, global demand was
up 3.6% (+7.4% in China).
Also according to PPPC, hardwood demand was up 4.2% yoy in the first quarter of
2018, amounting to an extra 340 thousand tons. Chinese consumption was up c.
3% yoy and 6% in Europe. The annualized growth expected for 2018, based on the
Q1 figure, is of 1.360 million tons, which is lower than the 2017 number but slightly
above the normalized 1 million tons long-term average.
Our current valuation of Altri yields capacity and financial metrics that compare well
with the latest industry transactions. We reach an EV/EBITDA 2018e of 6.8x and
also estimate higher FCF to ton vs. Fibria in the next three years. Again, the
valuation is highly sensitive to changes in pulp prices and EURUSD, demanding a
continuous monitoring of conditions going forward.
Conclusion & Action: We’ve increased our pulp price forecasts for the next years,
with our forward price curve better matching market conditions in the shorter
maturities. We continue to view pulp prices well supported in 2019-2020 as no new
large capacity additions are planned. With no major expansions or greenfield
projects and inefficient/polluting capacity leaving the market (namely in China),
debottlenecking projects should not be able to absorb a normalized level of demand
growth (of c. 1 million tons per year in hardwood pulp). We’ve reached a fair value of
EUR 7.60 per share and a Buy recommendation.
Altri
Portugal | Basic Resources
BASIC RESOURCES Altri (Buy) Soft patch for the CIB, as for peers
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Carlos Jesus
+351 21 389 6812
Artur Amaro
+351 213 89 6822
Buy
6.39
closing price as of 14/05/2018
7.60
5.30
18.9%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
from Accumulate
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ALSS.LS/ALTR PL
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,311
Current N° of shares (m) 205
Free float 34%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 298
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 3,089.20
Price high/low 12 months 3.63 / 6.39
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 15.55/44.90/52.32
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 666 734 775
EBITDA (m) 191 267 306
EBITDA margin 28.7% 36.4% 39.5%
EBIT (m) 137 210 251
EBIT margin 20.6% 28.6% 32.3%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 96 142 174
ROCE 12.2% -6.7% -39.1%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 389 321 192
Net Debt/Equity 1.0 0.7 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.2 0.6
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 10.1 20.9 23.6
EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 1.9
EV/EBITDA 7.6 6.1 4.9
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.6 6.1 4.9
EV/EBIT 10.6 7.8 6.0
P/E (adj.) 11.0 9.2 7.5
P/BV 2.7 2.8 2.2
OpFCF yield 7.6% 10.9% 14.5%
Dividend yield 3.9% 4.7% 4.7%
EPS (adj.) 0.47 0.69 0.85
BVPS 1.92 2.32 2.86
DPS 0.25 0.30 0.30
Shareholders
Management 61%; Bestinver 5%;
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
ALTRI Stoxx Basic Resources (Rebased)
Source: Factset
SURTECO
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 13 of 52
Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed
Overall, Surteco reported results as we have had expected. Q1 sales
increased 10% yoy to EUR 187m in line with our estimates. Main growth driver
was the first-time consolidation of Probos in the plastics division. On the
other side, the relatively weaker USD and a change in product mix in the paper
division weighed negatively on quarterly sales. Q1 EBIT increased 25% to
EUR 13.4m (equinet: EUR 13.3m) and was thus also in line with our estimates.
Surteco’s management confirmed the outlook for 2018. We expect a positive
start for the shares today.
As in the previous quarters, the acquired Probos group proved to be a solid
contributor to sales and earnings. Plastics division’s sales increased 25%,
despite FX headwinds, mainly from the USD. We estimate that the majority from
the increase stems from Probos. Similarly, Plastics division’s EBIT increased by
51% to EUR 8.2m (equinet: EUR 7.7m), which is equivalent to an EBIT margin
of 9%. Therefore, Surteco was able to improve its plastics division margins
further (Q4 2017: 6.9% and Q3 2017: 8.3%), underlining the enhancing effects
from Probos.
The paper division exhibited sales in line with our expectations, but earnings
that were slightly below our estimates. The reasons for the decline in the
division’s earnings were raw material headwinds and changes in the product
mix. Here, the development of titanium dioxide prices, which account for c. 40%
of the raw décor paper prices, will be of interest going forward.
Due to a significant increase in working capital (particularly receivables), Q1
operating cash flow was negative. However, as this is usually a seasonal
pattern, we would expect a normalisation over the course of the year.
Surteco’s management confirmed its 2018 guidance with sales ranging from
EUR 725m to EUR 750m and EBIT between EUR 49m and 53m. Assuming no
significant deterioration in the raw material market, this looks achievable in our
view.
SURTECO
Germany | Basic Resources
BASIC RESOURCES SURTECO (Buy) 1Q18 results and valuation update
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA
+ 49 69 58997 419
Dustin Mildner
+49 69 58997-438
Buy
26.55
closing price as of 14/05/2018
30.50
14.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg SURG.DE/SUR GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 412
Current N° of shares (m) 16
Free float 40%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 9
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 114.19
Price high/low 12 months 23.00 / 28.55
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.27/0.95/15.46
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 690 736 754
EBITDA (m) 83 97 98
EBITDA margin 12.0% 13.2% 13.0%
EBIT (m) 41 47 49
EBIT margin 5.9% 6.4% 6.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 28 32 34
ROCE 5.0% 5.5% 5.7%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 190 169 147
Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.4
Debt/EBITDA 2.3 1.7 1.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 10.8 11.3 12.8
EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.8
EV/EBITDA 7.5 6.1 5.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.7 6.4 6.1
EV/EBIT 15.3 12.7 11.7
P/E (adj.) 15.1 13.0 12.2
P/BV 1.2 1.1 1.1
OpFCF yield 9.6% 8.1% 9.2%
Dividend yield 3.0% 3.8% 4.1%
EPS (adj.) 1.78 2.05 2.18
BVPS 22.33 23.58 24.77
DPS 0.80 1.00 1.10
Shareholders
Pool and Family Shareholders 55%; Lazard Freres Gestion
SAS 5%;
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18
vvdsvdvsdy
SURTECO CDAX (Rebased)
Source: Factset
SURTECO - Review Q1 2018
Revenues 186.7 169.7 10.0% 187.4 -0.4% -3.2% from currencies
of which: SBU Paper 95.8 97.2 -1.4% 96.0 -0.3%
of which: SBU Plastics 90.9 72.8 24.9% 91.5 -0.7% first-time consolidation of Probos
of which: Consolidation 0.0 -0.2 nm -0.2 nm
EBIT 13.4 10.7 24.8% 13.3 0.5%
EBIT Margin 7.2% 6.3% 85 BP 7.1% 6 BP
of which: SBU Paper 7.1 7.6 -6.1% 7.3 -2.7% increase in raw material prices / product mix
of which: SBU Plastics 8.2 5.4 50.9% 7.7 7.2%
of which: Consolidation -1.9 -2.3 nm -1.6 nm
Source: SURTECO, equinet Research
CommentEUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2017 % YoYDelta vs
actualequinet
Anima
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 14 of 52
Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC
The facts: Anima published its Q1-18 results yesterday during trading hours, followed by a
conference call.
Anima: Q1-18 results
Q1-18 Y/Y A/E Q1 18e
Q1-18 Cons
Q1-17
Net commissions 71 39% -2% 72 n.a. 51
Performance fees 15 615% 51% 10 n.a. 2
Other income 7 0% 9% 6 n.a. 7
Total revenues 92 55% 5% 88 86 60
Operating expense -22 35% 4% -21 n.a. -16
Other income/costs -7 -13% -11% -8 n.a. -8
EBT 63 80% 8% 59 54 35
Net profit 45 74% 9% 41 37 26
Adj. Net profit 48 51% 6% 45 n.a. 32
Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates
Our analysis: we underline that Q1-18 represents the first period of consolidation of Aletti
SGR’s results in Anima’s P&L. Anima recorded net inflows for c. EUR 600m in Q1-18; total
AuM achieved EUR 93.8bn, +27% Y/Y not taking into account Aletti’s AuM at the end of Q1-17.
Net commissions closed at c. EUR 71m, +39% Y/Y, with net commission margin on avg.
assets improving at c. 7.5bps vs 7bps in Q1-17 (6.3bp in Q4-17), a little bit lower than 7.7bps
we estimated. We understand that the improvement could come from Aletti’s assets, which
have a better profitability compared to Anima stand alone. For the same reason, performance
fees achieved EUR 15m during the quarter much higher than EUR 2m recorded in Q1-17 and
compared to EUR 10m implied in our numbers. The operating costs were under control (cost
income ratio, ex performance fees, closed at 28.3%), higher than we assumed, due to the
performance fees, almost in line with Q1-17 but better than 28.8% in Q4-17. The increase in
revenues and Anima’s operating leverage lead the net profit to EUR 45m, +74% Y/Y, +9% vs
our assumptions and compared to EUR 37m in consensus’ numbers collected by the company.
ANM’s net financial position closed at around EUR -290m vs EUR -276m at the end of 2017.
Conference call main takeaways – Performance fees (EUR 15m in Q1-18) are sustainable
depending on market condition; despite the good Q1-18 results, more synergies could be
extracted on the cost side in the next quarters of the year; the new LTIP KPIs (growth vs 3x
2017A EPS equal to 23% in 2018-2020E, to 30.5% in 2019 – 2021E and to 35.5% in 2020-
2022E) are ambitious but achievable considering Anima’s positioning in retail segment, the less
competitive pressures on Institutional segment market in which the company increased its
weight and the fast growing scale also through M&A; according to the company, Ebitda, net of
performance fees, considering BBPM and Poste deals and no growth ought to achieve c. EUR
200m in 2018 vs EUR 55m in Q1-18, in line with our assumptions; despite the dilution expected
in the top line, the operating leverage is likely to ensure sustainable profitability going forward;
in the next months, net inflows could be pushed by BBPM bonds expiring (EUR 4bn), which
could be transformed in AM products; Anima is not worried about MIFID II considering that its
gross pricing (1.32%) is below the average for retail customers in Italy.
Conclusion & Action: CC mood and results could have a positive impact on the stock. We
reiterate our investment case: with the acquisition of Aletti SGR and the signature of the
partnerships with Poste and BBPM, Anima will improve its competitive position, in terms of
scale, distribution channels, business mix and skills. We stick to Accumulate.
Anima
Italy | Financial Services Banks
FINANCIAL SERVICES BANKS Anima (Accumulate) Good start into 2018, guidance confirmed
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Enrico Esposti, CIIA
+39 02 4344 4022
Accumulate
6.14
closing price as of 14/05/2018
7.00
14.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ANIM.MI/ANIM IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,892
Current N° of shares (m) 308
Free float 75%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,144
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 7,419.33
Price high/low 12 months 4.96 / 6.46
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.16/9.16/15.13
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Total Revenue (m) 257 345 355
Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 174 243 251
Operating profit (OP) 174 243 251
Earnings Before Tax (m) 160 229 241
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 134 178 182
Shareholders Equity (m) 870 972 1,056
Tangible BV (m) 0 0 0
RWA (m) 0 0 0
ROTE 15.7% 19.3% 17.9%
Total Capital Ratio (B3) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cost/Income 32.5% 29.6% 29.2%
P/PPP 9.5 7.8 9.3
P/E (adj.) 12.3 10.7 12.8
P/BV 1.9 1.9 2.2
P/TBV nm nm nm
Dividend Yield 3.1% 3.6% 4.0%
PPPPS 0.56 0.79 0.66
EPS (adj.) 0.43 0.58 0.48
BVPS 2.82 3.15 2.78
TBVPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
DPS 0.19 0.22 0.24
Shareholders
BPM 15%; Poste Italiane 10%;
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
ANIMA FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
TIP Tamburi Investment Partners
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 15 of 52
TIP Q1 18 results
The facts: TIP published its Q1 18 results yesterday after-market.
Our analysis: Net income was EUR 27.3m vs. EUR 18.5m in Q1 17. During the
quarter TIP has slightly decreased its investment in Moncler and FCA and increased
its investment in Prysmian.
Conclusion & Action: The Italian market is still buoyant and TIP investments
among the top performers (see Moncler, Ferrari.. and non-luxury stocks in TIP
portfolio).
TIP Tamburi Investment Partners
Italy | Financial Services Holdings
FINANCIAL SERVICES HOLDINGS TIP Tamburi Investment Partners (Buy) Q1-18 better than expected; positive message from CC
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Giada Cabrino, CIIA
+39 02 4344 4092
Buy
6.22
closing price as of 14/05/2018
5.90
-5.1%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg TIP.MI/TIP IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 919
Current N° of shares (m) 148
Free float 69%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 270
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 957.23
Price high/low 12 months 4.99 / 6.37
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 1.30/5.42/19.04
Total Net Asset Value 0.0 0%
NAVPS (EUR) nm nm
Share price*: EUR 6.22 6.22
Shareholders
Francesco Angelini 11%; Giovanni Tamburi 7%;
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
TIP TAMBURI INVESTMENT PARTNERS FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A.
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 16 of 52
Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed
The facts: This morning CORESTATE published its Q1 2018 results which were
better than expected.
Our analysis: Due to the recent acquisitions Aggregate Revenues improved from
EUR 17.0m to EUR 61.9m in Q1 2018 which was broadly in-line with our forecast of
EUR 60.9m (consensus: EUR 60.9m). Contrary to the usual seasonality of the real
estate sector CORESTATE showed a good first quarter which was also supported
by a stable transaction pipeline.
EBITDA amounted to EUR 37.4m which was below our forecast of EUR 38.8m.
Note that G&A included EUR 1.4m cost of management board realignment. Net
Profit reached EUR 28.5m and was thus better than expected (equinet: EUR 25.8m)
and included a positive accounting effect on financial result of c. EUR 3m mainly
from derivatives.
Taking into account some adjustments for one-off items (EUR 1.4m management
realignment costs) Adjusted EBITDA was fully in-line with our estimate of EUR
38.8m and better than consensus (EUR 37.1m). Adjusted Net Profit improved to
EUR 34.7m, above our estimate of EUR 30.8m and above consensus (EUR 27.4m).
Note that one-off items included the depreciation for management contracts,
management realignment and DTA & non-controlling interests.
Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed: CORESTATE sticks to its forecast for FY 2018
and still expects Aggregate Revenues of between EUR 230m and 240m (equinet:
EUR 243.5m), Adjusted EBITDA is expected between EUR 155m and 165m
(equinet: EUR 155.1m) and Adjusted Net Profit should be in the range of EUR 120m
and 130m (equinet: EUR 123.1m).
Conclusion & Action: Aggregate Revenues increased to EUR 61.9m (equinet:
EUR 60.9m/ consensus: EUR 60.9m) and Adjusted Net Profit reached EUR 34.7m,
above our forecast of EUR 30.8m and above consensus (EUR 27.4m). As of March
2018 AuM amounted to c. EUR 22bn (vs Dec. 2017: EUR 22bn). Main drivers for
the strong first quarter were revenue and cost synergies as a result of the
acquisitions of Hannover Leasing, Helvetic Financial Services and ATOS in 2017.
CORESTATE sticks to its forecast for FY 2018 which we regard as achievable.
Overall, we see the company well positioned to further grow organically and via
acquisitions and attract additional clients with its diversified product range among
various asset classes. Thus, we stick to our Buy recommendation with a TP of EUR
72.00.
CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A.
Germany | Financial Services Industrials
FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRIALS CORESTATE Capital Holding S.A. (Buy) TIP Q1 18 results
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Katharina Mayer
+49 69 58997-432
Philipp Häßler, CFA
+49 69 58997 414
Buy
46.75
closing price as of 14/05/2018
72.00
54.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg CCAP.DE/CCAP GR
Market capitalisation (EURm) 996
Current N° of shares (m) 21
Free float 59%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 24
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 628.38
Price high/low 12 months 33.80 / 56.50
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.06/-6.50/39.89
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 195 243 262
EBITDA (m) 105 155 170
EBITDA margin 53.7% 63.7% 65.1%
EBIT (m) 84 134 149
EBIT margin 43.0% 54.9% 57.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 93 123 139
ROCE 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 261 190 117
Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.3 0.2
Debt/EBITDA 2.5 1.2 0.7
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.0 8.9 11.0
EV/Sales 6.2 4.1 3.5
EV/EBITDA 11.6 6.4 5.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 11.8 6.4 5.3
EV/EBIT 14.5 7.4 6.1
P/E (adj.) 9.8 8.1 7.2
P/BV 1.7 1.9 1.7
OpFCF yield -11.4% 11.4% 13.0%
Dividend yield 4.3% 5.6% 6.3%
EPS (adj.) 5.43 5.78 6.51
BVPS 32.05 24.89 27.44
DPS 2.00 2.60 2.93
Shareholders
Flygon Holding LLC (Ralph Winter) 18%; Management 5%;
Norbert Ketterer 10%; Sandra Ketterer 9%;
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18
vvdsvdvsdy
CORESTATE CAPITAL HOLDING S.A. CDAX (Rebased)
Source: Factset
CORESTATE - Review Q1 2018
EUR m Q1 2018 Q1 2017 % yoy equinet delta Cons. delta
Aggregate Revenues 61.9 17.0 265% 60.9 2% 60.9 2%
EBITDA 37.4 5.9 537% 38.8 -4% n.a. n.a.
Adjusted EBITDA 38.8 n.a. n.a. 38.8 0% 37.1 5%
Net Profit* 28.5 5.6 411% 25.8 10% n.a. n.a.
Adjusted Net Profit 34.7 n.a. n.a. 30.8 13% 27.4 27%
Source: CORESTATE, equinet Research *before minority interests Source: CORESTATE, Vara Consensus, equinet Research
Marr
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 17 of 52
Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability
The facts: Marr published its Q1 18 results yesterday during trading time.
Q1 17a Q1 18a % Chg
Sales 328.3 336.5 2.5%
EBITDA 15.4 16.4 6.5%
% margin 4.7% 4.9%
Our analysis:
Marr reported Q1 18 revenues at EUR 336.5m, up by 2.5% Y/Y (in line with
Akros est. EUR 335.5M +2.2%): in particular, Street market segment sales
increased by 6.5% Y/Y, which benefited from Easter sales; the sales of National
Account category increased by 9.0% Y/Y driven by the sub-segment of Chains &
Groups of hotels and restaurants and the sales to clients in the Wholesale category
decreased by 14.2% due to scarcity of fished frozen seafood (i.e. octopus fishing
campaign).
Q1 18 EBITDA reached EUR 16.4m, up by 6.5% (higher than Akros es. EUR
15.8m +2.6%): the growth in profitability was due to a slightly better gross margin
and to a control of all operating costs.
Improvement of Cash conversion cycle from 66 to 59 days was driven by that of
the days of Receivable.
Outlook on 2018 confirmed: the visibility on the rest of the year remains positive:
1) the sales trend in April brings sales to Street Market and National Account clients
at the end of the first four months in line with the growth objectives for the year; 2)
according to views of tourist and foodservice operators the reference market is
expected to confirm a positive trend in the coming Summer season. Based on the
results and on these indications, the management feels confident to achieve the
targets announced at the beginning of the year: 1) sales increase higher than the
reference market growth, still driven by the organic growth of the street Market
segment around 3.5% (vs expected market growth around 1.5%); 2) stable
operating margins compared to the previous year; 3) keeping the absorption of the
trade net working capital under control
Our estimates: based on Q1 18 results, we confirm our FY 18 estimates of sales
and profitability, which are in line with the foregoing indications. Based on the further
improvement in the trade NWC and based on Q1 18 Net Debt of EUR 186.7m, we
set FY 18 Net Debt at EUR 159m.
Conclusion & Action: based on our revised estimates and on the roll-over of our
DCF model (WACC 6.56% and perpetual growth 2.0%), we move our target price
from EUR 23.60 to EUR 25.80 per share. Neutral recommendation confirmed.
Marr
Italy | Food & Drug Retailers
FOOD & DRUG RETAILERS Marr (Neutral) Good start into 2018 – Guidance for FY 2018 confirmed
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Paola Saglietti
+39 02 4344 4287
Neutral
25.36
closing price as of 14/05/2018
25.80
23.60
1.7%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg MARR.MI/MARR IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,676
Current N° of shares (m) 66
Free float 49%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 75
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 3,055.80
Price high/low 12 months 20.47 / 25.40
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.88/20.30/12.51
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 1,625 1,682 1,745
EBITDA (m) 116 119 125
EBITDA margin 7.1% 7.1% 7.2%
EBIT (m) 97 101 108
EBIT margin 6.0% 6.0% 6.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 65 69 74
ROCE 15.6% 15.5% 17.0%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 158 159 126
Net Debt/Equity 0.5 0.5 0.4
Debt/EBITDA 1.4 1.3 1.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 22.9 28.7 29.7
EV/Sales 1.0 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA 13.4 15.2 14.2
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.4 15.2 14.2
EV/EBIT 16.0 17.9 16.4
P/E (adj.) 28.3 31.8 29.6
P/BV 4.6 5.1 4.8
OpFCF yield 5.0% 2.8% 4.9%
Dividend yield 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.76 0.80 0.86
BVPS 4.64 4.94 5.29
DPS 0.74 0.76 0.77
Shareholders
Cremonini S.p.a. 51%;
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
MARR FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Cembre
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 18 of 52
Solid results in Q1'18
The facts: Cembre released its Q1 18 results yesterday.
Our analysis:
Cembre reported solid results in Q1 ’18 with sales and EBITDA growing faster than expected and above our trends for the year of sales and EBITDA growth of +8%/+10% respectively. .
EBITDA grew by 12.6% from EUR 8.91m in Q1’17 to EUR 10.0m of Q1’18. This
performance was due to, the cost of goods sold and personnel costs as a
percentage of sales declining over the corresponding period in 2017, the latter
despite the increase in the average number of employees from 677 in the Q1-17 to
726 in the Q1-18.
EBIT for the Q1’18 amounted to EUR 8.3m up 13.6% on EUR 7.4m in the Q1-
17. Below EBIT, the company reported almost immaterial currency translation loss
of EUR 98 thousand as compared with a EUR 65 thousand loss recorded in the
Q1’17.
The net profit increased by 22.1 % (from EUR 5.1m in Q1’17 to EUR 6.23m)
thanks to the reduced taxe rate due to the patent box effects
The consolidated net financial position of the Group declined from a surplus
of €26.7 million at March 31, 2017, to a surplus of €18.5 million at March 31, 2018.
Among events subsequent to March 31, 2018 Cembre underlines the German
company Ikuma GmbH & Co and Ikuma Verwaltungs GmbH acquisition that was
made against the payment of a price of EUR 6,3mn in cash representing the
Enterprise Value of the two companies. A further and deferred amount of EUR 2mn
will be paid in four annual tranche contingent on the verification of specific
conditions.
In the last the Shareholders’ Meeting of April 26, 2018 the Board approved the
start of a program for the purchase of own shares, in order to support new
investment opportunities, and announced to close to close 2018 reporting a
considerable growth in turnover and profits on the previous year. We highlight to
investors that as of April 2018 sales growth was up 7.8% or about in line with our full
year forecast for the year of 7.5%.
Conclusion & Action: We are in the process of updating our estimates following
the acquisition of above meanwhile we confirm our Rating.
Cembre
Italy | General Industrials
GENERAL INDUSTRIALS Cembre (Neutral) Q1 18 results: good recovery in profitability
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Bonfà
+39 02 4344 4269
Neutral
27.40
closing price as of 14/05/2018
22.00
-19.7%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg CEMB.MI/CMB IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 466
Current N° of shares (m) 17
Free float 26%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 11
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 360.02
Price high/low 12 months 18.90 / 27.40
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 14.17/26.85/41.60
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 133 143 148
EBITDA (m) 33 37 38
EBITDA margin 25.2% 25.9% 25.9%
EBIT (m) 27 30 31
EBIT margin 20.4% 20.9% 20.9%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 23 22 23
ROCE 15.5% 17.0% 17.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (20) (28) (36)
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Debt/EBITDA -0.6 -0.8 -0.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (655.6) high high
EV/Sales 2.7 3.1 2.9
EV/EBITDA 10.5 12.0 11.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.5 12.0 11.3
EV/EBIT 13.0 14.8 14.0
P/E (adj.) 16.1 20.8 20.0
P/BV 2.6 3.1 2.9
OpFCF yield 2.8% 4.6% 4.6%
Dividend yield 2.6% 2.9% 2.9%
EPS (adj.) 1.34 1.32 1.37
BVPS 8.42 8.93 9.50
DPS 0.70 0.80 0.80
Shareholders
Rosani Family 70%; Lazard 2%; Financier De L'Echiquier
1.48%;
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
CEMBRE FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Yoox Net-A-Porter
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 19 of 52
Q1 18 revenues results
The facts: YNAP released its Q1 18 trading statement yesterday after market
closure (no conf. call).
Our analysis: A brief reading of YNAP trading statement could be helpful to better
understand the luxury online dynamics. Q1 18 revenues were up 7.9% at constant
forex (+0.5% reported). Organic growth was 10.4%. Multibrand in-season grew
14.1%, Multibrand off-season grew 2%, Gross merchandising value of the online
flagship stores was up 21.8%. Italy, NAM and Asia Pacific were the fastest growing
countries.
All KPI’s improved but the AOV (slightly down due to forex).
The lesson we learn is that the online is still growing strongly; in addition positive
surprise was represented by Italy and the US, this quarter.
Conclusion & Action: We remind readers that Richemont launched a takeover bid
on 100% YNAP shares aimed at the delisting. Richemont has reached the 95%,
squeeze out threshold.
Yoox Net-A-Porter
Italy | General Retailers
GENERAL RETAILERS Yoox Net-A-Porter (Neutral) Solid results in Q1'18
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Giada Cabrino, CIIA
+39 02 4344 4092
Neutral
37.90
closing price as of 14/05/2018
38.00
0.3%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg YNAP.MI/YNAP IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 5,067
Current N° of shares (m) 134
Free float 59%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 822
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 44,032.57
Price high/low 12 months 23.24 / 37.92
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.29/0.24/53.69
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 1,871 2,091 2,427
EBITDA (m) 143 162 210
EBITDA margin 7.7% 7.7% 8.6%
EBIT (m) 52 43 71
EBIT margin 2.8% 2.1% 2.9%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 70 59 85
ROCE 2.4% 1.9% 2.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (106) (37) (42)
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 0.0 0.0
Debt/EBITDA -0.7 -0.2 -0.2
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 35.3 10.8 52.5
EV/Sales 1.9 1.8 2.1
EV/EBITDA 24.4 23.9 24.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 22.5 22.1 22.8
EV/EBIT 67.1 89.9 71.3
P/E (adj.) nm nm nm
P/BV 1.9 2.0 2.5
OpFCF yield 0.9% -2.0% -0.1%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.52 0.44 0.63
BVPS 14.48 14.63 14.98
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
CFR 25%; Renzo Rosso 6%; Federico Marchetti 6%; Alabbar
enterprises 4%;
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
YOOX NET-A-PORTER FTSE MIB (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Terveystalo
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 20 of 52
TERVEYSTALO
EURm OP Cons. Diff. OP Cons. Diff.
Sales 210.0 212.2 -1% 770 776 -1%
EBITDA - adjusted 30 31 -3% 113 115 -2%
Margin 14.3 % 14.6 %
Total EBIT 20 21 -3% 73 73 0%
Total EBIT margin 9.6 % 9.8 % 9.5 % 9.4 %
PTP 19 20 -5% 69 69 0%
EPS 0.22 0.14 57% 0.53 0.51 4%
DPS 0.17 0.16 6%
Source : OP and FactSet
Q1/2018e 2018e
Q1 results out on Wednesday
The facts: Terveystalo reports its Q1 results on Wednesday at around 8.00 am
CET.
Our analysis: We expect Q1 sales to amount to EUR 210m and adjusted EBITDA
to be EUR 30m. Q1 earnings will include a non-recurring item of EUR 13m for
deferred tax assets that Terveystalo will now be able to utilise. The item in question
is included in our forecasts as deferred tax in the income statement, which explains
the difference in relation to consensus in terms of EPS. Otherwise, our forecasts are
marginally below consensus median (FactSet). Earnings will also include capital
gain of around EUR 6m for a real estate transaction. Diacor’s integration will bring
inorganic growth of around EUR 35m in 2018 for Terveystalo, but we also expect
that Terveystalo will grow organically this year (+6.6%). Some of the organic growth
results from minor acquisitions which the company includes in organic growth in its
own terminology. For example, Terveystalo acquired Lääkäriasema ILO in Q1 with
annual sales of EUR 0.9m.
Conclusion & Action: We repeat our Accumulate recommendation and our EUR
11.00 target price (13x EBITDA 2019E).
Terveystalo
Finland | Healthcare
HEALTHCARE Terveystalo (Accumulate) Q1 18 revenues results
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Kimmo Stenvall
+358 10 252 4561
Accumulate
9.70
closing price as of 14/05/2018
11.00
13.4%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg TTALO.HE/TTALO FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,242
Current N° of shares (m) 128
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 635
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 503.31
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 2.81/-2.17/
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 690 770 815
EBITDA (m) 68 113 121
EBITDA margin 9.9% 14.7% 14.8%
EBIT (m) 28 73 81
EBIT margin 4.1% 9.5% 10.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 5 68 92
ROCE 2.8% 7.3% 8.1%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 256 190 149
Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.4 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 3.8 1.7 1.2
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 2.8 23.6 30.9
EV/Sales 2.0 1.9 1.7
EV/EBITDA 20.4 12.7 11.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 20.4 12.7 11.5
EV/EBIT 49.4 19.5 17.1
P/E (adj.) nm 18.2 13.5
P/BV 2.5 2.4 2.2
OpFCF yield -13.8% 6.5% 7.5%
Dividend yield 0.6% 1.8% 1.8%
EPS (adj.) 0.04 0.53 0.72
BVPS 3.57 4.05 4.37
DPS 0.06 0.17 0.17
Shareholders
Varma 15%; EQT 11%; Helsingin Diakonissalaitoksen säätiö
11%;
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
TERVEYSTALO OMXS All (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Fila
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 21 of 52
Q1 18E estimates
The facts: Fila is going to publish its Q1 18E results today after market closure
(conf. call @ 6pm CET, dial in: 0267688 and *0).
Our analysis: Q1 18 results won’t be a short term driver in our thinking, since the
current focus is on the ongoing acquisition of Pacon. However, it is reasonable to
expect positive organic growth in Q1 18 (our est. in the range of 1 / 2%) and mid-
single digit negative forex effect. We expect stable EBITDA margin adj. @ 14.5%.
We remind readers that Q1 17 was tough with 6.1% organic growth.
Conclusion & Action: The new acquisition can add EUR 1.6/sh to our valuation;
considering Fila + Pacon on a pro-forma basis, FY 19E EPS accretion is more than
20% (considering a EUR 100m capital increase @ current prices) including cost
synergies.
We remind readers that Fila announced the acquisition of the American company
Pacon on May 8th. Enterprise value is USD 325m + USD 15m tax benefits, for a
cash payment of USD 340m (around 8.9x EV/EBITDA). The transaction will be
financed by a medium/long term loan for a total amount of EUR 520m and a EUR
100m capital increase.
According to Fila, cost synergies are expected to be in the range of EUR 5 / 7m per
year once the new entity is at full steam.
Pacon is a US leader in the educational segment of the school sector and the art &
craft, with revenues of USD 241.6m (EUR 203m) and EBITDA of USD 38.2m (EUR
32m; EBITDA margin 15.8%, in line with FILA).
Fila
Italy | Household Goods
HOUSEHOLD GOODS Fila (Buy) Q1 results out on Wednesday
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Giada Cabrino, CIIA
+39 02 4344 4092
Buy
19.12
closing price as of 14/05/2018
20.40
6.7%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg FILA.MI/FILA IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 788
Current N° of shares (m) 41
Free float 26%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 48
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 899.72
Price high/low 12 months 16.90 / 21.10
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 13.14/1.49/1.49
Shareholders
Pencil 66%; VEI 8%;
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
FILA FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e Sales (m) 510 540 551 EBITDA adj.(m) 80.6 89 93 EBITDA adj. margin 15.8% 16.5% 17.0% EBIT (m) 53 71 75 EBIT margin 10.4% 13.2% 13.6% Net Profit (adj.)(m) 34 45 46 ROCE 8.1% 9.1% 9.6% Net debt/(cash) (m) 240 187 148 Net Debt/Equity 1.0 0.6 0.4 Debt/EBITDA 3.3 2.1 1.6 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.3 14.8 11.7 EV/Sales 2.1 1.9 1.8 EV/EBITDA 14.9 11.4 10.4 EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.5 11.4 10.4 EV/EBIT 20.5 14.2 13.0 P/E (adj.) 28.0 17.6 17.3 P/BV 4.2 3.1 2.7 OpFCF yield -0.6% 4.8% 5.3% Dividend yield 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% EPS (adj.) 0.70 1.08 1.11 BVPS 4.70 6.07 7.13 DPS 0.09 0.16 0.18
Biesse
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 22 of 52
Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders
The facts: Biesse published its Q1 18 results yesterday during trading time.
Q1 17a Q1 18a % Chg
Sales 161.5 162.3 +0.5%
EBITDA 21.6 21.6 -8.5%
% margin 13.4% 12.2%
Our analysis:
Q1 18 sales flat trend especially due to though comparison base (Q1 17 sales
growth of +37%): the group recorded good sales growth in Eastern Europe
(+14.1%), Apac (+2.5%) and RoW (+141.1%), which allowed the group to offset
the decreasing performance in North America (-13.5%) and Western Europe (-
6.5%). The sales mix negatively temporary impacted Q1 profitability (Q1 18
EBITDA -8.5% Y/Y).
Very strong order portfolio: Biesse’s order intake in Q1 18 increased by 10.5%
compared to Q1 17 and the total order backlog at the end of March 2018
reached EUR 234m (+24.2% Y/Y).
Listing of HSD: the management confirmed the listing HSD on the STAR segment of
the Italian Stock Exchange. Biesse will retain the control of HSD following its
listing on the Stock Market. It was planned a maximum number of shares being
offered in the private placing equal to 50%. HSD has today also approved a
capital increase for subscription by Biesse for a maximum value of about EUR
16.2m, establishing a subscription price equal to the price of the future private
placing in connection with the listing. Biesse has decided to subscribe to this
increase by utilising its own dividend credits and distribution of reserves already
approved for the 2017 financial year but not yet paid by HSD, which are equal to
the aforementioned amount.
2018 guidance confirmed: during the post-result conference call, the management
explained that, in light of the strong order backlog and on the very good visibility
on the reset of the year, they are very confident to achieve FY 18 results in line
with the guidance announced in February: FY 18 sales around EUR 759m and
FY 18 EBITDA margin around 13.4%.
Our estimates: based on the management outlook, we maintain our 2018 estimates,
which are substantially in line with the guidance: FY 18e sales at EUR 756.2m
and FY 18e EBITDA margin of 13.4%
Conclusion & Action: we confirm our target price of EUR 49.70 per share
calculated based on our DCF model (WACC 7.2%, 1.2% perpetual growth rate) and
confirm our accumulate recommendation.
We confirm our Accumulate recommendation while we are waiting to verify the
impact of the listing of HSD expected within the coming 3 months.
Biesse
Italy | Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Biesse (Accumulate) Q1 18E estimates
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Paola Saglietti
+39 02 4344 4287
Accumulate
44.24
closing price as of 14/05/2018
49.70
12.3%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg BSS.MI/BSS IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,212
Current N° of shares (m) 27
Free float 33%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 65
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,701.24
Price high/low 12 months 30.58 / 53.10
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.82/2.27/42.48
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 690 756 824
EBITDA (m) 89 101 113
EBITDA margin 12.9% 13.4% 13.7%
EBIT (m) 63 73 83
EBIT margin 9.2% 9.7% 10.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 38 44 50
ROCE 21.2% 24.7% 26.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (30) (74) (115)
Net Debt/Equity -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Debt/EBITDA -0.3 -0.7 -1.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 31.7 32.9 33.7
EV/Sales 1.7 1.5 1.3
EV/EBITDA 12.8 11.4 9.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.8 11.4 9.8
EV/EBIT 18.0 15.7 13.4
P/E (adj.) 30.3 27.5 24.3
P/BV 6.2 5.3 4.4
OpFCF yield 5.5% 3.7% 4.5%
Dividend yield 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
EPS (adj.) 1.40 1.61 1.82
BVPS 6.85 8.33 10.05
DPS 0.36 0.36 0.36
Shareholders
BI.FIN s.r.l. 51%;
30
35
40
45
50
55
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
BIESSE Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Carraro
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 23 of 52
Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance
The facts: CARR released its Q1 2018 results yesterday during trading hours; the
results are not far from our estimates and the company also improved its FY18
qualitative outlook on the back of strong expected volumes.
Our analysis: the company released only three key data:
Revenues: EUR 157m (+8.3% Y/Y), better than our EUR 150m estimate
notwithstanding a strong adverse FOREX impact not disclosed by the company.
Adj. EBITDA: EUR 15.1m (-5% Y/Y), slightly worse our EUR 15.9m estimate.
Net Debt (EUR 146m as at the end of 2017) came in at EUR 162m, slightly worse
than we expected (EUR 155m)
It seems that the AG business (~45% of CARR revenues) is holding relatively well
and that the construction business is growing soundly in nearly every region.
When it comes to the FY18 guidance, CARR said that it expects margins to
improve Y/Y in the course of 2018 thanks to cost control and stronger-than-
originally-expected volumes of sales. This outlook is marginally better via-à-vis the
original one which envisaged a decline in margins due to higher raw mat costs,
supply chain difficulties and the launch of new tractor versions.
Conclusion & Action: Q1 results are decent and only a bit short of our
assumptions. CARR improved the FY18 outlook on margins thanks to higher
volumes, boosted by a growing market.
We stress that our estimates already incorporate a certain level of growth and
margin expansion and that we always considered the company’s guidance too
conservative. We are going to speak to the management today; we keep our
estimates unchanged for the time being.
Carraro
Italy | Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Carraro (Buy) Weak Q1 18 results, but FY guidance based on strong orders
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Gabriele Gambarova
+39 02 43 444 289
Buy
3.56
closing price as of 14/05/2018
5.80
62.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg CARRA.MI/CARR IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 284
Current N° of shares (m) 80
Free float 26%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 326
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,198.00
Price high/low 12 months 2.22 / 4.90
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 11.95/2.74/53.58
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 594 579 607
EBITDA (m) 40 48 61
EBITDA margin 6.7% 8.2% 10.1%
EBIT (m) 12 31 41
EBIT margin 2.0% 5.4% 6.8%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 0 15 23
ROCE 4.8% 11.7% 13.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 182 140 126
Net Debt/Equity 3.9 1.7 1.3
Debt/EBITDA 4.6 2.9 2.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 2.5 4.8 7.9
EV/Sales 0.4 0.8 0.7
EV/EBITDA 5.9 9.3 6.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 5.2 8.3 6.3
EV/EBIT 20.0 14.2 9.8
P/E (adj.) nm 21.8 nm
P/BV 1.3 3.8 3.0
OpFCF yield 17.7% 4.9% 7.9%
Dividend yield 0.0% 2.5% 4.0%
EPS (adj.) (0.21) 0.18 0.00
BVPS 1.02 1.01 1.20
DPS 0.00 0.09 0.14
Shareholders
FINAID + Carraro + Alessandri 44%; Julia Arduini 27%; Own
shares 3%;
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
CARRARO FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Emak
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 24 of 52
Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather
The facts: Q1 18 results are due out today.
Our analysis: despite the impact of the negative weather conditions in March and
the negative forex effect, we expect positive sales growth in Q1 18 thanks to the
contribution of Lavorwash.
we expect the counter-dilutive effect of Lavorwash to also support profitability.
The following table shows our sales and profitability forecast.
(EUR m) Q1 17a Q1 18e %Chg.
Sales 119.2 130.9 9.8%
EBITDA adj 17.3 18.0 4.4%
EBIT margin 14.5% 15.0%
Conclusion & Action: we expect to verify our FY 18 estimates based on the
management's outlook post Q1 results. For the moment, given the still strong stock
price undervaluation, we confirm our Accumulate recommendation.
Emak
Italy | Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Emak (Accumulate) Q1 2018 results in line – Improved FY18 guidance
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Paola Saglietti
+39 02 4344 4287
Accumulate
1.44
closing price as of 14/05/2018
1.80
25.3%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg EM.MI/EM IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 235
Current N° of shares (m) 164
Free float 26%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 273
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 210.89
Price high/low 12 months 1.24 / 2.08
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 6.69/2.72/-23.58
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 422 467 477
EBITDA (m) 44 55 58
EBITDA margin 10.4% 11.7% 12.1%
EBIT (m) 30 39 44
EBIT margin 7.1% 8.4% 9.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 16 23 27
ROCE 6.3% 8.2% 9.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 126 112 84
Net Debt/Equity 0.7 0.5 0.4
Debt/EBITDA 2.9 2.0 1.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 6.4 8.1 8.5
EV/Sales 0.9 0.8 0.7
EV/EBITDA 8.6 6.7 5.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 8.6 6.7 5.8
EV/EBIT 12.6 9.3 7.7
P/E (adj.) 14.5 10.1 8.9
P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1
OpFCF yield -14.5% 23.7% 13.9%
Dividend yield 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
EPS (adj.) 0.10 0.14 0.16
BVPS 1.13 1.23 1.36
DPS 0.04 0.04 0.04
Shareholders
YAMA Group 65%;
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
EMAK Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Exel Composites
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 25 of 52
Exel Composites
Q1/2017a Growth
EURm Q1a vs. Cons. OP Cons. Diff.
Sales 21.5 #DIV/0! 22.5 #DIV/0! 20.3 11%
EBIT, reported 1.6 #DIV/0! 2.0 #DIV/0! 1.7 21%
EBIT, excl. NRI 1.8 #DIV/0! 2.0 #DIV/0! 1.7 21%
Total EBIT margin 8.3 % #DIV/0! 8.9 % #DIV/0! 8.2 %#DIV/0! #DIV/0!
PTP #DIV/0! 1.9 #DIV/0! 1.6 22%
EPS 0.08 -11% 0.12 0.09 31% 0.09 33%#DIV/0!
DPS #DIV/0!
Source: OP
Q1/2018e
Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation
The facts: According to Exel Composites’ business review, its sales increased in
Q1 by 6% to EUR 21.5m (OPe: EUR 22.5m). Adjusted EBIT improved by EUR 0.1m
YoY to EUR 1.8m (OPe: EUR 2.0m) corresponding to an 8.3% EBIT margin. Order
intake decreased by 2.3% to EUR 22m.
Our analysis: Sales growth was supported by the favourable demand environment
in Europe and the acquisition of Nanjing Jianhui business in China, which was not
yet included in the figures of the comparison period. Profitability level remained
stable even though it was burdened by cost efficiency measures related to the
production network. The factory in China is being ramped up in order to also cater
customers in Australia where production has been terminated. The company
announced in April that it will acquire American Diversified Structural Composites
(DSC). The acquired company's annual sales amount to around EUR 16m and its
EBIT is nearly EUR 1m negative. The company is carrying out cost savings and
efficiency measures that are estimated to raise the company’s EBIT to break even in
2019. DSC is focusing on quickly growing segments, such as wind power and
transportation equipment industry, which complement Exel Composites’ portfolio.
Conclusion & Action: According to Exel Composites’ guidance, revenue is
expected to increase significantly and adjusted operating profit is expected to
increase in 2018 compared to 2017. We have also revised our estimates to include
the DSC acquisition, which is consolidated as part of the group as of the beginning
of May. Thus, our 2018 sales forecast is upgraded by 10% to EUR 104m. However,
our EBIT forecast is downgraded by -10% to EUR 7.1m. Our EPS projections for
2018–2019 are EUR 0.40 and EUR 0.48. As a result of our downgraded earnings
forecasts, our target price is downgraded to EUR 6.80 (previously EUR 7.40) on the
basis of 2018–19 average PE 15x. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation.
Exel Composites
Finland | Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Exel Composites (Accumulate) Q1 18 preview: potential negative impact of weather
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Jari Raisanen
+358 10 252 4504
Accumulate
6.20
closing price as of 14/05/2018
6.80
7.40
9.7%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg EXL1V.HE/EXL1V FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 74
Current N° of shares (m) 12
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 10
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 42.54
Price high/low 12 months 6.06 / 7.60
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.32/-2.82/1.47
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 86 104 114
EBITDA (m) 9 10 12
EBITDA margin 10.5% 10.0% 10.5%
EBIT (m) 6 7 9
EBIT margin 7.1% 6.9% 7.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 4 5 6
ROCE 12.4% 11.5% 13.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 9 16 15
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.5 0.5
Debt/EBITDA 1.0 1.6 1.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 14.0 14.6 16.0
EV/Sales 1.0 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA 9.7 8.9 7.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 8.9 7.7
EV/EBIT 14.5 13.0 10.9
P/E (adj.) 18.8 15.6 13.0
P/BV 2.7 2.4 2.2
OpFCF yield 2.1% 2.7% 5.2%
Dividend yield 4.8% 4.8% 5.6%
EPS (adj.) 0.35 0.40 0.48
BVPS 2.42 2.60 2.78
DPS 0.30 0.30 0.35
Shareholders
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (Hallintarekisteröity) 20%;
Nordea Pankki Suomi Oyj (Hallintarekisteröity) 15%;
Sijoitusrahasto Nordea Suomi 5%;
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.6
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
EXEL COMPOSITES Stoxx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Fincantieri
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 26 of 52
New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea
The facts: yesterday after trading hours, FCT announced that it had got a new
contract to supply an ultra-luxury cruise ship (“Silver Dawn”) to Silversea Cruises,
with delivery scheduled for Q4 2021. The value of the contract is EUR 320m.
Our analysis: the “Silver Dawn” will be a sister ship of Silversea’s flagship, Silver
Muse, delivered by FCT in April 2017; it will be the third ship of the Muse class. The
vessel has a 40,700 ton weight and can accommodate 596 passengers with an all-
suite configuration.
We remind you that FCT’s order backlog stood at EUR 21.8bn as at the end of
March 2018; the Silver Dawn contract weighs ~6% of the expected revenues for
2018.
Conclusion & Action: the news is positive and not discounted.
Fincantieri
Italy | Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING Fincantieri (Buy) Q1 slightly below forecasts – earnings forecasts burdened by DSC consolidation
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Gabriele Gambarova
+39 02 43 444 289
Buy
1.38
closing price as of 14/05/2018
1.65
19.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg FCT.MI/FCT IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,328
Current N° of shares (m) 1,692
Free float 28%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 7,696
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 5,033.13
Price high/low 12 months 0.82 / 1.52
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 10.08/3.93/52.47
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 5,020 5,456 5,881
EBITDA (m) 341 396 454
EBITDA margin 6.8% 7.3% 7.7%
EBIT (m) 222 271 323
EBIT margin 4.4% 5.0% 5.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 88 95 121
ROCE 9.3% 10.5% 12.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 314 543 505
Net Debt/Equity 0.2 0.4 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 0.9 1.4 1.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.1 2.9 3.0
EV/Sales 0.5 0.6 0.5
EV/EBITDA 7.4 7.6 6.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.4 7.6 6.5
EV/EBIT 11.4 11.1 9.2
P/E (adj.) 24.0 24.4 19.2
P/BV 1.7 1.8 1.7
OpFCF yield 18.7% -9.7% 2.1%
Dividend yield 0.7% 0.8% 1.1%
EPS (adj.) 0.05 0.06 0.07
BVPS 0.73 0.77 0.81
DPS 0.01 0.01 0.01
Shareholders
Italian Treasury 72%; Vanguard 0.57%; Dimensional 0.24%;
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
FINCANTIERI FTSE All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
$nomcompagnie2$
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 27 of 52
Q1 comparison
EBIT*, EURm
2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 2018 2017 Change 2018 2017 Change
Cargotec 773 792 -2% 57 59 -3% 7.4 % 7.4 % 863 857 1% 239 235 2%
KONE 2008 1943 3% 218 246 -11% 10.9 % 12.7 % 1909 1913 0%
Konecranes 673 684 -2% 37 31 20% 5.5 % 4.5 % 683 735 -7% 239 246 -3%
Metso** 714 648 10% 85 66 28% 11.9 % 10.2 % 684 672 2% 490 451 9%
Outotec 287 263 9% 7 1 775% 2.4 % 0.3 % 334 318 5% 131 115 14%
Valmet** 732 644 14% 22 34 -35% 3.0 % 5.3 % 890 1005 -11% 346 355 -3%
Wärtsilä 1066 1005 6% 88 82 7% 8.3 % 8.2 % 1507 1413 7% 737 735 0%
Median 6% 7.4 % 7.4 % 1% 1%
Alfa Laval** (MSEK) 8851 8126 9% 1497 1279 17% 16.9 % 15.7 % 10025 8801 14%
Atlas Copco (MSEK) 21906 20578 6% 4833 4290 13% 22.1 % 20.8 % 24829 23325 6%
Sandvik (MSEK) 23685 21758 9% 4271 3495 22% 18.0 % 16.1 % 25419 24916 2%
SKF (MSEK) 20560 19601 5% 2625 2295 14% 12.8 % 11.7 %
FLSmidth** (MDKK) 4235 4371 -3% 343 372 -8% 8.1 % 8.5 % 5018 5561 -10% 2885 2868 1%
Median 6% 16.9 % 15.7 % 4%
MEDIAN - All 6% 9.6 % 9.4 % 2%
* Excl. NRI
** EBITA
Source: Interim reports Q1/2018, OP, 14 May 2018
Service orders, EURmSales, EURm Orders, total, EURmEBIT margin
Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers
In Q1, most Nordic industrial engineering companies improved their sales and
margins from last year. Somewhat surprisingly, double-digit growth was shown by
Metso (Accumulate) and Valmet (Buy). Metso improved its performance from the
weak previous quarter more than expected. Valmet's earnings were eroded by a
loss of EUR 15m in a pulp project. The company's healthy order intake is an
indicator of an active market and the outlook for services, in particular, seems bright.
Finnish companies' order intake and sales suffered from exchange rates, while the
weak SEK propped up the figures for Swedish peers. KONE (Neutral) was the only
one to reveal the impact of exchange rates on Q1 EBIT (around EUR -20m, -8%).
The weak USD dented the profitability of especially Cargotec's (Buy) Hiab which,
however, still remained healthy.
Swedish peers attained much higher margins in Q1 than Finnish companies.
Exchange rates or greater seasonality (modest Q1) for Finnish firms only explain
part of the difference. Lack of large orders still harms figures for, for example,
Outotec (Neutral), Konecranes (Buy) and Cargotec's MacGregor. Swedish
companies' product line-up is more focused on individual and specialised
equipment. Differences exist in clientele, too. Conventional heavy industry – energy,
raw materials, paper and pulp – forms the key customer sector for Finnish
companies, while Swedish companies' customer base includes automotive,
electronics and other specialised industries.
The profitability spread between Finnish and Swedish companies will not remain as
wide as in Q1 2018 because Finnish companies will markedly improve their
performance in the coming quarters. However, Swedish companies clearly perform
better, albeit owing to the weak SEK at the moment.
Finnish Industrial Engineering
INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING New EUR 320m contract with SilverSea
Analyser 15 May 2018
---------- Stoxx Industrial Engineering, ___ DJ Stoxx TMI rebased on sector
Analyst(s)
Pekka Spolander, OP Corporate Bank
+358 10 252 4351
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
290
295
300
305
310
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
Allianz
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 28 of 52
Q1 results slightly better than expected
The facts: Allianz has just reported slightly better than expected results on an
operating profit level. Operating profit was down by 6% yoy to EUR 2,756m
(equinet: EUR 2,710m). Net profit was up by 7% yoy to EUR 1.9bn which is above
our forecast of EUR 1.7bn due to a lower than forecasted tax rate and higher non-
operating profit. C/R in P/C was with 94.8% below our forecast of 96.0%. Both nat
cat ratio (2.6%-pts.) and the run-off result (3.2%-pts.) were slightly better than
expected. Positively ALV achieved positive price development of 1.3%-pts. in Q1. In
Asset Management net flows amounted to EUR 21bn (equinet: EUR 28bn), 3rd
party AuM declined by 1% qoq to EUR 1,429bn due to FX and market performance.
Solvency II ratio declined by 4%-pts. qoq to 225% due to various reasons.
Our analysis:
Conclusion & Action: All in all a good start into the year, ALV seems to be well on
track to reach its EUR 11.1bn operating profit target.
Allianz
Germany | Insurance
INSURANCE Allianz (Neutral) Industrial engineering – muted Q1 in Finland, strong profitability for Swedish peers
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Philipp Häßler, CFA
+49 69 58997 414
Neutral
190.44
closing price as of 14/05/2018
200.00
5.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ALVG.DE/ALV GY
Market capitalisation (EURm) 82,716
Current N° of shares (m) 434
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 1,222
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 189,442.57
Price high/low 12 months 169.80 / 205.75
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.54/1.34/10.21
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Life Gross premiums (m) 67,277 67,277 70,641
Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 52,262 53,307 54,373
Total Net Revenues (m) 149,512 149,357 153,567
Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) -8,295 -6,909 -6,394
Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 1,932 2,009 2,255
EBIT (m) 10,949 11,864 12,278
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 6,803 7,288 7,585
Shareholders Equity (m) 65,553 69,366 69,366
ANAV (m) 37,593 40,922 40,424
ROE (adj.) (%) 10.2 10.8 10.9
Combined ratio (%) 96.2 95.3 95.0
Solvency Ratio 214.7% 221.2% 227.5%
P/E (adj.) 12.6 11.5 11.0
P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.2
P/ANAV 2.3 2.0 2.0
P/EbV 1.2 1.1 1.1
Dividend Yield 4.2% 4.2% 4.4%
EPS (adj.) 15.16 16.62 17.30
BVPS 147.44 159.70 159.70
ANAVPS 84.55 94.22 93.07
EbVPS 163.01 177.56 179.60
DPS 8.00 8.00 8.40
Shareholders
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18
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ALLIANZ Stoxx Insurance (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Allianz - Q1 2018
EUR m Q1 18 Q1 18e Q1 17 yoy Cons. delta
Net premiums 36,500 35,700 36,200 0.8% na na
C/R P/R 94.8% 96.0% 95.6% -0.8%-p 94.9% 0%
Operating res. 2,756 2,710 2,932 -6.0% 2,789 -1%
P/C 1,274 1,250 1,259 1.2% 1,311 -3%
L/H 1,069 1,100 1,155 -7.4% 1,110 -4%
Asset Man. 595 560 572 4.0% 597 0%
Others -182 -200 -54 na na na
Pretax Profit 2,682 2,510 2,712 -1.1% na na
Net income 1,939 1,707 1,816 6.8% 1,787 9%
Sources: Allianz, equinet Research
AXA
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 29 of 52
Time to integrate XL
The facts: Axa has finalised the IPO of its life and asset management businesses in
the US (Axa Equitable Holdings).
Our analysis: Recall that the shares were offered at USD20 each vs. an estimated
range of USD24-27 a week earlier. In the meantime, the US insurance sector
endured a severe correction due to problems for Unum. Nevertheless, we note that
the financing of the XL deal is now secured as the company was able to place,
taking into account the over-allocation, 28.2% of the shares (i.e. EUR2.66bn) and
issued a USD750m (i.e. EUR0.61bn) bond mandatorily redeemable into shares. The
debt issued is considered equity and thus has a non-significant effect on gearing.
Axa has also planned to take on EUR3bn in debt (o/w EUR2.0bn already realised),
which would increase gearing from 28% to 32%. We understand that the company
could stop at EUR2.0bn given the various elements that enable it to finalise the XL
acquisition without issuing further debt. This could have a beneficial effect on
gearing of ca. 1-1.5 points.
Conclusion & Action: The concern over the financing of XL has ben lifted despite
a placement at less advantageous conditions than expected. That said the company
is still a shareholder of AEH with a stake of more than 70% and it will continue to
receive dividends. The company’s earnings are not likely to be diluted in 2018
thanks to the integration of XL and the solvency ratio is estimated at between 190%
and 200% (vs 211% in Q1-2018).
AXA
France | Insurance
INSURANCE AXA (Accumulate) Q1 results slightly better than expected
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Pierre Chedeville
+33 1 53 48 80 97
Accumulate
22.57
closing price as of 14/05/2018
28.50
26.3%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg AXAF.PA/CS FP
Market capitalisation (EURm) 54,833
Current N° of shares (m) 2,430
Free float 72%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 6,400
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 109,373.97
Price high/low 12 months 21.14 / 27.44
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.59/-9.20/-6.89
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Life Gross premiums (m) 60,283 59,384 60,514
Non-Life Gross prem.(m) 39,953 35,494 36,194
Total Net Revenues (m) 100,602 99,576 101,651
Life Ins.Tech.Result (m) 1,498 1,539 1,594
Non-Life Ins. Tech.Result 1,230 1,264 1,528
EBIT (m) 7,940 8,108 8,694
Net Profit (adj.) (m) 5,933 6,019 6,420
Shareholders Equity (m) 70,597 73,767 77,331
ANAV (m) 0 0 0
ROE (adj.) (%) 12.5 12.9 13.1
Combined ratio (%) 96.5 96.4 95.7
Solvency Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
P/E (adj.) 10.0 9.6 8.2
P/BV 0.8 0.8 0.7
P/ANAV 1.1 1.1 0.9
P/EbV 1.1 1.1 1.0
Dividend Yield 5.1% 5.5% 5.9%
EPS (adj.) 2.41 2.59 2.75
BVPS 31.31 32.45 33.93
ANAVPS 22.17 23.36 24.84
EbVPS 21.67 21.96 22.51
DPS 1.16 1.25 1.33
Shareholders
Mutuelles Axa 15%; Employees 8%; BNP Paribas 5%;
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
AXA CAC 40 (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Astaldi
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 30 of 52
EUR 193m new orders in LatAm
The facts: the company said yesterday that it had been awarded two new
construction contracts totalling EUR 193m referring to Astaldi’s stake, for projects in
Chile and Mexico.
Our analysis: In Mexico the company has been awarded a contract worth USD
350m (EUR 120m Astaldi’s stake) at Mexico City’s new International Airport
In Chile the company has been awarded a construction contract worth EUR 73m
(CLP 53.4bn first phase works), with a possible increase up to a maximum
additional amount of EUR 85 million. Commissioned by CODELCO and to be
performed in various phases by the end of 2022, the works are part of the project for
the underground development of the El Teniente copper mine, stretching between
elevations of 1,500 and 1,900 metres in the Andes, 80 kilometres south of Santiago
de Chile.
Conclusion & Action: the company said yesterday evening that it would publish its
first quarter results today. The main issue is the upcoming capital increase, the
details of which have not been disclosed yet.
Astaldi
Italy | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Astaldi (Reduce) Time to integrate XL
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Francesco Sala
+39 02 4344 4240
Reduce
2.81
closing price as of 14/05/2018
-100.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Recommendation unchanged
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg AST.MI/AST IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 288
Current N° of shares (m) 102
Free float 48%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 886
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,234.23
Price high/low 12 months 2.02 / 6.09
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 27.15/12.40/-50.27
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 3,061 3,271 3,351
EBITDA (m) 366 360 369
EBITDA margin 12.0% 11.0% 11.0%
EBIT (m) 81 294 302
EBIT margin 2.7% 9.0% 9.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (96) 92 102
ROCE -7.8% -70.4% -73.6%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,160 1,059 921
Net Debt/Equity 2.0 1.6 1.2
Debt/EBITDA 3.2 2.9 2.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 1.9 2.3 2.5
EV/Sales 0.5 0.4 0.4
EV/EBITDA 3.8 3.8 3.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.8 3.8 3.3
EV/EBIT 17.0 4.6 4.0
P/E (adj.) nm 3.1 2.8
P/BV 0.4 0.4 0.4
OpFCF yield -85.6% 26.6% 39.6%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (0.95) 0.90 0.99
BVPS 5.68 6.33 7.26
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
Astaldi family 52%;
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
ASTALDI Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Eiffage
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 31 of 52
A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project
The facts: Eiffage has reported revenues of EUR3.379bn, up +4.3% l-f-l.
Our analysis: The publication unsurprisingly shows robust activity in Concessions
(+9.2%), although partly boosted by the calendar effect, and a more modest
increase in Contracting (+3.1%), due to poor weather conditions at end-
February/early March. However, the most notable factor is the level of the
Contracting order book, boosted by the Grand Paris Express metro project (GPE)
which hit a record best with EUR14.1bn at end-March (EUR12bn at end-December
2017). The integration of the orders for lot 1 for line 16 of the Grand Paris Express
linking Saint-Denis to Noisy (EUR1.7bn) has enabled Eiffage to leap forward (the
Contracting order book before the crisis stood at around EUR10bn). Eiffage, which
beat Vinci and Bouygues, is steering the project together with NGE-TSO and the
contracting subsidiaries of the Fayat group (Raze-Bec and Séfi-Intrafor).
Conclusion & Action: IV of EUR97.4 under revision. Eiffage, at a later date than
Vinci, entered a virtuous spiral three years ago, welcomed by the market, erasing
the memory of the difficult years of 2010-2013.
Eiffage
France | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE Eiffage (Accumulate) EUR 193m new orders in LatAm
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq
+33 1 53 48 80 65
Accumulate
100.45
closing price as of 14/05/2018
97.39
-3.1%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg FOUG.PA/FGR FP
Market capitalisation (EURm) 9,844
Current N° of shares (m) 98
Free float 68%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 290
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 21,392.90
Price high/low 12 months 76.91 / 100.45
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 6.18/11.36/28.29
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 14,307 15,289 15,960
EBITDA (m) 2,495 2,674 2,824
EBITDA margin 17.4% 17.5% 17.7%
EBIT (m) 1,597 1,729 1,849
EBIT margin 11.2% 11.3% 11.6%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 416 545 595
ROCE 6.9% 7.4% 7.9%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 11,641 10,600 10,170
Net Debt/Equity 2.7 2.1 1.8
Debt/EBITDA 4.7 4.0 3.6
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.3 5.2 6.5
EV/Sales 1.6 1.6 1.6
EV/EBITDA 9.1 9.0 8.9
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.1 9.0 8.9
EV/EBIT 14.2 13.9 13.6
P/E (adj.) 14.8 16.1 16.3
P/BV 1.8 2.1 2.1
OpFCF yield 6.4% 9.6% 8.9%
Dividend yield 1.5% 2.0% 2.1%
EPS (adj.) 4.47 5.66 6.18
BVPS 37.13 43.72 48.34
DPS 1.50 2.00 2.10
Shareholders
Employees 21%; Blackrock 10%; Treasury Stock 1.60%;
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
EIFFAGE Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)
Source: Factset
SIAS
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 32 of 52
Sound growth expected in Q1
The facts: the company is publishing its Q1 18 revenues today.
Our analysis: we expect sizeably higher revenues on the back of higher traffic and
tariffs:
Q1 17 Q1 18e Y/Y
Revenues 228.4 242.7 6.2%
o/w tolls 221.4 235.2 6.3%
Conclusion & Action: we expect a sizeably higher revenues in Q1 18; we also
expect this trend to continue in the following quarters.
SIAS
Italy | Materials, Construction & Infrastructure
MATERIALS, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE SIAS (Buy) A record order book, boosted by the Grand Paris project
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Francesco Sala
+39 02 4344 4240
Buy
17.28
closing price as of 14/05/2018
17.00
-1.6%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg SIS.MI/SIS IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,931
Current N° of shares (m) 228
Free float 30%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 260
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 8,159.55
Price high/low 12 months 9.55 / 18.39
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 8.82/25.67/79.07
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 1,090 1,129 1,255
EBITDA (m) 661 697 772
EBITDA margin 60.7% 61.7% 61.5%
EBIT (m) 355 380 419
EBIT margin 32.6% 33.6% 33.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 162 180 205
ROCE 6.1% 6.7% 6.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,648 1,486 1,551
Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.7 0.6
Debt/EBITDA 2.5 2.1 2.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8.8 10.8 12.2
EV/Sales 2.3 3.6 3.7
EV/EBITDA 3.8 5.8 6.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 3.8 5.8 6.0
EV/EBIT 7.1 10.7 11.0
P/E (adj.) 11.4 19.6 19.2
P/BV 1.0 1.7 1.9
OpFCF yield 0.3% 6.8% 0.8%
Dividend yield 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
EPS (adj.) 0.71 0.79 0.90
BVPS 8.43 8.88 9.33
DPS 0.34 0.37 0.37
Shareholders
Gavio Group 70%;
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
SIAS Stoxx Construction & Materials (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Mediaset
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 33 of 52
Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market
The facts: Preview of Q1 2018 results (publication today).
Our analysis: 2018 started with a weak tone in terms of advertising collection both
in Spain and in Italy. Mediaset Espana reported a 4.8% Y/Y decline in TV revenues,
in line with its reference market, also due to the “Easter effect” (indeed April was up
by 10% Y/Y) which drove adj EBITDA down by 17% Y/Y. This performance was in
any case largely expected, and EBIT and net income slightly surpassed our
expectations. In Italy, the TV advertising market was up by 0.6% Y/Y in the first two
months, but Mediaset was down by 0.9%. The company has been noticing some
improvements from the second part of March. We expect a slightly higher EBIT loss
for the TV unit, also depending on the rate of decline of Pay-TV revenues, given the
Y/Y revenue decline and since most of the cost reduction will materialize in H2 with
the expiration of soccer rights.
Mediaset Q1 2018 Preview (EUR m)
Q1 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018e Y/Y Q/Q
Total Group Revenues 889 1,117 853 -4.1% -23.6% Italian Revenues 649 821 623 -4.0% -24.1% SBU ITA TV 630 798 601 -4.6% -24.7% ow Advertising 512 673 505 -1.5% -25.0% ow Pay TV 151 156 130 -14.1% -16.5% EIT revenues 64.6 66.9 67.5 4.4% 0.9% MSE net revenues (a) 240 295 230 -4.5% -22.2% Group EBIT (rep) 76.6 126 59.2 -22.7% -52.9% Italian EBIT -0.3 85.5 -4.4 nm -105.2% SBU ITA TV EBIT -24.0 66.4 -29.6 23% nm EIT EBIT 23.7 19.1 25.2 6.4% 31.9% MSE EBIT (a) 76.8 59.9 63.6 -17.1% 6.1% Pre-tax profit 72.7 112 51.2 -29.6% -54.4%
Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates (a) Spain actual results
Outlook. Q2 should be a better quarter on an underlying basis both in Italy and
Spain. The broadcasting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup will boost advertising
collection in June and July. In H2, the agreement with Sky will contribute above
EUR 30m to the revenue and EBIT line. The company guides for a cost base of
EUR 2,245/2,275m for the domestic TV unit. In Spain, the cost guidance was set at
EUR 770m. EIT has recently reiterated its EBITDA guidance (>EUR 136m).
Conclusion & Action: We anticipate a modest quarter given the weak advertising
market but we have more positive expectations for the next few months, also
supported by company-specific drivers.
Mediaset
Italy | Media
MEDIA Mediaset (Accumulate) Sound growth expected in Q1
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Devita, CFA
+39 02 4344 4031
Accumulate
3.32
closing price as of 14/05/2018
3.55
6.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg MS.MI/MS IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,922
Current N° of shares (m) 1,181
Free float 32%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 4,719
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 9,836.56
Price high/low 12 months 2.85 / 3.79
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 2.25/5.70/-9.34
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 3,631 3,494 3,329
EBITDA (m) 458 578 873
EBITDA margin 12.6% 16.5% 26.2%
EBIT (m) 316 395 716
EBIT margin 8.7% 11.3% 21.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 115 114 291
ROCE 5.8% 6.9% 12.6%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,392 1,213 905
Net Debt/Equity 0.6 0.5 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 3.0 2.1 1.0
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 16.0 19.3 43.6
EV/Sales 1.9 1.9 1.9
EV/EBITDA 14.8 11.6 7.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 14.8 11.6 7.3
EV/EBIT 21.4 17.0 8.9
P/E (adj.) 33.2 34.3 13.5
P/BV 2.0 1.9 1.7
OpFCF yield -30.2% -15.9% -5.8%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.9% 1.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.10 0.10 0.25
BVPS 1.62 1.71 1.95
DPS 0.00 0.03 0.05
Shareholders
Silvio Berlusconi 40%; Vivendi 29%; Treasury Shares 4%;
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.30
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.70
3.80
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
MEDIASET Stoxx Media (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Geox
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 34 of 52
Q1 18 sales results expected weak
The facts: Geox is going to publish its Q1 18 sales results today after the market
closure (conf. call @ 5:30 pm CET +39 02 805 88 11).
Our analysis: We expect quite a weak quarter, despite the promising 3.5% S/S
order backlog (which covers only a small portion of Q1 wholesale, though): Q1 18
was hit by unfavourable weather conditions (some delays in shipping and overall
weak retail could have occurred). We expect wholesale channel sales down 6.5% to
EUR148m. We estimate DOS and franchisers revenues down as well. The company
already warned in February (during FY 17 results presentation)
that in the first 7 weeks of the year DOS like-for-like growth was slightly negative,
due to lower promotional sales vs. last year (lower inventories availability); DOS full
price sales were flat.
As such, after bad March due to weather conditions, DOS revenues are down 5% in
our estimates to EUR 81.6m. Franchisers should have been more penalised than
DOS in terms of space, considering closures and DOS take-over of franchisees. We
estimate franchisers down 10% to EUR 48.2m. We estimate EUR 278m revenues in
Q1 18 (-6.7% Y/Y at reported forex).
Conclusion & Action: In another transitional year Q1 18 shouldn’t be of great
importance, we think. Focus will be on future plans of recovery (we remind you that
the new CEO comes from Gucci). We keep our neutral on the stock.
Geox
Italy | Personal Goods
PERSONAL GOODS Geox (Neutral) Q1 2018 Pre: starting the year in a weak ad market
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Giada Cabrino, CIIA
+39 02 4344 4092
Neutral
2.84
closing price as of 14/05/2018
3.00
5.6%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg GEO.MI/GEO IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 736
Current N° of shares (m) 259
Free float 29%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 654
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,090.85
Price high/low 12 months 2.60 / 3.85
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.18/4.41/0.78
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 901 885 905
EBITDA (m) 48 74 84
EBITDA margin 5.3% 8.4% 9.3%
EBIT (m) 13 40 49
EBIT margin 1.4% 4.5% 5.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2 25 27
ROCE 2.4% 8.1% 9.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 36 5 (20)
Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.1 -0.2
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 8.6 21.8 27.9
EV/Sales 0.7 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA 13.7 10.8 9.0
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.7 10.8 9.0
EV/EBIT 50.6 19.8 15.5
P/E (adj.) nm 48.7 26.8
P/BV 1.6 2.1 1.9
OpFCF yield -9.4% 8.4% 2.8%
Dividend yield 0.7% 2.1% 2.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.01 0.06 0.11
BVPS 1.39 1.35 1.47
DPS 0.02 0.06 0.07
Shareholders
Mario Moretti Polegato 71%;
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
GEOX Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Marimekko
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 35 of 52
Forecast revisions
EURm New Old Diff. New Old Diff.
Sales
Finland 57.1 58.5 -2% 57.7 59.1 -2%
Scandinavia 8.6 9.1 -6% 8.6 9.2 -6%
EMEA 10.7 8.4 27% 11.1 8.6 29%
North America 7.9 7.9 0% 8.0 8.0 1%
Asia- Pacific 21.1 20.4 4% 21.9 21.2 4%
Total sales 105.4 104.3 1% 107.4 106.0 1%
Sales growth 3.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6%
EBIT, comparable 8.7 9.2 -5% 9.2 9.5 -2%
Margin, comparable 8.3% 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% 8.9% 0.0%
EBIT, reported 14.7 9.2 61% 9.2 9.5 -2%
Margin, reported 14.0 % 8.8 % 8.6 % 8.9 %
PTP 14.1 9.0 56% 8.9 9.3 -5%
Taxes 2.8 1.8 56% 1.8 1.9 -5%
EPS 1.39 0.89 56% 0.88 0.92 -5%
Source: OP
20192018
Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50
The facts: Marimekko's Q1 results were in line with market forecasts. Sales growth
(+7% YoY) was surprisingly solid as the consensus estimate was +3%. Sales
growth originated almost entirely outside Finland, particularly from wholesale and
royalties in the Asia-Pacific region. Sales in Finland grew less than 1%. Comparable
EBIT grew slightly YoY underpinned by sales growth (EUR 1.2m vs. Q1 2017:
EUR 1.1m). The relative gross margin dropped to 62.8% (65.2%) as the share of
wholesale increased YoY.
Our analysis: Marimekko maintained its full-year guidance: net sales and
comparable operating profit for 2018 are forecast to be at the same level as or
higher than in the previous year. Q1 performance was in line with the guidance. It
should be noted that Q1 is typically the least significant quarter of the year due to
seasonality. In terms of Marimekko’s outlook, the operating environment is
dichotomous. The positive economic performance and especially solid consumer
confidence in Finland support the outlook for Marimekko’s product categories. Yet,
competition is fierce and C2C trade is on the rise, which is curbing growth in the
sector. Moreover, Marimekko’s sales and earnings will face headwinds from
currencies in the short term with the euro gaining strength.
We have raised our dividend projection for next spring to EUR 0.70 per share (from
EUR 0.50) as the sale of the head office reinforces the already strong balance sheet
and reported EBIT for 2018. Marimekko will book a non-recurring taxable capital
gain of roughly EUR 6m on the sale of the head office to a fund managed by
OP Financial Group and remain a lessee in the said premises. The company’s
dividend policy is to pay out at least 50% of EPS as dividends annually.
Conclusion & Action: We reiterate our Neutral recommendation and revise our
DCF-based target price up to EUR 14.50 (prev. EUR 12.70).
Marimekko
Finland | Personal Goods
PERSONAL GOODS Marimekko (Neutral) Q1 18 sales results expected weak
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Niclas Catani
+358 10 252 8780
Neutral
14.15
closing price as of 14/05/2018
14.50
12.70
2.5%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg MMO1V.HE/MMO1V FH
Market capitalisation (EURm) 114
Current N° of shares (m) 8
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 4
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 145.88
Price high/low 12 months 9.56 / 14.70
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.05/17.92/32.86
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 102 105 107
EBITDA (m) 12 18 12
EBITDA margin 11.4% 16.6% 11.1%
EBIT (m) 8 15 9
EBIT margin 8.2% 14.0% 8.6%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 6 11 7
ROCE 22.3% 45.5% 27.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (3) (14) (15)
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.4 -0.4
Debt/EBITDA -0.2 -0.8 -1.2
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 9.5 26.2 32.3
EV/Sales 0.8 1.0 0.9
EV/EBITDA 6.7 5.7 8.3
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 5.7 8.3
EV/EBIT 9.4 6.8 10.8
P/E (adj.) 14.4 10.2 16.1
P/BV 2.7 3.0 2.9
OpFCF yield 12.0% 9.8% 6.0%
Dividend yield 3.5% 4.9% 5.3%
EPS (adj.) 0.70 1.39 0.88
BVPS 3.79 4.68 4.86
DPS 0.50 0.70 0.75
Shareholders
Muotitila Oy 16%; Semerca Investment Ltd 11%; Keskinäinen
työeläkevakuutusyhtiö Varma 5%;
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
MARIMEKKO OMXH (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Technogym
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 36 of 52
Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth
The facts: Technogym should report first quarter sales only today.
Our analysis: Sales should confirm the solid organic growth expected for the year
partly dented by some forex impact mainly in the North American market. Sales
might be different by few millions on a restated basis on both quarters due to the
first time application of the IFRS 15 principle.
Conclusion & Action: Rating and PT confirmed
SALES by Area Q117 Q118e %Ch.
Europe (not Italy) 66.6 71.8 7.8%
MEIA 9.6 9.6 0.0%
APAC 19.4 20.9 7.8%
Italy 12.5 13.6 9.0%
North America 12.4 12.3 -1.5%
LATAM 3.5 3.52 0.0%
TOTAL 124.1 131.8 6.2%
Volumes/Price/Mix 11.2 9.0%
Forex -3.5 -2.8%
Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts
SALES BY Channel Q117 Q118e %Ch.
Field Sales 86.7 86.7 7.4%
Wholesale 25.9 25.9 6.7%
Inside Sales 10.2 10.2 1.6%
Retail 1.3 1.3 -6.7%
TOTAL 124.1 124.1 6.6%
Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts
Technogym
Italy | Personal Goods
PERSONAL GOODS Technogym (Neutral) Target price upgraded to EUR 14.50
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Bonfà
+39 02 4344 4269
Neutral
10.74
closing price as of 14/05/2018
9.50
-11.5%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg TGYM.MI/TGYM IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,148
Current N° of shares (m) 200
Free float 54%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 587
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 7,256.98
Price high/low 12 months 6.18 / 10.91
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.59/22.32/57.02
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 598 643 687
EBITDA (m) 120 136 152
EBITDA margin 20.1% 21.1% 22.1%
EBIT (m) 91 109 125
EBIT margin 15.3% 16.9% 18.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 61 75 87
ROCE 31.6% 34.7% 38.9%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 41 1 (59)
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.0 -0.2
Debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.0 -0.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 28.4 high high
EV/Sales 2.8 3.4 3.1
EV/EBITDA 13.8 15.9 13.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.8 15.9 13.8
EV/EBIT 18.2 19.9 16.8
P/E (adj.) 26.4 28.7 24.6
P/BV 12.0 11.2 8.3
OpFCF yield 3.1% 2.7% 3.8%
Dividend yield 0.6% 0.8% 1.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.31 0.37 0.44
BVPS 0.68 0.96 1.29
DPS 0.07 0.09 0.11
Shareholders
FIF Holding 39%; Pictet Funds 4%; Momentum 3%;
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
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TECHNOGYM Stoxx Personal Goods (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Exprivia
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 37 of 52
Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel
The facts: Q1 2018 results.
Our analysis: Q1 2018 was characterized by the full entry of Italtel into Exprivia’s
consolidation perimeter (line by line in the P&L), as the deal was finalized in the last
days of 2017 and was already included in the December 31 balance sheet (total
debt EUR 223m including EUR 164m NFP of Italtel and EUR 25m cash outlay for
the acquisition). We didn’t have comparable figures for Italtel on a quarterly basis in
2017. The actual results appear rather weak and are below our expectations. At the
underlying level of Exprivia stand-alone, growth decelerated in Q1 but remained in
any case slightly positive, as banking and finance posted +11% Y/Y growth,
Aerospace +7.5% and healthcare finally delivered a positive growth (+3.5%).
EBITDA was slightly lower Y/Y whereas we were expecting an improvement and net
debt increased by EUR 7.5m on a sequential basis.
The first time quarterly release of Italtel was the main focus, and it appears that the
seasonality of its business is very strong, with Q1 characterized by negative
EBITDA. Accordingly, the large gap vs. our guesstimates is not a major concern at
this point, given that in spite of a negative EUR 8m in Q1 Italtel delivered EUR 15m
reported and EUR 20m adjusted EBITDA in the full year 2017. The company also
said these results are in line with the budget. The sequential increase in net debt
could also be due to seasonality. The 15% Y/Y revenue decline was mainly due to
the drop in business with TIM; we have to check whether the increase in the
activities with Open Fiber will be enough to cover the gap.
Exprivia: Q1 2018 results (EUR m)
Q1
2017a Q1 2018e
Q1 2018a Y/Y
Q1 2017a
Q1 2018 e
Q1 2018 a
Q1 2018a
Exprivia ITALTEL Group
Revenues 35.9 37.3 na nm na 100 na 107.1
Turnover 36.6 38.1 37.1 1.3% 90.5 100 76.9 113.1
EBITDA adj 3.03 3.18 2.9 -4.4% -7.9 4.0 -7.2 -4.2
margin 8.3% 8.4% 7.8% -0.5% -8.7% 4.0% -9.4% -3.8%
EBITDA 3.03 3.18 2.9 -4.4% -7.9 5.0 -7.2 -4.2
EBIT 1.87 1.83 1.8 -3.8% -10.2 0.5 -10.8 -9.0
Margin 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% -0.3% -
11.3% 0.5% -14.0% -8.0%
EBT 1.55 nm 1.10 -45.1% -12.30 na -14.30 -13.23
Net Income 0.89 nm nm nm na na na -0.03
NFP 42.0 57.0 64.5 53.6% na 162.0 174.3 238.8
Source: Company data, BANCA AKROS estimates
Outlook. The results were slightly below our expectations at Exprivia and argly
missed at Italtel. We believe in any case that given last year’s trend the latter could
still deliver on an EBITDA better than FY 2017 even on a lower revenue base.
Conclusion & Action: We keep a positive view as we are at the very beginning off
the journey for the new group.
Exprivia
Italy | Software & Computer Services
SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Exprivia (Accumulate) Q118 sales should confirm solid organic growth
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Devita, CFA
+39 02 4344 4031
Accumulate
1.51
closing price as of 14/05/2018
1.80
19.5%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg XPR.MI/XPR IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 78
Current N° of shares (m) 52
Free float 47%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 599
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 567.35
Price high/low 12 months 1.10 / 2.11
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.13/4.01/21.65
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 161 165 171
EBITDA (m) 12 18 19
EBITDA margin 7.5% 11.2% 11.4%
EBIT (m) 7 13 14
EBIT margin 4.0% 7.7% 8.0%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (0) 6 7
ROCE 3.6% 6.7% 11.5%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 34 34 27
Net Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.3
Debt/EBITDA 2.8 1.9 1.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 3.1 10.2 12.9
EV/Sales 0.8 0.8 0.7
EV/EBITDA 10.6 7.0 6.2
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 10.6 7.0 6.2
EV/EBIT 19.8 10.2 8.7
P/E (adj.) nm 13.1 11.3
P/BV 1.0 1.0 0.9
OpFCF yield 4.8% -0.4% 11.0%
Dividend yield 0.0% nm 1.9%
EPS (adj.) (0.00) 0.12 0.13
BVPS 1.46 1.57 1.68
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.03
Shareholders
Abaco Spa 47%; Own Shares 7%;
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
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EXPRIVIA FTSE Italy SmallCaps (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Reply
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 38 of 52
Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected
The facts: Preview of Q1 2018 results (publication today).
Our analysis: we expect another quarter of double-digit growth, with stable Y/Y
EBITDA margin. The group has launched four new start-ups in Q1 alone in Italy,
which should drive top-line to +10% also in the next few quarters. We expect strong
growth also in Germany, based on the exit speed of Q4 and the trend throughout
last year. In the UK, the growth rate is more erratic and we observed a significant
slow-down in the final part of 2017. We expect net cash to have increased by a
dozen million EUROS in the last three months. The acquisition of the US player
Valorem does not affect Q1 as it was announced on April 11.
Reply Q1 2018 preview (EUR m)
Q1 17a Q4 2017a Q1 18e Y/Y Q/Q
Revenues 208 233 232 11.3% -0.5%
Italy 150 166 165 9.9% -0.6%
Germany* 36.6 45.7 44.0 20.2% -3.7%
UK 24.9 29.0 26.5 6.4% -8.6%
Other/adj -3.3 -7.6 -3.5 6.2% -53.9%
EBITDA 28.1 33.4 31.3 11.6% -6.4%
mg 13.5% 14.3% 13.5% 0.0% -0.9%
EBIT 25.2 32.2 27.8 10.3% -13.6%
EBT 25.3 31.6 27.5 8.5% -13.0%
Net debt/(cash) -80.6 -57.0 -70.0 -13.2% 22.8%
Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates
Outlook. Our estimates for FY 2018 point to around 9% revenue growth and 0.6pp
margin increase Y/Y. We are not including yet the impact of Valorem acquisition in
the US, for which we have very few information (expected size of USD 50m in
revenues, and acquisition price in a similar range).
Conclusion & Action: we expect a solid release, in line with the past few quarters.
Reply
Italy | Software & Computer Services
SOFTWARE & COMPUTER SERVICES Reply (Neutral) Q1 2018 Post: negative EBITDA contribution from Italtel
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Devita, CFA
+39 02 4344 4031
Neutral
54.50
closing price as of 14/05/2018
50.30
-7.7%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg REY.MI/REY IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,039
Current N° of shares (m) 37
Free float 45%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 64
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,710.31
Price high/low 12 months 39.75 / 55.00
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 13.07/11.27/34.57
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 884 963 1,010
EBITDA (m) 123 140 146
EBITDA margin 13.9% 14.5% 14.5%
EBIT (m) 111 126 132
EBIT margin 12.5% 13.1% 13.1%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 78 87 92
ROCE 29.9% 31.6% 30.8%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (57) (112) (167)
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.8 -1.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 41.4 139.6 146.3
EV/Sales 1.9 2.0 1.8
EV/EBITDA 13.4 13.7 12.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 13.4 13.7 12.7
EV/EBIT 14.9 15.1 14.0
P/E (adj.) 22.2 23.5 22.1
P/BV 4.3 4.3 3.7
OpFCF yield 2.9% 3.0% 3.1%
Dividend yield 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
EPS (adj.) 2.08 2.32 2.47
BVPS 10.73 12.78 14.90
DPS 0.35 0.35 0.35
Shareholders
Rizzante Mario 45%; Shareholder value mgmt AG 4%;
Lodigiani Riccardo 1.90%; JP Morgan 2.00%; Toqueville
1.20%;
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
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REPLY FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
ENAV
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 39 of 52
Steady revenues but better margins
The facts: ENAV published its first quarter results yesterday before market closing.
The company held a conference call in the evening.
Our analysis: the company managed to increase its margins notwithstanding
slightly lower revenues. Particularly external costs declined by 4.9% y/y to EUR
34.4m.
Q1 17 Q1 18 Y/Y% Q1 18e
Total revenues 176.4 175.5 -0.5% 176.2
o/w balance 6.3 -4.0
-3.2
EBITDA 28.7 30.0 4.3% 28.8
margin 16.3% 17.1%
16.3%
EBIT -2.9 -1.7 nm -3.4
margin -1.7% -1.0%
-1.9%
PBT -3.1 -3.0 nm -4.6
Net Profit -4.2 -4.4 nm -5.1
Guidance for 2018 confirmed - For 2018 the company confirmed the guidance
communicated to the market in March with net revenue growth expected to be flat to
low-single digit with an EBITDA margin of around 32%, in-line with 2017. ENAV
also confirmed its guidance on 2019 dividend which is expected to increase by 4%
over the dividend of 2018 (2018 dividend is EUR 0.1864/sh).
Conclusion & Action: the results were sound and the increase in margins was
sizeable; the traffic has been very good since the beginning of the year with service
units up 7.8% y/y. We increased our estimates to take into account the strong traffic
performance. We move our target price from EUR 4.8/sh to EUR 5.0/sh and confirm
our Accumulate recommendation on the stock.
ENAV
Italy | Support Services
SUPPORT SERVICES ENAV (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: growth as usual expected
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Francesco Sala
+39 02 4344 4240
Accumulate
4.52
closing price as of 14/05/2018
5.00
4.80
10.6%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ENAV.MI/ENAV IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,449
Current N° of shares (m) 542
Free float 47%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 759
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,110.19
Price high/low 12 months 3.63 / 4.70
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -0.09/8.60/16.49
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 882 900 901
EBITDA (m) 284 298 300
EBITDA margin 32.2% 33.1% 33.3%
EBIT (m) 147 165 167
EBIT margin 16.6% 18.4% 18.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 101 115 116
ROCE 8.4% 9.5% 9.5%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 117 104 107
Net Debt/Equity 0.1 0.1 0.1
Debt/EBITDA 0.4 0.3 0.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 96.8 110.3 120.0
EV/Sales 2.9 2.8 2.8
EV/EBITDA 9.0 8.6 8.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.0 8.6 8.5
EV/EBIT 17.5 15.4 15.3
P/E (adj.) 24.1 21.3 21.1
P/BV 2.2 2.1 2.1
OpFCF yield 4.0% 4.8% 4.3%
Dividend yield 4.1% 4.3% 4.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.19 0.21 0.21
BVPS 2.08 2.10 2.12
DPS 0.19 0.19 0.20
Shareholders
Mef 53%;
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
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ENAV FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Openjobmetis
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 40 of 52
Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market
The facts: Q1 18 results are due out today..
Our analysis: we expect further good sales growth sustained by the continuous
good trend of the reference market.
Profitability should continue to benefit from the operating leverage.
The following table shows our sales and profitability forecast.
(EUR m) Q1 17a Q1 18e %Chg.
Sales 130.1 139.2 7.0%
EBITDA 4.1 4.6 12.0%
EBIT margin 3.2% 3.3%
Conclusion & Action: we confirm our Accumulate recommendation, while we
expect to verify our estimates with the details from the today conference call at 3:00
pm CET).
Openjobmetis
Italy | Support Services
SUPPORT SERVICES Openjobmetis (Accumulate) Steady revenues but better margins
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Paola Saglietti
+39 02 4344 4287
Accumulate
11.50
closing price as of 14/05/2018
15.00
30.4%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg OJM.MI/OJM IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 158
Current N° of shares (m) 14
Free float 50%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 32
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 468.49
Price high/low 12 months 9.96 / 14.00
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 1.59/-9.87/11.65
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 584 625 651
EBITDA (m) 22 24 26
EBITDA margin 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%
EBIT (m) 19 21 23
EBIT margin 3.3% 3.4% 3.5%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 12 14 15
ROCE 6.8% 7.0% 7.4%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 35 29 16
Net Debt/Equity 0.4 0.3 0.1
Debt/EBITDA 1.6 1.2 0.6
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 25.5 28.4 30.4
EV/Sales 0.4 0.3 0.3
EV/EBITDA 9.7 7.8 6.8
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 9.7 7.8 6.8
EV/EBIT 11.2 8.9 7.6
P/E (adj.) 14.4 11.5 10.6
P/BV 2.0 1.5 1.3
OpFCF yield 3.3% 6.1% 10.1%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) 0.89 1.00 1.09
BVPS 6.44 7.44 8.53
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
Rasizza Rosario 8%; Omniafin 29%; Questio Capital SGR
14%;
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
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OPENJOBMETIS FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Acotel
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 41 of 52
Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist
The facts: Preview of Q1 2018 results (publication today).
Our analysis: We expect another quarter of revenue decline and negative EBITDA,
as the fall in the traditional activities (Interactive) is not compensated by the
expected growth in the NET and Bucksense divisions. We expect that all the SBUs
remain loss-making in the quarter at the operating level. The positive net income in
Q1 2017 reflected the settlement with Intesa on the Noverca litigation, which
resulted into EUR 5.1m debt waiver. According to the filing to Consob, the net cash
position was EUR 3.0m at the end of March 2018, implying EUR 1.8m cash burn in
Q1.
Acotel Q1 2018 Preview (EUR m)
Q1
2018e Q1
2017a Y/Y
Q4 2017a
Q/Q
Interactive 1.10 2.77 -60.3% 1.10 -0.1%
NET 0.85 0.52 64.4% 0.77 11.1%
Bucksense/adj 1.80 1.61 12% 1.44 25%
Net sales 3.75 4.90 -23.4% 3.30 13.6%
Turnover 4.05 5.18 -21.8% 3.87 4.8%
EBITDA -1.50 -2.12 -29.1% -2.06 -27.1% Margin -37.0% -40.9% +3.9pp -53.2% +16.2pp
EBIT -1.90 -2.55 -25.5% -2.42 -21.6% Net income (Loss) -1.80 2.85 nm -5.33 -66.2% Net debt (Cash) -3.00 -11.40 -73.7% -4.80 -37.5%
Source: Company data, Banca Akros estimates
Outlook. The company had already warned about the going concern assumptions
given the ongoing losses and cash burn in spite of a still positive cash position. ACO
said in the press release that the main shareholders (controlling a 57% stake) are
ready to inject up to EUR 5m as their pro-quota share of a potential capital increase.
Conclusion & Action: We keep a negative view. The company burns cash and
needs new capital.
Acotel
Italy | Telecommunications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Acotel (Reduce) Q1 PW: expected good sales growth thanks to the positive trend of the reference market
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Devita, CFA
+39 02 4344 4031
Reduce
4.68
closing price as of 14/05/2018
2.90
-38.0%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ACO.MI/ACO IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 20
Current N° of shares (m) 4
Free float 35%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 26
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 271.88
Price high/low 12 months 2.65 / 6.26
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 11.16/33.33/-22.00
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 19 20 22
EBITDA (m) (7) (4) (2)
EBITDA margin nm nm nm
EBIT (m) (9) (7) (3)
EBIT margin nm nm nm
Net Profit (adj.)(m) (4) (3) (1)
ROCE -434.5% -276.8% -271.9%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (5) (0) 1
Net Debt/Equity -1.7 0.1 -0.2
Debt/EBITDA 0.7 0.0 -0.3
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) (189.6) 5.3 2.9
EV/Sales 0.9 1.1 1.1
EV/EBITDA nm nm nm
EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm nm nm
EV/EBIT nm nm nm
P/E (adj.) nm nm nm
P/BV 6.5 nm nm
OpFCF yield -20.3% -24.5% -4.3%
Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
EPS (adj.) (1.08) (0.75) (0.25)
BVPS 0.67 (0.40) (0.82)
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders
Clama 41%; Claudio Carnevale 17%; Ellepif Ltd 0.00%;
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
ACOTEL FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Vodafone
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 42 of 52
YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance
The facts: Publication of Year to March 2018 results.
Our analysis: Solid results in terms of service revenues, EBITDA and Free Cash
Flow. Service revenues improved on a sequential basis, with the main countries
(excluding Spain) delivering in line or above consensus expectations (India also
improving albeit still above 20% Y/Y decline).
Vodafone service revenue trend
Q1 17/18 Q2 17/18 Q3 17/18 Q4 17/18css Q4 17/18a
Germany 0.6% 1.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.8%
Italy 3.2% 1.5% -0.4% -0.5% 0.7%
Spain 1.6% 3.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0%
UK -2.7% -3.0% -4.8% -3.9% -3.4%
Vodacom 5.6% 3.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.8%
Turkey 13.9% 14.7% 13.2% 12.9% 14.3%
Group 2.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4%
India -13.9% -17.8% -23.1% -23.0% -21.2%
Source: Company data, ESN estimates
EBITDA was in line with our expectations but better than consensus (EUR
14.63bn) and was up by 11.8% on organic basis beating the revised target of
+10%. FCF easily surpassed the target of EUR 5bn and consensus (EUR
5.2bn), with capex at EUR 7.32bn (+EUR 354m Y/Y). Net debt in line with
expectations at EUR 31.5bn. DPS increased to EUR 15.07c (final 10.23c) vs.
our exp and consensus at 15.0c.
Vodafone FY 2017/18 results (EUR m)
YTM 2017 YTM 2018e YTM 2018a Y/Y (org)
Revenues 47,631 46,117 46,571 -2.2% EBITDA reported 14,149 14,786 14,737 +4.2% (+11.8%)
Margin 29.7% 32.1% 31.6% +1.9pp adj operating profit 4,134 5,388 5,216 +26.2% (+49.0%)
FCF* 4,056 5,215 5,417 +33.6%
Source: Company data, ESN estimates (*) excluding spectrum
Outlook YTM 2019. Organic adjusted EBITDA: underlying growth in the
range of +1/5%, implying EUR 14.15/14.65bn (IAS18). This range excludes
the impact of UK handset financing in both years, the significant benefit in
the prior year from regulatory settlements in the UK and a legal settlement
in Germany. FCF pre-spectrum: > EUR 5.2bn including a drag of c.EUR
0.2bn from the Gigabit Investment Plan and a combined impact of EUR
0.2bn from India recharges and the sale of Qatar. Capex/sales: ‘mid-
(excluding the Gigabit Investment Plan in Germany).
Conclusion & Action: solid results and supportive guidance of 1/5% increase in
EBITDA and above EUR 5,2bn FCF.
Vodafone
United Kingdom | Telecommunications
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Vodafone (Accumulate) Q1 2018 Pre: weak trends to persist
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Devita, CFA
+39 02 4344 4031
Accumulate
207.20
closing price as of 14/05/2018
240.00
15.8%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: GBp
Share price: GBp
Reuters/Bloomberg VOD.L/VOD LN
Market capitalisation (GBPm) 54,968
Current N° of shares (m) 26,529
Free float 100%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 55,090
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 131,401.74
Price high/low 12 months 2.18 / 2.70
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 0.17/3.73/-1.82
Key financials (EUR) 03/17 03/18e 03/19e
Sales (m) 47,631 46,117 45,154
EBITDA (m) 14,149 14,786 14,776
EBITDA margin 29.7% 32.1% 32.7%
EBIT (m) 3,970 5,028 4,484
EBIT margin 8.3% 10.9% 9.9%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 2,249 2,942 2,630
ROCE 4.0% 5.3% 4.3%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 31,169 31,072 30,966
Net Debt/Equity 0.4 0.4 0.4
Debt/EBITDA 2.2 2.1 2.1
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) high 29.6 18.0
EV/Sales 2.1 2.0 2.1
EV/EBITDA 6.9 6.2 6.5
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.7 6.0 6.5
EV/EBIT 24.7 18.4 21.4
P/E (adj.) 28.7 20.0 23.7
P/BV 0.9 0.8 0.9
OpFCF yield -18.4% 8.1% 7.0%
Dividend yield 6.3% 6.4% 6.5%
EPS (adj.) 0.08 0.11 0.10
BVPS 2.72 2.66 2.61
DPS 0.15 0.15 0.15
Shareholders
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
VODAFONE Stoxx Telecommunications (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Gamenet
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 43 of 52
Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout
The facts: Gamenet should report Q1-18e results today.
Our analysis: Gamenet results despite soft sales due to the higher PREU and
lower AWP machine for the industry streamlining agreed with the State, should
however report strong EBITDA growth thanks to efficiencies, acquisition of AWP
street operators and above all a lower payout than in Q1’17 (from app. 87% to app.
80%).
Gamenet Quarterly Results
Wagers (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.
AWPs 655 668 2%
VLTs 811 811 0%
Betting&online 195 191 -2%
Retail&Street OP. 117 119 2%
TOTAL 1778 1790 1%
Revenue (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.
AWPs 79 70 -11%
VLTs 56 54 -4%
Betting&online 15 25 63%
Retail&Street OP. 9 9 0%
TOTAL 159 158 -1%
P&L (Eurm) Q117 Q118e % Ch.
Tot. Sales 158.8 158.0 -1%
EBITDA 17.4 22.3 28%
% sales 11.0% 14.1%
D&A (10.5)
Prov./Non-Rec. (1.5)
EBIT na 10.3
EBIT margin 7%
Fin. Cost (3.9)
Extraordinary 0.0
Pre-tax profit na 6.4
Taxes (1.8)
Tax rate 28%
Net profit na 4.6
NFP 177.8 170.3
Source: Company Data, Banca Akros forecasts;
Conclusion & Action: Rating and PT confirmed
Gamenet
Italy | Travel & Leisure
TRAVEL & LEISURE Gamenet (Buy) YTM 2018 results: Good results and supportive guidance
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Andrea Bonfà
+39 02 4344 4269
Buy
8.93
closing price as of 14/05/2018
12.00
34.4%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg GAME.MI/GAME IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 268
Current N° of shares (m) 30
Free float 35%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 63
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 246.51
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -6.78/7.59/
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 619 576 581
EBITDA (m) 82 85 90
EBITDA margin 13.3% 14.8% 15.5%
EBIT (m) 20 37 42
EBIT margin 3.2% 6.4% 7.2%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 13 15 19
ROCE 4.0% 13.3% 18.2%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 153 152 128
Net Debt/Equity 2.1 2.2 1.8
Debt/EBITDA 1.9 1.8 1.4
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 4.9 5.4 5.8
EV/Sales 0.6 0.8 0.7
EV/EBITDA 4.9 5.1 4.6
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 4.9 5.1 4.6
EV/EBIT 20.0 11.7 9.8
P/E (adj.) 17.6 17.4 14.1
P/BV 3.6 4.2 4.2
OpFCF yield 7.7% 11.6% 20.3%
Dividend yield 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%
EPS (adj.) 0.45 0.51 0.63
BVPS 2.20 2.11 2.15
DPS 0.60 0.60 0.60
Shareholders
Trilantic Capital Partners 45%; Intralot Italia Investments 20%;
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
GAMENET FTSE Italy STAR (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Trigano
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 44 of 52
Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts
The facts: H1 2018 results, factoring in Adria, beat our estimates. uEBIT came out
at EUR104m vs. EUR52.5m (+52% organic) and net income of EUR72.1m vs.
EUR56.6m (+85.6% organic).
Our analysis: While we were expecting a jump in results, the good surprise came
from Adria. This group generated an EBIT margin of 13%, i.e. 500bp more than
Trigano. Attractive personnel costs and a particularly effective production tool can
explain this economic performance which should improve even further. Purchasing
synergies have been generated that are profitable to both Adria (for chassis) and
Trigano (Slovenian suppliers). As Trigano is reaching full production capacity on its
historical scope for the production of VAN (rapid growth), management is envisaging
setting up a production site for VAN in Slovenia (Adria has strong expertise in this
market niche). However, Adria’s commercial distribution via service providers that
are different to those for Trigano means that not all the commercial synergies can
be extracted, a situation that is under negotiation.
Regarding other points, the challenge for Trigano lies in the momentum of its new
products, as the group no longer benefits from the effect of rebuilding inventories by
dealers. We are also factoring in a greater negative currency effect but alongside a
corporate tax rate for Adria of only 15%. We have not changed our revenues
estimate, but revise up that for margins in order to better integrate the ST and LT
effects of Adria on the accounts. The EBIT margin is set to increase to 9.9% in 2018
vs 9.4% and that for 2020 be 11.2% vs 10.5%.
Conclusion & Action: In this context and while maintaining the same valuation
multiples (EV/Sales of 0.8x; EV/EBITDA 10x; EV/EBIT 12x and P/E 16x), our
prospective value in 2020 increases to EUR207.2 vs EUR179.3 (+15.6%), i.e., a
present value of EUR178.6 vs EUR154.9. We adopt a Buy recommendation (vs.
Neutral).
Trigano
France | Travel & Leisure
TRAVEL & LEISURE Trigano (Buy) Q1-18 results should be helped by a better payout
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Francis Prêtre
+33 4 78 92 02 30
Buy
151.30
closing price as of 14/05/2018
178.63
154.92
18.1%Upside/Downside Potential
from Target Price: EUR
from Neutral
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg TRIA.PA/TRI FP
Market capitalisation (EURm) 2,926
Current N° of shares (m) 19
Free float 45%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 21
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 5,046.58
Price high/low 12 months 97.18 / 162.50
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) -1.69/-0.66/53.62
Key financials (EUR) 08/17 08/18e 08/19e
Sales (m) 1,707 2,341 2,567
EBITDA (m) 186 249 298
EBITDA margin 10.9% 10.6% 11.6%
EBIT (m) 166 232 278
EBIT margin 9.8% 9.9% 10.8%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 127 173 226
ROCE 23.7% 31.4% 34.9%
Net debt/(cash) (m) (83) (150) (272)
Net Debt/Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
Debt/EBITDA -0.4 -0.6 -0.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 14.5 47.0 62.2
EV/Sales 1.2 1.2 1.0
EV/EBITDA 11.0 11.2 8.9
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.2 11.2 8.9
EV/EBIT 12.3 12.0 9.5
P/E (adj.) 16.6 16.8 12.8
P/BV 3.6 3.9 3.1
OpFCF yield 3.5% 3.1% 5.0%
Dividend yield 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%
EPS (adj.) 6.63 9.02 11.80
BVPS 30.60 38.36 48.78
DPS 1.20 1.30 1.50
Shareholders
Fran¿ois Feuillet 53%; Trigano 1.90%; Salari¿s 0.10%;
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18
vvdsvdvsdy
TRIGANO CAC Small & Mid 190 (Rebased)
Source: Factset
EDP
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 45 of 52
Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP
The facts: In a statement EDP informed the market that the Executive Board of
Directors already initiated the relevant internal procedures for the purposes of
complying with the obligations it is legally bound to and shall issue its opinion in due
course regarding the other terms of the offer which will be brought to the Executive
Board of Directors of EDP’s attention through the release by the offeror of the draft
prospectus and launch announcement, which will namely include relevant detail
regarding the Industrial Plan.
Notwithstanding, the Executive Board of Directors considers that the price offered
does not adequately reflect the value of EDP and that the implied offer premium is
low considering what is customary for European utilities where the offeror has
acquired control.
Our analysis: We recall that China Three Gorges the largest shareholder with
23.3% of EDP launched a general and voluntary takeover offer for the shares
issued by EDP.
The price offered is EUR 3.26 per share This represents a premium of 4.8% over
Friday’s closing price (EUR 3.11) and approximately 10.8% over the volume-
weighted average price of the shares during the last six months (EUR 2.94).
Conclusion & Action: This is a first reaction of EDP board to the offer announced
last Friday.
EDP
Portugal | Utilities
UTILITIES EDP (Accumulate) Sharp increase in H1-18 results; upward revision to forecasts
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Helena Barbosa
+351 21 389 6831
Accumulate
3.40
closing price as of 14/05/2018
3.15
-7.4%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg EDP.LS/EDP PL
Market capitalisation (EURm) 12,432
Current N° of shares (m) 3,657
Free float 36%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 6,849
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 133,701.88
Price high/low 12 months 2.64 / 3.40
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 7.05/23.68/3.03
Key financials (EUR) 12/17 12/18e 12/19e
Sales (m) 14,741 14,815 14,889
EBITDA (m) 4,109 3,472 3,594
EBITDA margin 27.9% 23.4% 24.1%
EBIT (m) 2,706 2,048 2,145
EBIT margin 18.4% 13.8% 14.4%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 1,343 791 863
ROCE 6.4% 4.8% 5.0%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 14,165 14,142 14,064
Net Debt/Equity 1.0 1.0 1.0
Debt/EBITDA 3.4 4.1 3.9
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.3 5.7 5.9
EV/Sales 1.8 1.9 1.9
EV/EBITDA 6.3 8.0 7.7
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 6.3 8.0 7.7
EV/EBIT 9.6 13.6 12.9
P/E (adj.) 7.9 15.7 14.4
P/BV 1.0 1.2 1.2
OpFCF yield 19.7% 8.7% 9.2%
Dividend yield 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
EPS (adj.) 0.37 0.22 0.24
BVPS 2.75 2.78 2.82
DPS 0.19 0.19 0.19
Shareholders
China Three Gorges 23%; CNIC Co 5%; Capital Group
Companies 12%; Oppidum 7%; BlackRock 5%; Mubadala
(Abu Dhabi) 4%; BCP Group 2%; Qatar Investment 2%;
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.30
3.40
3.50
abr 17 mai 17 jun 17 jul 17 ago 17 set 17 out 17 nov 17 dez 17 jan 18 fev 18 mar 18 abr 18 mai 18
vvdsvdvsdy
EDP Stoxx Utilities (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Erg
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report Page 46 of 52
More wind and capacity off-set decreasing incentives
The facts: ERG has just unveiled its Q1 18 results.
Our analysis: ERG posted declining figures YoY:
ERG: Q1-18 results
The growth in hydroelectric and wind power output referring to the same perimeter
and new capacity in solar power and wind allowed to offset both the poorer price
and incentive scenario and the reduction in incentivised wind power capacity.
Good performance also for the thermoelectric power thanks to Energy Management
business, benefiting from higher value of Energy Efficiency Certificates.
2018 Outlook, more Capex: The company is confirming the EBITDA guidance
figure of Euro 475m for this year and is predicting higher investment (from 450m to
500m) increasing consequently the net debt figure from Euro 1,260m to
approximately Euro 1,300m after the dividend.
Regular + Special Dividends due to be distributed on May 21th (ex-date) for a total
of EUR 172m (regular div 75c/sh + 40c/sh special div).
Conclusion & Action: While the Strategic Plan execution is the real driver of the
stock, the first quarter results are not.
We look positively to the revised timing of investments and maintain our
positive stance on the stock. .
EURm Q1 2016A Q1 2017A Q1 2018A YoY Chg.
Revenues 295 300 284 -5.3%
EBITDA 163 151 162 7.3%
Wind 117 104 107 2.9%
Hydro 21 35 35 0.0%
Thermo 27 14 18 28.6%
Corporate -2 -2 -2 -
EBIT 99 90 94 4.4%
PBT 82 84 71 -15.5%
Net Profit adj 57 54 56 3.7%
Erg
Italy | Utilities
UTILITIES Erg (Accumulate) Announcement of EDP’s Board regarding the offer over EDP
Analyser 15 May 2018
Analyst(s)
Francesco Previtera
+39 02 4344 4033
Accumulate
20.60
closing price as of 14/05/2018
20.00
-2.9%Upside/Downside Potential
Target Price unchanged
Recommendation unchanged
Target price: EUR
Share price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg ERG.MI/ERG IM
Market capitalisation (EURm) 3,097
Current N° of shares (m) 150
Free float 36%
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 274
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 12,497.71
Price high/low 12 months 11.79 / 20.60
Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 9.63/30.71/73.69
Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e
Sales (m) 1,042 1,079 1,113
EBITDA (m) 453 465 458
EBITDA margin 43.5% 43.1% 41.2%
EBIT (m) 200 205 198
EBIT margin 19.2% 19.0% 17.8%
Net Profit (adj.)(m) 123 123 113
ROCE 5.0% 4.8% 4.7%
Net debt/(cash) (m) 1,557 1,414 1,131
Net Debt/Equity 0.9 0.8 0.6
Debt/EBITDA 3.4 3.0 2.5
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin. int) 5.4 6.7 7.2
EV/Sales 3.1 3.5 3.8
EV/EBITDA 7.2 8.0 9.2
EV/EBITDA (adj.) 7.2 8.0 9.2
EV/EBIT 16.3 18.2 21.3
P/E (adj.) 12.5 18.8 27.3
P/BV 0.9 1.3 1.7
OpFCF yield 18.6% 9.2% 11.4%
Dividend yield 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
EPS (adj.) 0.81 0.82 0.75
BVPS 11.50 11.82 12.08
DPS 0.50 0.50 0.50
Shareholders
Own shares 1.00%; Unicredit 4%;
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
apr 17 mag 17 giu 17 lug 17 ago 17 set 17 ott 17 nov 17 dic 17 gen 18 feb 18 mar 18 apr 18 mag 18
vvdsvdvsdy
ERG FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased)
Source: Factset
Page 47 of 52
European Coverage of the Members of ESN
A ero space & D efense M em(*) Bper BAK Kemira OPG Campari BAK
Airbus Se CIC Bpi CBI Kws Saat EQB Coca Cola Hbc Ag IBG
Dassault Aviation CIC Caixabank GVC Lanxess EQB Corbion NIBC
Latecoere CIC Commerzbank EQB Linde EQB Danone CIC
Leonardo BAK Credem BAK Siegfried Holding Ag EQB Ebro Foods GVC
Lisi CIC Credit Agrico le Sa CIC Symrise Ag EQB Enervit BAK
M tu Aero Engines EQB Creval BAK Tikkurila OPG Fleury M ichon CIC
Ohb Se EQB Deutsche Bank EQBElectro nic & Electrical
EquipmentM em(*) Forfarmers NIBC
Rheinmetall EQB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank EQB Euromicron Ag EQB Heineken NIBC
Safran CIC Eurobank IBG Neways Electronics NIBC Hkscan OPG
Thales CIC Intesa Sanpaolo BAK Pkc Group OPG La Doria BAK
A lternat ive Energy M em(*) Liberbank GVC Rexel CIC Lanson-Bcc CIC
Daldrup & Soehne EQB M ediobanca BAK Vaisala OPG Laurent Perrier CIC
Siemens Gamesa Re GVC M erkur Bank EQB Viscom EQB Ldc CIC
Sif Group NIBC National Bank Of Greece IBG F inancial Services M em(*) Lucas Bols NIBC
Solaria GVC Natixis CIC Amundi CIC M assimo Zanetti BAK
A uto mo biles & P arts M em(*) Nordea OPG Anima BAK Naturex CIC
Bittium Corporation OPG Piraeus Bank IBG Athex Group IBG Olvi OPG
Bmw EQB Poste Italiane BAK Azimut BAK Orsero BAK
Brembo BAK Procredit Holding EQB Banca Farmafactoring BAK Pernod Ricard CIC
Continental EQB Rothschild & Co CIC Banca Generali BAK Raisio OPG
Daimler Ag EQB Societe Generale CIC Banca Ifis BAK Refresco Group NIBC
Elringklinger EQB Ubi Banca BAK Banca Sistema BAK Remy Cointreau CIC
Ferrari BAK Unicredit BAK Bb Biotech EQB Suedzucker EQB
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles BAK B asic R eso urces M em(*) Bolsas Y M ercados Espanoles Sa GVC Takeaway.Com NIBC
Hella Gmbh & Co. Kgaa EQB Acerinox GVC Capman OPG Telepizza GVC
Indelb BAK Altri CBI Cir BAK Vapiano EQB
Kamux OPG Arcelormittal GVC Comdirect EQB Vidrala GVC
Landi Renzo BAK Corticeira Amorim CBI Corestate Capital Holding S.A. EQB Vilmorin CIC
Leoni EQB Ence GVC Corp. Financiera Alba GVC Viscofan GVC
Nokian Tyres OPG Europac GVC Digital M agics BAK Vranken Pommery M onopole CIC
Norma Group EQB M etka IBG Dobank BAK Wessanen NIBC
Piaggio BAK M etsä Board OPG D ws EQB F o o d & D rug R etailers M em(*)
Pwo EQB M ytilineos IBG Eq OPG Ahold Delhaize NIBC
Schaeff ler EQB Outokumpu OPG Eurazeo CIC Carrefour CIC
Sogefi BAK Ramada CBI Eyemaxx Real Estate EQB Casino Guichard-Perrachon CIC
Stabilus EQB Semapa CBI Ferratum EQB Ceconomy Ag EQB
Stern Groep NIBC Ssab OPG Ffp CIC Dia GVC
Volkswagen EQB Stora Enso OPG Finecobank BAK Jeronimo M artins CBI
B anks M em(*) Surteco EQB Grenke EQB Kesko OPG
Aareal Bank EQB The Navigator Company CBI Hypoport Ag EQB M arr BAK
Aktia OPG Tubacex GVC M lp EQB M etro Ag EQB
Alpha Bank IBG Upm-Kymmene OPG Ovb Holding Ag EQB Sligro NIBC
Banca Carige BAK C hemicals M em(*) Patrizia EQB Sonae CBI
Banca M ps BAK Air Liquide CIC Rallye CIC
Banco Sabadell GVC Arkema CIC Tip Tamburi Investment Partners BAK
Banco Santander GVC Avantium NIBC Unipol Gruppo Finanziario BAK
Bankia GVC Brenntag EQB Wendel CIC
Bankinter GVC Fuchs Petro lub EQB F o o d & B everage M em(*)
Bbva GVC Holland Colours NIBC Acomo NIBC
Bcp CBI Imcd NIBC Atria OPG
ESN Analyser
Page 48 of 52
General Industria ls M em(*) Orio la-Kd OPG Talgo GVC Salini Impregilo BAK
2G Energy EQB Orion OPG Technotrans EQB Sias BAK
Aalberts NIBC Orpea CIC Valmet OPG Sonae Industria CBI
Accell Group NIBC Pihlajalinna OPG Wacker Neuson Se EQB Srv OPG
Ahlstrom OPG Recordati BAK Wärtsilä OPG Tarkett CIC
Arcadis NIBC Silmaasema OPG Zardoya Otis GVC Thermador Groupe CIC
Aspo OPG Terveystalo OPG Industria l T ranspo rtat io n M em(*) Titan Cement IBG
Cembre BAK H o useho ld Go o ds M em(*) Bollore CIC Trevi BAK
Huhtamäki OPG De Longhi BAK Ctt CBI Uponor OPG
Kendrion NIBC Elica BAK Logwin EQB Vicat CIC
Nedap NIBC Fila BAK Insurance M em(*) Vinci CIC
Pöyry OPG M aisons Du M onde CIC Allianz EQB Volkerwessels NIBC
Prelios BAK Philips Lighting NIBC Axa CIC Yit OPG
Saf-Holland EQB Industria l Engineering M em(*) Banca M edio lanum BAK M edia M em(*)
Serge Ferrari Group CIC Accsys Technologies NIBC Catto lica Assicurazioni BAK Alma M edia OPG
Tkh Group NIBC Aixtron EQB Generali BAK Arnoldo M ondadori Editore BAK
General R etailers M em(*) Alstom CIC Hannover Re EQB Atresmedia GVC
Beter Bed Holding NIBC Ansaldo Sts BAK M apfre Sa GVC Axel Springer EQB
Elumeo Se EQB Biesse BAK M unich Re EQB Brill NIBC
Fielmann EQB Caf GVC Sampo OPG Cairo Communication BAK
Fnac Darty CIC Cargotec Corp OPG Talanx Group EQB Cofina CBI
Folli Fo llie Group IBG Carraro BAK Unipolsai BAK Cts Eventim EQB
Fourlis Holdings IBG Cnh Industrial BAKM aterials, C o nstruct io n &
InfrastructureM em(*) Digital Bros BAK
Grandvision NIBC Danieli BAK Abertis GVC Gedi Gruppo Editoriale BAK
Hornbach Holding EQB Datalogic BAK Acs GVC Gl Events CIC
Inditex GVC Deutz Ag EQB Aena GVC Impresa CBI
Jumbo IBG Duerr EQB Aeroports De Paris CIC Io l BAK
Ovs BAK Emak BAK Astaldi BAK Ipsos CIC
Rapala OPG Envipco NIBC Atlantia BAK Jcdecaux CIC
Stockmann OPG Exel Composites OPG Boskalis Westminster NIBC Lagardere CIC
Takkt Ag EQB Fincantieri BAK Buzzi Unicem BAK M 6-M etropole Television CIC
Tokmanni OPG Gea Group EQB Caverion OPG M ediaset BAK
Unieuro BAK Gesco EQB Cramo OPG M ediaset Espana GVC
Windeln.De EQB Heidelberger Druck EQB Eiffage CIC Notorious Pictures BAK
Yoox Net-A-Porter BAK Ima BAK Ellaktor IBG Nrj Group CIC
Zalando EQB Indus Holding Ag EQB Eltel OPG Publicis CIC
H ealthcare M em(*) Interpump BAK Ezentis GVC Rcs M ediagroup BAK
4Sc EQB Koenig & Bauer EQB Fcc GVC Relx NIBC
Abivax NIBC Kone OPG Ferrovial GVC Rtl Group EQB
Advicenne NIBC Konecranes OPG Heidelberg Cement Ag CIC Sanoma OPG
Amplifon BAK Krones Ag EQB Heijmans NIBC Solocal Group CIC
Bayer EQB M anitou CIC Imerys CIC Spir Communication CIC
Biotest EQB M anz Ag EQB Lafargeholcim CIC Syzygy Ag EQB
Diasorin BAK M ax Automation Ag EQB Lehto OPG Teleperformance CIC
El.En. BAK M etso Corporation OPG Lemminkäinen OPG Tf1 CIC
Epigenomics Ag EQB Outotec OPG M aire Tecnimont BAK Ubisoft CIC
Genfit CIC Pfeiffer Vacuum EQB M ota Engil CBI Vivendi CIC
Gerresheimer Ag EQB Ponsse OPG Obrascon Huarte Lain GVC Wolters Kluwer NIBC
Guerbet CIC Prima Industrie BAK Ramirent OPG Xing Ag EQB
Heidelberg Pharma EQB Prysmian BAK Royal Bam Group NIBC
Korian CIC Schaltbau Holding Ag EQB Sacyr GVC
M erck EQB Smt Scharf Ag EQB Saint Gobain CIC
Page 49 of 52
Oil & Gas P ro ducers M em(*) Hispania Activos Inmobiliarios GVC Lassila & Tikanoja OPG I Grandi Viaggi BAK
Eni BAK Igd BAK Openjobmetis BAK Iberso l CBI
Galp Energia CBI Lar España GVC Rai Way BAK Int. A irlines Group GVC
Gas Plus BAK M erlin Properties GVCT echno lo gy H ardware &
EquipmentM em(*) Intralo t IBG
Hellenic Petro leum IBG Realia GVC Asm International NIBC Kotipizza OPG
M aurel Et Prom CIC Technopolis OPG Asml NIBC M elia Hotels International GVC
M otor Oil IBG Wcm Ag EQB Besi NIBC Nh Hotel Group GVC
Neste Corporation OPG So ftware & C o mputer Services M em(*) Ericsson OPG Opap IBG
Qgep CBI Affecto OPG Gigaset EQB Snaitech BAK
Repsol GVC Akka Technologies CIC Nokia OPG Snowworld NIBC
Total CIC Alten CIC Roodmicrotec NIBC Sodexo CIC
Oil Services M em(*) Altran CIC S&T Ag EQB Sonae Capital CBI
Bourbon CIC Assystem CIC Slm Solutions EQB Trigano CIC
Cgg CIC Atos CIC Stmicroelectronics BAK Utilit ies M em(*)
Fugro NIBC Axway Software CIC Suess M icrotec EQB Acciona GVC
Rubis CIC Basware OPG Teleste OPG Acea BAK
Saipem BAK Comptel OPG Va-Q-Tec EQB Albioma CIC
Sbm Offshore NIBC Ctac NIBC T eleco mmunicat io ns M em(*) Direct Energie CIC
Technipfmc Plc CIC Digia Plc OPG 1&1 Drillisch Ag EQB Edp CBI
Tecnicas Reunidas GVC Econocom CIC Acotel BAK Edp Renováveis CBI
Tenaris BAK Esi Group CIC Bouygues CIC Enagas GVC
Vallourec CIC Exprivia BAK Deutsche Telekom EQB Endesa GVC
Vopak NIBC F-Secure OPG Dna OPG Enel BAK
P erso nal Go o ds M em(*) Gft Technologies EQB Elisa OPG Erg BAK
Adidas EQB Ict Group NIBC Euskaltel GVC Eydap IBG
Adler M odemaerkte EQB Indra Sistemas GVC Freenet EQB Falck Renewables BAK
Amer Sports OPG Nemetschek Se EQB Iliad CIC Fortum OPG
Basicnet BAK Neurones CIC Kpn Telecom NIBC Gas Natural Fenosa GVC
Cie Fin. Richemont CIC Nexus Ag EQB M asmovil GVC Hera BAK
Geox BAK Novabase CBI Nos CBI Iberdro la GVC
Gerry Weber EQB Ordina NIBC Orange CIC Iren BAK
Hermes Intl. CIC Psi Software Ag EQB Ote IBG Italgas BAK
Hugo Boss EQB Reply BAK Retelit BAK Public Power Corp IBG
Kering CIC Rib Software EQB Tele Columbus EQB Red Electrica De Espana GVC
Luxottica BAK Rovio Entertainment OPG Telecom Italia BAK Ren CBI
Lvmh CIC Scout24 EQB Telefonica GVC Snam BAK
M arimekko OPG Seven Principles Ag EQB Telefonica Deutschland EQB Terna BAK
M oncler BAK Sii CIC Telia OPG
Puma EQB Software Ag EQB Tiscali BAK
Safilo BAK Sopra Steria Group CIC United Internet EQB
Salvatore Ferragamo BAK Tieto OPG Vodafone BAK
Sarantis IBG Tomtom NIBC T ravel & Leisure M em(*)
Swatch Group CIC Suppo rt Services M em(*) Accor CIC
Technogym BAK Amadeus GVC Aegean Airlines IBG
Tod'S BAK Asiakastieto Group OPG Air France Klm CIC
R eal Estate M em(*) Batenburg NIBC Autogrill BAK
Adler Real Estate EQB Cellnex Telecom GVC Beneteau CIC
Beni Stabili BAK Dpa NIBC Compagnie Des Alpes CIC
Citycon OPG Ei Towers BAK Elior CIC
Demire EQB Enav BAK Europcar CIC
Deutsche Euroshop EQB Fiera M ilano BAK Finnair OPG
Grivalia IBG Inwit BAK Gamenet BAK
LEGEND: BAK: Banca Akros; CIC: CM CIC Market Solutions; CBI: Caixa-Banco de Investimento; GVC: GVC Gaesco Beksa, SV, SA; EQB: equinet bank; IBG: Investment Bank of Greece, NIBC: NIBC Bank N.V: OPG: OP Corporate Bank:;as of 4
th April 2018
Page 50 of 52
List of ESN Analysts (**)
Artur Amaro CBI +351 213 89 6822 [email protected] Konstantinos Manolopoulos IBG +30 210 817 3388 [email protected]
Stefan Augustin EQB +49-69-58997-430 [email protected] Katharina Mayer EQB +49 69 58997-432 [email protected]
Helena Barbosa CBI +351 21 389 6831 [email protected] Fanny Meindre, PhD CIC +33 1 53 48 80 84 [email protected]
Winfried Becker EQB +49 69 58997-416 [email protected] Marietta Miemietz CFA EQB +49-69-58997-439 [email protected]
Javier Bernat GVC +34 91 436 7816 jav [email protected] Dustin Mildner EQB +49 69 58997-438 [email protected]
Dimitris Birbos IBG +30 210 81 73 392 [email protected] Henri Parkkinen OPG +358 10 252 4409 [email protected]
Agnès Blazy CIC +33 1 53 48 80 67 [email protected] Victor Peiro Pérez GVC +34 91 436 7812 [email protected]
Rafael Bonardell GVC +34 91 436 78 71 [email protected] Alexandre Plaud CIC +33 1 53 48 80 90 [email protected]
Andrea Bonfà BAK +39 02 4344 4269 [email protected] Francis Prêtre CIC +33 4 78 92 02 30 [email protected]
Jean-Baptiste Bouchet CIC +33 1 53 48 80 69 [email protected] Francesco Previtera BAK +39 02 4344 4033 francesco.prev [email protected]
Christian Bruns EQB +49 69 58997 415 [email protected] Jari Raisanen OPG +358 10 252 4504 [email protected]
Giada Cabrino, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4092 [email protected] Hannu Rauhala OPG +358 10 252 4392 [email protected]
Niclas Catani OPG +358 10 252 8780 [email protected] Matias Rautionmaa OPG +358 10 252 4408 [email protected]
Pierre Chedeville CIC +33 1 53 48 80 97 [email protected] Eric Ravary CIC +33 1 53 48 80 71 [email protected]
Emmanuel Chevalier CIC +33 1 53 48 80 72 [email protected] Iñigo Recio Pascual GVC +34 91 436 7814 [email protected]
David Da Maia CIC +33 1 53 48 89 36 [email protected] John David Roeg NIBC +31 (0)20 550 86 46 [email protected]
Edwin de Jong NIBC +312 0 5508569 [email protected] Jean-Luc Romain CIC +33 1 53 48 80 66 [email protected]
Martijn den Drijver NIBC +312 0 5508636 [email protected] Vassilis Roumantzis IBG +30 2108173394 [email protected]
Christian Devismes CIC +33 1 53 48 80 85 [email protected] Zafer Rüzgar EQB +49 69 58 99 74 12 [email protected]
Andrea Devita, CFA BAK +39 02 4344 4031 [email protected] Antti Saari OPG +358 10 252 4359 [email protected]
Enrico Esposti, CIIA BAK +39 02 4344 4022 [email protected] Paola Saglietti BAK +39 02 4344 4287 [email protected]
Rafael Fernández de Heredia GVC +34 91 436 78 08 [email protected] Francesco Sala BAK +39 02 4344 4240 [email protected]
Gabriele Gambarova BAK +39 02 43 444 289 [email protected] Tim Schuldt, CFA EQB +49 69 5899 7433 [email protected]
Eduardo Garcia Arguelles GVC +34 914 367 810 [email protected] Cengiz Sen EQB +4969 58997 435 [email protected]
Alexandre Gérard CIC +33 1 53 48 80 93 [email protected] Pekka Spolander OPG +358 10 252 4351 [email protected]
Philipp Häßler, CFA EQB +49 69 58997 414 [email protected] Kimmo Stenvall OPG +358 10 252 4561 [email protected]
Simon Heilmann EQB +49 69 58 997 413 [email protected] Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi IBG +30 210 81 73 384 [email protected]
Dr. Knud Hinkel, CFA EQB + 49 69 58997 419 [email protected] Manuel Tanzer, CFA EQB +49 69 58997-418 [email protected]
Ebrahim Homani CIC +33 1 53 48 80 87 [email protected] Luigi Tramontana BAK +39 02 4344 4239 [email protected]
Carlos Jesus CBI +351 21 389 6812 [email protected] Johan van den Hooven NIBC +312 0 5508518 [email protected]
Mark Josefson EQB +4969-58997-437 [email protected] Dylan van Haaften NIBC +312 0 611915485 [email protected]
Jean-Christophe Lefèvre-Moulenq CIC +33 1 53 48 80 65 [email protected] Sebastian Winkler NIBC +31 6 21 16 17 94 [email protected]
João Miguel Lourenço CBI +35 121 389 6841 [email protected]
(**) excluding: strategists, macroeconomists, heads of research not covering specific stocks, credit analysts, technical analysts
Page 51 of 52
ESN Recommendation System
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the
basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital
reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5
categories: Buy (B), Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to
rate the stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of volatility on the markets
ESN Ratings Breakdown
For full ESN Recommendation and Target price history (in the last 12 months) please see ESN Website Link
Date and time of production: 15/05/2018 09:07 CET First date and time of dissemination: 15/05/2018 09:09 CET
Buy38%
Accumulate31%
Neutral25%
Reduce5%
Sell1%
ESN Analyser
Page 52 of 52
Disclaimer: These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any unauthorised use, disclosure, copying, distribution, or taking of any action in reliance on these reports is strictly prohibited. The views and expressions in the reports are expressions of opinion and are given in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. These reports may not be reproduced in whole or in part or passed to third parties without permission. The information herein was obtained from various sources. 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ESN, its Members and their affiliates may submit a pre-publication draft (without mentioning neither the recommendation nor the target price/fair value) of its reports for review to the Investor Relations Department of the issuer forming the subject of the report, solely for the purpose of correcting any inadvertent material inaccuracies. Like all members employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability For further details about the analyst certification, the specific risks of the company and about the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this report/note, please refer to the specific disclaimer pages prepared by the ESN Members. In the case of a short note please refer to the latest relevant published research on single stock or contact the analyst named on the front of the report/note for detailed information on the valuation methods, earning estimates and risks. A full description of all the organisational and administrative measures taken by the Members of ESN to manage interest and conflicts of interest are available on the website of the Members or in the local disclaimer of the Members or contacting directly the Members. Research is available through the ESN Members sales representative. ESN will provide periodic updates on companies or sectors based on company-specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. Unless agreed in writing with an ESN Member, this research is intended solely for internal use by the recipient. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into Australia, Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in Australia, Canada or Japan or to any resident thereof. This document is for distribution in the U.K. Only to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and fall within article 19(5) of the financial services and markets act 2000 (financial promotion) order 2005 (the “order”) or (ii) are persons falling within article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the order, namely high net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc. (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted on or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. By accepting this report you agree to be bound by the foregoing instructions. You shall indemnify ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any director, officer or employee thereof) against any damages, claims, losses, and detriments resulting from or in connection with the unauthorized use of this document. For disclosure upon “conflicts of interest” on the companies under coverage by all the ESN Members, on the “interests” and “conflicts” of the analysts and on each “company recommendation history”, please visit the ESN website (http://www.esnpartnership.eu/research_and_database_access/insite)
or refer to the local disclaimer of the Members, or contact directly the Member www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
www.cmcicms.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers
www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission
www.nibc.com regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten
www.op.fi regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority
www.valores.gvcgaesco.es regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores
Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)
Banca Akros S.p.A. Viale Eginardo, 29 20149 MILANO Italy Phone: +39 02 43 444 389 Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
GVC Gaesco Beka, SV, SA C/ Marques de Villamagna 3 28001 Madrid Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Caixa-Banco de Investimento Avenida João XXI, 63 1000-300 Lisboa Portugal Phone: +351 21 313 73 00 Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
CM - CIC Market Solutions 6, avenue de Provence 75441 Paris Cedex 09 France
Phone: +33 1 53 48 81 93
equinet Bank AG Gräfstraße 97 60487 Frankfurt am Main Germany Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 212 Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
OP Corporate Bank plc P.O.Box 308 Teollisuuskatu 1, 00013 Helsinki Finland Phone: +358 10 252 011 Fax: +358 10 252 2703
NIBC Bank N.V. Gustav Mahlerlaan 348 P.O.Box 235 1082 ME Amsterdam The Netherlands Phone: +31 20 550 8500 Fax: +31 20 626 8064
Investment Bank of Greece 32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou, 151 25 Maroussi, Greece
Phone: +30 210 81 73 383