5 Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 (and beyond)
Eric SeufertPwC Outlook Conference, Amsterdam
October 9, 2014
Who am I?
Who am I?
Freemium Economics
Who am I?
Freemium Economics
Head of Marketing at Wooga
Who am I?
Freemium Economics
Head of Marketing at Wooga
Mobile Dev Memo
Where are we now?
Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /
iPhone) published by 2 devs
Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /
iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are
games
Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /
iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are
games• 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first
published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013)
Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
Where are we now?• 4 of Top 10 grossing apps (US /
iPhone) published by 2 devs• 6 / 10 Top 10 grossing apps are
games• 8/10 Top Grossing apps were first
published in 2012 or earlier (Game of War and Farm Heroes Saga were first published in 2013)
• Supercell (Clash of Clans, Hay Day) and King (Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Saga) spend (reportedly) $1MM per day on marketing*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/brand-advertising-mobile-cpi-prices/Top 10 Grossing Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
Where are we now?Four companies own apps that generate 70% of the unique visitors to the Top 25 mobile apps*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
Where are we now?Most smartphone users download 0 new apps per month*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
Where are we now?Nearly half of all time spent in mobile apps is devoted to users’ single favorite apps*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/the-problem-with-app-store-distribution-in-3-charts/
Where are we now?Brand advertisers are spending just 20% of their budgets on mobile now and will increase that share to 35% by 2018*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
Where are we now?VC funding into the gaming sector is down by 6% in H1 2014 against the 2013 run rate*
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*
*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*
*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*
*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*
*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
Where are we now?Advertising (UA) opportunities are growing…in low ARPU regions*
*http://investor.fb.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1326801-14-32&CIK=1326801
“ “
-- Facebook 10Q, Q2 2014
But…it’s not all bad.
But…it’s not all bad.Mobile is growing:
China USA UK Japan Brazil India Others Total0.00
200.00400.00600.00800.00
1,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.00
Smartphone Shipments, 2013 vs. 2017
2013 Shipments2017 Shipments
Source: IDC
But…it’s not all bad.Mobile gaming is growing:
Source: Gartner
2012 2013 2014 2015 $-
$5.000
$10.000
$15.000
$20.000
$25.000
$9.280
$13.208
$17.146
$22.009
Mobile Gaming Revenues ($BB), Worldwide
But…it’s not all bad.Consumers have come to terms with mobile ads:
Source: xAd / Telmetrics
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
• Infrastructure of mobile advertising ecosystem designed for mobile gaming. New verticals are beginning to shift into mobile advertising• Brand money;• Travel (20% YoY increase in mobile travel bookings H1
2013-2014*).
*http://mobiledevmemo.com/why-mobile-marketing-costs-rising/
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
• Retargeting and deep-linking allow for better and more natural ad formats than traditional mobile app install ad:
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
• Native ads are less intrusive and context-aware:
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
• Imaginative new ad formats will obfuscate / abstract away the advertising dynamic:• TinyLoot: paying users to watch ads and engage with new
apps;• LoopMe: users rate ads and only see ad types they enjoy.
Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
Top 10 Downloaded Chart, US / iPhone, October 2 2014
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp
(#14)
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp
(#14)• 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google
• YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16)
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• 4 of Top 20 downloaded apps (US / iPhone) published by Facebook• Facebook Messenger (#1), Facebook App (#2), Instagram (#4), and WhatsApp
(#14)• 3 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by Google
• YouTube (#5), Google Maps (#15), Google Utilities (#16)• 5 of Top 20 downloaded apps published by companies that can move users into
mobile from their massive existing user bases• Pandora• Pinterest• Spotify• Twitter• iTunes U
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart
• Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation”
“App constellations” causing app store chart position inflation
• Companies that command massive existing user bases and can unbundle functionality and / or shift traffic to new mobile apps are conquering the Top Downloaded chart
• Chart positions that were previously capable of being “acquired” via advertising are now occupied by these apps, causing “chart position inflation”• Eg. Facebook raised number of downloads needed to
reach #1 with messenger. Previous amount of downloads needed only reaches #2 now.
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
Increasing overall monetization
Increasing overall monetization• Tablet shipments are slipping:
Source: Monthly TFT LCD Shipment Database
Increasing overall monetization• Meanwhile, “phablet” shipments are rising and may overtake
both smartphone and tablet shipments
Source: BI Intelligence
Increasing overall monetization• This is a good thing for app developers; users spend more
money on bigger screens.
Source: Distimo
Increasing overall monetization• Meanwhile, CPMs are trending up…which means more
revenue from ads.
Source: Fiksu
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
Increasing Platform “Lock In”
Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked
into proprietary tool chain
• Apple’s upcoming iTunes analytics suite
Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked
into proprietary tool chain
• Facebook’s Parse + Audience Network + Atlas
Increasing Platform “Lock In”• Platform operators are competing to keep developers locked
into proprietary tool chain
• Twitter analytics + app developmentplatform (Fabric)
Five Trends in Mobile Gaming For 2015 and Beyond
1. Fundamental evolution of “App Install Ad” format2. “App constellations” causing app store chart position
inflation3. Increasing overall monetization4. Increasing platform “lock in”5. More franchise tie-ins
More Franchise Tie-ins
More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize
devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize
devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize
devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize
devs to partner with existing, well-known IP
More Franchise Tie-ins• Rising marketing costs and chart position inflation incentivize
devs to partner with existing, well-known IP