©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza1
Roberto Buizza European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ERA-CLIM2 M36 Review Meeting
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza2
TheFP7ERA-CLIM2project(2014-2017)
Goal:Produc,onofaconsistent20th-centuryreanalysisofthecoupledEarth-system:atmosphere,landsurface,ocean,sea-ice,andthecarboncycle
Maincomponents:
• Produc,onofcoupledreanalyses,for20Candthemodernera (WP1)• Researchanddevelopmentincoupleddataassimila,on (WP2)• Earthsystemobserva,onsforextendedclimatereanalyses (WP3)• Evalua,onofuncertain,esinobserva,onsandreanalyses (WP4)• Improvingaccesstoreanalysisdataandinputobserva,ons (WP5)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza3
The3rdGeneralAssembly:Wien16-18Jan2017
Fewnumbers:Ø AEendedby34people,with33presenta1onsfromERA-CLIM2par1cipants,Ø WGdiscussions,ExternalAdvisercomments,discussionsØ Deliverables:somedelaysindatare-processing(EUMETSAT)duetochangesin
compu1ngenvironment
Asaprojectcoordinator,Ithinkthattheprojecthasbeenprogressingverywellandmostlyon-schedulewithrespecttotheplandefinedattheendof2015:• Verygoodoverallinterac1on• CERA-20Cisagreatsuccess:thisisthe1stCoupledReanalysisofthe20thCentury• CERA-SATisinproduc1onandplanstocomplete8-10years(2008-to-date)• Rescuedandpost-processedobserva1onsarebeingfedintokeydataarchives• NewlydevelopedmethodsarebeingintegratedinsoYwaredepositoriestobetested
forfutureuse
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza4
Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP1
Timeseriesofthemul4variateENSOindexforERA-20C,CERA-20CandtheWolter&Timlinobserva4onalproduct(MEI.ext)TheElNiñoandLaNiñaeventsarecapturedbythetworeanalyses
§ CERA-20Cdatasetiscompleted(1901-2010)§ CERA-SATproduc1onhasstarted(2008-2016)§ OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyERA-20C
completed§ LandcarbonreanalysisbasedonORCHIDEE
forcedbyCERA-20Ciscompleted§ OceancarbonreanalysisforcedbyCERA-20C
scheduledfor2017§ Consolida1onoftheORCHIDEEmodelforland
carbonreanalyses:landcarbonreanalysesbasedontheconsolidatedORCHIDEE,forcedbyCERA-20CandCERA-SATscheduledfor2017
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza5
Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP2§ Contribu1onstotheWMOCoupledDataAssimila1onWorkshopinToulouse,Oct2016(co-
sponsoredbyERA-CLIM2)§ DeliverableD2.4completedbyCMCC:“Stronglycoupleddataassimila1onexperiments
withlinearizedocean-atmospherebalancerela1onshipsandhybridcovariances”§ Paperpublishedoncarboncycleassimila1on(Peylinetal.,GMD).§ Progressonotherupcomingdeliverables–seelaterpresenta1ons.
Towards strongly coupled DA:
Variance explained for 2m air temp from a linearised air-sea balance operator
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza6
Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP3§ Contribu1onstotheConferenceon‘Observa1onsforReanalyses’(22June2016,Maynooth,
Ireland,togetherwithACREmee1ng)§ Con1nua1onofdatarescue:Deliverable3.4§ RTTOVupdatesandoceandatabaseupdatesdelivered,earlysatellitedataalmost§ Casestudy‘Avalanchesduringthewinterof1916’
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza7
Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP4
§ Precipita1onvalida1onwithDWDdatahasbeenprogressing
§ ERA-preSATpapersubmiEed§ Goodprogressin‘coupledevalua1on’ofoceanicand
atmosphericreanalysisdata§ QualityControlfornewlydigi1sedupperair,surface,snow
datafromRussiaandothercountriesalmostcompleted§ CHUANv2.0datamergedwithavailabledata,feedback
dataforall1meseriescalculatedforvariousfullandsurfacedataonlyreanalyses
§ GoodprogressinRS-Thomogeniza1onbackto1939,RS-Hhomogeniza1onbackto1979
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza8
Keyachievementsofpast9months:WP5§ TechnicaldevelopmentinMARStosupport
archivingandretrievalofNetCDFformatcompleted
§ Consolida1onofCERA-20Cdataintotheuserversionhasbeenprogressingwell:• Complete:Atmosphericandwavemonthly
means:30Tbytes.AvailableviathePublicDataServer
• Inprogress:Atmosphericandwaveanalysis(allmembers)andensemblemeansandstandarddevia1on:200Tbytes.ExpectedendJan2017
• Followedbyforecast(allmembers),observa1onfeedbackandoceancomponent:Over1Pbyte.Expectedformonth42.
§ WehaveextendedtheframeworkofthePublicDataServertoreportonregisteredusersandaccesssta1s1cs,suchasvolumeandfieldsretrieved.Thishasbeendoneusingotherdatasets,buttherepor1ngwillbeavailablefortheaccesstoCERA-20Cduring2017.
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza9
Projectstatus:deliverablesWP1
Delivered DelayedStatus:
D1.1 CERA-20C 24 36 Delivered.
D1.2 CERA-20C/Carbon 36 48ExtensionallowscarbonreanalysestouseatmosphericforcingsfromERA20C.
D1.3 CERA-SAT 36 48(par1ally)
ExtensionallowstoestablishtheCERA-SATsystem,andrunitforaasubperiod(numberofyearstobeconfirmedoncesystemisupandrunning)between1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproduc1onspeed
D1.4 CERA-SAT/Land 36 48(par1ally)
ExtensionallowsCERA-SAT/Landsystemtobeimplementedandrunoverasubperiodbetween1979and2016dependingofHPCresourcesandproduc1onspeed.
D1.5 StatusreportWP1 8 8 Delivered
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza10
Projectstatus:deliverablesWP2
Delivered DelayedStatus:
D2.1 SSTassimila1oncode(METO) 27 39 Extensionallowsmore1mefortes1ngofdevelopmentsD2.2 Sea-iceassimila1oncode(MERCO) 27 39 Extensionallowstes1ngtobedoneinmorerecentversionofsystemD2.3 EnsembleBNEMOVARcode(CERFACS) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.4 ReportonensemblecovariancesincoupledDA(CMCC) 24 36 DeliveredD2.5 Reporton4D-Vartests(INRIA) 27 39 Extensionallowshigherqualitydeliverable
D2.6 Reportonlandcarbonmodelop1misa1on(UVSQ) 34 46Delayoftheproduc1onoftheclimatereanalysisinWP1putssomeconstraintontheCcyclereanalysis
D2.7 Reportonoceanbiogeochemicalcouplingmethods(MERCO) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.8 Reportonstrengths/weaknessesofcoupledDA(UREAD) 18 18 DeliveredD2.9 Reportoncouplederrorcovariances(METO) 18 18 DeliveredD2.10 ReportoncoupledmodeldriYanbiascorrec1on(UREAD) 34 46 ExtensionmakesitpossibletodeliverahighqualityreportD2.11 ReportonfullycoupledDA(INRIA) 34 46 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD2.12 Statusreport(METO) 8 8 Delivered
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza11
Projectstatus:deliverablesWP3
Delivered DelayedStatus:
D3.1 Datacatalogue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.2 Priori1esfordatarescue(UBERN) 6 6 deliveredD3.3 Meta-databaseupdate(UBERN) 36 48 con1nuousD3.4 In-situdataforreanalysis(UBERN) 24 36 SpanishEbroandNorthAfricanupperairnotin1meD3.5 In-situdata(other)(UBERN) 30 42 Chiledatanotin1meD3.6 Quality-controlledversionofD3.4(UBERN) 36 48 ShiYindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,Interna1onaldaysD3.7 Quality-controlledversionofD3.5(UBERN) 33 48 ShiYindeadlinesallowsmoredatafromFrenchoverseas,Interna1onaldaysD3.8 RTTOVupdates(METO) 36 36 deliveredD3.9 Earlysatellitedata(METO) 36 36 TobesubmiEedbyendofJanuary(METO);
D3.10 AVHRRpolarwinds(EUMST) 24 36
ExpectedinM48-Delayedduetoupdatesofopera1onalEUMETSATalgorithmanddelayednewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;itwillcausenootherdelaysfortheproject;
D3.11 SSM/T2andAMSU-B/MHSradiancedata(EUMST) 24 24
ExpectedinM42-EUMETSATClimateMonitoringSatelliteApplica1onFacility(CM-SAF)diddeliveranATBDandapreliminaryversionofthedatarecordbutnottheprocessortoEUMETSAT;furthermore,theearlyversionofdatahadissuesthatresultedintheneedtoupdatetheinter-satellitecalibra1onmethod;itwillcausenofurtherdelaystotheproject'sdeliverables;
D3.12 Geosta1onaryradiancedata(EUMST) 36 36
ExpectedinM42-Recalibra1onofMeteosatIRchannelsisfinished;whatiss1llmissingistheintegra1onintotheoriginalimagefiles,whichisdelayedduetothedelayeddeliveryofthenewcomputeenvironmentatEUMETSAT;thiswillcauseadelayindeliverableD3.13;
D3.13 AMVfromMFG(EUMST) 36 42ExpectedinM48-ThiswillbedelayedduetodependenceonD3.12;thiswillnotcauseanydelaytootherproject'sdeliverables;
D3.14 Radioocculta1ondata(EUMST) 36 36
ExpectedinM48-DelayedduetoerrorfoundinGRASreprocesseddata;asecondprocessingoftheGRASmissiondatahasbeenperformedbutothermissiondataarependingtheprocessing.
D3.15 HadISST2update(METO) 18 18 deliveredD3.16 Icethicknessdata(METO) 12 12 deliveredD3.17 Oceandatabaseupdate(METO) 24 30 delivered
D3.18 Snowdataproduct(FMI) 24 36
ExpectedinM42-FMIinves1ga1onontheop1mumsetofcalcula1onparametersofSWEassimila1onsystemiss1llgoingon(adetailedinves1ga1onneededinordertoobtainanimprovedproductwhencomparedwiththeoriginalGlobSnowSWEClimateDataRecord).
D3.19 Qualitycontrolledversionofsnowdatabase(insitu)(FMI) 36 48 ExtensionallowshigherqualitydeliverableD3.20 HadISDupdate(METO) 12 12 delivered
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza12
Projectstatus:deliverablesWP4
Delivered DelayedStatus:
D4.1 RSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 12 20 delivered
D4.2 UpdatedRSbiasadjustments(UNIVIE) 36 48
ERA5andaERA-preSATrerunareexpectedtobemuchbeEerreferencethanpreviousreanalysesbutarenotavailableinmonth36.Valueofdeliverablewouldbesignificantlydegraded
D4.3 QCforobsfromFFCUL(FFCUL) 36 48
FFCULhaddifficul1esinpersonnelrecruitmentandworkshardondigi1za1onofChileanandotherdata.Thishaspriorityfornow.QCaspectwouldimprovealotif12monthsmoreareavailable
D4.4 Visualiza1ontoolforQC(FFCUL) 12 12 deliveredD4.5 QCforupper-air,surface,andsnowobs.(RIHMI) 36 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD4.6 Methodologyforquan1fyingobserror(UBERN) 36 36 delivered
D4.7 Verifica1onofprecipita1onagainstGPCC(DWD) 36 48Datasetwillbereadybutvalida1onofERA5,CERA-20Cwouldnotbepossible
D4.8 Globalenergy,water,carboncycles(ECMWF,UNIVIE,UVSQ) 36 48 Evalua1onswithoutERA5,CERA-20Cwouldbemuchlessinnova1veD4.9 Upperairdataqc(UBERN,RIHMI) 24 24 deliveredD4.10 Comparisonwithotherreanalyses(UNIVIE;ECMWF) 36 48 ComparisonswithoutERA5,CERA-20Cwouldbemuchlessinnova1ve
D4.11 Lowfrequencyvariabilityandtrends(ALL) 36 48WithoutcompletedERA5,CERA-20Cmanyevalua1onswouldhavetobebasedondatanotcreatedinERA-CLIM2
D4.12 Uncertaintyofinputparametersforcarbonbudget(UVSQ) 12 20 deliveredD4.13 Confidenceintervalsoncarbonfluxes(UVSQ) 36 48 Thosewouldhavetobebasedonexis1ngERA-20C,notnewCERA-20C
D4.14ComparisonofCTESSEL,ORCHIDEEfluxes1mates(ECMWF,UVSQ,UNIVIE) 36 48
ThiscouldbedonepartlywithunfinishedCERA-20CbutmuchvaluewouldbeaddedifcompleteCERA-20Csetwereavailable
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza13
Projectstatus:deliverablesWP5-WP6-WP9
Delivered DelayedStatus:
D5.1 NetCDFinMARS 12 30 Design,specifica1onsandtechnicalworkcompleted.
D5.2 CERAdataservices 24 48
Consolida1onofdataintouserversioninprogress.Monthlymeansreleased.Expectedcomple1onformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMee1ng.
D5.3 Reportondataservices 24 48
TechnicalworkcompletebasedonERA-20C.D5.3willreportondataservicesforyear2017.xpectedcomple1onformonth48,asinrevisedplananddiscussedduringtheM27ReviewMee1ng.
D6.1 Projectwebsite 10 10 deliveredD6.2 Projectbrief1 12 12 deliveredD6.3 Workshopreport1 19 19 deliveredD6.4 Projectbrochure 22 36 ExpectedinM39D6.5 Policybrief2 24 36 TobedeliveredbyendofJanD6.6 Workshopreport2 31 31D6.7 Policybrief3 36 48D6.8 Dissemina1onplan 4 4 deliveredD6.9 Policybrief4 n/a 48 D9.1 Coordina1onplan 36 48D9.2 Commonwebpage 6 6 deliveredD9.3 Commonlessonslearned 24 24 deliveredD9.4 Mee1ngminutes 36 48
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza14
ECMWF,FP7andC3Sreanalysesproduc[on
20212020201920182017201620152014
ERA-Interim&ERA-Interim/Land(1979-todate)
ERA-20CERA-CLIM
ERA-CLIM2 CERA-20C CERA-SAT
NEWH2020CALL?
ERA5(1979-todate)C3S
CERA100(conven,omalobs,1918-2018)???
ERA6(1979-todate)C3Sin2019/20
ECMWF
ECMWF
ORA-S5(Oceanandsea-ice,¼deg,z75)–1979-..
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza15
ForthcomingERA-CLIM2mee[ngs
ERA-CLIM2WSsandGAs:§ 16-18Jan2017:ERA-CLIM23rdGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofVienna)§ 19Jan2017:ERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Univ.ofVienna)§ 12-14Dec2017-ERA-CLIM24thGeneralAssembly(Univ.ofBern;Switzerland)§ 15Dec2017(am)-M48ReviewMee1ng(Univ.ofBern;Switzerland)
RelatedWSs/Seminars/Conferences:§ 97thAMSAnnualMee1ng(22-26Jan2017;SeaEle,US)§ EGUMee1ng(23-28Apr2017;Vienna,Austria)§ ECMWFAnnualSeminaron‘Ensemblepredic1on:past,presentandfuture’(Reading,UK)§ 5thInterna1onalConferenceonReanalysis(ICR5;13-19Nov2017;Rome,Italy)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza16
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R1.Furtherar1culatetechnicallyandthema1callytherela1onshipbetweenERA-CLIM2capability&productsandthoseofC3S–toop1mizethecurrentandfutureimpactofR&Dintoopera1onalservicesØ TheERA-CLIM2Teamisac1velyworkingwiththeC3STeamatarangeoflevels
(knowledgeandexper1seexchanges;technicallevel;outreach).Ø Datarescued/re-processedwithinERA-CLIMandERA-CLIM2areusedintheproduc1onof
ERA5(thenewC3SreanalysisthatwillreplaceERA-Interim)and/orwillbeusedinERA6Ø CERA-SATandERA5willbecomparedfortheoverlappingperiod(2008-2016),andwill
providevaluableindica1onsforthenextC3SreanalysisØ WARNING:thereisaneedforfurtherH2020-fundedR&DtopreparethenextC3Sre-
analysis(data-rescue,data-processing,DA-methodologies,..)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza17
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R2.Consolidatetheestablishmentofacon1nuouscyclefortheproduc1onofreanalyses,emphasizingtotheexternalworldthatR&Dreanalysis(ERA-CLIM2)andopera1onalreanalyses(C3S)arethetwofacesofthesamecoin,andthatR&Disafundamentalprerequisitetoopera1onsØ Produc1onconsolida1onin-fieri(seeegearlierslide14)Ø H2020R&Dfundingareneededtocon[nuetoprogressinreanalysisproduc[on:
withoutacon[nuousR&Dac[vity,futureopera[onal(C3S)reanalyseswillnotcon[nuetoimprove,neitherinqualitynorinscope
Ø ERA5andCERA-20CarehostedintheMARSsystem.ThePublicDatasetsinterfacetothearchiveshowscurrentlybothentries,see:hEp://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/However!Theinterfaceforselec1onoffieldswillbedifferent.ForCERA-20Cwewillfollowthesameaspreviousre-analysis(ERA-Interim,etc...).ForERA5theideaistomakeitavailableviatheCopernicusClimateDataStore(CDS).OncetheCDSisavailable,wewillremovetheERA5entryfromthePublicDatasetsinterface.
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza18
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R3.Takerelevantmeasures(e.g.involveexternalrela1onsexperts)toop1mizecommunica1onaboutthenatureofERA2productsandtheirlimita1onsandinherentuncertain1es(forinstanceinthetropics).Developtext,diagrams,webinterfacesasappropriate.Makesurethereisguidanceforusersregardingwhichproductshouldbeusedforwhichapplica1on.Ø Workhasbeenprogressingwelltowardsachievingtheseobjec1ves,asdocumentedby
theGA3presenta1onsØ NowthatCERA-20Cstartbeingavailable,publica1onsarebeingplannedtodocumentthe
qualityofCERA-20C(resultspresentedatGA3suggeststhatissuperiortotheotherclimatereanalyses(ERA-20CandNOAA-20CR)
Ø Newdiagnos1csandvalida1ontoolsarebeingdevelopedØ A‘UserSupport’ac1vityisbeingestablishedatECMWFtohelpaccessanddata-retrival
(synergieswithC3S)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza19
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R4.Reinforceessen1alinterna1onalcoopera1ontotakemaximumstockoflong-rangereanalysesperformedbyotherregions/countriesinthepastdecade(regardingobserva1on-rescueaswellascoupled-assimila1on-systems’development)Ø WorktoachievethishasbeenprogressingØ ERA-CLIM2fundedreanalyses(CERA-20CandtheforthcomingCERA-SAT)arebeing
adver1sedatConferences(e.g.EuropeanGeophysicalUnionGeneralMee1ng2016and2017;EuropeanMeteorologicalSocietyAnnualMee1ng2016;AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyAnnualMee1ng2016and2017;..)
Ø Publica1onsarebeingpublishedandpreparedbothforpeer-reviewedjournalsandforopenly-availablepublica1ons(egECMWFNewsleEer,UniversityInternalReports,..)
Ø Interna1onalcoopera1onincommunica1on/outreachac1vi1es:Ø ERA-CLIM2co-sponsoredtheInt.ConfonCoupledDAØ ERA-CLIM2Coordinatorhasbeenaskedtoco-chairtheScien1ficOrganizingCommiEeeofthe
5thInterna1onalConferenceinReanalysis(Rome,Nov2017;ICR4washeldatNOAAin2012)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza20
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R5.Sustainefforts(indirectlythroughinterna1onalnetworksordirectlythroughsupporttoselectedgroupsorindividuals)torescuedatathatisatriskofbeinglost.Iden1fywhicharethehighriskobserva1onsonwhichtofocus.Ø ERA-CLIM2hasbeeninvolvedinthiswork,butmorehastobedoneØ H2020R&Dfundingareneededtocon[nuebothdata-rescueac[vityanddatare-
processingac[vi[es:newdataarecon[nuouslyfound,newproblems(egbreakpoints)indataseriesthatarecon[nuouslydiscoveredneedtobeaddressed;newmethodsarebeingtestedandcouldbeusedinthefuture:withoutacon[nuousac[vity,futurereanalyseswillnotcon[nuetoimprove(inqualityandscope)
©ECMWFERA-CLIM2M36ReviewMee1ng(Wien,16-18Jan2017)-RobertoBuizza21
M27ReviewMee[ngRecommenda[ons
R6.Consideraddingdynamically-meaningfulvariables(suchasPoten1alVor1cityonrelevantisentropicsurfaces)tothelistofmetricscurrentlyusedtoevaluatereanalysisproducts;Interactwithresearchexpertsasappropriate.Ø Thistypeofvariableshavebeenadded(PVandPTlevelsarchivedandavailable)