Environmental Public Health RisksLead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat
Andrew Smith, SM, ScDState ToxicologistE2Tech Meeting
November 19, 2015
Childhood Lead Poisoning
2Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention
1-in-25
Rates of Childhood Lead PoisoningRates are Declining
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Estimated Percent of Screened Children with a Blood Lead Level of ≥ 5 µg/dL - 2003-2014
Perc
ent
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
4 4.5
5 5.5
6 6.5
7 7.5
8 8.5
9 9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800Year 2012
Blood Lead Level (ug/dL)
Num
ber o
f Chi
ldre
n
400+ Children Each Year
Burden of Childhood Lead Poisoning1600+ Children with an eBLL
No Safe LevelIQ deficits at low blood lead levels
5
Lanphear et al., VOLUME 113 | NUMBER 7 | July 2005 • Environmental Health Perspectives
J. Schwartz, VOLUME 66| 1995 • Environmental Research
Lead IQ Income Earnings
Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningEffect of Reduced IQ on Future Earnings
Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningFor Each Birth Cohort ……
$21 - $145 million
in reduced future earnings for 1 year olds born in
2010 and tested for blood lead
~ $42 - $290 million full birth cohort
Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?
1-in-10
Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?
4530150
Source: Maine Tracking Network: https://data.mainepublichealth.gov/tracking/
Arsenic and CancerBladder and Lung
1-in-1000
Arsenic and Heart DiseaseCoronary Heart Disease
Arsenic and Intellectual FunctionBangladesh
Population ExposureSome Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations
• 355,000 Maine households on private wells
• About 887,500 people
• 12% have As > 10 ug/L
• 106,500 people with water As > 10 ug/dL
• 5,300 children less than 6 years
Extreme Heat EventIt’s Rare
1911: Last extreme heat event in Maine with more than 5 days of temperatures near or above 100.
Courtesy of Dick Shaw
Extreme Heat EventBut, What is Extreme?
Extreme Heat EventIncreased Mortality with Heat
Risk increases by 7.6% (95% CI: 3.6, 11.8) on days with max HI of 95°F (as compared to 75°F)
Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.
Predicted Excess DeathsStatewide for Maine
HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD 95 100 105
Excess deaths per day (compared to 75F) 5 7 9
Excess ED visits per day (compared to 75F) 66 99 116
On average, about 30 deaths per day
Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.
Changing Climate?2056 Projections
Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing
More High Heat Days?2056 Projections
Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing
VulnerabilityWe’re the 3rd Oldest State without much AC
In Maine, 53% households report having AC; most are window units (Source: Maine Tracking Network).