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STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER
Enhancing the Implementation of Environmental Fiscal Reform at EU and National Level through the European Semester
· 25 September 2014 · 15th GCET · Copenhagen · Dr. Constanze Adolf ·
· Director Brussels Office · Green Budget Europe ·
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Outline
1. What is the European Semester?
2. How does it work?
3. Hook or much ado about nothing? A critical analysis of 3 Semester cycles
4. Recommendations
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1. What is the European Semester?
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
What is the European Semester?
= Annual cycle of economic and fiscal coordination
• environmental dimension to economic reforms • key policy tool to implement Europe 2020
Strategy:
- Environmental Fiscal Reform and subsidies - Resource efficiency policies
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Europe 2020 key priorities, EU overall headline targets & flagship initiatives
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Europe 2020 strategy & Fiscal Policies
Fiscal surveillance
Macro-economic surveillance
Thematic surveillance
Europe 2020 Integrated Guidelines (IG)
Europe 2020 five headline targets
Stability and Growth Pact
National Reform
Programmes
Stability and Convergence Programmes
Commission’s Annual Growth Survey
EU annual policy guidance and recommendations
EU flagship initiatives and levers
National level
EU level
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
… The EU should should take the lead:
For a 10% tax shift from labour to
environment and resource use
Member States should develop a concrete strategy by 2015 on how to phase out Environmental Harmful Subsidies by 2020
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Environmental taxes (on total tax revenues and social contributions) 2002 and 2012
8
Source: Eurostat 2014
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STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER
Environmental Tax revenue in % of GDP
Source: Eurostat 2013
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STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER
Environmental Tax revenue in % of GDP
Source: Eurostat 2013
Denmark: 4,1 %
The Netherlands: 3,5 %
Slovenia: 3,4 %
Spain, France, Lithuania,
Romania and Slovakia:
below 2 %
Italy: 2,8 %
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2. How does it work?
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
The European Semester – in short
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Annual Growth Survey 2014
1. Pursuing differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation
2. Restoring bank lending to the economy
3. Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow
4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis
5. Modernising public administration
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Annual Growth Survey 2014
1. Pursuing differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation
Tax should be designed to be more growth-friendly, for instance by shifting the tax burden away from labour on to tax bases linked to consumption, property, and combatting pollution (EC/2013/800, p. 7)
Environmentally harmful subsidies should be reduced (EC/2013/800, p. 7)
Member States should ensure longer-term investment inter alia in energy and climate action
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Annual Growth Survey 2014
3. Promoting growth and competitiveness for today and tomorrow
Full implementation of the third energy package in 2014, and improving the cost effectiveness of support schemes for renewable energy.
Promoting resource efficiency by improving waste and water management, recycling and energy efficiency. (EC/2013/800, p. 7)
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Annual Growth Survey 2014
4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis
Job opportunities through greening the economy
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Source: European Commission
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3. Hook or much ado about nothing?
A critical assessment of 3 Semester cycles
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
CSR assessment 2012-2014
2012 2013 2014
Tax Shift /
implement green
taxes
12 11 8
CZ, ES, IE,
HU, IT, LI, LU,
LV
Environmentally
harmful subsidies 0 2 3
BE, FR, IT
Energy 8 17
Source: European Commission and Green Budget Europe
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Yes… but
Clear focus on consolidating budgets (fine) and creating growth (STOP: what kind of growth?), rather than on the wider goals set out in the Europe 2020 stragegy
20
No full account taken of the growth-stimulation potential of EFR or other environmental policies such as improved resource efficiency
EFR not seen as part of the solution (mainstreaming) but as a « nice to have »
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Yes… but II
Mainstreaming of environmental / climate issues limited so far (no implementation of 7 EAP)
21
No logic coherence of recommendations (i.e. green economy)
Where recommendations are not repeated, reasons remain unclear
Who is behind the decisions? Where is the power?
What role for the Semester in the new Commission?
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Weaknesses
Democratic legitimation European and national Parliaments have a very weak role
Consultation of CSOs, MoE, regional decision makers!
Enforcement
Low political priority regarding green taxes, 2030 “targets”
Deliver robust data! CEPRiE
Visibility
Communication between Ministries, Services other MS?
FRE-communicate! contra EU jargon
Implementation Strong sectoral lobby
Best practices and front runners
22
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Implementation of CSRs 2010-2012
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Green Budget Europe activities
Developing alternative CSRs
Lobby European Commission (Sec Gen, DG ECFIN, ENVI and CLIMATE), at Hearing (EP), Green New Deal WG (EP), Member States (EESC), ESOs
„EU 2020 / Semester Coalition“
Developing common CSRs
Hearing at European Parliament and high level conference
EU Semester at Member State level: 3 Pilot countries
European Commission Experts Group
Monthly meetings with environmental NGOs in Brussels
Get involved in the National Reform Programmes
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4. Recommendations
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Recommendations
Stop thinking in dichotomies Europe 2020 versus fiscal surveillance
EFR is part of the solution!
Climate and energy scoreboard and indicators deepening or broadening?
Assess CSR implementation via cohesion policy
Enhance process: Strong CSO’s involvement
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Questions and Answers
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
Rue du Trône 4 • B-1000 Brussels •[email protected] • www.green-budget.eu
Please join us and share our vision of Europe as a
pioneer of green fiscal policy, green technology and
a green economy!
4 November 2014, Brussels (Belgium):
Become a founding member of GBE, a unique, non-profit
expert platform on environmental fiscal reform
5 November 2014, Brussels (Belgium):
GBE Annual Conference:
Recovery, Jobs and Sustainable Prosperity - A New
Agenda for Green Fiscal Reform in Europe
Including the presentation of the 2014 Environmental
Fiscal Reformer of the Year award.
Please visit our website for further information
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen Source: European Commission, Alert Mechanism Report on macroeconomic imbalances
Overview: The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
7. Umweltaktionsprogramm
Referenz Art. 4 im UAP: „Die Kommission gewährleistet, dass die Umsetzung der relevanten Elemente des 7. UAP im Rahmen des Prozesses der regulären Überwachung der Europa-2020-Strategie überwacht wird. Dieser Prozess stützt sich auf die Indikatoren der Europäischen Umweltagentur zum Zustand der Umwelt sowie auf Indikatoren, die zur Überwachung von Fortschritten bei der Verwirklichung bestehender Rechtsvorschriften auf dem Gebiet des Umwelt- und Klimaschutzes und von Zielen wie Klima- und Energieziele, Biodiversitätsziele und Ressourceneffizienz-Meilensteine verwendet werden.“
Derzeit noch unklar, wie Art. 4 umgesetzt werden soll: Frage an MS und EU-KOM
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Enhancing EFR implementation at EU and national level through the European Semester – 25/09/2014 – GCET Copenhagen
331
Source: Cambridge Econometrics E3ME model
Energy tax reform is the least damaging
of the three options considered
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ch
an
ge i
n G
DP
fro
m b
aseli
ne, %
Energy tax Direct Indirect
Figure 4. Energy tax reform cap has a smaller
negative impact on GDP than a direct tax
Figure 5. And no worse employment impact
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ch
an
ge
in
em
plo
ym
en
tfr
om
bas
eli
ne, %
Energy tax Direct Indirect
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STRENGTHENING THE DEMOCRATIC LEGITIMACY OF THE EUROPEAN SEMESTER
Source: Vivid Economics: http://www.foes.de/internationales/green-budget-europe/gbe-projekte/cetrie/?lang=en
Reform proposals energy tax curve – the reform proposals aim for a consistent carbon price across most emissions Transport fuels are an exception as they cause further externalities
Residential // Natural Gas; Residential
//Coal € 0
Residential // Heat, € 12
Commercial and public services // Electricity,
€ 20
Residential // Electricity, € 20
Agriculture/forestry // Gas/diesel oil, € 94
Road // Motor gasoline, € 180
Road // LPG, € 166
Road // diesel, € 155
0
50
100
150
200
250
To
tal im
plied
tax r
ate
, €/t
CO
2
Emissions from energy consumption, tCO2
2012 Taxes (including EU ETS)
2020 Proposed Taxes
Source: Vivid Economics