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ENHANCING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS THROUGH
EXCELLENCE IN EVALUATION
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SEMI-ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORTJune 2019
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OVERVIEW
1. Annual Performance Report 2019: Focus on Sustainable Transport
2. Value for Money Analysis of GEF Interventions in Support of SFM
3. Evaluation of GEF Support to Scaling Up Impacts
4. Evaluation Work in Progress
5. Knowledge Management
6. Management Action Record
7. Peer Review of the Independent Evaluation Function
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ANNUAL PERFORMANCE REPORT 2019
SPECIAL FOCUS ON SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
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PERFORMANCE
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Outcomes
PERFORMANCE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5
73%
Projects with satisfactory outcomes
GEF
82%79% 78%87%
80%
GEF overall 80% (n=1546)
2019 cohort 78% (n=187)
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Quality
PERFORMANCE
Realized
Cofinancing
Implementation
80% 83%
GEF overall 2019 cohort
80% 77%
GEF overall 2019 cohort
Execution
GEF overall 2019 cohort
6.1:1 6.5:1
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Monitoring and Evaluation
PERFORMANCE
Continued improvement in
M&E design
Modest improvement in
M&E implementation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 2 40%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 2 4GEF
GEF
GEF overall 65%
2019 cohort 80%
GEF overall 65%
2019 cohort 70%
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SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
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Portfolio ($500 million in GEF funds, 80 projects)
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
Relevant to countries’ needs and SDG 11
Share in urban
population
GEF transport
portfolio
15% 13%
56% 56%
11% 9%
18% 22%
Africa
Asia
ECA
LAC
Evolved from low carbon technologies to
integrated approaches
H2
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Performance
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
70%72%
Satisfactory outcomes
(n=32)Likely sustainable
(n=30)
GHG emissions abatement
lower than expected at project
start (n=20)
95.1 Mt CO2
27.4 Mt CO2
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Outcomes
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
Transformed markets
in China, Malaysia, South AsiaContributed to establishing BRT
in cities in Mexico and Tanzania
Promoted
non-motorized transitPromoted TOD when efforts aligned
with the vision of the local leadership
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Value added by GEF projects (n=80)
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
10%of projects
Increasing scale
20%of projects
Increasing viability
24%of projects
Speeding up
implementation
Mainstreaming sustainable
transport approaches
73%of projects
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GEF’s Comparative Advantage and Future Considerations
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
CONTEXT
1. Increasing demand
for sustainable
transport
2. Need for integrated
approaches and
specific transport
sector approaches
RELEVANT AND
VALUED SUPPORT
3. Urban and transport
planning
4. Legal, policy,
regulatory measures
5. Capacity
development
EMERGING
OPPORTUNITIES
5. Autonomous
vehicles and ride
share
6. Technical solutions
for transit efficiency
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Recommendations
1. M&E design should be consistent with the project’s theory of change
Methodology to assess GHG emissions abatement
Process, behavioral change, policy reform indicators
Track the incremental GHG benefits from GEF funding
2. GEF should continue to prioritize funding for capacity development, urban and
transport planning, and policy and regulatory development
GEF should restrict support for civil works to pilot /
demonstration activities
SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
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VALUE FOR MONEY ANALYSIS OF GEF
INTERVENTIONS IN SUPPORT OF
SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT
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GEF SFM projects
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
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Methodology
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
Precise geolocation
Satellite data
Integration with socio-economic data
Causal trees machine learning
Estimation of carbon sequestered
➢ Analysis both at portfolio level, and case study at country level
➢ Novel approach to address data gaps through integration of satellite data with local survey data (Uganda)
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Key Findings : Regional Focus
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
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Key Findings : Relevance
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
➢ GEF SFM projects were implemented in
geographic locations with very high
initial conditions of deforestation.
➢ GEF projects were appropriately more
focused on areas with environmental
degradation as compared to areas with
poor socio-economic
conditions (proxied by night lights).
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Key Findings : Impacts on Deforestation and Carbon Sequestered
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
Areas with GEF SFM interventions have approximately 0.27% less deforestation each year than similar areas without the GEF
$727,900Average value of above-ground
carbon sequestered annually by
each project
1.33 tonsof carbon sequestered per
hectare/ year
$1.17/$1.00 per year
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Key Findings : Socioeconomic Co-benefits
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
➢ Neutral to slightly positive impact of GEF interventions at the portfolio level on socioeconomic benefits as proxied by nighttime lights
➢ In Uganda households in proximity to GEF SFM interventions have approximately $310 USD more in Household Assets as compared to households further away.
Positive Correlation with GEF, not causation
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Factors affecting outcomes of GEF Interventions
Low Population density, low urbanization(GEF more effective)
Lower temperature(GEF more effective)
Steep slope, high temperatures(GEF less effective)
High initial tree cover(GEF more effective)
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
Avoiding Deforestation
Vegetation Density Carbon Sequestration
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Improve geographic precision in recording and reporting
Capture socioeconomic co-benefits of interventions
Select projects or programs to improve the evidence base
Recommendations
SFM: VALUE FOR MONEY
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EVALUATION OF GEF SUPPORT TO
SCALING UP IMPACT
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A series on how the GEF achieves impact
SCALING-UP
2019
TRANSFORMATIONAL
CHANGE
2017
SUSTAINABILITY
2018
INNOVATION
2020
SCALING UP IMPACT
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Why study scaling-up?
This is the first evaluation to look at scaling-up in the GEF in-depth
DONOR DEMAND
GEF VISION & PROGRAMMING
IAPsImpact
Programs
HISTORICAL SHIFT IN THE GEF
GEF IEO INDICATOR OF PROGRESS TOWARDS IMPACT
SCALING UP IMPACT
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Objective
To draw lessons from past GEF experience and the experience
of Agencies and other sectors that can help the GEF more
systematically achieve its scaling-up vision
SCALING UP IMPACT
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Method
PORTFOLIO OF ALL GEF PROJECTS
PORTFOLIO OF GEF PROJECTS INTENDING
TO SCALE UP
60 CASESsuccessful & unsuccessful
scaling-up outcomes
*shapes not sized to scale!
20 CASES
POSITIVE quantitative
outcomes + info on
factors and conditions
PURPOSIVE
APPROACH
✓ Reviews of literature & GEF documents
✓ Interviews at corporate & country level
✓ Written survey✓ Portfolio review✓ Field visits
SCALING UP IMPACT
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How we define scaling-up
ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC, or GOVERNANCE
Increasing Magnitude Expanding Geographical or Sectoral Areas
of Global Environmental Benefits to cover a defined
unit A PROCESS!
SCALING UP IMPACT
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What successful scaling-up cases looked like
Typically Long-term
Wide Range of GEF Grant Amount
Multiple Modalities
Scaling-up Stage > Pilot Stage
Higher Environmental Outcomes
and Sequence Types
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The GEF’s niche in the scaling-up process
PILOT
FOR
PROOF OF
CONCEPT
PILOT IN
SPECIFIC
CONTEXT
PILOT FOR
SCALING-UP
SCALING-UP
TIME
GEF Agencies play different
roles in scaling-up
GEF grants are used to
show evidence of benefits
SCA
LE O
F IM
PAC
T
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Motivated adoption at multiple stakeholder
levels
Sustained support and learning for adaptability
& cost-effectiveness
Chose the right influencers and institutions to work with
Leveraged the right conditions at the right time
The GEF funds ENABLING CONDITIONS that favorably shift
CONTEXTUAL FACTORS towards scaling-up
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How the GEF helps sustain the scaling-up process
Institutional capacity-building + sustainable financing
COSTA RICA MACEDONIA
❖ Strengthened PES agency❖ Capitalized BD trust fund❖ Now 100% funded by
government
❖ Provided PCB treatment technology and training
❖ Now 100% run by private sector
SCALING UP IMPACT
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How the GEF helps sustain the scaling-up process
SCALING UP IMPACT
HOW SGP HELPS SCALE UP IMPACT
MAURITIUS
❖ Studies and awareness campaigns funded through multiple SGP projects with major partners over 16 years
❖ Now 100% funded by government
Local Official Tells Story of Scaled-up Octopus Ban
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Recommendations for more systematic scaling-up
SCALING UP IMPACT
The GEF partnership needs to ensure that factors influencing
scaling up are identified and taken into account,
as appropriate, in project design and implementation,
and their impact assessed at midterm and in terminal evaluations
Clear articulation of how project/program will achieve
or contribute to scaling up
Projects or programs related by design should have
common indicators to facilitate aggregation
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Evaluations Underway
EVALUATION WORK IN PROGRESS
Fall 2019
Strategic Country Cluster Evaluations:
▪ African Biomes
▪ LDCs
▪ SIDS
Spring 2020
Evaluation of GEF Engagement in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations
Evaluation of GEF Support to Sustainable Forest Management
Evaluation of GEF Medium-Sized Projects
GEF Support for Innovation: Findings and Lessons from GEF Interventions
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Knowledge Management
Evaluative lessons Knowledge sharing Evaluation
networks
Expanded Constituency
Workshops – focus on
sustainability
Third International
Conference on Evaluating
Environment and
Development
Evaluation in Difficult
Contexts and Hard-to-Reach
Areas
KNOWLEDGE AND LEARNING
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Management action record
Joint GEF-UNDP Small Grants
Program Evaluation
Evaluation of the
GEF CSO NetworkAnnual Performance
Report 2015
Review of GEF’s
Engagement with
Indigenous Peoples
Review of GEF Policy on Minimum
Standards on Environmental and
Social Safeguards
Program Evaluations of LDCF
and SCCF
MAR
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PROFESSIONAL PEER REVIEW OF
THE INDEPENDENT EVALUATION FUNCTION OF
THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY
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Purpose and use
PEER REVIEW
To enhance IEO’s impact and strengthen its role as an
independent evaluator
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Scope and criteria
PEER REVIEW
Scope of the Review
Independence
Relevance
Policy
IEO Role and Contribution
Efficiency and Effectiveness
Core Assessment Criteria
Independence
Credibility
Utility
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Panel
PEER REVIEW
Ms. Saraswathi Menon,
former Director of UNDP
Independent Evaluation
Office and past-Chair of
UNEG (Panel Chair)
Mr. Marvin Taylor-Dormond,
Director General,
Independent Evaluation,
Asian Development Bank
Mr. Michael Spilsbury, Director of Evaluation, UNEP
Ms. Tullia Aiazzi,
Lead Adviser to the
Panel
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Apr’19 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan’20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun
PEER REVIEW
Recruitment of Adviser, provision of documents
Initial meeting of the Panel
Desk Review
Meeting of the Panel
Interview guides
Interviews
Country visits
Panel meeting with GEF Council members
Meeting of the Panel
Draft report
Review of the draft report
Final version of the report
Presentation to
the Council
Process and Schedule
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SEMI-ANNUAL EVALUATION REPORTJune 2019
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RECOMMENDED COUNCIL DECISION
The Council, having reviewed the ”Semi-Annual Evaluation Report of the GEF Independent Evaluation Office:
June 2019”, endorses the recommendations of the Annual Performance Report 2019: Special Thematic Focus
on Sustainable Transport and the Value for Money Analysis of GEF Interventions in Support of Sustainable
Forest Management and approves the Terms of Reference for the Professional Peer Review of the Independent
Evaluation Office.
With respect to the Evaluation of GEF Support to Scaling up Impact, the Council notes with appreciation the
analysis presented and endorses the following recommendation:
The GEF partnership needs to ensure that factors influencing scaling up are identified and taken into account
in project and program design and implementation, and their impact assessed at midterm and in terminal
evaluations.