-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
1/134
Monitoring the pulse of the
ENGINEERING*
profession
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
2/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 2
Engineering Labour Market Tracking System
Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018Final Report, September 1, 2010
ReportOutline
ExecutiveSummary.....................................................................................................................4
1. BackgroundandIntroduction................................................................................................16
2. LabourMarketAssessments.................................................................................................22
A Canada.................................................................................................................................24
CivilEngineers Canada........................................................................................................27
Mechanical Engineers Canada..........................................................................................30
Electrical and Electronics Engineers Canada..................................................................33
Chemical Engineers Canada..............................................................................................36
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers Canada...........................................................39
Petroleum Engineers Canada............................................................................................42
Aerospace Engineers Canada...........................................................................................45
Computer (except software engineers) Engineers Canada............................................48
All Other Engineers Canada..............................................................................................51
Total Engineers Canada.....................................................................................................55
B British Columbia................................................................................................................60
Total Engineers British Columbia.....................................................................................61
C Alberta................................................................................................................................64
Civil Engineers Alberta......................................................................................................65
Electrical, Mechanical and Chemical Engineers Alberta .................................................68
Petroleum Engineers Alberta...........................................................................................71
Other Engineers Alberta....................................................................................................74
D Saskatchewan....................................................................................................................81
TotalEngineers Saskatchewan............................................................................................82
E Manitoba.............................................................................................................................85
TotalEngineers Manitoba...................................................................................................86
F Ontario................................................................................................................................89
Civil Engineers Ontario......................................................................................................91
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
3/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 3
Mechanical Engineers Ontario..........................................................................................94
Electrical and Electronics Engineers Ontario..................................................................
97
Industrial Engineers Ontario..........................................................................................100
All Other Engineers Ontario............................................................................................103
Engineers Total Ontario..................................................................................................106
GQuebec..............................................................................................................................110
CivilEngineersQuebec.....................................................................................................112
MechanicalEngineers Quebec..........................................................................................115
ElectricalEngineers Quebec..............................................................................................118
OtherEngineers Quebec...................................................................................................121
TotalEngineers
Quebec
....................................................................................................
124
HAtlanticCanada.................................................................................................................128
3. ConclusionsandImplications..............................................................................................132
*ThetermENGINEERINGisanofficialmarkheldbytheCanadianCouncilofProfessional
Engineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
4/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 4
ExecutiveSummary
EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand
TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008. Thetrackingsystemhasbeenupdatedin2010based
onneweconomic,industryanddemographicprojectionsandinputfromProvincialLabour
MarketInformationCommittees1.
Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandprovidesanassessment
ofconditionsthatwillassistindustrystakeholdersincluding:
Employersandrecruiters
Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants
Facultyandmanagersofpostsecondaryprograms
Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour
marketprograms
Provincialengineering
associations
TheEngineersCanadasystemtrackstrendsinlaboursupplyanddemandacrossrecenthistory
andaddsanewprojectionfrom2010to2018. Thesetrendscoveraperiodofgrowingsupply
earlyinthelastdecadeasasurgeofimmigrationarrived. Since2001immigrationhasdeclined
rapidlywhilegraduationsfromengineeringprogramshaveincreasedslowly. Overthisperiod
supplyhasslowlymoveddowntolineupwithdemand. Thisbalancewasinterruptedbythe
recessionin2009asjobcutsweakenedmarkets.
Mostmarketstrendbacktobalanceacrossthescenariofrom2010to2018. Keyexceptions
emergeforoccupationswherelabourrequirementsaredrivenbyolderageprofilesandhigh
levelsofretirementorwhereastrongeconomiccycleincreasesordecreasesemployment. This
reportdescribesthecomponentsofsupplyanddemandandprospectsforrecruitingandjob
search.
Thesystemisbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosfor:
Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries
Employmentinengineeringoccupations
GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs
Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations
Retirementandmortalityinengineers
Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof
engineersacrossindustries. Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa
scenariofrom2010to2018. Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby
theCentreforSpatialEconomics.2
1These committees were organized and invited to comment on an early draft by; Association of
Professional Engineers and Geologists in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New
Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Professional Engineers of Ontario, Ontario Society of Professional Engineers,
Ordre des Ingenieurs du Quebec, Reseau des Ingenieurs du Quebec.2See the C4SE January 2010 Provincial Economic Forecast, Centre for Spatial Economics
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
5/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 5
Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement
demands)toestimatechanginglabourrequirements. Theseestimatesarecomparedto
increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration.
Excesssupplyisdefinedasthedifferencebetweensupplyandlabourrequirements.
Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingonascalefrom1to5with1
representingaveryweakmarketand5atightmarket.
Rankings & Description
1Significantexcessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadian
experience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.
2
ExcessofsupplyoverdemandNo difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadian
experience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. Thegeographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1.
3
ModeratesupplypressuresDifficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, withindustry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required tofill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted.
Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market andreimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 0-5 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.
4
SignificantsupplypressuresDifficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labourmarket. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labourmarket and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generally
obliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitmentdifficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase their
outsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment withengineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delaysand compensation-driven cost escalations.
5
SupplyconstraintsSystemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common amonglarge employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacity
and that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work toqualified consultancies with a known track record.
RankingssummarizethefindingsfornationalmarketsandforBritishColumbia,Alberta,
Saskatchewan,Manitoba,Ontario,QuebecandAtlanticCanada.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
6/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 6
NationalFindings
ExhibitES1reportstherankingsfornineengineeringoccupations.
ExhibitES1LabourMarketRankingsNationalSummary
Labour MarketRankings -Summary
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civil engineers 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Mechanicalengineers
2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4
Electrical andelectronics
2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Chemical 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Industrial andManufacturing
2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Petroleum 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
Aerospace 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4
Computer 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
All Other 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3
Total Engineers 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4
KeyPoints:
Therecessionweakenedmarketsin2009asjobcutsunderminedlabourrequirements.
OverallemploymentforengineersinCanadaregainslostgroundduring2010;returning
toprerecessionlevelsduring2011.
Amodestdropingraduationscombinedwithstablebutlowlevelsofimmigrationto
limittheriseinexcesssupplyin2009andbalancemarketsin2010
Astrongrecoveryinmanufacturingandrelatedactivityfrom2010to2014increases
employmentformechanical,electrical,chemical,industrialandotherdisciplines;
o Theavailable
workforce
in
industrial
and
manufacturing
engineering
was
reducedbyweakeningdemandsince2005andlargedeclinesinpermanent
immigrationoverthepastdecade.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
7/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 7
Labourrequirementsincreasemoderatelyinothersectors(e.g.government,
construction)later
in
the
scenario.
GraduationsfromCEABprogramswillrisein2011andthensustainhigherlevels;
meetingthelabourrequirementslaterinthescenario.
Datareliabilityisaconcernforsomesmallermarketsinparticularforpetroleum
engineers.
Retirementsandtheageprofileofeachworkforcedriveslabourrequirementslaterin
thescenario,
Levelsofimmigrationandgraduationestablishedinthe20082009periodarelikely
sufficienttobalancemarketsacrossthecomingdecade
Rankingsmeasuregeneralconditionsandmaynotreflecttightorweakconditionsfor
specificoccupations
and
regions.
Marketconditionswillvarydependingontheexperienceleveloftheengineer. Note
thatarankingof3signalsdifficultyrecruitingqualifiedengineerswithmorethan5
yearsofCanadianexperience.
Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementsinmanyoccupationswilladdtocurrent
challengesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
8/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 8
BritishColumbia
Exhibit#ES2reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinBritishColumbia. Limited
statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES2 AllEngineers,BC
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Engineers 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Laggingimmigrationcombinedwithemploymentgrowthtotightenmarketsin2007.
Therecessionwassevereandexcesssupplyincreasedtoveryhighlevelsin2008and
2009.
Therecoverywillbestrongin2010and2011,absorbingunemployedand
underemployedengineers.
Immigrationcontinuestofallfasterthanthesteadyriseingraduates:
o Thelimitednumberofnewentrantswilltightenlabourmarketsduringthe
recovery.
Alberta
Exhibit#ES3reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAlberta. Statisticalreliabilityand
independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES3
All
Engineers,
Alberta
Labour MarketRankings -Summary
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civil engineers 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
Mechanical,Electrical,Chemical
2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Petroleum 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3
All Other 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total, All
Engineers2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
9/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 9
Therecessioncutjobsatthesametimeasimmigrationwasrisingandgraduationswere
nearrecord
levels.
Tightmarketsforcivilengineersreflectsteadyemploymentgrowth,theolderage
profileandhigherreplacementdemand.
Marketmeasuresforpetroleumengineersarelessreliablethanotheroccupations.
Balancedmarketswithrankingsof3areconsistentwithshorttermrecruitingchallenges
forspecializedskillsandexperience.
Saskatchewan
Exhibit#ES4reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinSaskatchewan. Limitedstatistical
reliabilityprevents
tracking
more
individual
markets.
ExhibitES4 AllEngineers,Saskatchewan
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Engineers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
SaskatchewanhadoneofthestrongesteconomiesinCanadain2009and2010andthe
recessionhadamorelimitedimpactthere.
Significantemploymentgrowthandlowlevelsofimmigrationkeptlabourmarketstight
in
2009.
Largeindustrialandutilityprojectswillendin2012andmarketsmayweakenlaterin
thescenario.
Moderategrowthandasteadysupplyofnewentrantsmaintainbalancedmarketsover
theforecastperiod.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
10/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 10
Manitoba
Exhibit#ES5reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinManitoba. Limitedstatistical
reliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES5 AllEngineers,Manitoba
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Engineers 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4
Thesharpdeclineinmanufacturingemploymentin2009combinedwiththeabove
averagenumberofnewentrantsin2008resultedinaneasingofmarketconditionsin
2009.
Largeinvestmentsintheutilitiessectorstresstheprovinciallaboursupply,tightening
marketsin2010,andoverthemediumterm.
Asutilitysectorinvestmentswinddownin2014marketsreturntobalanceforthe
remainderoftheforecastperiod.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
11/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 11
Ontario
Exhibit#ES6reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinOntario. Statisticalreliabilityand
independentestimatesallowtrackingforfiveindividualmarkets
ExhibitES6AllEngineers,Ontario
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civil engineers 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Mechanicalengineers
3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4
Electrical andElectronics
2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4
Industrial and
Manufacturing 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
All Other 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total, AllEngineers
2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4
Engineeringlabourmarketswerereturningtomorebalancedconditionsfrom2006to
2008;recoveringfromaninfluxofimmigrantsthatpeakedin2001.
Recessionin2008and2009weakenedmostmarkets.
Therecoveryisgenerallymodestandlabourrequirementsarenotgrowingrapidlyby
historicalstandards,but:
o Manufacturinggrowsoutofadeepslumpwithaperiodofstronginvestment.
o Thischangewillincreasedemandforengineersinrelatedfields.
Attheendofthescenario,from2014to2018,growthislimitedbutreplacement
demandsforretirementsriseandimmigrationisneededtosustainworkforcelevels.
o Retirementswilldominatelabourrequirementslaterinthescenarioandthis
willaggravatedifficultiesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
12/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 12
Quebec
Exhibit#ES7reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinQuebec. Statisticalreliabilityand
independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES7AllEngineers,Quebec
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civil engineers 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4
Mechanical 1 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
Electrical 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
All Other 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
TotalEngineers
2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Tightermarketsforcivilengineersarerelatedtotheolderageprofileandhigher
retirementdemandsforthisoccupation.
Somevariationsinthepatternofenrolmentsandgraduationsmaytemporarilytighten
orweakentheothermarkets.
AtlanticCanada
Exhibit#ES8reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAtlanticCanada. Limited
statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.
ExhibitES8 AllEngineers,AtlanticCanada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Engineers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3
Therecessionhadamildimpactonjobcreationwhilegraduationscontinuetorise.
Recoveryis
strong
enough
to
tighten
the
markets
as
migration
has
fallen.
Overmostoftheprojection,thenumberofgraduatesandarrivingimmigrantsexceeds
labourrequirements.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
13/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 13
FindingsandConclusions
The conclusions drawn by this study reflect both the economic model which underpins
our assessment of current and projected labour market conditions, and the important input
received from validation meetings. These meetings brought an industry perspective to
bear on the conclusions from the economic model.
1. It is clear that there is an asymmetry between the way that employers and
engineers look at the engineering labour and the way that standard economic
statistics describe that market. Both employers and engineers ascribe a high
degree of importance to general business experience, and to specialized, technical
experience. Indeed, experience is so important in the engineering profession that
the measurement of both the supply and the demand for engineers needs to be
parsed in terms of experience categories.
2. It is clear from our analysis of specific engineering labour markets that many ofthese markets are characterized by a surplus of recent graduates, who have little or
no experience, but a shortage of experienced engineers with five or more years of
practical experience and the specialized, experience-based technical skills that
employers require. This concurrence of a labour surplus with a skills shortage
was discussed in the reports produced by the Engineering and Technology Labour
Market Study.3
3. The difficulties that many employers experience in recruiting engineers with
specific experience and skills has led to a sharp increase in the use of foreign-
trained engineers brought into Canada by employers under the Temporary Foreign
Worker program. Increasing the supply of domestic graduates, by itself, will not
address employers skills needs. New graduates are not a substitute for
experienced engineers with 5-10 years of experience and specialized technicalskills.
4. The difficulty that many employers have in recruiting engineers with specialized
skills and experience also has led to an increase in off-shoring. Our analysis
suggests that skill shortages are at least as important as cost factors, if not more
important, in driving the increase in off-shoring.
5. The traditional academic fields of study - civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical -
are just the starting point. As graduates move into specific industries, they evolve
into aerospace, systems, transportation, structural, industrial, manufacturing,
petroleum, and other specialized engineers, to list but a few examples. In some
cases, university curricula now reflect these specializations. In most cases,
however, specializations are developed through experience.
3 Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study, Final Report, Engineers Canada and the Canadian
Council of Technicians and Technology, May, 2009. See Page 1 and Page 8
http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/pub_pr.cfm
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
14/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 14
6. Standard economic statistics which measure supply and demand in the
engineering labour market attach too little weight to experience and to specializedskills and too much weight to generic qualifications. In this report, therefore, it is
common for our analysis to show a balance between supply and demand (a 3
ranking) for the four large (and generic fields), namely, civil, electrical,
mechanical and chemical, but shortages ( a 4 ranking) in the more specialized
fields, e.g., petroleum engineers.
7. The consulting sector which employs a large share of professional engineers
plays a critical role in meeting industrys needs for specialized skills and
developing those skills within the profession. Consulting also promotes the
mobility of these skills across regions and industries.
8. Within the consulting sector, the internationalization of engineering services has
taken on increased importance. This was described in the report Canadas
Consulting Engineering Sector in the International Economy that was part of theEngineering and Technology Labour Market Study.4 A central finding of that
study was that the internationalization of engineering services increased the
premium on specialized skills.
9. This report points to three challenges for the engineering profession.
The first, and most important, is addressing the graduation-to-work transition, or
more specifically, the chronic and serious under-supply of junior engineer jobs which
are also integral to the internship or EIT programs of the provincial and territorial
associations. This situation sets up a contradiction between the interests of each firm
and the engineering industry as a whole. It is rational business strategy for an
individual employer to require 5-10 years experience for new hires, but at the system
level, this business strategy leads to the serious problems that now confront the
profession and employers as a whole. There are no simple solutions to the
graduation-to-work transition challenge, but addressing this challenge must now
become a priority for the profession. This may have implications for
industry/profession relations, government/profession relations, the structuring of
university programs, and the regulation of professional practices.
The second challenge is to better understand the business and specialized skill needs
of industry and reflect those needs in traditional undergraduate and graduate
programs, in combined MBA-engineering programs, in engineering management
programs, and in continuing professional development programs. The profession
may also need to consider options for credentialing specialized skills, as has been
done in other professions, e.g., law.
4 See,
http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/media/Canada's%20Consulting%20Engineering%20Sector%20in%20the%
20International%20Economy1.pdf
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
15/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 15
The third challenge is to facilitate the movement of experienced engineers from
declining sectors when they have lost their jobs into growing sectors. Engineers whohave lost their jobs owing economic restructuring have considerable business
experience, but are likely to lack some of the specialized skills that are needed by
growing sectors.
Improvements to the next update might add insight in these areas and better meet user
needs. Changes might include;
Added market details that track more specializations and new disciplines
including;
o Engineering Managers
Extended consultations with stakeholders and
o The addition of rankings that track conditions for experienced engineers
based on stakeholder input.
Added details tracking licensing and registrations in the Provincial Associationsincluding;
o Engineer in training programs and other internships
o Permanent immigrants with engineering qualifications and temporary
foreign workers securing permanent status
Added details linking employment to engineering consulting including improvedlinks from key industry drivers, imports and exports of engineering services.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
16/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 16
1.BackgroundandIntroduction
EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand
TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008.5 This2010versionofEngineeringLabourMarket
Conditionsupdatesthe2008work;addingdetail,drawingonanewmacroeconomicscenario,
andincludinginputfromaroundofindustryconsultations.
Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandthesearesetoutin
Exhibit#1below. Marketswereselectedbasedontheavailabilityofreliabledataandindustry
input6. Wherepossibletheanalysisaccountsforspecializationandthepotentialforengineers
tomoveacrossdisciplinesastheyaccumulateknowledgeandexperience. Statisticsthatare
usedasabasisformarketanalysisoftendonotmeasurethesecircumstances. Thecommentary
oneachmarketassessmenthighlightswhereconditionsmaybeimpactedbyspecializations,
mobilityandtheexperienceoftheworkforce.
Thesystem
is
designed
to
provide
an
assessment
of
labour
markets
that
would
meet
the
needs
ofseveralindustrystakeholdersincluding:
Employersandrecruiters
Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants
Managersofpostsecondaryprograms
Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour
marketprograms
Provincialengineeringassociations
5
See http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/6Each market assessment requires a reliable statistical foundation that measures the number of engineers at
work. At a minimum these measures are needed for one starting point but a reliable time series is also
important. The Statistics Canada 2006 Census is the critical starting point. Census results are suppressed
or marked as unreliable for many markets. The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey is the main source
for annual trends. Weakness in the reliability of this data further limits the scope of this work.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
17/134
EngineeringLabourMarketConditions2009-2018
PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
17
Exhibit1
Coverage,Occupation
sandRegions
OccupationbyRegionEngineers
Occupation
Canada
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Manitoba
SK
Alberta
BC
1.
Civilengineers
2.
Mechanicalengineers
Mech,Elec,
&Chem
Engineers
3.
Electrical&Electronicsengineers
4.
Chemicalengineers
Other
Engineers
5.
Petroleumengineers
6.
Industrial&Manufacturingengin
eers
Other
Engineers
7.
Aerospaceengineers
Other
Engineers
8.
Computerengineers
9.
OtherEngineersincludingmetallu
rgicalandmaterials,
mining&geologicalengineers
TotalEngineers
Source:Prism
Economics&Analysis
=LabourMarketTracking
=SumofIndividualLabourMarkets
OtherOccupations(residua
l)
Mechanical,electrical&electronic,
&chemicalgrouped
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
18/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 18
Thesystemassesseslabourmarketsbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosforseveral
measures,including:
Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries:
o Manufacturing
o Construction
o Professional,ScientificandManagerialServices
o Utilities
o Government
o PrimaryIndustries
o Otherindustries
Employmentinengineeringoccupations
GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs
Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations
Retirementandmortalityinengineeringoccupations
Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof
engineersacrossindustries. Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa
scenariofrom2010to2018. Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby
theCentreforSpatialEconomics.7
Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement
demands)toestimatedchanginglabourrequirements. Theseestimatesarecomparedto
increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration.
Exhibit#2summarizestheestimateofExcessSupply,akeylabourmarketmeasure.
7See the C4SE Provincial Economics Forecast January 2010, Centre for Spatial Economics
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
19/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 19
Exhibit2Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Summary of Main Components
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
20/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 20
Measures,then,cominglemanyfactorsinthecalculationofexcesssupplyandmarket
assessments. Rankingsareinterpretedcarefullytoreflectthesedifferences.
Rankingsdescribearangeoffivemarketconditions
Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingthroughaweightedaverageof:
ExcessSupplyasa%ofEmployment
Retirementandmortalityasa%oftheLabourForce
Annual%changeinemployment
Industryinput
Rankingsaresetonascalefrom1to5with1representingaveryweakmarketand5tight
markets. Fromtheperspectiveofemployerseachmarketmightbedescribedasfollows:
Rankings & Description
1 SignificantexcessofsupplyoverdemandNo difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadianexperience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.
2Excessofsupplyoverdemand
No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadianexperience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. Thegeographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1
3
Moderate supply pressuresDifficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, with
industry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required tofill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted.Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market andreimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 0-
5 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.
4
SignificantsupplypressuresDifficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labourmarket. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour
market and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generallyobliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitmentdifficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase theiroutsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment with
engineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delaysand compensation-driven cost escalations.
5
SupplyconstraintsSystemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common amonglarge employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacityand that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work to
qualified consultancies with a known track record.
ThesefiverankingsareusedtocharacterizeengineeringlabourmarketsacrossCanadainthe
nextsection.Marketrankingshavebeenpreparedforeachyearfrom2009to2018.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
21/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 21
Readerswhoareinterestedinmoredetailsoneachcomponentofthemarketassessmentare
referredtotheAppendices. AppendixAincludesadescriptionoftheCenterforSpatial
Economic,January2010Provincialforecaststhatserveasthebasisfortheindustrydetailand
engineeringemploymentdrivers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
22/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 22
2. LabourMarketAssessments
Thissectionofthereportdescribesconditionsforthetwentysixlabourmarketssetoutin
Exhibit#1.
Aninitialsummarydescribestheeconomicanddemographicconditionsintheregion. This
isasynopsisoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsscenariosanddescribestheconditions
linkedtotheindustrydriversforemployment.
EachsectionbeginswithExhibit1,anaccountingofthenumberofengineersworkinginthe
market. Theestimatesofengineersemployedaretakenfromthe2006Censusandfrom
analysisfor2009developedbyPrismEconomicsandAnalysis.8 Readersareencouragedto
considertheseestimatesandcommentonanyothersourcesthatmightbeabasisfor
comparison. Theaccuracyoftheseestimatesvariesdependingonthesizeofthemarket.
Exhibit2describes
employment
trends
for
each
market
using
index
numbers
that
track
the
cumulativechangebeginningin2007andrunningto2018. Datafrom2007to2009are
adjustedtoreflectthehistoricaldatafromtheLabourForceSurvey. Estimatesfrom2010to
2018arederivedfromdriverscalculatedfromtheCenterforSpatialEconomicsforecasts.
Graphicsforeachmarketshowthemajordriversandcommentsindicatehowchanging
industryconditionsareimpactingemployment. Theannualchangeinemployment,tracked
ineachgraphic,isakeymeasureoflabourrequirements.
Exhibit3foreachmarketsetsouttherecenthistoryandexpectedtrendsforthreekey
measures.
a. ThenumberofgraduatesfromCEABEngineeringprograms. Datafrom
EngineersCanadaprovidesthehistoryandestimatesfrom2009to2018are
basedonthepatternofregistrations. Theanalysisassumesthatregistrations
andtheassociatedgraduationswillremainconstantatthelevelsreportedfor
2008.
Industrystakeholders
have
observed
that
aproportion
of
graduates
do
notentertheworkforce. Anadjustmentreflectingthistrendreducesthe
numberofgraduatesenteringtheworkforceby30%.
b. ThereportednumberofengineersarrivinginthemarketfromoutsideCanada.
Thisincludesbothpermanentimmigrantsandtemporaryforeignworkers.9The
analysisassumesthatthenumberofarrivalsin2008remainsconstantfrom
2009to2018.Industrystakeholdersobservethattherearedelaysinintegrating
permanentimmigrantsandsomearenotabletofindworkasengineers. An
8 Prism Economics and Analysis has reviewed different estimates of employment, the labour force and
unemployment for engineers in as many markets as possible. Sources include the 2006 Census and the
Labour Force Survey at Statistics Canada. Where reliability is a concern these measures have been
adjusted.9
Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workersare limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging
9
Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workers
are limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging
these workers to remain. It is assumed that half of arriving temporary foreign workers leave after two years
and half remain.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
23/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 23
adjustmentreducesthenumberofpermanentimmigrantsenteringthe
workforceby15%.
c. Thenumberofengineerspermanentlyleavingtheworkforceincluding
retirementandmortality. Theseestimatesbeginwiththe2008ageprofileof
eachgroupage50andoverandcalculatethenumberofexitsbyapplying
mortalityratesandchangesinparticipationratesineachyearfrom2009to
2018. Theresultingestimatesindicatethenumberofengineersneededto
sustainthelabourforceatthestartinglevelin2008.
Exhibit4describesexcesssupplyineachyear. Thismeasureissimilartothechangein
unemploymentandboththenumberandthepercentofemployedareincluded. Asexcess
supplyrisesmarketsaregrowingweaker,recruitingwillbeeasierandjobsearchmoredifficult.
Theseexhibitsprovidealltheinformationincludedintherankingsthatarereportedattheend
ofeachsection. Eachannualrankingcombinesthemeasuresofexcesssupply,thechangein
employment
and
the
proportion
of
the
workforce
retiring
or
dying.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
24/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 24
A Canada
TheEconomy
Thissectionintroducesnationalresultsformajorengineeringlabourmarketsfrom2009to
2018. Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic
backgroundfactors. Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete
writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin
AppendixA.
Therecessionisoverandaslowrecoveryhasstarted. RecoveryisstrongestinAsiaandweakest
inEurope. Canadasrecoveryfromrecessionandlongtermgrowthpotentialdependsonexport
marketsanddomesticproductioncapacity. Duringarecoveryperiodfrom2010to2012both
thesefactorswillencourageeconomicgrowth.
Governmentstimulus,
introduced
in
early
2009
in
most
economies,
has
helped
to
cut
the
recessionshortandspurrecovery. Stimulusspendingoninfrastructureprojectsandin
engineeringrelatedconstructioncontinuesin2010andearly2011. Accelerateddesignand
constructionwillhelpsomeengineeringoccupationsintheshortterm. Butgovernmentdeficits
leavelargedebtburdensthatwillrequirelongtermrestraintingovernmentspendingortax
increases.
Commoditypricesriseastheworldeconomyimproves. Canadasresourceindustriesmay
benefit,especiallyfromopportunitiesinAsia. Buthighercommoditypricesalsocreateupward
pressureoninflation. Inresponse,interestrateswillriseandactasafurtherrestraintonthe
economy.
CanadianandUSeconomicgrowthrisestonear3% abovetheirpotentialduringthe
recoveryperiodin2010and2011. Growthslowslatertotrendratesnear2%. Traditional
CanadianexportmarketsintheUnitedStatesareconstrainedbydemographicandgovernment
financefactors. Canadianeconomicgrowthisincreasinglyconstrainedbylimiteddomestic
labourforcegrowth. Risingimmigrationisassumedacrosstheforecastscenario. Government
policieswillpromotethisandindustryeffortstorecruitandretainnonCanadianworkerswillbe
essentialtosustaininggrowth.
Undertheseconditionsemploymentgrowthwillgenerallybefarbelowhistoricpatterns. Atthe
sametimelabourmarketswilltendtobetighterthaninthepast. Unemploymentwillbewell
belowhistoricallevelsandrecruitingwillbeanongoingchallenge. Theimpactofthese
structuraldemographicsdependsontheageprofileofeachoccupationandregion.
Thesegeneraleconomicconditionsdriveindividualprovincialindustriesandemployment. Six
engineeringintensiveindustriesareidentified.
Manufacturing
Thishasbeentheweakestsectorforatleastadecadeandthemostvulnerableduringthe
recession. Startingfromaverylowbase,therecoverywillbesignificant. Thiswillbeledby
investmentsinnewtechnologyandcapacity. Keymanufacturingindustrieswillprosperduring
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
25/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 25
thenextdecadebasedonnewproductsanddesigns. However,therecoverywillnotregainthe
pastpeaksofoutputuntil2015andoverallmanufacturingemploymentwillnotreturntoearlier
peaklevels.
Utilities
Investmentinnewutilitycapacity,includingresourcebasedprojects,hasbeenaleadingsource
ofactivityforthepastdecadeandisexpectedtoaccelerateintheforecastperiod. New
capacitywillimproveproductivitysothatoverallemploymentgainswillbelimited. Introducing
majornewconstructionprojectsandtechnologieswilladdjobsforengineers.
GovernmentServices
Governmentandinstitutionalinvestmentshavebeenaleadingsourceofactivityoverthepast
decadeandthismomentumcarriesonto2011basedonfiscalstimulusprograms. But
investmentfadesasthestimulusprojectsendandfiscalrestraintsetsin. Employment
opportunitiesingovernmentwillbelimitedoverthescenario.
Construction
Thissectorledtheeconomyforthepastdecadeandwillbenefitfromthestimulusto
infrastructureduring2010. Constructionactivitywillslowdown;laggingbehindothersectors
from2012to2018. Whileemploymentgrowthwillbeslower,therearemanyindustrial,
institutionalandutilityprojectsplannedandimportantopportunitiesareexpected.
Professional,ScientificandManagementServices
Thissectorisamajoremployerforengineersandincludesengineeringconsulting. Activity
tracksthegeneraleconomictrends. Prospectsforconsultingfirms,includingopportunitiesand
challengesinothercountries,maynotbefullyreflectedinthedrivers.
PrimaryIndustries
Thissectorcombinesthediversefortunesofmining,agriculture,forestry,fishingandother
industries.
Investment
and
output
have
lagged
behind
the
general
economy
and
this
is
projectedtocontinue. Specificopportunitiesassociatedwithindividualresources(e.g.potash,
uranium,gold,etc.)maynotbereflectedinthegeneraltrendsforthesedrivers.
OtherIndustries
Thesedriversrepresenttherestoftheeconomyandgrowthtracksthegeneraleconomic
trends. Economicexpansionwillbeheldbackacrossthecomingdecadebythelowergrowthin
populationandthelabourforce.
NationalEngineeringLabourMarkets
Employmentgrowthineachofthenineengineeringoccupationsisakeydriveroflabour
markets. TheEngineeringCanadasystemstartswithemploymentestimatestakenfromthe
2006CensusandthenadjuststheseusingthemonthlyLabourForceSurveytotrack
employmentduringtheyearsafterthecensus. TheLabourForceSurveyisnotareliablesource
forsmaller
markets.
Stakeholders
are
encouraged
to
consider
the
employment
estimates
reportedinExhibitA. Thesevaluesareanimportantstartingpointforthemarketassessments
tofollow.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
26/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 26
ExhibitAEmploymentHistoryCanada
Labour Market 2006c 2009e
(Census) (Estimated Trend)
Civil engineers 44680 45029
Mechanical engineers 38015 38612
Electrical and electronics 34340 35325
Chemical 9755 9528
Industrial and Manufacturing 20220 20321
Petroleum 9830 11900
Aerospace 5740 4992
Computer 26760 25676
All Other10095 8412
Total, All Engineers 199435 199795
Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis
KeyPoints:
Theseestimatesarebasedonhouseholdsurveyswhereindividualsidentifytheir
occupation. Thereisnoverificationofcredentialsorqualifications.
Civil,mechanicalandelectricalengineeringaccountforoverhalfofemployment.
Theallothercategoryincludesmetallurgicalandmaterials,mining,geologicalandother
engineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
27/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 27
CivilEngineers Canada
ExhibitA1.1
Civil
Engineers,
Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentofCivilEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyinvestmentandoutputinProfessional,
ScientificandManagementServices(includingengineeringconsulting)andConstruction.
Joblossesin2009insomeindustrieswerepartlyoffsetbyincreasesintheGovernment
Servicessector:
o Gainsarerelatedtotheshortterminfrastructureandotherstimulusprograms
Employmenttracksmostcloselywithconstructionandprofessional,scientificand
managementservicesthetwolargestsingleemployersofcivilengineers.
Civilengineersaremoreconcentratedinprofessional,scientificandmanagement(including
engineeringconsulting)servicesthanotheroccupations. Thismightprotectthemfrom
cyclicalvariationsinemployment.
Cumulativeemploymentgrowthfrom2009to2018isbelowtheaverageforallengineers.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial
Growth CivilEngineers
AllCivilEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
GovernmentServices Construction
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
28/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 28
ExhibitA1.2CivilEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures -Civil engineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the Labour Force* 1184 1209 1229 1315
Immigrants** 1041 1043 1059 997
Replacement Demand (#)*** 741 1122 1018 1085
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.5 2.1 2.1 2.5
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
o Additionstoenrolmentsinpostsecondaryprogramshavegraduallyraised
graduationsandthesewillrisetoapeakin2012
o Overthesameperiodthenumberofpermanentimmigrantshasdeclinedandthisis
offsetbyamodestgainintemporaryforeignworkers.
o Theageprofileforthisoccupationisolderthantheaverageforallengineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
29/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 29
ExhibitA1.3CivilEngineers,Canada
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Onbalanceadditionstotheworkforcefallshortoflabourrequirementsandexcesssupply
fallsacrossthescenario.
Lowexcesssupplyisrelatedtotheolderageprofile,retirementsandrelativelylow
registrationsinpostsecondaryprogramscomparedtootherdisciplines.
Thereis
little
cyclical
variation
after
2010
and
this
may
be
linked
to
trends
in
professional,
scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)activity.
Selfemploymentinconsultingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices
(includingengineeringconsultingservices)mayoffertemporaryworkforthisgroupinweak
markets.
ExhibitA1.4CivilEngineersCanada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Civil engineers 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
KeyPoints:
Lowexcesssupplyandtheolderageprofilecontributetohighrankingslaterinthe
scenario.
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaCivilEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
30/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 30
MechanicalEngineers Canada
ExhibitA2.1 MechanicalEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentofMechanicalEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyoutput,investmentand
employmentinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering
consultingservices),manufacturingandutilitiesindustries.
MechanicalEngineershavethegreatestconcentrationinmanufacturingandaremore
vulnerabletotherecessionaswellasmorelikelytobenefitfromtherecovery.
Cyclicaljoblossesin2009mayhavebeenpartlyoffsetbyselfemploymentinconsultingand
theprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting
services)industry.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial
Growth MechanicalEngineers
AllMechanicalEngineers Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial Utilities
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
31/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 31
ExhibitA2.2 MechanicalEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Mechanical engineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
1859 2063 1811 2036
Immigrants** 1406 1117 1069 1066
Replacement Demand (#)*** 569 814 739 814
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.2 1.8 1.8 2.2
Source: StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
EnrolmentsinCEABprogramshaveincreasedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeand
graduationswillreachapeakin2012.
Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyfallingby75%to2008.
Recentincreasesintemporaryforeignworkershaveonlypartiallyoffsetlossesto
permanentimmigration.
Canadiangraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsarethelargestsourceofentrantstothe
workforce.
Theageprofileformechanicalengineersisclosetotheaverageforallengineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
32/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 32
ExhibitA2.3MechanicalEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Excesssupplyisstableandconsistentwithbalancedmarkets.
Supplythroughbothimmigrationandpostsecondaryprogramsareconsistentlyaheadof
labourrequirements.
ExhibitA2.4MechanicalEngineers,Canada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mechanicalengineers
2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4
KeyPoints:
Marketstightenbrieflyastherecoveryinmanufacturingreachesapeakin2012.
Retirementswillcreatechallengesrecruitingexperiencedengineerslaterinthescenario.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaMechanicalEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
33/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 33
ElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Canada
ExhibitA3.1 ElectricalandElectronics Engineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentofElectricalEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandemploymentin
utilities,professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting
services)andmanufacturingindustries.
Currenteconomicconditionspullemploymentindifferentdirectionswithmanufacturing
reducingandutilityinvestmentincreasingopportunities.
Utilityrelatedactivitypeaksin2014;noadditionalemploymentisapparentlaterinthe
scenario.
Longtermtrendssuggestgrowthbelowaverageforallengineers.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
In
dex2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
ElectricalEngineers
AllElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Manufacturing
Utilities Professional,Scientific,Managerial
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
34/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 34
ExhibitA3.2 ElectricalandElectronics Engineers,Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures- Electrical and Electronics
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
1678 1656 1436 1587
Immigrants** 1501 730 701 988
Replacement Demand (#)*** 710 575 621 723
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.1 1.6 1.6 2.1
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
Key
Points:
Enrolmenttrendsandassociatedgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramshavebeenflat
withonlymoderatechangesacrossthelastdecade.
Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedacrossthedecadeandthearrivaloftemporaryforeign
workershasalsodeclined.
Theageprofileforelectricalengineersisclosetotheaverage.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
35/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 35
ExhibitA3.3Electrical andElectronicsEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithcurrenttrendsinimmigrationandpost
secondaryenrolmentstosustainnormallevelsofexcesssupply.
ExhibitA3.4Electrical andElectronicsEngineers,Canada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Electrical andElectronics
2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
KeyPoints:
Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithsupplysidetrendstoleavelabourmarkets
inbalanceastherecoveryunfolds.
Retirementslaterinthescenariowilladdtolabourrequirementsandrecruiting
experiencedengineerswillbeachallenge.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaElectricalandElectronicsEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment (2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
36/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 36
ChemicalEngineers Canada
ExhibitA4.1ChemicalEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentofChemicalEngineersisdrivenbyemploymentinprofessional,scientificand
managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)andmanufacturing
industries.
Declinesin2009wereweigheddownbyasharpdeclineinmanufacturing.
Longtermprospectsarelimitedbyopportunitiesinmanufacturing.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
ChemicalEngineers
AllChemicalEngineers Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
37/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 37
ExhibitA4.2 ChemicalEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures- Chemical
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
642 721 659 721
Immigrants** 448 455 471 434
Replacement Demand (#)*** 142 187 173 191
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.1 1.7 1.7 2.0
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Trendsin
enrolment
and
graduations
have
been
cyclical
but
on
arising
trend.
Graduations
reachedapeakin2008butwilldeclinein2009and2010. Enrolmentpatternswillcreatea
newpeakin2011and2012.
Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeandgainsintemporary
foreignworkershavenotreplacedtheselosses.
Theageprofileisaverage.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
38/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 38
ExhibitA4.3ChemicalEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Recessionandweaknessinmanufacturingdriveupexcesssupplyin2009andconditionsare
slowtoimprove.
Theexpectedincreaseingraduationsin2011and2012willaddtoexcesssupplyandlargely
balancelabourrequirementsacrossthescenario.
ExhibitA4.4ChemicalEngineers,Canada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chemical 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
KeyPoints:
LabourmarketswillbebalancedwithCEABprogramslargelyreplacingimmigrationasthe
primarysourceofchemicalengineers.
Difficultiesrecruiting
experienced
engineers
may
persist
under
these
conditions.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaChemicalEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
39/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 39
IndustrialandManufacturingEngineers Canada
ExhibitA5.1IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Employmentopportunitiesaredrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandoutputinthe
manufacturingindustry.
Sharpdeclineinmanufacturingcushionedsomewhatbyprofessional,scientificand
managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)sector.
Recoveryinmanufacturingisrelatedtoinvestmentinnewtechnologiesandengineerswill
playakeypartinthis.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
IndustrialEngineers
AllIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers
Manufacturing
Professional,Scientific,Managerial
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
40/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 40
ExhibitA5.2 IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada
Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Industrial andManufacturing
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
365 306 311 300
Immigrants** 586 450 440 472
Replacement Demand (#)*** 314 251 278 390
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
Key
Points:
Theworkforceforindustrialandmanufacturingengineersgrowsasengineersfromother
disciplines(e.g.mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry.
EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe
workforce.
ImmigrantshaveoutnumberedCanadiangraduatesasentrantsintotheworkplace.
Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedfromapeakin2000whilethenumberoftemporary
foreignworkershasbeenmaintained.
Immigrationhaskepttheaverageoftheworkforcewellbelowaverage.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
41/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 41
ExhibitA5.3 IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Therecoveryofthemanufacturingsectorandtherelianceonnewtechnologieswillreduce
theexcesssupplyoftheseoccupations.
ExhibitA5.4
Industrial
and
Manufacturing,
Canada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Industrial andManufacturing
2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
KeyPoints:
Chroniclabourshortageswillcontinueacrossthescenariogiventhecurrentlevelsof
immigrationandpostsecondaryenrolments.
Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese
groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket.
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000
1500
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
42/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 42
PetroleumEngineers Canada
ExhibitA6.1PetroleumEngineers
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentofPetroleumEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyInvestmentandemploymentin
professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)
andprimaryindustries.
TheStatisticsCanadaLabourForceSurvey(LFS)reportsextremelystronggrowthbetween
20072009:
o Nationalgainsarenotconsistentwithregionaldata.
o Analysissuggeststhatestimatesmaynotbereliable.
80
85
90
95100
105
110
115
120
125
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
PetroleumEngineers
AllPetroEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
TotalPrimary
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
43/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 43
ExhibitA6.2 Petroleum
Demographic Supply Side Measures- Petroleum
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
48 59 52 69
Immigrants** 108 120 160 145
Replacement Demand (#)*** 136 274 263 233
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Thepetroleumengineeringworkforcegrowsasengineersfromotherdisciplines(e.g.
mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry.
EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe
workforce.
ImmigrationfarexceedstheCanadianpostsecondarysystemasasourceforthisworkforce.
Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)havefallenfarbelowpeaklevelsandmodest
gainsinpostsecondaryenrolmentshavenotkeptpace.
Theageprofileforpetroleumengineersisclosetothenationalaverageforallengineers
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
44/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 44
ExhibitA6.3 Petroleum
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Theworkforceinthisoccupationmayincludemechanical,chemicalandotherengineers
whoworkintheindustryandhavedevelopedexpertiseaspetroleumengineers.
Measuresofexcesssupplymaynotbereliablebecauseofsuspectemploymentestimates.
ExhibitA6.4Petroleum
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Petroleum 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
KeyPoints:
Rankingsarelikelynotreliableduetosuspectemploymentestimates.
Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese
groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaPetroleumEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
45/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 45
Aerospace Engineers Canada
ExhibitA7.1AerospaceEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Employmentfor
aerospace
engineers
is
driven
primarily
by
investment
and
output
in
manufacturingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering
consultingservices)industries. Themorespecializednatureofthisoccupationmakesbroad
indicatorsformanufacturinglessreliable. Strengthintheaerospacesectormightnotbe
adequatelyreflectedinthebroadereconomicmeasures.
Datafor2009showlittlechangeinemploymentwhilethekeyindustrialdriversdeclined.
Prospectsforrecoveryarestrongbutemploymenthasbeenvolatileandonadownward
trendforaerospaceengineersforovertenyears.
Employmentdoesnotregainpeaklevelsachievedin1997until2013.
Themanufacturingrecoveryislinkedtotheadoptionofnewtechnologieswithleadership
fromengineers.
Thisgrouphasthestrongestoverallemploymentgrowthfornationaloccupations.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ind
ex2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
AerospaceEngineers
AllAerospaceEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
46/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 46
ExhibitA7.2 AerospaceEngineers, Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures Aerospace
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
139 125 115 122
Immigrants** 75 224 226 152
Replacement Demand (#)*** 93 73 86 85
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)peakedwithemploymentinthelate1990s
anddeclineduntil2007:
o Abigincreaseisreportedinthearrivaloftemporaryforeignworkersin2008.
EnrolmentsandgraduationfromCanadianpostsecondaryprogramshassteadilyimproved
buthasnotyetfilledthegapleftbydecliningimmigration.
Highlevelsofimmigrationhelptokeeptheageprofilebelownormal.
Deleted: -
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
47/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 47
ExhibitA7.3 AerospaceEngineers, Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Therecessionseemstohavecausedapauseinemploymentgrowth.
Asurgeintemporaryimmigrationhasbalancedmarkets.
Halfofthetemporaryforeignworkerswhoarrivedin2008areassumedtoleavethe
workforceoverthenearfuture;levelsofpermanentimmigrationandgraduationsarenot
sufficienttomeetlabourrequirementsduringtherecoveryphasefrom2010to2013.
ExhibitA7.4AerospaceEngineers,Canada
Labour MarketRankings -Summary
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aerospace 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4
KeyPoints:
Labourmarketswillbetightastheprojectedmanufacturingrecoveryunfolds.
Laboursupplybeginstocatchupwithdemandtowardstheendofthescenario.
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
600
400
200
0
200
400
600
800
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaAerospaceEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment (2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
48/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 48
Computer(exceptsoftwareengineers)Engineers Canada
ExhibitA8.1ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
EmploymentbyComputerEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentinprofessional,
scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry.
Therecessionhasalimitedimpactwithaslightdeclinein2009,thensteadygrowththrough
2018.
TheITbubbledroveemploymenttoapeakin20002001andthendeclinedin2003
2004. Growthhasbeensteadysincethen.
Overthescenarioemploymentgrowthforcomputerengineersexceedstheaverageforall
engineers.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index
2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
ComputerEngineers
AllComputerEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
49/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 49
ExhibitA8.2 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures Computer
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
1082 964 412 957
Immigrants** 731 612 694 688
Replacement Demand (#)*** 138 213 211 318
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Graduatesfromcomputerengineeringprogramsrosetoapeakin2004andhavebeen
decliningsincethen.
Permanentimmigrationandtemporaryforeignworkershavebeendecliningsince2001.
Thegeneralrelianceonimmigrationfornewentrantshaskepttheaverageageofthe
workforcewellbelowtheaverageforallengineers.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
50/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 50
ExhibitA8.3 ExhibitA8.2 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Labourmarketsweretightfrom2005to2007asemploymentrevivedwhilesupply
continuedtodeclineinreactiontotheITbust.
Employmentweakenedin2008and2009allowingimmigrationandgraduationsto
overshoot.
Therecoveryinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering
consultingservices)andmanufacturingwillreduceexcesssupplyinthefaceoflow
immigrationandgraduations.
Labourrequirements
grow
more
slowly
later
in
the
scenario
as
retirements
are
limited
and
employmentgrowthsettlesdowntotrendratesfortheeconomy.
ExhibitA8.4 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Computer 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
KeyPoints:
Relativelystrongemploymentgrowthisbalancedbylimitedreplacementdemandasthe
workforce
is
quite
young.
Thereisariskofrecruitingdifficultiesinspecializedareas.
Overallmarketsbalanceoncetherecoveryhassettledintotrendratesofgrowthlaterinthe
scenario.
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1500
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)
Excess
Supply Excess
Supply
as
a
%
of
Trend
Employment
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
51/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 51
AllOther
Engineers Canada
ExhibitA9.1AllOtherEngineers,Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Thiscategoryincludesmining,geological,metallurgicalandmaterialsandotherengineers.
Employmentinallotherengineeringoccupationsisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentin
manufacturing,governmentservicesandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices
(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industries.
Sharpdeclinein2009,resumesgrowthinlinewithinvestmentinprofessional,scientificand
managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry.
Employmentinthisoccupationlastreachedapeakintheearly1990sandthislevelwasonly
passedin2006.
Overallgrowthacrossthescenarioforthisgroupisequaltotheaverageforallengineering
occupations.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index20
07=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth All
OtherEngineers
OtherEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing GovernmentServices
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
52/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 52
ExhibitA9.2AllOtherEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply Side Measures- All Other
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
1019 1031 1009 1147
Immigrants** 550 555 574 530
Replacement Demand (#)*** 449 168 162 208
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.4 1.7 1.7 2.4
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Graduatesfrom
Canadian
post
secondary
programs
traditionally
exceed
immigration
as
a
sourceofentrants.
Immigration(mostlypermanent)peakedin2001,laterthanotherengineeringgroups,and
hasbeendecliningsince.
Decliningimmigrationsince2001hasexceededthegainingraduations;leavingadropinthe
availableworkforce.
Relianceonthedomesticworkforceisassociatedwithanolderageprofile.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
53/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 53
ExhibitA9.3AllOtherEngineers,Canada
Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Excesssupplyincreasedin2008and2009asemploymentfellandsupplyremainedlargely
unchanged.
Strongemploymentrecoveryfrom2010to2012iscoveredbyatemporarygainin
graduations.
Thiscategory
contains
several
distinct
occupations
and
rates
of
excess
supply
for
individual
occupationsmaydifferwidelyfromtheoverallresult.
ExhibitA9.4AllOtherEngineers,Canada
Labour MarketRankings
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Other 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3
KeyPoints:
Sustained higherlevelsofgraduationsandtrendgrowthinemploymentcombineto
balancemarkets.
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1000
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Percent
ExcessSupply
CanadaOtherEngineers
ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
54/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 54
Theageprofilefortheseoccupationsishigherthanaverageforengineersandthiswillmake
recruitingfor
experienced
engineers
more
difficult.
Rankingsforalltheseoccupationstogethermayconcealimportantmarketdifferences
amongindividualgroups.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
55/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 55
TotalEngineers Canada
ExhibitA10.1
Total
Engineers,
Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.5%,abovethe
averagegrowthoftotalCanadianemployment.
ThissignalsamoderateincreaseintheproportionofengineersintheCanadianworkforce
andthisisdue,inthescenario,totherelativelystronggrowthinengineeringintensive
industries.
Themajordriversforengineeringemploymentareinvestmentandoutputingovernment,
manufacturingandtheprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(including
engineeringconsultingservices)industries.
Ledbyregulargainsinthebigthreeoccupations(civil,mechanicalandelectrical)andrecent
additionsofcomputerengineers,employmentreachedanalltimehighin2008.
Thedeclinein2009waslinkedtotherecessionandgrowthresumesinlinewithinvestment
inprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting
services)industryin2010.
Thestrongestcyclicalgrowthinemploymentisrelatedtotheexpectedrecoveryin
manufacturing.Thisrecovery:
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Index2007=100
IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth
TotalEngineers
AllEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial
Manufacturing OtherIndustries
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
56/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 56
o Drivesemploymentandtightensmarketsforindustrialandmanufacturing
engineers
and
aerospace,
but
employmentlevelsonlyslowlyregainpeaklevelsachievedinthelate1990s
orinthemiddleofthisdecade.
Whereemploymentgrowthissustainedabovethetrendgrowthintheeconomy,itis
associatedwiththeadaptationofnewtechnologies(e.g.manufacturingandcomputer
engineering)ortheadditionofmajorprojectactivity(e.g.utilityconstruction).
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
57/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 57
ExhibitA10.2 TotalEngineers,Canada
Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Total Engineers
2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)
Graduates Entering the LabourForce*
8016 8133 7034 8254
Immigrants** 6447 5306 5395 5472
Replacement Demand (#)*** 3196 3450 3358 4004
Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***
2.0 1.6 1.6 2.1
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms
**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants
***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality
KeyPoints:
Thesteady
decline
in
permanent
immigration
has
been
partly
offset
by
temporary
foreign
workersbuttheoverallcontributionofnonCanadianstotheworkforcehasdeclined.
SteadyoverallgrowthingraduationsfromCEABprogramshasovertakenimmigrationand
nowcontributesthemajorityofnewengineers.
Over2.0%oftheworkforcewillretire;leaveengineeringoccupationsacrossthescenario.
Replacingtheselosseswithnewgraduateswillaggravatethecurrentdifficultiesrecruiting
experiencedengineersinmostmarkets.
-
8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010
58/134
Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018
Prism Economics and Analysis 58
ExhibitA10.3TotalEngineers, Canada
Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis
KeyPoints:
Therecessiontemporarilyraisedexcesssupplybutrecoveryisstron