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Energy Transition Approach: ultimate challenge for Sweden Stockholm, 13 May 2014
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The Global Energy Transition
has reached the tipping point
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Through development stagePre-development stage
Renewables
Decentralized
Bottom-up
Fossil
Centralized
Top-down
Time
Sustainable Energy System
We are here
Tipping Point
Transition to Sustainable Energy
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Tipping Point Phase
chaos
conflicts
battlefield
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Chaos & Turbulence
3 years ago: nuclear renaissance by now: nuclear pathwork
5 years ago: US largest importer of gas by now: US exporter of gas to Europe
4 years ago: price of solar panels high by now: price of solar panels 60% lower
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Old Order & New Order old fossil order
– shale gas and unconventional oil in the United States – surplus of cheap coal to Europe
huge CO2-emissons and environmental pollution
new renewable order– China is the big motor behind ‘clean tech’– China plays double role, big investments in fossil fuels
still small, but fastly growing
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Global Energy Battle Field
Obama
“ The country that will dominate the clean tech economy
will be the country that will dominate the world economy
and America needs to be that country ”
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global economy around ‘clean tech industry’
fastest growing industry in the world
2012: 300 billion dollar (30% growth t.o.v. 2011)
China 60 billion Germany 45 billionAmerica 40 billionItaly 17 billionNetherlands 5 billion
Clean Tech Economy is ‘booming’
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Global Energy Transition
not driven by
scarcity, climate, environment
but driven by
geo-political forces, power shifts, prices
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The European Energy Transition
is in a lock-in situation
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no vision and no strategy
other global world power blocks are pro-active
Europe is not on a route to energy-autonomy
Europe does not have a clear strategy
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Germany is the absolute frontrunner in clean energy
influences the energy price in other countries
more and more big power plants are closed
each country has its own energy strategy
Europe is divided
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Europe is forced by Russia
to develop an energy strategy
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time of easily exploitable resources is over
17 critical earth metals become scarcescandium, neodymium, dysprosium, gadolinium, lanthanum
windmills, electric cars, solar panels, smartphones
expected growth of these metals is > 1000%
China owns 97%
China Resources Strategy
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new economy of crucial importance for Europein potency 22 million Europeans involved
in 2013: 2-4% of total employment
in 2020: 5-10% of total employment
Germany and Denmark are frontrunners
Emerging Clean Economy in Europe
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3 out of 5 energy companiesdie out in tipping point phase
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Survival of the Fittest
not the biggest energy companies survive,
also not the smartest, but the most adaptive
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Energy has become too important
to leave to the market only
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energy wende is most radical innovation in Europe
rooted in a broad social movement since 1970s
political leadership of crucial importance
substantive polical influence of Green party
consistent innovation policy: feed-in
Germany
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4.5% renewable energy production
energy transition plan: 14% renewable energy in 2020
strong fossil energy regime dominated by gas
gas fields empty in 15 years, no plan B yet
in 2030 fossil free is technically possible
Netherlands
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twitter.com/janrotmans
6 ministeriesInvloedrijke personenuit de energiesector
(Ministerie van EZ)
SENTER NOVEM
TRANSITION-PROJECTS
platform-secretaries
TaskforceEnergy Transition
PLATFORMSUSTAINABLEAMEMOBILITY
UKR-support
frontrunnersoffice
PLATFORMGREENRESOURCESFEN
PLATFORMCHAIN-EFFIICENCY
PLATFORMSUSTAINABLEDUURZAMEELEKTRIC.
PLATFORMBUILTENVIRONMENTG
PLATFORMNEW GAS
26 transitionpathways-paden
1long termvisiop visie
600transitionexperiments
PLATFORMGREENHE.SOURCE
IPE Bureaucratic Support
6 Ministries
InterdepartementaleProgram directionEnergy transition
Energy Transition Institutionalised
7 transition platformsthema’s
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48% sustainable energy production
32% bioenergy 16% hydropower
30% oil 13% nuclear5% coal
hardly any wind & solar energy production
good sustainable performance but good starting point
Sweden
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faces a profound energy transition the coming decades
substitution of nuclear energy from 2020 on
substitution of oil and coal by renewable energy
stimulation of wind- and solar energy
Sweden
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has to make crucial choices next 5 years
Sweden
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How do transitions work?
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Transition fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in societal (sub)system
– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations, actors)
– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms
– practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to bebroken down and new ones need to be built up
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Transition = Power Shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at a small scale level
niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime regime protects itself against this through absorption, assimilation or elimination of niches
transition = regime-change = power shift
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Transition Governance
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challenge the market & mobilize society
Transition Governance
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long-term thinking & short-term action
Transition Governance
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Transition Governance
create innovation spaces for radical innovation
bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces
develop a vision and agenda for radical innovation
start portfolio of transition experiments
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Radical Innovation• is disruptive innovation
• is aimed at fundamental, radical change
• is complementary to incremental innovation
• arises from new combinations of businesses
• system innovation = radical innovation
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Transition Governance Cycle
vision, pathways,transition agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring learning
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Transition Arena- long term- front runners- system innovation- problem / goal seraching
Different Arenas
Political Arena- short / medium term- peloton - incremental changes - problem- and goal oriented
Market Arena- short term- efficiency- profit / growth
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Transition Arena
– protected but not closed innovation network
– dynamic learning network
– 10-15 participants, mainly frontrunners
– from society, business, government, science, NGOs
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Transition Governance
1st phase searching, learning, experimenting
2nd phase selecting, scaling up
3rd phase implementation in policy process
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Organic Steering
vision, action, strategy
demands patience, time, trust
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Transition Governance
practised in
European countriesNetherlands, Belgium, France, Scotland, Switzerland, Austria, Finland
Outside Europe Japan, Australia, Canada
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Transition Governance
application domains
energy
mobility
food health care city
development
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Facilitating Role of Goverment
giving direction
&
providing space
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Giving Direction
giving direction
clear and ambitious goals
sound rules of the game
fine-tuning developments in coherence
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Providing Space innovation space mental space, juridical space, organisational
space
removing barriers
stimulating odd coalitions
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Pro-active Role of Companies
leadership
&
new coalitions
allies between big companies & small / medium enterprises
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NGOs as Connectors
frontrunners pave the way
connectors form coalitions
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What does it mean for Sweden?
develop a long term vision for biobased economy
formulate a variety of transition pathwaysbiofibers, bioenergy, bio-ICT, bio-built environment, biopharmaceuticals
start portfolio of radical bio-innovation experiments
scale up most successful bio-experiments
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Insights• energy transition is in a tipping point phase
• demands governance approach between market & state
• requires vision, strategy and action in one
• demands facilitating role of government
• demands pro-active leading role of companies
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Is Sweden ripe for an energy transition governance approach?